DR549

Top Ten Swimmers of 2011

2012-01-15T13:16:00.004-05:00

2011 has come to a close, and 2012 has begun, but I still have to reveal my top-ten swimmers of 2011. Inspired by Speed Endurance’s top-51 rankings, I will do the same, but I am only going to take a look at the top-ten swimmers I saw this year. In general, my list is similar to Tom Willdridge, with nine of the same ten swimmers, but some changes in order reflect my different criteria for picking my swimmers. My list is almost entirely dependent on performances at the World Championships in Shanghai, while other international competitions will hold some weight, and times posted elsewhere will have minimal significance.

Check out the Speed Endurance top-51 lists, and compare that top-ten to mine!
No. 51 – No. 42
No. 41 – No. 32
No. 31 – No. 22
No. 21 – No. 11
No. 10 – No. 1

10. Cesar Cielo, Brazil
Cielo had a nice bounce-back year after losing both the 50 and 100 free at Pan Pacs to Nathan Adrian. Although he did not know if he’d even be able to swim at Worlds until the week before, he came to Shanghai ready to get down the pool fast. While his times in the 50 fly and 50 free were not his best, he still obliterated everyone else. Cielo has put himself into ideal position to chase his second-consecutive Olympic title in the 50 free, having not lost an important race since 2008. He finished fourth in the 100 free before posting a 47.84 at the Pan Ams. Holding on for the full 100 has been a challenge since the tech suits were banned, but Cielo made big progress towards that mark in 2011.

9. Dana Vollmer, USA
Dana Vollmer fits in at number nine on both my list and that of Speed Endurance. Vollmer started things off right for the U.S. team at Worlds. She swam under 57 and almost beat her own American record in prelims before putting up a stellar 56.47 in semi-finals and edging Alicia Coutts for the gold in the final. Less than two hours after that 56.47, Vollmer swam the anchor leg for the silver medal-winning U.S. 400 free relay, and later in the week, she sealed the deal for the medley relay and setting up a new American record. She leads Team USA again into 2012.

8. Federica Pellegrini, Italy
Again, I agree with Tom on the number eight pick. Pellegrini raced tough in Shanghai, obliterating Rebecca Adlington and Camille Muffat for the win in the 400 free and the first textile swim under 4:02. Despite holding the world record and reigning as the World and Olympic champion, she went into the final of the 200 free as a clear underdog behind Femke Heemskerk. Swimming from the back of the pack, Pellegrini overtook a fading Heemskerk for the win. She will face tough challenges at the Olympics, especially in the 200 free, but she proved in 2011 that she is clutch.

7. Alexander Dale Oen, Norway
Dale Oen led qualifiers going into the final of the 100 breast in Shanghai, but many still considered him an underdog to Kosuke Kitajima. The two-time Olympic champion, Kitajima had edged Dale Oen for the top time in the world in 2010. In the final, Dale Oen jumped out to a huge lead and won in 58.71, falling just short of Brenton Rickard’s world record of 58.71. The media lauded Dale Oen for winning at a time when Norway had been devastated with attacks of terrorism. Dale Oen’s swim was so impressive that he swam slower in the 50 breast then his opening split in the 100 breast. Illness derailed chances at another gold in the 50 breast and forced him to withdraw from the 200 breast.

6. James Magnussen, Australia
This young sprinter from down under started off the year with some fireworks, posting a 48.29 in the 100 free at his National championships, shocking the entire swimming community. Still, he was an outside shot for a medal, at best, in Shanghai, until he came down with pneumonia in the weeks before the meet. By that point, no one expected much from him, and I had even heard rumors that he would withdraw from the meet. The last thing anyone expected was a 47.49 lead-off leg in the 400 free relay. After leading Australia to gold there, Magnussen carved up the individual 100 free field to secure another gold and almost ran down Nathan Adrian in the medley relay, earning Aussie silver. Magnussen enters 2012 as the clear favorite for the Olympic gold in the 100 free, but questions still remain as to his Olympic ambitions in the 50 free and on Australia’s 800 free relay. Despite talking up his 200 potential, he has done nothing to prove that he is a legitimate threat to help Australia earn a medal in that relay. So far, his only true successes have been in the 100.

5. Rebecca Soni, USA
Soni has been the model of consistency over the past two years, dominating her stroke unlike anyone else in the world has over that span. She has not lost a 200 breast since the 2009 Worlds, and has only lost one 100 breast long course during that time period. This year, she was almost than a second in front of Jessica Hardy in the world rankings in the 100 breast and had even more of a cushion in the 200 breast. She has consistently thrown down lights-out times in-season and backed it up in the big meets. She also provided a key leg for the dominating U.S. women’s medley relay in Shanghai. Over the past few years, though, Soni has had one goal in mind: win Olympic gold and break world records. This is the year when she can pull it off.

4. Michael Phelps, USA
People criticized the greatest of all time. I said that Phelps wouldn’t be ready for Shanghai. But at that meet, Michael Phelps showed some clutch in winning four golds, two silvers, and a bronze. Many predicted that Phelps wouldn’t medal in the 200 free, but he jumped out fast and held off the likes of Paul Biedermann and Park Tae Hwan for the silver medal. They said he would lose the 200 fly, an event which he hadn’t lost for nearly a decade, but he blasted past Takeshi Matsuda on the final lap for the win. They said he couldn’t challenge Ryan Lochte in the 200 IM, but he went all the way to the finish and beat his best time from the 2008 Olympics. The American relays leaned on the efforts of Michael Phelps. Quite a performance for someone not at peak form. Phelps has swam great since those Worlds, and he is building up to a grand finale this summer.

3. Missy Franklin, USA
Missy was the biggest surprise of 2011. Earning a spot on the U.S. 400 free relay in prelims, she blasted a 52.99 split in the final to give the Americans a chance against the Netherlands. On day five, however, she moved into the world’s limelight. After a stunning bronze medal in the 50 back, Franklin led off the 800 free relay in 1:55.06, by far the top time of the year, on the way to a relay gold. Entering the meet as a medal contender in the 200 back, Franklin entered the event as the clear favorite for gold. She twice lowered the American record and swam the third-fastest time ever to win gold. That same day, she anchored Natalie Coughlin, Soni, and Vollmer to a dominating medley relay win. Just days later, Franklin flew to Palo Alto for U.S. Nationals, where she posted the fifth-fastest time in the world in the 100 back and a time that would have won bronze in the 100 free. Perhaps Franklin would be even higher on this list if she had the opportunity to swim more events at Worlds. Look out London.

2. Sun Yang, China
This young Chinese superstar made history in 2011, lowering Grant Hackett’s longstanding world record in the 1500 free with an epic final two laps to come back from two seconds behind world record-pace. I name this swim the undisputed top swim of 2011. Sun also took the gold in the 800 and silver in the 400. Sun went into the 400 free final as the top qualifier but finished well behind Park Tae Hwan for the silver. Despite this, Sun still holds the top two times of the year in the 400 free. His 3:40.29 came up just shy of Biedermann’s 3:40.07 world record. Still, he put that swim up at the wrong time, at Chinese Nationals two months after Worlds. Speed Endurance claims that this swim puts him over the top for number one on this list. I disagree; the best swimmer in the world doesn’t come up short in a World Championships final. Sun Yang has to settle for number two.

1. Ryan Lochte, USA
Ryan Lochte is the top swimmer in the world again this year. Lochte ran down Michael Phelps for a win over the fastest field ever in the 200 free, before edging Phelps two days later in the 200 IM. More importantly, Lochte broke the first world record in the long course pool in 18 months, his 1:54.00 edging the 1:54.10 he swam in 2009 in Rome. He took almost a full second off his personal best in the 200 back to destroy the likes of Ryosuke Irie and Tyler Clary before anchoring the U.S. in a comeback win in the 800 free relay. He finished his week off with a four-second victory in the 400 IM with promise of going much faster next year on the event on the first day instead of the last. Lochte holds a huge edge on the rest of the world in 2012, and while he faces major challenges, particularly in Phelps, expect him to step up and swim better than ever.

The Apogee of Sport

2012-01-11T22:43:00.005-05:00

Surprise; I’m not dead! I’ve been absent from the blog for awhile, but I’m still just as involved in swimming as ever. Swimming is building up to the Olympic climax this summer, but I honestly haven’t felt as if I have had any comments to add to the various conversations as of late. Don’t worry, though; I’m coming back soon with my top ten swimmers of 2011. Inspired by Speed Endurance’s Top-51 list, I will compare my top ten with those that Tom Willdridge picked and explain why I disagree with him for almost every place.

In the meantime, I had one particularly neat experience lately that I would like to share. No, I didn’t go to a swim meet and watch up-and-comers or even Olympians compete, like I have before. On New Years Day, I went to an NFL game between the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys at MetLife Stadium, just outside of New York City. I have family in the area, and the Giants have always been my favorite NFL team, but to get the chance to see them play in person was amazing. This game carried special significance: the winner would win the NFC East division and make the playoffs. The loser was going home.

The game was originally scheduled to be played during the afternoon of January 1, one of 16 games around the country on the slate for the day. With the importance of the matchup, NBC moved the game to prime time, making it the final game of the NFL regular season in real time. Swim fans will see some déjà vu in this situation, after NBC moved the Olympic swimming finals in Beijing to the morning to show them live in prime time in America. For fans, a late start could be a bit obnoxious, but I think it made the experience that much more special. NBC acknowledged that everything was on the line.

Growing up, I always watched the Olympics and loved watching the Olympics. While swimming has always been my favorite sport to watch, each period of two weeks every two years I cannot keep my eyes off of the TV. At the center of NBC’s Olympic coverage for each Games, summer and winter, is Bob Costas. Bob Costas sits at the apex of sports media worldwide. When I walked into MetLife Stadium, across the field sat a black tent; indeed, Bob Costas sat in that tent, anchoring NBC’s Football Night in America on that rainy night. The swim geek in the same arena as Bob Costas. Wow.

The stadium itself is a metal maze, and for this game, it was lit up in blue. 80,000 rowdy fans, dressed in blue and waiving white Giants towels, packed the stadium to create an atmosphere unlike any I have witnessed before. When the Cowboys marched out, boos filled the arena, but the home team ran onto the field amid fireworks and some of the loudest noise imaginable. The energy-packed arena exploded when quarterback Eli Manning threw a 74-yard touchdown pass to Victor Cruz and when the Giants defense forced a Cowboys stop on third or fourth down and especially when Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo threw an interception. The Giants led 21-0 at halftime, but as the Cowboys crawled back into the game, with the score standing at 21-14 with ten minutes left, every Giants fan, including me, felt a nervous feeling in the pit of the stomach.

Fortunately, the Giants held on to win, 31-14, and make it to the playoffs. As a fan, I loved the result, but the experience was something amazing that I cannot forget. A huge stadium with a roaring crowd. Athletes marching out to fireworks. A long season of hard work coming down to one last chance. Nerves, excitement, exuberance, and crushing defeat. All that sports provides coming down to one last shot.

Where can we find this in swimming? The Olympic Trials. This summer in Omaha, eight athletes will march out in 26 unique finals and put it all on the line. Thousands roaring, with millions more glaring at the TV at home in anxiety. Joy and pride for those who make it, leaving those who don’t in tears. A month later, those select few athletes who make it will test themselves against the world’s best, just as the New York Giants must now do in the NFL playoffs. They seek to win a Super Bowl, but each step brings infinitely more challenges, just like the U.S. Olympic Team will face. This summer will highlight the best swimming and sport in general has to offer. Football gets these moments several times a year, but swimming gets its once every four years. Fellow swim geeks, let’s relish those moments. Bring on 2012.

Palmetto Thanksgiving Turkey Invite

2011-11-23T16:49:00.001-05:00

As anyone who regularly reads this blog knows, I don’t write about my own personal swimming experiences a lot. I am passionate about all levels of swimming, but here I like to focus on the top tier of competition and the build-up to next summer’s Olympics. Today, with not much news coming out of the swimming world right now, I am changing gears to discuss a meet I competed in last weekend, the Palmetto Thanksgiving Turkey Invite at the University of South Carolina in Columbia, SC. I came home with a mixed bag of results and some fond memories, including meeting Gamecock star Michael Flach, who is redshirting to train for Olympic Trials. However, five moments stood out as truly amazing.

First, I want to give some context on my swimming career. I swim for the newly-formed LTP Racing Club in Charleston, SC, and I specialize in mid-distance free and backstroke. I have been dropping time consistently for years, but I feel like I had a breakout at my high school State meet two months ago, where I swam 4:57.11 to cut almost 15 seconds off my 500 best time. Last year, I won that race in a 5:11, defeating an extremely talented teammate who was sick at the time. This year, I took a surprising lead at the 100 and held it through the 450, but I ended up second as both my teammate and I broke the previous state record. Another big moment came this summer at my Long Course State Championships, when I made consolation finals in both backstroke races, the first time I had ever earned a second swim at State meet.

Palmetto used an interesting format for a three-day meet, with finals on Saturday only. With my 4:57, I had been seeded into the top heat of the 500 (which would swim with finals), and I also qualified for the A-final in the 100 back. I am a pretty big swim geek (obviously), and I have watched a lot of meets where top athletes get to walk out with music for their championship finals. Never have I gotten such an experience. That is, never until this weekend. When Palmetto’s coach told me that I would get to walk out, I literally went nuts. To use a cliché expression, I felt like a kid in a candy shop. Definitely not behavior that one would normally associate with a 17 year old senior in high school, but for someone who has thus far had a relatively modest career in the pool, it meant a lot to walk out for those finals.

Like with most committed swimmers, I try to be at as many practices as possible, but that doesn’t always pan out. I missed at least a day or two of club practice per week during high school season, and I occasionally have school commitments that don’t allow me to swim. One teammate, however, has literally had perfect attendance the last four months since August 1, when we started back to practice following a week break after our Long Course State Championships. This particular teammate is not the most talented, but he works hard every day, and he is chopping huge chunks in practice and meets. He just aged up to the 13-14 age group, and he did not yet have any State qualifying times when we left for Columbia.

He swam the 1000 free on Friday night, and I was at the end of his lane counting for him and watching splits come up on the scoreboard. I checked the State cut just before the race, and I saw 11:36.49. As the race progressed, he was holding consistent and fast splits, 34-mid to 35-flat per 50, but as he turned for his last 50, I thought he would be just a bit shy of the cut. However, he came home in 32.16 for a final time of 11:36.17. At that point, I screamed so loud that my voice was hoarse for the next couple days. Simply put, that was hard work paying off, and I know how much he deserved that.

Another of my teammates has had a rough road the past few months. She struggled during high school season to do get to a lot of club practices, and she did not drop time in any of her events at a meet two weeks ago in Greenville, SC. Meanwhile, she was struggling outside of the pool and contemplated a break from swimming. At this meet, she had swum some alright races along with others she didn’t want to remember. On Sunday, she swam the 200 free first. From our team’s seating area, I was getting ready for my 200 and watching the scoreboard. I saw her splits, and it was obvious that she was going to go a best time. But she didn’t cut off a couple tenths or even a second. 4.48 seconds. I ran over to the end of the pool, and she had a huge smile from ear-to-ear and gave me a big hug. She no longer has doubts about swimming.

I have two more favorite moments from this weekend, and both involve a friend from Columbia that I met last year through high school swimming. When I won the 500 then, he finished third in 5:13.82. He then played basketball during short course season, spending less time in the water and swimming at only one meet. During long course, he kept coming up short of State qualifying times, but he assumed that he would be able to use a qualifying time for the 1500 before realizing just two weeks before that the cut had expired. He did not swim at Long Course State, and he had a rough high school season as well, finishing third again in the 500 but going as slow as 5:15.

He also swam at the meet this weekend, and, as he was not in my heat for the 500, I watched. As always, he took the race out hard, and I kept a close eye on his splits. His best time was still that 5:13.82 from high school State more than a year earlier. As he was about to finish, I ran behind his lane, watching the scoreboard closely. His time: 5:13.75. A year of struggling and forced patience finally behind, he finally cleared the barrier of going a best time in the 500 free, and I couldn’t have been happier for him. He still does not have his State cut, but he is tapering for a meet in Greensboro next month, and I’m confident he will get it there.

The final event of the meet was the 400 IM, and this same friend and I were both up to swim. Before that, I had only swum one 400 IM, when I went 4:51 last month. The State cut was a 4:47.99, and, despite throwing away my chance at a cut in the 200 free minutes before, I was very confident I could get down to that mark. My friend, meanwhile, was going for his first State cut in more than two years. I swam first, and he joined my teammates in rooting hard for me. I touched the wall in 4:45.15 and pumped my fists. I then dealt with a mob of excited teammates and my friend attacking me.

Two heats later, my friend was on the blocks. Having not swum this race short course in years, he easily disposed of his competitors, and I had my eyes glued to the scoreboard. He and I are at about the same level in butterfly and freestyle, and I am faster in backstroke, but I am truly awful at breaststroke, and he is far better. He took the race out fast and outsplit me on every 50 for the first 300. Usually, I don’t like losing to him, but I was so excited. He touched in 4:40.09, and I was congratulating him before he could look at the scoreboard. He will be at State meet, and that moment was just awesome.

Obviously, for some people, these moments from a small swim meet would seem insignificant, and even in the grand scheme of this season, they probably are. However, swimming for me is about more than personal improvement or goals; rather, I live for those memories of watching my friends go best times and get their first State cuts and overcome their frustrations. Each season in swimming is a journey, and those moments are little reminders interspliced throughout months of training that make everything worth it. I love swimming, and I love when other people love swimming too.

The Ian Thorpe Comeback Begins

2011-10-29T19:13:00.000-04:00

Next weekend, Ian Thorpe will make his long-awaited comeback at the Singapore stop of the World Cup. The swimming community has awaited this moment since whispers of a Thorpe comeback started popping up in the spring of 2010. Thorpe quickly denied such rumors, but the publicity never went away, and Thorpe stepped up to announce his intentions on February 2, 2011. However, due to FINA rules, Thorpe had to wait nine months before he could race once more, and that waiting period expires this week, just before Thorpe steps up once again. Supposedly focusing on the 100 and 200 free in his comeback, abandoning his former “baby” the 400 free, Thorpe surprised many when he announced his entries for the Singapore meet – the 100 IM and 100 fly!

In his previous incarnation as a mid-distance legend, Thorpe simply dominated freestyle races. This blog won’t list all of medals he’s won; check out his accomplishments on his Wikipedia page. In short, Thorpe burst out onto the international scene at age 15 with his win in the 400 free at the 1998 World Championships, eating away Grant Hackett’s huge lead to record a narrow triumph at the finish. From that point, Thorpe dominated world swimming and remained the undisputed best swimmer in the world for five years. No one dreamed of matching his accomplishments.

When Thorpe swam at the 2003 World Championships in Barcelona, however, he found himself overshadowed. An 18 year old from Baltimore had stolen the limelight, setting world records in each of the individual events he swam. For that meet, Thorpe elected to add the 200 IM to his regular program of events. Weeks before Barcelona, Phelps had lowered an eight year old world record of 1:58.16 to 1:57.94 at the Santa Clara Grand Prix. In the second of two semi-final heats, Phelps swam from lane four and lowered the record again, this time to 1:57.52, while Thorpe swam out in lane eight and snuck into the final as the fifth qualifier. The next day, Phelps stepped up, having just set a new world record in the 100 fly semi-finals, to race Thorpe for the first time head-to-head in a major final.

Saying that Phelps owned this race is an understatement. Thorpe won silver, 3.5 seconds behind, setting an Australian record that would last until the 2009 World Championships, where Leith Brodie destroyed that mark in a polyurethane suit. Thorpe would never swim this race again in a major competition, focusing on the freestyle events at the 2004 Olympics and retiring a couple years later, having never again swum in a major competition. Now, he returns to the World Cup to swim events he has never even swum on the major stage!

When I read about Thorpe’s Singapore surprise, I assumed that he was merely using the two off-events to tune up and get back into racing without much pressure. He would then build off those performances when he swam the same two events at the Beijing stop before adding the 100 free for the final stop in Tokyo, taking baby steps towards his goal of qualifying in the freestyle events, at least in relays, for the London Olympics. However, an article written by Geoff Huegill, he explored for the first time the possibility that Thorpe might be preparing to take the 100 fly seriously. In this article posted by the Herald Sun, Huegill noted that Gennadi Touretski, the man responsible for Alexander Popov and now training Thorpe, has a tendency to train swimmers for fly and shows a bit of anxiety at the prospect of taking on Thorpe in that event at Australia’s Olympic Trials.

Huegill’s words reminded me of Thorpe’s one excursion into the butterfly and IM, his race with Phelps in Barcelona. In that race, he stayed surprisingly close to Phelps on the fly, especially considering that Phelps set world records in both butterfly events at that meet. His backstroke was solid (Thorpe did win silver in the Commonwealth Games in the 100 back in 2002), and breaststroke lost him a lot of ground to the other silver medal contenders, such as Massi Rosolino. A 1:59 is no longer a competitive time on the world stage, but a 100 IM in short course will do a better job hiding his weakness on breaststroke. In the 100 fly, he could challenge Huegill’s times from the World Cup stops last week in Europe, which would legitimately open the door for him in the 100 fly down the line.

My expectations for Thorpe in the 100 fly and 100 IM have risen, and I’m looking forward to seeing how he handles the world stage. His 100 fly could get to the point where he steps up with a legitimate shot at London, and the Australian Olympic Trials would feature three legends in Thorpe, Huegill, and Michael Klim (though by no means do I think Thorpe or Klim will have an easy time getting past Australia’s new generation of flyers). However, if Thorpe falls flat in his 100 fly and 100 IM, fans have nothing to worry; Thorpe came back to race freestyle, and I believe that in freestyle, he will qualify to swim in the London Olympics.

Fran Crippen: One Year Later

2011-10-23T13:51:00.002-04:00

On January 3, I posted a blog discussing the long-lasting mark Fran Crippen left on our sport. The world remembers Crippen as an amazing swimmer and caring man, as his sister Claire discussed on Friday’s edition of the Morning Swim Show. He was a fierce competitor and a favorite to make the U.S. Olympic team in Open Water for 2012. When the top Open Water swimmers arrived in Fort Lauderdale for the National Championships this June, Crippen’s absence created a major hole in the competition. The top two finishers at that meet would earn berths for the World Championships in Shanghai and a chance to make the London Olympics, as the top ten from that meet automatically qualified.

In Fort Lauderdale, Eva Fabian and Christine Jennings earned the women’s spots bound for Shanghai. Both swam in that same race in Dubai in which Crippen lost his life, and neither finished the race, as both ended up in the hospital suffering from dehydration. On the men’s side, Alex Meyer and Sean Ryan qualified for the World Championships. Meyer, especially, had a connection to Crippen. Months after Crippen turned around to help Meyer to shore when the latter became ill during the 10k at Pan Pacs, Meyer led the search for Crippen’s body when his friend failed to finish in Dubai.

In Shanghai, Fabian and Jennings both failed to make the cut for the Olympic team, but the next day, Meyer finished in fourth place in the men’s race, earning himself a ticket to London. Afterwards, Meyer stated that while he would have liked Ryan to qualify to make it two Americans headed to London, he believed the second spot needed to remain open for Crippen, demonstrating the impact Crippen made on American Open Water swimming. That impact spread to the pool; at both the 2010 Short Course and 2011 Long Course World Championships, the American team wore the letters “FC” on their warm-up jackets.

When I last wrote about Fran Crippen, I discussed the impact Fran had on the formation of my new swim team, the LTP Racing Club. My coach swam with Fran at the University of Virginia and stayed in contact in the years following. He used a quote from Fran on the back of our first team t-shirts. Fran’s connection with the team goes deeper; he died the very same day as the team swam its very first meet. Since then, he has been our inspiration, our inspiration to keep dreaming and keep pushing towards new heights in and out of the pool, and our inspiration to honor him on the one-year anniversary of his death.

In Claire Crippen’s interview on Friday, she spoke of the week after Fran died. At that point, she swam for Virginia, while Teresa continues to swim at Florida. Back at home almost immediately, both realized just two days later that Fran would have wanted them back in the pool, and Tuesday morning, a mere 72 hours following Fran’s death, the two went to practice at Germantown Academy with their old coach Richard Shoulberg. After Fran’s death, the two had expressed doubts about continuing their swimming careers, but Fran’s passion and excitement for swimming encouraged them to get back in the water and keep striving towards their goals, Claire towards her final ACC Championships and NCAA Champions and Teresa towards the World Championships, where she made the semi-finals of the 200 fly.

Thus, the memory of Fran Crippen exemplifies the true nature of swimming: passion. This includes the passion to get up at 4:45 in the morning every day all summer to swim; the passion to push passed preconceived limits with sights set on becoming the best swimmer one can be; and the passion to support your friends and teammates after tough races or rough patches in life with the promise of improvement down the road. Whenever passion for swimming may dwindle, look no further for inspiration than Fran Crippen. Fran left behind hopes of a safer sport, one where no athlete will ever again lose his life in competition, and he provides the fuel for Alex Meyer, Teresa Crippen, the LTP Racing Club, and swimmers around the world to live their dreams.

Olympic Trials Predictions

2011-09-18T22:06:00.003-04:00

More than nine months still remain before the 2012 Olympic Trials, but I have already begun thinking about who will leave that meet and head to London on the Olympic Team. As I like to do, I am sharing my early predictions for that meet. Of course, I cannot predict what young swimmers will breakout in the early part of the new year, so I predict a team full of veterans to cross the Atlantic next summer. Here we go.

Women:

50 Free
1. Jessica Hardy
2. Dara Torres

100 Free
1. Missy Franklin
2. Natalie Coughlin
3. Dana Vollmer
4. Jessica Hardy
5. Amanda Weir
6. Kara Lynn Joyce

200 Free
1. Missy Franklin
2. Allison Schmitt
3. Katie Hoff
4. Dana Vollmer
5. Dagny Knutson
6. Morgan Scroggy

400 Free
1. Chloe Sutton
2. Allison Schmitt

800 Free
1. Kate Ziegler
2. Chloe Sutton

100 Back
1. Missy Franklin
2. Natalie Coughlin

200 Back
1. Missy Franklin
2. Elizabeth Beisel

100 Breast
1. Rebecca Soni
2. Jessica Hardy

200 Breast
1. Rebecca Soni
2. Amanda Beard

100 Fly
1. Dana Vollmer
2. Christine Magnuson

200 Fly
1. Kathleen Hersey
2. Teresa Crippen

200 IM
1. Elizabeth Beisel
2. Ariana Kukors

400 IM
1. Elizabeth Beisel
2. Caitlin Leverenz

Men:

50 Free
1. Nathan Adrian
2. Jimmy Feigen

100 Free
1. Nathan Adrian
2. Garrett Weber-Gale
3. Matt Grevers
4. Jason Lezak
5. Jimmy Feigen
6. Dave Walters

200 Free
1. Ryan Lochte
2. Michael Phelps
3. Peter Vanderkaay
4. Ricky Berens
5. Matt McLean
6. Conor Dwyer

400 Free
1. Peter Vanderkaay
2. Matt McLean

1500 Free
1. Chad La Tourette
2. Peter Vanderkaay

100 Back
1. Matt Grevers
2. Nick Thoman

200 Back
1. Ryan Lochte
2. Tyler Clary

100 Breast
1. Brendan Hansen
2. Eric Shanteau

200 Breast
1. Eric Shanteau
2. Brendan Hansen

100 Fly
1. Michael Phelps
2. Tyler McGill

200 Fly
1. Michael Phelps
2. Tyler Clary

200 IM
1. Michael Phelps
2. Ryan Lochte

400 IM
1. Ryan Lochte
2. Tyler Clary

U.S. Nationals: Day Three Predictions

2011-08-04T20:52:00.000-04:00

With the third night of competition about to get underway, I wanted to leave my predictions headed into the five finals to be contested tonight.

Women's 100 Breast
1. Jessica Hardy
2. Annie Chandler
3. Ashley Wanland

Men's 100 Fly
1. Tyler McGill
2. Tim Phillips
3. Davis Tarwater

Women's 50 Free
1. Lara Jackson
2. Kara Lynn Joyce
3. Amanda Weir

Men's 50 Free
1. Nathan Adrian
2. Jimmy Feigen
3. Nick Brunelli

Women's 400 IM
1. Elizabeth Beisel
2. Maya DiRado
3. Teresa Crippen

U.S. Nationals: Day Two

2011-08-03T20:33:00.001-04:00

With the second evening of finals in Palo Alto about to get underway, here are some predictions for the action to come. Look for great racing to be the theme of the night, and I don’t think there is a lock winner in any of the events up for grabs. Without further ado…

The women’s 100 back kicks off the action for the night. Missy Franklin is the world champ in the 200 back and has a best time this year of 59.56. Meanwhile, Elizabeth Pelton made the semi-finals of this event at worlds, while Rachel Bootsma clocked 50.53 in the 100-yard back at NCSA Junior Nationals. And finally, Jenny Connolly upstaged all of them to take the top seed! Should be tight, but Franklin will come out on top.

Prediction:
1. Franklin
2. Pelton
3. Bootsma

Peter Vanderkaay goes into the final of the men’s 200 free as an overwhelming favorite after finishing fourth in the 400 free at Worlds last week and clocking 1:46.07 on the U.S. men’s victorious 800 free relay in Shanghai. Ricky Berens, another member of that relay, is in the field, as is NCAA runner-up Dax Hill and 400 free champ Matt McLean. The final will have some University of Virginia flavor to it, as three swimmers who swam for the Cavaliers this year will take to the blocks: McLean, Scot Robison, and Peter Geissenger.

Prediction:
1. Vanderkaay
2. McLean
3. Berens

Olympic silver medalist Matt Grevers qualified first for the men’s 100 back final in 53.96, but 200 back World and Olympic champ Ryan Lochte is right behind him at 54.00. Grevers touched out Lochte for a spot on the Olympic team in this event three years ago, so Lochte will be out for revenge tonight. Look for both to finish in the low-53 range, perhaps even sub-53. Meanwhile, Nick Thoman and David Plummer finished fourth and fifth, respectively, at Worlds last week. The field is a deep one, as always, with the likes of Eugene Godsoe, Ben Hesen, David Russell, and Kyle Owens as threats.

Prediction:
1. Lochte
2. Grevers
3. Thoman

Allison Schmitt is the class of the field in the women’s 200 free, having finished sixth in the event at Worlds last week. She holds the American record in the event at 1:54.96. Dagny Knutson joined Schmitt on the winning 800 free relay at Worlds last week, while Schmitt’s University of Georgia teammates Megan Romano, Chelsea Nauta, and Shannon Vreeland will challenge from the top three lanes. The surprise of the morning, however, was Lauren Perdue; Perdue cut more than a second from her seed time to qualify second in 1:59.29. Perdue will be the one who goes out fast and tries to hang on, just like she did at NCAAs, where she ended up finishing second to Schmitt.

Prediction:
1. Schmitt
2. Perdue
3. Knutson

The men’s 200 fly is a wide open affair tonight in the absence of World champion Michael Phelps. Tyler Clary finished ninth at World Championships, while Dan Madwed and Davis Tarwater both snuck under 1:58 for the top two seeds. Clary and Tarwater have by far the top two best times in this event of the field, 1:53.64 and 1:54.46, both from the suit era. Meanwhile, Mark Dylla and Bobby Bollier finished second and fourth, respectively, in this race last year. However, I think Clary will take this title and prove that he is one of America’s top two 200 butterflyers, even after his Shanghai disappointment.

Prediction:
1. Clary
2. Tarwater
3. Madwed

U.S. Nationals: Day One

2011-08-02T18:46:00.000-04:00

The FINA World Championships ended just two days ago in Shanghai, but America’s best swimmers are already assembled at Stanford University for the ConocoPhillips USA Swimming National Championships. Five days of prelims/finals racing await the top swimmers in the country, with slots for the Pan American Games and World Junior Championships up for grabs. Right now I will take a look at the six National titles up for grabs tonight and who will be in the mix to earn those titles.

The meet kicks off with the women’s 100 fly, and Dana Vollmer is in the field. Last week, she clocked an American record-time of 56.47 and a relay split of 55.74. She also won the world title. Basically, she’s the overwhelming favorite. She clocked 57.68 in prelims and said on Twitter today that her goal for finals is a sub-57 swim. However, Olympic silver medalist Christine Magnuson is the three-time defending champion and will not go down without a fight. Magnuson did not swim especially well at Worlds or in prelims, so look for Olympian Elaine Breeden to challenge, as well as Western Kentucky’s Claire Donahue, who earned the second seed this morning in 58.91.

Prediction:
1. Vollmer
2. Magnuson
3. Donahue

The men’s 400 free should be a doozy tonight. Peter Vanderkaay has won this title three of the last four years, but he scratched out of this race after finishing fourth at World Champs last week. In his absence, Charlie Houchin led prelims with an impressive 3:48.03, faster than he swam at the World Champs last week. Matt McLean and Matt Patton both broke 3:50 as well, while defending runner-up Michael Klueh looms in fourth place. Look for Klueh to put the burners on tonight and make a run at Houchin. This final has some young blood in it, with the likes of Jackson Wilcox, Michael McBroom, Sean Ryan, Evan Pinion, Andrew Gemmell, and Connor Jaeger.

Prediction:
1. Houchin
2. Klueh
3. McLean

Katie Hoff and Elizabeth Beisel stand well clear of the pack in the women’s 200 IM after prelims, but the star of last week’s Worlds is in the field as well: Missy Franklin. Hoff and Beisel clocked respective times of 2:11.68 and 2:11.85, while Franklin won the slowest of the seeded heats in 2:14.80. I expect all three to be in the 2:10-range tonight, maybe better. Also watch Stanford’s Julia Smit, who put together a fourth-ranked 2:13.33 in prelims, but she has a lifetime best of 2:09.37 from the suit era. Two more World teamers, Morgan Scroggy and Teresa Crippen, qualified for this final, but neither impressed last week in Shanghai or made any championship finals.

Prediction:
1. Beisel
2. Franklin
3. Hoff

For me, the most anticipated race of the night and possibly of the meet is the men’s 100 breast. 2004 Olympic silver medalist Brendan Hansen is back, and he proved it in prelims with a top-ranked time of 1:00.17, the top time by an American since techsuits were banned two years ago. In fact, no American other than Hansen has ever been faster in a jammer. He should win tonight, and anything under 1:00 will set him up very well for next year. Meanwhile, Mike Alexandrov qualified second in 1:00.70, much faster than his 1:01.41 at Worlds which left him 25th, while Marcus Titus finished third in prelims in 1:00.80. American record-holder Eric Shanteau also made this final, while World Champs finals Mark Gangloff scratched.

Prediction:
1. Hansen
2. Shanteau
3. Alexandrov

Four members of the World Championships team made the final in the women’s 400 free: Chloe Sutton, Allison Schmitt, Elizabeth Beisel, and Dagny Knutson. Sutton finished ninth in this event in Shanghai before finishing fourth in the 800 free, while Schmitt took sixth in the 200 free. These two should enter as favorites for tonight. The pair finished third and second, respectively, behind Katie Hoff in last year’s final. Ashley Steenvoorden clocked a lifetime best time of 4:09.16 to lead all qualifiers into the final, but expect Sutton to pick up the pace and win tonight’s final in a 4:06.

Prediction:
1. Sutton
2. Schmitt
3. Beisel

The men’s 400 IM will bring the night to a close. Andrew Gemmell qualified for his second final of the night with a top-ranked time of 4:18.33, followed closely by Conor Dwyer (4:18.75) and Robert Margalis (4:19.01). Jack Brown and Tyler Harris also got under the 4:10 barrier to qualify fourth and fifth, respectively, while NCAA Champion Bill Cregar qualified ninth to earn a berth in the ten-man final. Most of the contenders are known for their back half push in the breaststroke and freestyle legs, so this race won’t be decided until the last 50. Look for Austen Thompson to take the race out hard and try to hang on.

Prediction:
1. Dwyer
2. Margalis
3. Gemmell

Also tonight, the pros from SwimMAC Carolina take to the blocks in the men’s 400 free relay. Line-ups have not yet been released, but look for the likes of Nick Brunelli, Josh Schneider, Cullen Jones, Davis Tarwater, Eugene Godsoe, and Tim Phillips to make a splash. Should be an exciting first night of competition in Palo Alto! Check out live results from the meet here or here, and you can watch live video at USASwimming.org and also at Universal Sports.

Shanghai 2011: Day Eight

2011-07-31T15:10:00.001-04:00

The 14th edition of the FINA World Championships came to a close today in Shanghai, and the American team walked away with top honors. The Stars and Stripes posted double bookends on this final day of competition. Jessica Hardy and Ryan Lochte won the women’s 50 breast and men’s 400 IM, respectively. Elizabeth Beisel picked up steam in the penultimate event, the women’s 400 IM, before Nathan Adrian held off James Magnussen for an American win in the men’s medley relay. Additionally, Sweden’s Therese Alshammar made up for a disappointing loss in the 50 fly yesterday with a world title in the women’s 50 free before Liam Tancock earned Britain’s second gold of the week in an upset over France’s Camille Lacourt in the men’s 50 back.

In the most thrilling race of the night, China’s Sun Yang took down the oldest record in the books in the men’s 1500 free. Grant Hackett set the previous mark of 14:34.56 a full decade ago, and only this mark among men’s records survived the supersuit era. Sun took the lead from the outset but was already behind world record pace at the 100. However, he held his pace at two seconds above world record pace the entire race. When he flipped at the 1400 mark, he turned on the jets. He closed in a monster 25.94, faster even than any closing 50 in the 200, 400 or 800 free! And it was enough; Sun touched in 14:34.14, the fastest time ever.

All in all, an excellent week in Shanghai. There were some surprises, such as the tie in the women’s 100 free between Aliaksandra Herasimenia and Jeanette Ottesen, while some results stayed the same, such as in the men’s 200 fly, where Michael Phelps won his fifth World title in the event, the most ever. Beyond Sun’s world record today, China won five gold medals in the pool this week, clearly establishing them as the second-best team in the world. Comparatively, the usually-strong Australians won just two gold medals, both on the back of sprint star James Magnussen, while the formerly-premier Australian women did not win any races. The British team also looked weak most of the week but came around with two gold medals on the last two days to gain valuable momentum headed into a home Olympics next year.

The Americans, however, really dominated this meet. The women, winner of just two golds in Beijing and Rome, won eight here. Led by 16 year old superstar Missy Franklin and breaststroke queen Rebecca Soni, they took relay golds on the global stage for the first time in four years. They won golds in back, breast, free, and IM and as high as silver in free. It looks like the only weak spots are sprint to mid-distance free; no American finished higher than sixth in the 50, 100, 200, and 400 free. I picked Natalie Coughlin, Allison Schmitt, and Katie Hoff to medal in those events, but all fell off the fast pace required. Those swimmers and others will need to make big improvements to be factors in London next summer.

On the men’s side, the Americans looked great in the IM and butterfly races, and Peter Vanderkaay and Chad La Tourette answered some of the questions over the American distance program, though neither medaled. Americans did not overwhelm in backstroke and breaststroke events this week (other than a 1-3 finish in the 200 back), but with U.S. Nationals coming up this week, we will get a better idea of what is to expect in the those events in the next year. Again, problems showed in the sprint events; coming off a tough year, Nathan Adrian surprisingly failed to medal in either the 50 or 100 free, neither Cullen Jones (50 free) and Jason Lezak (100 free) advanced to the semi-finals of their respective races.

Most importantly, however, the Americans came in third in the 400 free relay. Michael Phelps, Garrett Weber-Gale, Jason Lezak, and Adrian all posted slower-than-expected times to come in behind an on-fire team from Down Under and the solid French. Again, we will find out more at Nationals when former relay members such as Matt Grevers take to the blocks, but the American sprinters will once again need to take their game to the next level if they want to return that gold to American waters in that event in London. The big storylines headed into next summer’s Olympics are still developing, but the American goal of bringing this title back to American waters will surely make headlines.

Two final plotlines, however, will stand above all others in the next year: the showdowns between Michael Phelps and Ryan Lochte, and the quest for more world records. Lochte, clearly the better-prepared of the two, earned the upper-hand over Phelps in both the 200 free and 200 IM this week. With both headed into a full year of hard training, both of those races should be fast and furious in a year. Meanwhile, Lochte and Sun Yang have broken the ice of the world record-drought, and more are to come. Maybe we’ll see another record broken at this week’s Nationals, or maybe no mark will fall until London in a year. Regardless, both of these storylines will steal attention of not just swim fans but also mainstream media in the run-up to London.

Finally, the prediction contest results. In case anyone forgot, I am the swim geek.

1. David Rieder 364
2. Matt Salzberg 363
3. Chris DeSantis 339
4. Melissa German 319
4. Braden Keith 319
6. John Liu 310
7. John Lohn 308
8. Jerry Shandrew 302
8. Tom Willdridge 302
10. Kristine Sorenson 288
11. Sebastian Schwenke 228

Shanghai 2011: Day Eight Finals Preview

2011-07-30T20:51:00.002-04:00

The last session of finals is coming up at the 14th FINA World Championships in Shanghai, and after a long week of racing, the end is in sight. With seven more finals on tap for the final night, I’ll do a quick preview of each right now. First up is the women’s 50 breast, where American Jessica Hardy is expected to win gold for the second time, after first taking the title in 2007. She clocked 30.20 in yesterday’s prelims, just off her top-ranked time of 30.17 from May. I think she’ll cruise to the gold here and swim around the 30.03 she posted at Pan Pacs last summer. I don’t think she will get to her world record of 29.80, but I predict she breaks 30. Meanwhile, Rebecca Soni and Yuliya Efimova will battle for the silver, while Aussies Leiston Pickett and Leisel Jones look to break up the trio of Dave Salo-trained swimmers gunning for the medals.

Prediction:
1. Hardy
2. Soni
3. Efimova

Ryan Lochte will go for his fifth gold of the World Championships when he takes to the blocks for the 400 IM. He hasn’t swum many 400 IMs this season, but look for him to put together an awesome swim and lead the world rankings for the third consecutive year. I think he will sneak under Michael Phelps’ Championships Record of 4:06.22. Tyler Clary took bronze behind Lochte in the 200 back, but look for him to do one better here as the Americans go for their third straight 1-2 finish in the event. Phelps and Lochte, respectively, pulled it off in 2007, while Lochte and Clary matched the feat in 2009. Hungarian Laszlo Cseh won this title in 2005 and medaled in 2003 and 2009, and he could be in the mix, along with teammate David Verraszto, Brazil’s Thiago Pereira, Japan’s Yuya Horihata, and home favorite Wang Chengxiang.

UPDATE: Pereira did not show up for his prelim heat, despite finishing fourth in Rome.

Prediction:
1. Lochte
2. Clary
3. Cseh

This field in the women’s 50 free is among the most wide open of the meet, but I think it comes down to the Netherlands’ Ranomi Kromowidjojo and Sweden’s Therese Alshammar for the gold. Kromowidjojo, the World Short Course champ, is the youngest of the Dutch sprint stars, and she clocked 24.56 in the semi-finals to lead the field. Alshammar, meanwhile, has been winning international medals for almost two decades. She took the third spot into the final after finishing runner-up in the 50 fly earlier in the night. 100 free co-champions Aliaksandra Herasimenia and Jeanette Ottesen both made the final, along with American Jessica Hardy.

Prediction:
1. Alshammar
2. Kromowidjojo
3. Herasimenia

Camille Lacourt has long been talked about as the favorite for the men’s 50 back after clocking 24.07 to win last year’s European title. That time missed Liam Tancock’s world record in the event of 24.04 by just 0.03. Tancock, however, made a statement in the semi-final with a 24.62 clocking. The race between these two men should be fast and furious, but I give a slight edge to Tancock since Lacourt has shown that he is not at his best this week. Meanwhile, South Africa’s Gerhard Zandberg will also be in the mix, perhaps even up with the top-two, and he won the title back in 2007 before taking bronze in 2009. I also think Spain’s Aschwin Wildeboer and USA’s Nick Thoman will be tough to beat in the final.

Prediction:
1. Tancock
2. Lacourt
3. Wildeboer

One of the most anticipated races of the last day is the men’s 1500 free, and the buzz is that Sun Yang will break Grant Hackett’s decade-old world record of 14:34.56. So far, only one record has fallen this week. I predict that Sun will pull it off. All of us viewers at home will have to mute our live video feeds as the crowd goes nuts and lifts the roof off the building. Sun looked easy in prelims as he alone broke 14:50, clocking 14:48.13. Ryan Cochrane, the defending silver medalist, looked easy in winning his heat to qualify fifth, and he has a big swim in him in that final. Gergo Kis clocked a strong 14:52.72 for the second seed, but I think he might not have anymore time to drop. Thus, I am picking American Chad La Tourette to move up from the fourth seed to take third. Reigning World and Olympic champion Ous Mellouli did not qualify for the final.

Prediction:
1. Sun
2. Cochrane
3. La Tourette

China’s Ye Shiwen blazed home in the women’s 200 IM to steal the gold medal, and I think she doubles up in the 400 IM. She will be well behind going into the freestyle, but she can catch anyone who is three seconds ahead, just like she did in the 200 IM. Meanwhile, world record-holder Stephanie Rice looked good in the 200 IM to finish fourth, and I think she takes a podium spot here. American Elizabeth Beisel has a big opening for the top-three here, with many of the top names in the event swimming poorly, such as Mireia Belmonte, Kirsty Coventry, and Katinka Hosszu. I predict Beisel to edge Britain’s Hannah Miley, who had been my original pick for bronze.

Prediction:
1. Ye
2. Rice
3. Beisel

The men’s medley relay will bring the competition to an end, and it should be a good one. Many have talked about the French posing a serious threat to the United States, but this is the Americans’ race to lose. Nick Thoman or David Plummer (or possibly Ryan Lochte) will keep them within striking distance of the French backstroker, either Camille Lacourt or Jeremy Stravius. Reports indicate that Eric Shanteau will handle the breaststroke leg instead of 100 breast finalist Mark Gangloff, and he should gain ground, as Hughes Duboscq did not look good this meet. Michael Phelps should take a huge lead over Fred Bousquet on the fly leg, and Nathan Adrian will hold off William Meynard for the win. The Aussies, anchored by James “the Missile” Magnussen, should earn the bronze, especially since legs from Germany and Japan have underperformed in Shanghai.

Prediction:
1. United States
2. France
3. Australia

Shanghai 2011: Day Seven

2011-07-30T18:15:00.001-04:00

The six finals on day seven in Shanghai featured another six opportunities for exciting and fast racing. Veteran Therese Alshammar went into the women’s 50 fly as the huge favorite, only for Inge Dekker to get the better of her on the home stretch. No one caught Cesar Cielo in the men’s 50 free, as he posted the largest margin of victory in history. Missy Franklin’s continued on the fast track to superstardom with the third-fastest time ever in the women’s 200 back for the gold, while Australia’s Belinda Hocking grabbed the fourth spot on the all-time list in an impressive silver medal showing for Australia. Then Michael Phelps was back in the pool, cruising to gold in the 100 fly, before Rebecca Adlington produced on of the most impressive final two laps I’ve ever seen to track down Lotte Friis for the 800 free win and her first world title.

Over the past few years, many have talked about the potential of the British women’s team headed into the London Olympics. Adlington kicked off these talks in Beijing with a double gold medal finish, and things looked good in Rome in 2009 when Gemma Spofforth took gold in the 100 back, Joanne Jackson won three freestyle medals, Fran Halsall taking world silver in the 100 free, Hannah Miley nearly stepped up onto the medal podium in the 400 IM, and the team took an impressive relay bronze in the 800 free. However, some of the team’s performances have gradually taken a dip, including slower-than-expected championship times. The team underperformed at last year’s European and Commonwealth Games, with teams ranging from Australia to Hungary stealing the show away in key events

In Shanghai, before today, the British women had won just two medals in Shanghai, Adlington’s silver in the 400 free, Ellen Gandy’s bronze in the 200 fly. Halsall had come up short in the 100 free, while Spofforth missed the semi-final of the 100 back. Adlington’s monster final 100 split of 59.65, faster even than her opening split of 59.69, changed the momentum. After two full World Champs meets of struggle and continually coming up short, it looked like Adlington’s third trip to the global showcase would once again end in disappointment. However, today she showed heart and guts to overcome Friis’ lead and take the world title. That win will provide the springboard to a nation whose hopes and dreams in the pool rest on the performances a year from this week away. Additionally, look for that momentum to carry into tomorrow’s competition, where Liam Tancock (50 back) and Hannah Miley (400 IM) are favorites.

Another women’s team concluded a momentum shift today that saw them reclaim the title as top women’s team in the world. In 2008, the American women won just two gold medals (of the 12 total U.S. wins): Natalie Coughlin in the 100 back and Rebecca Soni in the 200 breast. They won no relays at those Olympics. In addition to that duo, only four other American women, Katie Hoff, Margaret Hoelzer, Dara Torres, and Christine Magnuson earned individual hardware after a string of disappointing performances. In Rome the next year, things did not improve much. Soni (100 breast) and Ariana Kukors (200 IM) won gold, but again no American relays did so, and of the three teams only the 800 free relay medaled. The 400 free relay took fourth, while the 400 medley team did not advance to the final.

At this meet in Shanghai, the team has shown considerable improvement. Missy Franklin emerged as a true superstar, winning gold in the 200 back and posting the top time of the meet in the 200 free. Soni won both the 100 and 200 breast, while Dana Vollmer earned top honors in the 100 fly. Meanwhile, Jessica Hardy is favored to make it one more win in tomorrow’s 50 breast. Coughlin, Kukors, and Ziegler all won medals, while Hoff, Allison Schmitt, Chloe Sutton, and Elizabeth Beisel have all been in the mix. At least one American has qualified for 15 of 16 possible finals so far.

Most importantly, however, the American women won two of the three relays. Not only did they win, they dominated both. Franklin, Dagny Knutson, Hoff, and Schmitt reclaimed the 800 free relay for the first time since 2007, while Coughlin, Soni, Vollmer, and Franklin earned the medley relay title that America last won at the Worlds back in 1998. That last fact brought tears to the eyes of Coughlin, the lead-off swimmer on this relay 10 of the last 11 years. Of the 12 golds Team USA has already won in Shanghai, the women have won half of them. Once again, for the first time in almost a decade, the American women are at the top of the world.

With one day and seven finals left at the World Championships, here are the standings in my prediction contest. The win will come down to Matt Salzberg and me. Check back later for a preview of the last session of swimming in Shanghai.

1. David Rieder 304
2. Matt Salzberg 300
3. Chris DeSantis 266
4. Melissa German 263
4. John Lohn 263
6. Braden Keith 260
7. John Liu 252
8. Jerry Shandrew 238
9. Kristine Sorenson 236
10. Tom Willdridge 235
11. Sebastian Schwenke 190

Shanghai 2011: Day Six

2011-07-29T18:37:00.001-04:00

Another fast day of swimming is in the books in Shanghai with five more swimmers walking away with gold… uh, actually six more. In my finals preview yesterday, I mentioned six of the eight swimmers in the 100 free final; the two I skipped, Denmark’s Jeanette Ottesen and Belarus’ Aliaksandra Herasimenia, came from nowhere and ended up tying for the gold medal. Meanwhile, the Ryan Lochte train kept rolling through the 200 back, obliterating everyone, while Rebecca Soni hung on for gold in the women’s 200 breast. Kosuke Kitajima led through 175 in the men’s 200 breast, but he could not hang on as Hungary’s Daniel Gyurta roared home to his second consecutive world title in the event. Finally, the Lochte train made one more stop in the 800 free relay as he roared past Fabien Gilot for his fourth gold medal of the week.

Meanwhile, six more finals are on the agenda for tomorrow’s finals, beginning with the women’s 50 fly. Sweden’s Therese Alshammar holds the world record (25.07), textile best and 2011’s top-ranked time (25.37), and the number one seed for the final (25.52). Despite losing out in a tight finish back in 2009, I think she will be untouchable here and reclaim her world title that she previously won in 2007. Dutchwoman Inge Dekker, China’s Lu Ying, and Alshammar’s teammate Sarah Sjostrom will also start from the middle lanes, while American Dana Vollmer is a darkhorse from lane eight, barely qualifying just minutes after competing in the 100 free final.

Prediction:
1. Alshammar
2. Lu
3. Vollmer

Brazil finished 1-2 in the semi-finals of the men’s 50 free. Bruno Fratus clocked 21.76, while his more-decorated teammate Cesar Cielo checked in at 21.79. Cielo is the reigning World and Olympic champion and world record-holder, and I think he’ll take the win in the final. However, I’m not sure if Fratus has anything left in the tank. American Nathan Adrian qualified third in 21.94, and Adrian will try to make up for a disappointing sixth-place finish in the 100 free. The field is wide open, especially after defending silver medalist Fred Bousquet missed the semi-finals, and an attack could come from any of the eight qualifiers. Watch Olympic bronze medalist Alain Bernard in lane eight as a darkhorse.

Prediction:
1. Cielo
2. Adrian
3. Fratus

American Missy Franklin has established herself as the clear favorite for gold in the final of the women’s 200 back. She clocked a personal-best time of 2:07.71 in prelims to lead qualifiers before recording a 2:05.90 in her semi-final to break Margaret Hoelzer’s American record of 2:06.09 from 2008. Franklin is now the third-fastest performer in history, and both ahead of her (Zimbabwe’s Kirsty Coventry and Russia’s Anastasia Zueva) missed the cut for the final. She is the prohibitive favorite for gold tomorrow in the final. Meanwhile, I predict fellow American Elizabeth Beisel to take the silver. With Australians Meagan Nay and Belinda Hocking and Britain’s Elizabeth Simmonds not swimming at their respective bests and many gold medal favorites missing the final, Beisel has a real opening here.

Prediction:
1. Franklin
2. Beisel
3. Hocking

Next up is the men’s 100 fly. Kenya’s Jason Dunford has a lot of speed and might take the lead at the start, but this race will be all about USA’s Michael Phelps. Exerting very little energy, he clocked 51.47 in the semi-final for the top seed and holds the world’s fastest time at 51.32 from last month. I expect Phelps to blast a low-50 swim in the final and get down to Ian Crocker’s textile best of 50.40 from the Montreal World Champs six years ago. Meanwhile, the race for silver is wide open, with top contenders including Japan’s Takuro Fujii, American Tyler McGill, Australia’s Geoff Huegill, and Poland’s Konrad Czerniak.

Prediction:
1. Phelps
2. Huegill
3. McGill

In the final heat of the women’s 800 free, Olympic champion Rebecca Adlington and defending World champion Lotte Friis pushed each other to respective times of 8:22.27 and 8:23.07, and no one is within 4.5 seconds. However, no other contender had nearly the level of competition within the heat as those two, so despite qualifying fourth in 8:28.28, I expect American Kate Ziegler to be a big threat. Ziegler won world titles in this event in 2005 and 2007 and also won the Pan Pacific title last year. Fellow American Chloe Sutton rebounded from ninth-place finishes in both the 400 and 1500 to qualify third here in 8:27.72, but I don’t think she can hang with the big three.

Prediction:
1. Adlington
2. Friis
3. Ziegler

The women’s medley relay brings to a close the penultimate night of action in Shanghai, and I predict the Americans to win gold for the first time since 1998. Rebecca Soni (breast) and Dana Vollmer (fly) each won gold in their respective 100 races, Natalie Coughlin won bronze in the 100 back, and Missy Franklin split a blazing 52.99 on the 400 free relay. China, meanwhile, won gold in the 100 back with Zhao Jing, bronzes in the 100 breast (Ji Liping) and 100 fly (Lu Ying), while Tang Yi split 53.12 to anchor the 400 free relay. Australia will lead off with Emily Seebohm and Leisel Jones, while Alicia Coutts is their fastest flyer and freestyler. Replacing her with either Jessicah Schipper (fly) or Yolane Kukla (free) will hurt. Another option is to swim Seebohm on free, Coutts on fly, and Hocking on back.

Prediction:
1. United States
2. China
3. Australia

In 2009, the Americans fell victim to a deep field and missed qualifying for finals. To avoid a repeat, they will need to swim some strong legs during prelims. The obvious B-team quartet is Elizabeth Pelton (back), Amanda Beard (breast), Christine Magnuson (fly), and Kara Lynn Joyce (free), but I don’t think risking missing finals just to use these swimmers is worth it. Jessica Hardy is another option for either the breast or free leg, but she will have the prelims of the 50 free and 50 breast in the same session. Some finals swimmers will have to swim twice in order to be safe in qualifying.

In prelims tonight/tomorrow morning, depending on where you are, we will see a swim-off for first alternate in the men’s 50 free. Australia’s Matt Targett and Russia’s Sergey Fesikov tied for ninth place in 22.09, prompting the need for a swim-off, despite the fact that neither man will go through to the final regardless. Definitely could be interesting to keep an eye on, and maybe one or both will swim a time in the 21 range. The calm water in a swim-off situation combined with impressive performances already in Shanghai for both men could lead to some nice fireworks for prelims.

Finally, Eric Shanteau provided more good news for the American men’s medley relay today. He finished fourth in the 200 breast today in 2:09.28, much faster than last year’s best of 2:10.09. Thus, he should be able to put up a split in the 59-mid range on the relay, which should be enough to put the Americans close enough to the lead where Michael Phelps can crush his opponents and Nathan Adrian cruise home to victory. With Hughes Duboscq missing finals in either breaststroke event, the news keeps getting better for the American men in their quest for gold.

After six days of competition in Shanghai, the scores in the prediction contest are as follows. Looks like a two-man race for the top spot, and I am in the lead!

1. David Rieder 252
2. Matt Salzberg 248
3. Melissa German 223
4. Chris DeSantis 219
5. Braden Keith 218
6. John Lohn 214
7. John Liu 212
8. Kristine Sorenson 208
9. Jerry Shandrew 196
10. Tom Willdridge 187
11. Sebastian Schwenke 152

Shanghai 2011: Day Six Finals Preview

2011-07-29T17:09:00.001-04:00

The sixth night of finals will feature five more races for medals. Things will kick off with the women’s 100 free final. Olympic and World champion Britta Steffen withdrew from the competition after finishing 16th in prelims, but she was not expected to be a major factor in this 100 free regardless. The Netherlands’ Femke Heemskerk split a 52.46 on the 400 free relay on opening night to anchor the Dutch to a world title, and she continued her top form with a strong time of 1:55.54 in the semi-finals of the 200 free. Meanwhile, she will have to deal with countrywoman Ranomi Kromowidjojo, the top-ranked swimmer in the world in 2010; and Brit Fran Halsall, who led the semi-finals with a time of 53.48, the fastest this year. Aussie Alicia Coutts has already won two silver medals in Shanghai, losing the gold in tight finishes in both, while Americans Natalie Coughlin and Dana Vollmer have far more to give than the 54.05 that left the two tied for sixth in the semi-finals.

Prediction:
1. Heemskerk
2. Halsall
3. Kromowidjojo

USA’s Ryan Lochte goes for his third gold medal of the meet in the men’s 200 back. Having already won the 200 free and set a world record in the 200 IM, he should be able to take the win here. He qualified first for the final in 1:55.65. I do not think he’ll get down to Aaron Peirsol’s world record of 1:51.92, but he could reach into the 1:53-low range or possibly even 1:52-high. Japan’s Ryosuke Irie finished right behind Lochte in the semi-final, and he took the silver behind the now-retired Peirsol at the 2009 World Champs in Rome. He is just as strong on top of the water as Lochte, but Lochte will hammer the underwaters, which really could make the difference here. Another American, Tyler Clary, grabbed third in the semi-finals in 1:56.00, and I really think the medalists will be these three men. Clary won silver behind Lochte at Pan Pacs last year. Sticking with my original prediction here.

Prediction:
1. Lochte
2. Irie
3. Clary

The women’s 200 breast will be all about Rebecca Soni. Soni cruised to gold in the 100 distance, leading the field in each round by more than a second. She clocked 2:21.03 in the semi-final today, more than 2.5 seconds ahead of second seed Yuliya Efimova. I think she has more in the tank still; she will challenge Annamay Pierse’s world record of 2:20.12, but I predict she will come up just short. She will, however, beat Leisel Jones’ textile best of 2:20.54 and her top time from last year, a 2:20.69 posted at the Pan Pacific Championships. I predict Pierse to edge Efimova for the silver medal, while defending champion Nadja Higl sits out in lane eight. Having done absolutely nothing in the event since winning the title in Rome two years ago, I do not expect much, but she is the darkhorse of the bunch.

Prediction:
1. Soni
2. Pierse
3. Efimova

After finishing a disappointing fourth in the 100 breast, Kosuke Kitajima is back for the men’s 200 breast. He led the semi-final qualifiers in 2:08.81, just ahead of Daniel Gyurta’s 2:08.92, but reports from Shanghai indicate Kitajima might not have much time to drop from this swim. Kitajima’s teammate Naoya Tomita leads the world rankings at 2:08.25, but he did not make it to the final here. Germany’s Christian Von Lehm posted a 2:09.44 in the semi-final to qualify third, after swimming a 2:08.97 eight weeks ago. Eric Shanteau, the runner-up to Gyurta in Rome, won his semi-final heat in 2:10.03 and will be pushing for a medal as well. I predict Gyurta to defend his title here.

Prediction:
1. Gyurta
2. Kitajima
3. Shanteau

The American men should cruise in the 800 free relay to an easy win. Ryan Lochte and Michael Phelps went 1-2 in the 200 free final, while Peter Vanderkaay has been swimming well, including an impressive fourth place-finish in the 400 free. Ricky Berens, Dave Walters, and Conor Dwyer will battle for rights to swim the fourth leg of the relay. Meanwhile, 100 free winner James Magnussen might put in a leg for Australia after his teammates in the 200 free underwhelmed in the individual event. Sun Yang will lead the Chinese charge, while Russia won silver in the last Olympics and Worlds and had two swimmers in the individual 200 free final.

Prediction:
1. United States
2. Russia
3. China

Shanghai 2011: Day Five

2011-07-28T18:44:00.005-04:00

Another day is in the books at the World Championships in Shanghai. On this fifth day of competition, we saw perhaps the best fireworks of the week thus far, including the first world record of the championships. Not only that, but also the first world record of 2011 and the first long course mark set since December of 2009. Ryan Lochte went out fast and did what he needed to do to not only get ahead of super-rival Michael Phelps, but with 15 meters to go, I saw something I had not seen in a long time; Lochte’s fingertips had come into contact with the red line that represents world record pace. From there, he put his head down and finished with enough power to beat the 1:54.10 he clocked in Rome two years ago. The clock said 1:54.00, faster than anybody had ever swum.

Check out these screenshots, courtesy of the Universal Sports race video. It had been too long since we had scen images such as this.

In my prediction blog yesterday, I said that Ryan Lochte would get down to his mark. I also said that Michael Phelps would break into the 1:54-range to finish second. However, I did not expect Phelps to show such staying power on the back half to push Lochte all the way to the finish as he did. Certainly, I did not think Phelps would beat his personal best time. But Phelps clocked 1:54.16 today, faster than the 1:54.33 he swam at the Beijing Olympics for his sixth of eight gold medals (and sixth world record). And he apparently did this off limited training? Next year in London, with both at their peak, both men will be faster and into the 1:53-range; only “epic” will describe that race.

Up next, in the men’s 100 free final, James Magnussen showed the world that he is a force to be reckoned with in the two-lapper. In 47.63, he backed up the 47.49 relay lead-off he notched on Sunday to beat out Canada’s Brent Hayden (47.95) and France’s William Meynard (48.00), with world record-holder Cesar Cielo fourth (48.01). America, meanwhile, had to settle for sixth place with Nathan Adrian (48.23). However, this race has shown such volatility over the past few years; a different man has led the world rankings every year since 2006. The places in this event will be once again scrambled in the year to come, much to the relief of American fans, but I’m not so sure about the winner.

James Magnussen made his first international impact at the Commonwealth Games, where he anchored Australia’s 400 free relay team to gold with a 48.57 split. Not long after, he won Australia’s 100 free national title in 48.29. Despite a bout of pneumonia shortly before Worlds, he still managed to drop 47s in the 100 free three times this week; in the past year and a half, only one other man has broken the barrier. And on top of all this, he is just 20 years old. In a traditionally age-dominated race, he has nearly unlimited potential.

Lochte and Magnussen made headlines today, but another swimmer made jaws drop worldwide. In the women’s 50 back, Russia’s Anastasia Zueva made up for so many close calls to win her first world title, while Japan’s Aya Terakawa made up for a disappointing fifth-place finish in the 100 back with a silver medal. Meanwhile, American Missy Franklin snuck in for a surprise bronze medal, clocking 28.01. But she wasn’t close to being done; after leading off Team USA’s 800 free relay in prelims in a personal-best time of 1:56.98, she returned in finals to clock 1:55.06 on the lead-off leg. Not only did Franklin cut 2.5 seconds off her lifetime best in a day, but she missed the American record by a mere tenth, coming up just shy of the two year old mark of 1:54.96 that Allison Schmitt clocked in a polyurethane suit. Moreover, she became the fifth-fastest swimmer of all time in the event!

Franklin carried the American team to the win, as Dagny Knutson, Katie Hoff, and Allison Schmitt comfortably held off teams from Australia and China. Ironically, Franklin did not even qualify for this relay in the first place! She clocked 1:59.17 to finish tenth at Nationals last summer. Now, however, things have changed. Already with one medal of each color, Franklin heads into her signature 200 back as a newly-minted favorite. Her best time right now is 2:07.96, set back in March. At this point, breaking Margaret Hoelzer’s American record of 2:06.09 in route to a gold medal could not be considered a surprise.

Additionally, it looks like she’ll anchor the American medley relay, a team which is an easy choice for gold after strong individual performances from Natalie Coughlin (back), Rebecca Soni (breast), and Dana Vollmer. Franklin popped a 52.99 leg on the 400 free relay on the way to a silver medal there; no American has ever bested that split in a textile suit. As Peter Busch said on today’s Morning Swim Show, her performances today in Shanghai officially completed her transition from “star” to “superstar.”

In tomorrow’s prelims (or tonight’s, depending on where you are), we will see the opening rounds of six different events. To start things off, Cesar Cielo and Nathan Adrian will attempt to make up for disappointing performances in the men’s 100 free with medal runs in the 50, but they will have to fend off a tough Frenchman named Fred Bousquet, the first man to break 21 seconds. Meanwhile, 100 fly gold medalist Dana Vollmer takes on veteran Therese Alshammar in the 50 fly. Michael Phelps returns to water for the 100 fly, an event in which he has recently dominated, while perennial silver medalist Milorad Cavic has aims on making up for a lackluster 50 fly.

Franklin takes to the blocks in the women’s 200 back against double Olympic champion Kirsty Coventry, 100 back champion Zhao Jing, and a tough, wide open field. American Elizabeth Beisel won bronze in the event in 2009, while Australians Meagan Nay and Belinda Hocking have both impressed in the event thus far this year. American Chloe Sutton will try to rebound from a pair of ninth-place finishes in the 400 and 1500 free when she swims the 800, while Rebecca Adlington, Lotte Friis, and Kate Ziegler should battle for gold.

Looks like a two-person race in the prediction contest. Will I be able to retake the lead from challenger Matt Salzberg?

1. Matt Salzberg 208
2. David Rieder 202
3. Melissa German 187
4. Chris DeSantis 182
5. John Liu 179
6. Kristine Sorenson 178
7. Braden Keith 178
8. John Lohn 160
9. Jerry Shandrew 148
10. Tom Willdridge 142
11. Sebastian Schwenke 132

Shanghai 2011: Day Four

2011-07-27T16:58:00.001-04:00

At this halfway point of the 2011 World Championships, I need to start this blog with an apology. I received a prediction submission from John Liu, more commonly known as “John26” in comment sections on various blogs. However, his predictions did not end up on the spreadsheet I am using to score the contest until I realized my mistake today. Naturally, John’s picks will be considered in the prediction contest from this point on, and we now have eleven competitors. You can check out a copy of that spreadsheet here, and these are the scores after four days and 17 finals. In the lead, as expected, is the swim geek!

1. David Rieder 171
2. Matt Salzberg 167
3. Chris DeSantis 161
4. Kristine Sorenson 155
5. John Liu 152
6. Melissa German 151
7. Braden Keith 142
8. John Lohn 130
9. Jerry Shandrew 119
10. Tom Willdridge 114
11. Sebastian Schwenke 109

Now, onto the action we saw today in Shanghai. Federica Pellegrini won yet another world title in a race in which the three leaders at the halfway mark fell back to the bottom three places. Sun Yang, subject of all the hype of the swimming world coming into the meet, finally won his first world title, while the distance dominator of recent years, Ous Mellouli, fell out of the medals in a disappointing race (more on that before the 1500). Felipe Silva showed why semi-final times do not decide gold medalists whilst bringing a storm with a controversial dolphin kick on the finish. And Michael Phelps reminded everyone, especially Takeshi Matsuda and Wu Peng, that he indeed is Michael Phelps.

After getting through a recap in record time, I’ll take a look at the finals on tap for tomorrow in Shanghai. It all begins with the men’s 200 IM, another showdown between Phelps and Lochte, Lochte and Phelps. I think Phelps goes out hard, just like he has already in the 200 free and 200 fly and takes a lead on Lochte down the first lap, but Lochte will stick to him on back and spring ahead on breast. Phelps’ middle strokes do look better than last year, so I think he’ll finish in the 1:54-range, but Lochte will break the world record and take down the 1:54 barrier. Hungary’s Laszlo Cseh is the third qualifier for the final, but he looked like he expended a lot of energy in his semi-final. Likewise, Brazil’s Thiago Pereira will really hurt down the last lap of the race, leaving an opening for Austria’s Markus Rogan.

Prediction:
1. Lochte
2. Phelps
3. Rogan

Up next, the big men take to the blocks for the final of the 100 free. Brazil’s Cesar Cielo is the defending champion and world record-holder, but his confidence and expectations seem relatively low. He did not beat his season-best time in the 50 fly, and thus I do not know if he can improve on the 48.26 he swam at the Paris Open. Australia’s James Magnussen led off the 400 free relay in 47.49, and he is the favorite for gold with a monster back half. American Nathan Adrian qualified second behind Magnussen, 47.90 to 48.05, and he probably has the best shot to stay with the young Aussie. Don’t sleep on 2007 World Champ Brent Hayden or 2010 Short Course Worlds silver medalist Fabien Gilot.

Prediction:
1. Magnussen
2. Adrian
3. Cielo

Little more than a second separates the finalists in the women’s 200 fly, and I think almost any of the eight could touch the wall first. British swimmers Jemma Lowe and Ellen Gandy won their respective semi-final heats, but I think China’s Olympic champion, Liu Zige, has another gear after losing some ground on the back half in the semi-final. Look for Liu and teammate Jiao Liuyang to go out fast and try to hang on. The field consists of two Brits, two Chinese, and two Aussies, including triple Olympic champion Stephanie Rice and two-time defending World Champ Jessicah Schipper.

Prediction:
1. Liu
2. Lowe
3. Schipper

The women’s 50 back is even more wide open than the aforementioned 200 fly, and I would not be surprised at all to see any of the eight swimmers in the field take the gold. Russia’s Anastasia Zueva is the top seed, and she will be hungry after missing gold in the 100 back by just one one-hundredth of a second. China’s Zhao Jing, who won that 100 back and won the 50 back at the Worlds in Rome, opted not to compete in the 50 this time around. Teammate Gao Chang has twice before won medals at Worlds but never gold. Japan’s Aya Terakawa entered the meet as a medal favorite in both the 50 and 100 back but underperformed in the 100. Belarus’ Aliaksandra Herasimenia once tied the world record in this event, while American teenage sensation Missy Franklin will aim for a medal here in preparation for her big event, the 200 back.

Prediction:
1. Zueva
2. Herasimenia
3. Terakawa

The Australians look like the team to beat in the women’s 800 free relay after Kylie Palmer won silver in the individual 200 free, and teammate Bronte Barratt also made the final. The deciding factors will be how their younger and inexperienced teammates step up. The Americans will look to veterans Allison Schmitt and Dana Vollmer to lead the team, while youngsters Dagny Knutson and potentially Missy Franklin will join the team in the quest to improve on the silver they won at the 2009 Worlds. Disappointing swims by Katie Hoff and Morgan Scroggy have thrown this relay’s potential into doubt. And finally, there are the defending World Champions, the Chinese. Although none of the entries into the individual 200 free performed well, China has a tendency to step up their game in this relay. With the British and Hungarian teams underperforming and France lacking a fourth strong leg, I don’t think anyone can touch the top-three; the only question is order of finish.

Prediction:
1. Australia
2. United States
3. China

Shanghai 2011: Day Three

2011-07-26T16:27:00.001-04:00

All year, the swim geeks of the world have hyped the men’s 200 free as the race of the World Championships. There was the superstar and his perpetual challenger. The world record-holder and his young Russian and French rivals were in the field. And on top of that, another man started the final as the odds-on favorite; after winning the 400 free in dominating fashion on the meet’s first night, South Korea’s Tae Hwan Park had a strong chance to do one better than the silver medal he won at the 2008 Beijing Olympics. Meanwhile, many questioned whether the aforementioned superstar, none other than Michael Phelps, even had a chance to medal.

The two Americans took the race out from the start, and Phelps led for the first half of the race. But off the second wall, Ryan Lochte showed his superiority, dominating that lap and holding off Phelps for the world title. Lochte posted a personal best time of 1:44.44, crushing his old mark of 1:45.30 set in winning the Pan Pacific Championships last year. In textile suits, Lochte is now the third-fastest swimmer in history, trailing just Phelps and Aussie great Ian Thorpe. Phelps, meanwhile, touched at 1:44.79, his second-fastest time ever in a textile suit behind the 1:43.86 he clocked at the 2007 World Championships to wipe Thorpe’s name from the record books.

In a tight scramble to the wall behind Lochte, Phelps barely out-touched Germany’s Paul Biedermann (1:44.88) and Park (1:44.92), with France’s Yannick Agnel finishing fifth in 1:44.99. Going into the race, China’s Sun Yang had held the world’s top time at 1:44.99, so six men have broken the 1:45 mark this year for the first time ever! Yep, even with the high tech suits, no more than five men have ever broken 1:45 in a year. In 2009, Biedermann, Phelps, Russia’s Danila Izotov, and Americans Ricky Berens and Dave Walters broke the barrier, and other than that, never more than two in one year have done so. While the top-end speed seen with the suits – such as Biedermann’s 1:42.00 world record – is gone, the hype and pressure have pushed this event to new, never-before-seen heights in depth. All of this cumulated in one of them most exciting races I’ve ever seen.

To be honest, the rest of today’s races were very predictable; in fact, I predicted all four of the remaining winners in my original predictions last week. All that I took away was more good news for the American medley relays. In the men’s 100 back, Nick Thoman and David Plummer recorded respective times of 53.01 and 53.04, not far away from Frenchmen Camille Lacourt and Jeremy Stravius, who tied for gold in 52.76. Some had predicted a French lead of a second on the backstroke lead on the medley relay on their way to a potential gold. Now, with a clear American advantage on fly and even breast and staying close enough on back, the chance of a French upset is quickly diminishing.

On a related note, France now faces a dilemma as to which backstroker to use on the lead-off for the medley relay after today’s tie. While conventional wisdom would say to use Lacourt on that leg, I believe Stravius is the best bet. On the final night of competition, Lacourt will swim the 50 back final, where he is the big favorite after posting a time of 24.07 in 2010, just 0.03 off the world record. Stravius, meanwhile, is far less likely to make the final of that event. If, as I expect, Lacourt is the only Frenchmen in that final, France would be doing a disservice to their team by using Lacourt for the second time in the session.

For the women, Rebecca Soni clocked a relatively pedestrian time of 1:05.05 for gold in the 100 breast. Many had predicted a world record (1:04.45) or at least an improvement over her semi-final time of 1:04.91, but she now holds the top-seven times recorded in the 100 breast this year. Still, it didn’t matter; Soni defeated Olympic gold medalist Leisel Jones by 1.20 seconds, as Jones came in second at 1:06.25. China’s Ji Liping hit the wall at 1:06.52 for third. Soni has established a clear lead on the Aussies and Chinese in breast, a huge boost for the U.S. medley relay. With Natalie Coughlin showing her ability to at the very least stay within a tenth or two of her competition in the 100 back and Dana Vollmer winning the 100 fly, the American women look pretty golden right now as well.

Four more finals await us tomorrow, including Michael Phelps in his best event, the 200 fly. Japan’s Takeshi Matsuda and China’s Chen Yin qualified ahead of Phelps, but Phelps noticeably turned off the gas the last lap of his semi-final swim and had a terrible finish. I think Phelps turns it on tomorrow and crush his competition from the start. Matsuda is the easy favorite for silver, but I think almost anyone in the final could grab one of the minor medals.

Prediction:
1. Phelps
2. Matsuda
3. Jukic

Dutchwoman Femke Heemskerk obliterated the field in the semi-finals of the women’s 200 free by nearly a second, but she tends to be inconsistent in her 200 swims, and I don’t know if she can improve upon the 1:55.54 she swam already. Defending champion Federica Pellegrini qualified second in 1:56.42, while defending silver medalist Allison Schmitt finished at the back of a tight seven-woman pack in 1:57.07, after clocking 1:56.66 in prelims. Look for a big improvement by both swimmers tomorrow, while 400 free bronze medalist Camille Muffat has staked her claim as a contender as well.

Prediction:
1. Pellegrini
2. Heemskerk
3. Schmitt

China’s Sun Yang led the way in the men’s 800 free prelims, while Pal Joensen of the Faroe Islands held off Canada’s Ryan Cochrane for the second seed, with all three recording 7:45 splits. Both really pushed each other down the stretch, giving the indication that these two expended more energy than some of the other competitors. Ous Mellouli has the top credentials of all the finalists, as he is the World and Olympic champion in the 1500 and defending silver medalist in the 800. Americans Peter Vanderkaay and Chad La Tourette both made the final and will swim from lanes 7 and 8, respectively. They could chase Larsen Jensen’s American record of 7:45.63 set back in 2005.

Prediction:
1. Sun
2. Mellouli
3. Cochrane

South Africa’s Cameron van der Burgh and Brazil’s Felipe Silva set themselves up as the men to beat in the 50 breast final with sub-27 performances in the semi-final. The pair finished 1-2 at both the last Worlds in Rome and also the Short Course Worlds in Dubai; van der Burgh beat Silva in Rome, while the Brazilian turned the tables in December in Dubai. The race for the medals should be tight, and I could see Italy’s Fabio Scozolli or Norway’s Alexander Dale Oen move up into the top-two. However, I will stick with my original prediction.

Prediction:
1. van der Burgh
2. Silva
3. Scozolli

Should be another great day of action in Shanghai on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the results of the prediction contest are coming in quickly, and we have a new leader after three days of competition. Still a tight race though.

1. Matt Salzberg 129
2. David Rieder 126
3. Chris DeSantis 117
4. Kristine Sorenson 115
5. Melissa German 103
6. Braden Keith 101
7. John Lohn 93
8. Jerry Shandrew 83
9. Sebastian Schwenke 78
10. Tom Willdridge 77

Shanghai 2011: Day Three Finals Predictions

2011-07-25T17:27:00.000-04:00

Five finals await the world on a packed Day 3 of competition in Shanghai. Having already discussed what transpired on the first two days of action, here is my take on what is to come on Tuesday and some updated predictions regarding the action. Without further ado, here goes.

The hardest race to predict of the five is the first, the men’s 200 free. France’s Yannick Agnel leads the way, followed closely by the German defending champion Paul Biedermann. Americans Ryan Lochte and Michael Phelps bracket 400 free champion Park Tae Hwan, and the medals will stay between those five swimmers. Olympic gold medalist Phelps really cruised through the middle 100 of his semi-final swim, but I just don’t know if he’s in good enough shape to get this title back. Biedermann has looked better than I expected here, and a German gold here would not surprise me like it would have a week ago. Park did not swim as fast as many predicted in the 400 free, but again, he has the speed to be ready to go here. But I will predict Lochte to win gold. He looked sharp in the semi-final, and although Biedermann did out-touch him, he had the win before putting the race on cruise control 10 meters from the wall.

Prediction:
1. Lochte
2. Park
3. Phelps

I originally predicted China’s Zhao Jing to win the women’s 100 back, ahead of Japan’s Aya Terakawa and the United States’ Natalie Coughlin. However, Zhao has not looked especially sharp through the first few rounds, and Terakawa barely qualified for the final in eighth, while Coughlin cruised to the top qualifying position. The race is tight through to the final and will be once again tomorrow, but she has a tendency to get her fingertips on the wall just in time, as she has done in the last two Olympic races. I pick Coughlin to win her third career World title in the 100 back tomorrow.

Prediction:
1. Coughlin
2. Zhao
3. Zueva

The women’s 1500 free comes next, perhaps the most open race of the night. Lotte Friis leads the way in 16:00.47, but the prelims were fast and tight. In reality, any of the eight finalists could win a gold medal tomorrow. Friis won the 800 free at the 2009 Worlds in Rome after finishing second in the 1500, Kate Ziegler of the U.S. holds the world record at 15:42.54, having obliterated Janet Evans’ 19 year old mark back in 2007. Ziegler, the 2005 and 2007 champion in this event, finished second to Friis in their heat on Monday morning in 16:02.53 for the third-ranked qualifying time overall. Australian Melissa Gorman defeated Ziegler to take the 1500 crown at Pan Pacs last summer, and Gorman is already a London Olympian, having qualified in the 10k Open Water last week. Perhaps the most surprising prelim swim came from Shao Yiwen, who clocked a Chinese record time of 16:01.72 to finish second.

Prediction:
1. Friis
2. Ziegler
3. Shao

France’s Jeremy Stravius led all qualifiers in the 100 back semi-finals, clocking 52.76 to break 53 for the first time in his career. However, his countryman Camille Lacourt is the favorite for gold, having swum 52.11, not far from Aaron Peirsol’s world record of 51.94, to win the European title last year. I don’t think Lacourt will quite get to Peirsol’s mark in the final, but he should win gold. Stravius will battle for the silver medal with Japan’s Ryosuke Irie, and I predict American David Plummer to get in on all the fun to grab a medal. The race for the top will be tight with Plummer’s teammate Nick Thoman and Britain’s Liam Tancock and Germany’s Helge Meeuw, both previous medalists in this event. I do not expect New Zealand’s Gareth Kean to be a factor.

Prediction:
1. Lacourt
2. Stravius
3. Plummer

I am not making a bold prediction in picking American Rebecca Soni to win the women’s 100 breast. She has led prelims and semi-finals by more than a second and a half each time. Her semi-final time of 1:04.91 and her prelim time of 1:05.54 are the two fastest times in the world this year, respectively. Already, Soni holds the top-six times swum in 2011! The big question is can she approach the world record? Jessica Hardy clocked that 1:04.45 back in 2009, but I don’t think Soni has quite enough to break the record in Shanghai. Maybe next year in London. Leisel Jones, the 2008 Olympic gold medalist, qualified second in 1:06.66; she will be much faster in the final, but I still don’t see her approaching Jones. Defending silver medalist and European champion Yuliya Efimova and Chinese swimmers Ji Liping and Sun Ye look like challengers for a bronze.

Prediction:
1. Soni
2. Jones
3. Ji

Looks like another great finals session tomorrow from China, and I can’t wait to see how it turns out. Two world records (men’s 100 back and women’s 100 breast) will be on watch, and I see swimmers approaching but not beating these times. Not to worry; world records will be set later on this week.

Finally, I will share the results of my prediction contest after two days of action. Looks like a good competitive battle going on, but I think we all remember who is the swim geek! You can view all the prediction entries here.

1. David Rieder 78
2. Matt Salzberg 77
3. Kristine Sorenson 68
4. Chris DeSantis 64
5. John Lohn 62
6. Braden Keith 60
7. Jerry Shandrew 54
8. Melissa German 53
9. Sebastian Schwenke 44
10. Tom Willdridge 43

Shanghai 2011: Days One and Two

2011-07-25T16:40:00.006-04:00

We are one-fourth of the way through the pool events at the World Championships in Shanghai, and we have seen exciting races and surprising finishes already. From Dana Vollmer’s fireworks in the 100 fly and the surprisingly slow and back-and-forth men’s 400 free to the myriad of reactions upon the conclusion of the men’s 50 fly and Alexander Dale Oen’s emotional win in the men’s 100 breast, the meet has been unpredictable, exciting, and fast. Today, I will take a look at some of my favorite races thus far and preview tomorrow’s finals action in Shanghai.

The first final of the meet was the men’s 400 free. In the lead-up, swim blogs had been bursting with predictions of Sun Yang breaking Paul Biedermann’s suit-aided world record of 3:40.07 set back in 2009. Meanwhile, Olympic champion Tae Hwan Park had gone from a co-favorite to probable bridesmaid over the last few months. The event’s prelims did not change the scene; only Sun broke 3:45, while Park snuck into the final in seventh. From there, Park set the pace, only to be caught at the 200 mark. At the 250, France’s Yannick Agnel had the lead, followed by Tunisia’s Ous Mellouli and Canada’s Ryan Cochrane. However, at that point, things changed.

On the sixth of eight laps, Park stormed ahead once again and moved into a position where no one could touch him. Meanwhile, Sun and Biedermann raced past the three leaders at the 250 to earn the minor spoils, respectively, while American Peter Vanderkaay put on an impressive show to finish in fourth place. In the end, all of the finalists recorded slower times than I had expected with the exceptions of Biedermann and Vanderkaay.

What did we learn in this crazy, surprisingly slow final? The veterans will come through when they need to. Many had counted out Park for the gold after Sun’s impressive performances in the lead-up, but once again, the Olympic champ and 2007 World Champ came through. After disappointing performances in 2010, many people expected very little from Biedermann and Vanderkaay – no one in my prediction contest picked either to finish on the medal stand, while choosing Mellouli and Agnel instead – but both veterans came through on the major stage as they have before.

While the women’s 400 free relay held to form as a duel between the U.S. and the Netherlands, with the favored Dutch coming out on top, the men’s relay went convoluted. Everyone talked about America and France, France and the United States. A few people said that Australia, led by rising star James Magnussen, could make a dent, but these predictions quieted when Magnussen revealed he had pneumonia. Apparently, though, pneumonia is the best way to taper. The Aussie busted out a 47.49 lead-off leg, the fastest time ever recorded in a textile suit, to make him history’s eighth-fastest performer. Matt Targett, Matt Abood, and Eamon Sullivan did the job on the back, holding off France and the U.S. for the gold.

So what does this mean? First off, Magnussen is the real deal. Hyped after clocking 48.29 back in March, he now has a legitimate shot to knock off the likes of Cesar Cielo, Brent Hayden, and Nathan Adrian in the 100 free to become the next great in the event. While Magnussen is not as sharp in races shorter than 100, he won Australia’s Short Course Nationals in the 200 free in 1:44.12, so at the very least he could add a punch to the Aussies’ ever-improving 800 free relay. More importantly, with the likes of Ian Thorpe on the comeback trail with the goal of making this 400 free relay team, the competition Down Under is fierce, and this relay has upwards potential. If they want to have a chance of defending their Olympic title next year, the American team will need to rely on the same kind of competition to get on this relay to push them back over the top.

Cesar Cielo won the men’s 50 fly today, followed by Australians Matt Targett and Geoff Huegill. Cielo, whose participation in this meet was up in the air as recently as last Friday, displayed his typical reaction full of tears, while former Auburn teammate Targett looked not totally satisfied after winning his second straight silver in the event. Huegill, meanwhile, looked simply thrilled. His comeback story has been well publicized, and this meet is just another stepping stone to his final goal of next year’s London Olympics. Huegill won the first 50 butterfly title at the World Championships back in 2001, but standing on the podium once more brings things full circle for him. He knows and appreciates the sport more than anyone else out there; hence the reaction to what wasn’t even a great time for him. Hence the reason that Geoff Huegill is one of my favorite swimmers in the world.

Going into the final of the men’s 100 breast, most foresaw a duel between Japan’s double defending Olympic champion Kosuke Kitajima and Norway’s two-time European champion Alexander Dale Oen. Many also thought defending world champion Brenton Rickard was a favorite for a medal. In the 50 breast, however, most predicted a completely different slate of medal contenders, including South Africa’s Cameron van der Burgh, Brazil’s Felipe Silva, Germany’s Hendrik Feldwehr, and Italy’s Fabio Scozolli. No one picked any of these four in the 100 breast.

Dale Oen won the 100 breast in 58.71, but neither Kitajima nor Rickard got under the 1:00 barrier; instead Scozolli and van der Burgh won the other medals with respective times of 59.42 and 59.49. Moreover, Dale Oen’s clocked a 27.20 split at the halfway point, the top time in the world this year in the 50 breast. Now, it looks more and more likely that the same three could medal in the 50 breast. While swimmers medaling in the 50 and 100 breast events have been very common, the landscape of the events has suddenly changed to where the meet could end with more double medalists than anticipated.

American Mark Gangloff posted a swift time of 1:00.19 in the semi-final of the 100 breast to make the final, where he finished eighth. The American men’s medley relay has been viewed a vulnerable to the French as of late, in part due to America’s weakness in the breast. However, with Gangloff beating Frenchman Hughes Duboscq (who did not make the final) and Eric Shanteau reportedly swimming a fast 100 breast time trial, that leg appears to be taken care of. Meanwhile, the other 100-meter final contested today, the women’s 100 fly, showed much more how the women’s medley relay will play out. Dana Vollmer clocked 56.47 in the semi-final, while Australian Alicia Coutts and China’s Lu Ying never approached that time. Moreover, Coutts might end up swimming freestyle on that relay, and fellow Aussie Jessicah Schipper finished even further back in the pack. American strength seems assured on fly.

More to come today, including my preview of the finals to be contested on Tuesday in Shanghai and some updated predictions, along with the results of my prediction contest after two days of action.

Genuine joy from Geoff Huegill upon returning to the medal podium in the 50 fly in Shanghai after a decade-long hiatus.

Picture: Michael Sohn Source: AP

Shanghai 2011: Day Two Finals Predictions

2011-07-24T23:38:00.000-04:00

I know that I have not yet shared my swim-geeking about these FINA World Championships in Shanghai, and I deeply apologize to the hoard of you who sat at your computers all day waiting for my blog. I have spent the weekend at my State Championship meet, swimming fast (though certainly not nearly as fast as the swimmers I am writing about). I did not even get a chance to watch most of this morning/last night’s finals live! But don’t worry; I will be up to watch live tomorrow morning, and then I’ll share my full thoughts on both sessions of finals. The lack of sleep combined with the lactic acid from my last race going to my head (yes, I skimped on warm-down) will cause me deliria tomorrow, but who cares?

This morning, we saw two very different results from two defending champions in the two women’s 100-meter races. One of them blasted the fastest time in the world to lead qualifiers by a second and a half. A loss in this race would be a monumental upset. The other, sick with food poisoning this weekend, finished 23rd in a time nearly four seconds slower than world record that she set in Rome in 2009. Such is the nature of our sport and the results that Rebecca Soni and Gemma Spofforth achieved today, respectively. Oh how drastically things can change in just two years. That said, wishing the best to Spofforth down the line.

Meanwhile, some updated predictions for finals:

Women’s 100 Fly
1. Dana Vollmer
2. Sarah Sjostrum
3. Alicia Coutts
*Vollmer looks too good to be stopped.

Men’s 50 Fly
1. Cesar Cielo
2. Geoff Huegill
3. Matt Targett
*Expect some outsider smoke from Targett and Fred Bousquet.

Women’s 200 IM
1. Yi Shiwen
2. Ariana Kukors
3. Stephanie Rice
*Top three looks solid but really could go in any order. Sticking with my original pick.

Men’s 100 Breast
1. Alexander Dale Oen
2. Kosuke Kitajima
3. Brenton Rickard
*Standing by my same top-three as before; they’ve done nothing to change my mind.

Shanghai 2011: Predictions, Part Four

2011-07-20T11:52:00.002-04:00

We are less than one week away from the start of pool swimming at the 2011 FINA World Championships in Shanghai. Instead of discussing storylines headed into the meet as I so often do, I decided instead to post my predictions in four parts, and under each prediction, I included some of my thoughts headed in to the meet. While in many cases this meet is much more straightforward in predicting than a national-level meet, there is more opportunity for a swimmer to come out of the woodwork to win a medal. So we will see how this goes. This final round of predictions includes the men’s freestyle, IM, and relay events. You can find my predictions for women’s events here and here, and the first part of my men’s predictions, including backstroke, breaststroke, and butterfly events, here.

Note: With the decision as to whether Cesar Cielo can compete in the World Championships still looming, I have included four places in his events. If he is not allowed to compete, the second-place finisher moves up to gold.

50 Free
1. Cesar Cielo, Brazil
2. Fred Bousquet, France
3. Nathan Adrian, USA
4. Andriy Govorov, Ukraine
*If he gets to compete, Cielo will show that he is truly a dominant force in the one-lapper. The top-three are clear of the rest of the world. Darkhorse pick for fourth.

100 Free
1. Nathan Adrian, USA
2. Cesar Cielo, Brazil
3. Brent Hayden, Canada
4. Fabien Gilot, France
*Cielo goes out quickly and forces the pace, but Adrian motors down the stretch and edges his Brazilian rival.

200 Free
1. Michael Phelps, USA
2. Ryan Lochte, USA
3. Tae Hwan Park, Korea
*Could go a lot of different ways among the top three, but I predict strong underwater work is the difference-maker for the Americans ahead of the Korean superstar.

400 Free
1. Tae Hwan Park, Korea
2. Sun Yang, China
3. Ous Mellouli, Tunisia
*Park goes out fast and stays ahead of the Chinese distance sensation for the entire race. Mellouli is too powerful for the rest of the field.

800 Free
1. Sun Yang, China
2. Ous Mellouli, Tunisia
3. Ryan Cochrane, Canada
*Sun Yang wins first of two golds over Mellouli, while bronze is somewhat open. Americans LaTourette and Vanderkaay should both be in the final.

1500 Free
1. Sun Yang, China
2. Ous Mellouli, Tunisia
3. Ryan Cochrane, Canada
*Mellouli won’t go down without a fight, but Sun Yang has been on fire for the past 12 months. Top-three looks solid here.

200 IM
1. Ryan Lochte, USA
2. Michael Phelps, USA
3. Thiago Pereira, Brazil
*Lochte takes the lead on breaststroke and never looks back as he cracks into the 1:53 range for the first time. Pereira finally earns a medal after many fourth-place finishes.

400 IM
1. Ryan Lochte, USA
2. Tyler Clary, USA
3. Laszlo Cseh, Hungary
*At the end of his program, Lochte should still have enough to hold off a strong charge from the rising medley superstar Clary.

4x100 Free Relay
1. United States
2. France
3. Russia
*Americans have the speed, depth, and mental advantage needed to take this one.

4x200 Free Relay
1. United States
2. Russia
3. China
*Maybe the Americans can get under 7:00 for the first time in textile. Sun Yang and Zhang Lin lead the new Chinese threat in this event.

4x100 Medley Relay
1. United States
2. France
3. Australia
*Despite weakness early on, Michael Phelps puts the Americans into a strong lead with his fly leg, enough for the win. Look for Germany to make a strong push for the medals as well, while Japan will be in the mix until freestyle.

Shanghai 2011: Predictions, Part Three

2011-07-19T12:10:00.005-04:00

We are less than one week away from the start of pool swimming at the 2011 FINA World Championships in Shanghai. Instead of discussing storylines headed into the meet as I so often do, I decided instead to post my predictions in four parts, and under each prediction, I included some of my thoughts headed in to the meet. While in many cases this meet is much more straightforward in predicting than a national-level meet, there is more opportunity for a swimmer to come out of the woodwork to win a medal. So we will see how this goes. This third round of predictions includes the men’s backstroke, breaststroke, and butterfly. You can find my predictions for women’s events here and here, and I will post my final predictions tomorrow.

Note: With the decision as to whether Cesar Cielo can compete in the World Championships still looming, I have included four places in his events. If he is not allowed to compete, the second-place finisher moves up to gold.

50 Back
1. Camille Lacourt, France
2. Liam Tancock, Great Britain
3. Junya Koga, Japan
*These three have the most raw backstroke speed of anyone in the field. Lacourt barely missed Tancock’s world record (24.07) last year.

100 Back
1. Camille Lacourt, France
2. Ryosuke Irie, Japan
3. David Plummer, USA
*Lacourt should threaten Aaron Peirsol’s world record of 51.94. Plummer is ready to break onto the big stage.

200 Back
1. Ryan Lochte, USA
2. Ryosuke Irie, Japan
3. Tyler Clary, USA
*When the Florida taper kicks in, Lochte will be ready to reclaim his world title from 2007. Clary looming stronger and stronger.

50 Breast
1. Cameron van der Burgh, South Africa
2. Felipe Silva, Brazil
3. Fabio Scozolli, Italy
*Silva upset van der Burgh at the World Short Course Championships, but I don’t think it happens again.

100 Breast
1. Alexander Dale Oen, Norway
2. Kosuke Kitajima, Japan
3. Brenton Rickard, Australia
*These three stand above the rest of the field. Dale Oen is ready to get by the man who beat him in the Olympic final.

200 Breast
1. Naoya Tomita, Japan
2. Kosuke Kitajima, Japan
3. Daniel Gyurta, Hungary
*Top-three looks safe, but order could go a lot of ways. Eric Shanteau has a chance to earn a podium position as well.

50 Fly
1. Cesar Cielo, Brazil
2. Matt Targett, Australia
3. Milorad Cavic, Serbia
4. Steffen Deibler, Germany
*If allowed to compete, Cielo’s raw speed earns him the win here. Targett is always a force in the 50 fly.

100 Fly
1. Michael Phelps, USA
2. Milorad Cavic, Serbia
3. Takuro Fujii, Japan
*Phelps won’t be challenged in this one. However, wide open behind him.

200 Fly
1. Michael Phelps, USA
2. Takeshi Matsuda, Japan
3. Wu Peng, China
*Phelps has dropped a few 200 flys this year, but he will be ready to step it up when it counts. Look for a 1:52.

Shanghai 2011: Predictions, Part Two

2011-07-18T12:03:00.002-04:00

Shanghai 2011: Predictions, Part One

2011-07-17T10:40:00.003-04:00

We are just one week away from the start of pool swimming at the 2011 FINA World Championships in Shanghai. Instead of discussing storylines headed into the meet as I so often do, I decided instead to post my predictions in four parts, and under each prediction, I included some of my thoughts headed in to the meet. While in many cases this meet is much more straightforward in predicting than a national-level meet, there is more opportunity for a swimmer to come out of the woodwork to win a medal. So we will see how this goes. This first round of predictions includes the women’s freestyle, backstroke, and IM events. Look for the remaining women’s predictions tomorrow, followed by the men’s on Tuesday and Wednesday.

50 Free
1. Ranomi Kromowidjojo, Netherlands
2. Britta Steffen, Germany
3. Therese Alshammar, Sweden
*Young Dutch superstar takes the win ahead of two veterans.

100 Free
1. Ranomi Kromowidjojo, Netherlands
2. Fran Halsall, Great Britain
3. Natalie Coughlin, USA
*Coughlin holds off Femke Heemskerk for a surprise third-place finish.

200 Free
1. Federica Pellegrini, Italy
2. Allison Schmitt, USA
3. Camille Muffat, France
*Schmitt continues her run as second-best in this event and pushes Pellegrini all the way.

400 Free
1. Rebecca Adlington, Great Britain
2. Federica Pellegrini, Italy
3. Camille Muffat, France
*Olympic champion takes the field on the final 75 meters. Americans Sutton and Hoff have serious medal potential.

800 Free
1. Rebecca Adlington, Great Britain
2. Chloe Sutton, USA
3. Kate Ziegler, USA
*Should be a strong win for Adlington, with the Americans having strong challenges from Shao Yiwen, Katie Goldman, and Lotte Friis for the medals.

1500 Free
1. Lotte Friis, Denmark
2. Chloe Sutton, USA
3. Keri-Anne Payne, Great Britain
*Wide open race. Look for Kristel Kobrich, Melissa German, and Li Xuanxu to push.

50 Back
1. Aya Terakawa, Japan
2. Anastasia Zueva, Russia
3. Gao Chang, China
*Terakawa has dominated the sprint back all year on the international stage, but this could really be a toss-up.

100 Back
1. Zhao Jing, China
2. Aya Terakawa, Japan
3. Natalie Coughlin, USA
*Defending champion Gemma Spofforth could push, but these three should stand above.

200 Back
1. Kirsty Coventry, Zimbabwe
2. Zhao Jing, China
3. Missy Franklin, USA
*Olympic champion prevails in tight race with Chinese threat. Franklin shows off the results of her superb season.

200 IM
1. Yi Shiwen, China
2. Ariana Kukors, USA
3. Stephanie Rice, Australia
*Give an edge to these three for podium spots since Alicia Coutts also swims the 100 fly final earlier that session.

400 IM
1. Yi Shiwen, China
2. Stephanie Rice, Australia
3. Hannah Miley, Great Britain
*American Elizabeth Beisel will be dangerously close to a medal, and defending champion Katinka Hosszu could be a factor as well.

World Championships, Eleven Days Out

2011-07-13T21:10:00.002-04:00

It has been far too long since I last sat down to write a swimming blog. In the past month and a half, fast swims have come from all corners of the globe, but I have not felt like I had anything to add to the already-outstanding coverage coming from the established sources and other blogs. However, with World Championships just days away, it is hard to contain a swim geek’s excitement. Storylines such as Cesar Cielo’s possible suspension, the Phelps-Lochte showdowns, and the rise of Sun Yang are currently being talked about on every other outlet. Thus, in this blog, I will discuss some of the not-much-talked-about storylines headed into the big show. Additionally, I am pleased to announce I will once again hold a prediction contest for the World Championships!

After successful prediction contest for U.S. Nationals and Pan Pacific Championships last summer, I will once again ask for all the swim geeks out there to submit their top-three swimmers in every event. I have already informed a number of the participants in my recent contests with hopes that we can get many more than ever before! Scoring will be based on the system I used last year with a couple adjustments; picking the correct first place finisher earns nine points, six points for second, and four points for third. A swimmer that finishes in the top-three but not in the predicted spot earns one point.

The contest will include all pool events, including relays and non-Olympic events. I included the Open Water 10k last summer, but predicting all the Open Water races would be much tougher and also would require a much earlier deadline. As of Wednesday, July 13, the final psych sheets had not yet been released, and the Open Water competition begins Tuesday. As soon as the psych sheets are released, I will post them on my Twitter and Facebook pages. Additionally, any help organizing the received predictions would be much appreciated. I will be swimming in my state championship meet until Sunday, July 24 and will not be blogging at full capacity until the next day.

I would like to have all predictions in to me ASAP, preferably by Wednesday, July 20. However, the final deadline is Friday, July 22 at 2:00 PM eastern time. By that point, whether or not Cesar Cielo will be allowed to swim will still be unanswered, so please send me a fourth swimmer in each event in which you pick Cielo. The medalists will be bumped up accordingly if Cielo is suspended. Please email me your lists at drieder@comcast.net.

Now, back to swimming! Today, Tom Willdridge posted a blog over at Speed Endurance where he and I provide lists of who we think the most underrated potential superstars are in every event headed into Shanghai. For the majority of events, I picked swimmers who are not usually picked as medalists but certainly have the potential to medal based on experience and potential. However, in some cases, I listed swimmers who I have predicted to medal but are surprisingly underrated. Three of such swimmers include Ous Mellouli (men’s 1500 free), Liam Tancock (men’s 50 back), and Allison Schmitt (women’s 200 free).

All the conversations about the men’s 1500 start and end with Sun Yang. The Chinese star and Asian Games gold medalist has been tipped to go under Grant Hackett’s decade-old world record of 14:34.56 in the event. But what about Ous Mellouli? He is the reigning Olympic Champion and World Champion in both short and long course. Still, no one is giving him a chance to win, some saying they can’t see him within eight seconds! The way I see it, Sun Yang has not yet stepped up on the international stage. I probably will predict him to win gold, but Mellouli will not let him run away with the title.

Likewise, in the men’s 50 back, the conversations revolve around Frenchman Camille Lacourt. At the European Championships last year, Lacourt clocked 24.07 to nearly crack Liam Tancock’s world record of 24.04, and many are predicting him to hit the target at World Champs this year. And on every prediction list, Tancock is in the number two spot. Despite dominating this event on the world stage two years ago and Commonwealth stage last year, no one can see Tancock beating the French phenom. But just as is the case with Mellouli, he has the experience of winning a world title, and he could throw in a push.

In Rome, the women’s 200 free was the domain of Federica Pellegrini, and she won by two seconds over Allison Schmitt. Schmitt won the Pan Pacific title last year, establishing herself as the clear world number two in the event, behind Pellegrini’s win at the European championships. This year, however, the landscape of the event is different; Frenchwoman Camille Muffat and Aussies Kylie Palmer and Bronte Barratt have all posted blistering times early this year to establish them as challengers to Pellegrini’s throne. Schmitt, meanwhile, posted best times to win the 200 and 500 free at the NCAA Championships and has gone much faster than her usual in-season times, but many predictors still have a tough time placing her in their top-three. However, I have been very impressed with Schmitt this year, and I think she is ready to step up and challenge Pellegrini. She will be the silver medalist in my predictions.

The men’s 100 free is an event in disarray with several potential scratches. As mentioned above, Cesar Cielo could be facing a brief suspension for a positive drug test, while we recently learned that young Aussie James Magnussen could miss the Championships after being diagnosed with pneumonia. In the 100 free, Cielo is known for going out hard and bringing his competitors along with him; I believed that without Cielo in the race, no one will really force the pace in the field. However, if Magnussen withdraws, as rumors have indicated, Olympic silver medalist Eamon Sullivan would receive the replacement spot. Third at Trials behind Magnussen and James Roberts, Sullivan has been extremely injury-prone as of late but has since Trials been relatively clean. Like Cielo, Sullivan will always be out fast in a race, and if he gets into the 100 free final, he could be the one that everyone sets out to catch. I don’t think he can beat Cielo (if he can swim it), Nathan Adrian, or Brent Hayden, but he is always a threat.

On the other side of the world, the University of Georgia will play host to some top swimmers at a Sectionals meet this weekend. Top swimmers from SwimMAC and Auburn that are not going to the World Championships will compete in Athens as a last tune-up before U.S. Nationals. Along with Americans Josh Schneider, Davis Tarwater, and Mark Dylla, Frenchwoman Laure Manaudou is scheduled to make her return to competition following a year-long retirement. The Manaudou soap opera of the past four years is well-known. After winning a medal of each color at the 2004 Olympics, she broke Janet Evans’ 400 free world record in 2006 and then won four medals at the 2007 World Championships. Following love drama and coaching changes, Manaudou retired after a terrible showing at the 2008 Olympics but announced her comeback last summer after giving birth to daughter Manon with fellow French Olympian Fred Bousquet.

Now training with Bousquet and coach Brett Hawke at Auburn, Manaudou is swimming the 50, 100, and 200 free, and 100 and 200 back this weekend at Sectionals. She is no longer focusing on the 400 free, the event in which she won gold in 2004, but rather putting efforts towards the shorter distances. I don’t expect much from Manaudou in her first meet in three years, but this Sectionals meet starts the next chapter in her famous swimming career.

Which Current Male High School Swimmer Has the Best Shot to Make the 2012 Olympic Team?

2011-05-20T12:17:00.002-04:00

“Which current male high school swimmer has the best shot to make the 2012 Olympic team?” This question is The Swimmers’ Circle’s current featured poll as well as a question posed to me back in December. The poll offers the options of six of the best high school swimmers in the country right now, including Clay Youngquist, David Nolan, Kip Darmody, Nicholas Caldwell, Ryan Murphy, and Arthur Frayler. Youngquist made headlines as the Junior National champion in the 200 free, while Caldwell took the 400 free at that meet. Darmody won the B-final of the loaded 100 back at Senior Nationals, and fellow backstroker Murphy won the 200 at Juniors. Frayler is the only one on the list with senior international team experience, having swum the mile at Pan Pacs, and Nolan made headlines when he shattered three national high school records at the Pennsylvania state meet.

The most popular choice on the list is David Nolan. He swam times of 19-mid in the 50 free, 42-low in the 100 free, 45-mid in the 100 back, and 1:41-mid in the 200 IM, the latter of which would have won NCAAs. Nolan is a potential Trials finalist in up to six events, including the 100/200 free, 100/200 back, 100 fly, and 200 IM, but does he have what it takes to get over the incumbent depth on the start list? Ryan Lochte and Michael Phelps loom in the 200 IM, with Eric Shanteau and Tyler Clary nipping at their heels. Nolan may have a shot at the 200 IM if Phelps chooses to skip it, but chances of that are slim in the first place. In relay events, he has been talked about as a potential 100 free contender, but, again, a 48-mid effort will be necessary to make top-six, the U.S. has been growing more and more sprint depth, with the likes of Adrian, Lochte, Phelps, Lezak, Grevers, Weber-Gale, Berens, Robison, Brunelli, Savulich, and the list goes on.

I picked Clay Youngquist as the most likely 2012 Olympian of any current high schooler. Youngquist crushed other junior-level swimmers last summer in the 200 free, swimming 1:48.44 to win the Junior Pan Pacific title. That time matched Charlie Houchin’s yearly best to make Youngquist the equal-eighth-fastest American this year. That time stood less than a second behind Dave Walters’ 1:47.78, which he swam to make the World Championships team. Ironically, Youngquist will join Walters in Texas in September, as he chases a spot on the Olympic 4x200 free relay. The competition will be tough; aside from the central core of U.S. swimmers that will swim in Shanghai (Phelps, Lochte, Vanderkaay, Berens, Dwyer, and Walters), Youngquist will face tough competition for a spot from Matt McLean, Tom Shields, and Longhorn teammate Dax Hill. However, the last few spots in a relay event are always up for grabs, and for that reason Youngquist has the best shot of any current high schooler to end up in London.

The high schooler with the best shot to earn an individual berth is Arthur Frayler. At Nationals last summer, Frayler placed fourth in the 1500 free, and he made the Pan Pacs team based on that result. He has taken huge chunks of time off his mile in recent years; at the CeraVe Invitational last January, he swam in the high-15:30s, a lifetime best. The time was down just under 15:30 by April at the Ohio State Grand Prix. In his swim at Long Course Nationals, he clocked 15:07.37, which ended 2010 as the 15th best in the world. Already this year, Frayler’s in-season times have been on par with and in some cases faster than those which he swam last year. Chad LaTourette leads the way in terms of top milers in the country, after finishing last year ranked third in 14:54.48, and Peter Vanderkaay is also a veteran who poses a strong threat. Sean Ryan, Michael Klueh, Michael McBroom, Andrew Gemmell, and Ryan Feeley are among the top challengers to those top two, and it should be another great race come Olympic Trials. However, Frayler is by far the youngest in the mix, and two more years of training under Richard Shoulberg at Germantown Academy will put him in a great spot down the line in Omaha.

Because of relays, I think Clay Youngquist is the most likely current high school swimmer to make it to London next year. However, it is even more likely that no high schooler will make the cut in Omaha next July. For instance, this summer’s World Championship team will be composed of 100% post-grads, since Nathan Adrian, Scot Robison, Scott Spann, and Conor Dwyer all exhausted their NCAA eligibility this year. Additionally, only two collegians (Adrian and Spann) and no high schoolers swam the U.S. men’s team in Beijing, a huge decrease from the six teenagers that had highlighted the team at the Sydney Olympics in 2000. That year, Michael Phelps and Aaron Peirsol both left Sydney to return to high school, while Ian Crocker, Klete Keller, and Erik Vendt went straight to their freshman years at college. Thus, a swimmer as young as Frayler, Youngquist, or Nolan on the team would be surprising, and I don’t think it will happen. Still, it remains an interesting story to watch in the lead-up to Trials next summer.

Charlotte UltraSwim: Day Four

2011-05-15T21:34:00.003-04:00

The 2011 Charlotte UltraSwim has come to a close. In addition to some intriguing individual storylines, one pervading theme this entire weekend has been the race for $20,000 grand prize for top performer of the meet. In the end, buoyed by her amazing swims in the 100 and 200 breast, Rebecca Soni won with 2283 points, followed closely by Missy Franklin (2267) and Eric Shanteau (2232). All three have been on fire this weekend, establishing themselves as top contenders in the world rankings. Tonight, however, two new swimmers moved into the top-ten in the world rankings in their respective events: Michael Phelps in the men’s 200 back and Natalie Coughlin in the women’s 100 free.

Phelps put on a show tonight in the 200 back, winning in 1:57.20 to move up to fifth in the world. Among Americans, he stands behind only Tyler Clary (1:56.61), and he moves ahead of rival Ryan Lochte (1:57.63), who took second tonight in 1:58.82. The fact that Phelps could post such a fast 200 back raises the question of why he could not do the same in the 200 free. What could Phelps be doing so that the one event on which he is not focused is his best swim of the weekend?

The only possible explanation I can come up with is that he is putting so much training emphasis on free and fly that his racing performances actually suffer. In essence, he has tired them out from training, but the times will see huge jumps forward by the end of the season. Since he is not swimming backstroke at Worlds, he has not trained too much of it, and thus it feels almost “rested.” After a mixed yet disappointing weekend of results for Phelps, this could be a good sign going forward for the greatest Olympian of all time.

Both 100 free races produced faster-than-expected results. On the ladies’ side, five of the six who will represent the U.S. in the 400 free relay in Shanghai competed, and Jessica Hardy did not only because of a hyper-extended elbow she received yesterday in the 50 free. Still, all five broke 55 seconds, an outstanding achievement for this point in the season. Coughlin’s winning time of 54.19 marks a huge improvement over her winning time of 54.86 from last year. A similar end-of-season improvement would put her in the mix for an individual medal in this event at the World Championships. Additionally, all cut time from their season bests, leading one to believe that the U.S. women could challenge the Dutch favorites in the 400 free relay in July.

While none of the men posted world-threatening times, three members of the World Champs team broke 50 seconds. This note is especially significant when considering that none broke the barrier last year. Hometown favorite Ricky Berens won in 49.46, earning him his first-ever UltraSwim victory after previously finishing third (100 free, 2009) and second (200 free, 2011). In the 100 free especially, Berens has swum more than a second faster than at this point last year, providing tangible evidence of his success at his new training base at Trojan Swim Club. Moreover, Scot Robison (49.90) and Garrett Weber-Gale (49.97) laid down exceptionally solid mid-season marks. These two will provide important depth for the 400 free relay in Shanghai, where the American men are slight favorites. Berens only made the team for the 800 free relay, so he may or may not swim the shorter relay.

SwimMAC Carolina, the host of the UltraSwim, has recently served as a point of concurrence for some of the best post-grads in swimming. Eugene Godsoe moved to Charlotte after a superb performance at the 2010 NCAAs, and this weekend he put the swimming community on notice with a series of superb swims and lifetime bests, including placing runner-up in the 100 fly. Veteran Davis Tarwater, the third-place finisher in the 200 fly at the 2008 Olympic Trials, recently returned to full training in Charlotte after an off-year, and he impressed this weekend with third-place finishes in the 100 free and 200 fly. Now, SwimMAC hosts another Olympic hopeful named Eric Knight.

Almost six years ago, Knight arrived as a walk-on to the George Mason swim team having never trained but with loads of potential. In four years, he had become the Colonial Athletic Association swimmer of the year before retiring for the first time in March of 2010. However, by September, he arrived in Charlotte out of shape for a tryout to join SwimMAC’s Team Elite. Seeing potential, however, David Marsh gave Knight a chance. Knight would swim with the George Mason team for until May to get back in shape while he finished his master’s degree before moving to Charlotte. Indeed, Knight just graduated and moved to Charlotte this week, but his teammates and coach are already impressed.

At UltraSwim, Knight swam in multiple events, finishing as high as 18th in the 200 breast. And apparently, Marsh has already begun to adjust his stroke, believing such adjustments could lead Knight as far as an Olympic berth next year. His best chances lie in the relay events, especially the 200 free, where Marsh believes there is an opening for a new generation of mid-distance stars in America. According to Nick Thoman, yet another Charlotte-based pro swimmer, with a little bit of technique work, Knight will be able to tap into his already-impressive physique and become something great before Omaha next year. I’m not sure he can make it to the Olympics, but his journey will sure be one to watch.

And now my blog series on the Charlotte UltraSwim comes to a close. As usual, this meet has been fast, furious, and exciting. Some stars shined bright while others looked dim, but the best swimming is ahead as we look forward to this summer’s World Championships in Shanghai and beyond that U.S. Nationals at Stanford. Even further beyond but already looming are next year’s Olympic Trials and London Olympics. This summer of swimming will be great, as always, and I will be here, at TheSwimGeek.com, blogging all along the way.

Charlotte UltraSwim: Day Three

2011-05-15T00:07:00.005-04:00

Another session of finals in Charlotte has brought yet more massive storylines. Michael Phelps once again embarassed himself with yet another crushing loss in the 200 fly, a race that until last month, he had not lost in nine years. However, if I have learned anything in my years covering the sport, Phelps cannot be judged right now. Phelps himself doesn’t seem exceptionally upset about the loss, meaning that he may just know what he’s doing after all. Often the best just know what it takes. Take for example Cullen Jones, who took several months of a break before getting into the shape needed to beat Josh Schneider in Thursday’s swim-off. He only had swum one meet since Nationals, but he did just what he needed to do to win. As Jones proved, the best know what it takes. For that reason, I reserve judgment on Phelps, and instead I will focus on some of the more exciting storylines of the night.

The most impressive swims came in the last event, the 200 breast. On the ladies’ side, Rebecca Soni (2:23.33) and Amanda Beard (2:26.24) established solid markers for this point in the season, while Eric Shanteau came in at 2:10.95 to win the men’s 200 breast. While he fell short of his 2009 suited meet record of 2:09.71 and even his winning time from last year (2:10.59), he showed once more that his move to the Trojan Swim Club in L.A. is paying off. Tonight, he commented on Twitter about having more speed and being able to take his races out quicker at a lesser expenditure of energy. This over-expenditure was duly noted in his lackluster swims last summer, where he ended up using too much energy to try – and fail – to get out quickly and not have his usual closing speed.

Additionally, this swim puts Shanteau where he needs to be internationally; Shanteau now ranks eighth in the world, but third among non-Japanese swimmers (only two of whom will swim at Worlds). Shanteau did not make the top lists of international swimmers in the 200 breast last year, but tonight’s swim serves as a warning: don’t count out Eric Shanteau. Additionally, look out for another fast swim from Shanteau in tomorrow’s 200 IM, where he faces star power in Ryan Lochte and Markus Rogan. Just as is the case with the 200 breast, Shanteau has international potential in his old signature event, the 200 IM.

Many had anticipated the showdown between Missy Franklin and Natalie Coughlin in the women’s 100 back. After Franklin’s huge time drop in yesterday’s 200 free, there had been talk of her dropping into the 59-low range. However, it was not to be, as the veteran got a win on the youngster tonight. Coughlin won in 1:00.02 to claim seventh in the world, followed closely by Franklin (1:00.22) and young stars Rachel Bootsma (1:00.33) and Elizabeth Pelton (1:00.40), all well under Pelton’s old meet record of 1:00.64. Coughlin and Franklin swam right next to each other in lanes 2 and 3, and one key difference was obvious in their races; Coughlin came up a bodylength ahead of Franklin off both walls. Still, Franklin made up enough ground to the point where if the race was 103 meters, the win would have easily been hers. The fact that her details such as starts and underwaters need so much work is simply exciting for her future potential in the 100 back.

On the men’s side, national champion David Plummer took down hometown favorite Nick Thoman in the men’s 100 back, 54.04 to 54.15.. Plummer moved into a tie with Greece’s Aristeidis Grigoriadis for ninth in the world, while Thoman is ranked seventh at 53.93 from the Indy Grand Prix. Thus, despite the retirement of Aaron Peirsol, the U.S. still has five of the top thirteen 100 backstrokers in the world, none having swum rested, including Lochte (54.08), Matt Grevers (54.08), and Phelps (54.14). Most interestingly, though, was how the race played out in the water. Plummer went out fast, in 25.80, before fading with a second 50 split of 28.24. Thoman, meanwhile sat back in third at 26.61 before turning on the jets with a 27.54 homecoming split. Clearly, the effects of hard training has forced adjustments in race strategy. Still, all the times are impressive as the two men look forward to the World Champs this summer.

As previously mentioned, Cullen Jones defeated Josh Schneider in a one-on-one swim-off Thursday to secure his spot on the World Champs team. The pair clocked times of 22.24 and 22.28, respectively. After the loss, Schneider claimed to be was “mopey” and failed to respond especially well to his first taste of adversity in swimming, after a constant string of successes. Tonight, however, he got back on track with a victory. Too close to call the whole way between Schneider, Jones, and their SwimMAC teammate Nick Brunelli, Schneider “toasted” Jones by one one-hundredth of a second for the win, 22.51 to 22.52, with Brunelli just behind at 22.56. Of course, both Jones and Schneider had shaved and rested some for their swim-off, so the time is perhaps best for the veteran Brunelli.

Afterwards, Schneider described the huge confidence boost he received from this victory. After the race, he had a huge smile on his face, and he seemed far more alive in the post-race interview than he did following his loss to Jones on Thursday. Even though Schneider will not be going to Worlds, he now feels even more the will and need to be the best, and the results of this weekend will lead to more successes for Josh Schneider down the line. He will be a big go-to man for the U.S. sprint team for a while, and his minor setback this weekend will only lead to bigger and better things at this summer’s World University Games or next year’s Olympic Trials or down the line.

Following the racing tonight, Markus Rogan lit up Twitter. He relayed information through UltraSwim2011, the meet directors, looking forward to his 200 IM tomorrow and complementing coach David Marsh on putting on such an awesome meet. From personal experience, I know that UltraSwim is indeed amazing and a great topic for swim geeking! Later, he claimed on his own account that “age makes me slower but let’s me keep going longer. I just can't peak in a minute anymore.” Essentially, Rogan believes that at his relatively old age, he needs to use a challenging race to put forth a great effort and cannot simply depend on natural talent anymore. Thus, he has been much more successful as of late in the 200 free and 200 IM than the 100 back, in which he finished sixth tonight in 55.87, a swim he described as “terrible.” Wise words of advice from a swimming legend.

Finally tonight, I conclude with an excerpt from The Screaming Viking’s latest edition of “Gutter Talk” over at The Swim Brief. He posted in response to Jones’ swim-off victory on Thursday

"I just lost a lot of money. Man, I suck at picking winners." David R.- Self-Proclaimed 'King of the Swim Geeks'

For the record, I did not actually bet money on the result, but I can see myself losing money on a failed prediction. Such is the nature of swim geeking!

Charlotte UltraSwim: Day Two

2011-05-13T23:47:00.002-04:00

Tonight at the Charlotte UltraSwim, we saw some amazing swims, while others did not live up to expectations. Missy Franklin continued her now-year-long coming out party in defeating America’s World Championship representatives in the 200 free, while Rebecca Soni and Jessica Hardy lit up the water in the 100 breast. Their Trojan teammate Eric Shanteau clocked an impressive time to win the 100 breast after three of his teammates posted a 1-2-3 finish over Ryan Lochte in the 200 free. Finally, a few surprising performances showed who could really break onto the U.S. scene in the upcoming years.

Franklin won the 200 free in 1:57.66 tonight, breaking Dagny Knutson’s meet record of 1:57.83 set last year. More significantly, she took more than a second off her lifetime best! Her old top time had stood at 1:58.75 from the Indy Grand Prix in March, where she took second to Katie Hoff (1:57.97). Now, this young swimmer – the only one younger than me on the National Team – has made yet another statement of intent. Last summer, she failed to break 1:59 in the 200 free and finished tenth at Nationals, thus missing the 800 free relay. By this point, any relay this summer without Franklin will be surprising. That race will be close, but the Americans have a strong shot; American record-holder Allison Schmitt took second today in 1:58.11, nearly five seconds faster than the 2:02.94 she swam to finish 13th last year. Dana Vollmer took nearly two seconds off her season-best. Things are certainly looking up for this squad.

Things look even better for Franklin. Having swum best times in the 200 free as well as both backstrokes at the Indy Grand Prix, she could be on track to crush those backstroke times as well. Already, she is ranked fourth in the world in the 100 back at 59.56 and third in the 200 at 2:07.97. All of the times in front of her come from various worldwide national championships. She has the potential tomorrow to approach Aya Terakawa’s world leading time in the 100 (59.17) and perhaps even Belinda Hocking’s 2:06.88 in the 200. What has become clear, however, is that Missy Franklin is on the world scene, and she is here to stay.

Rebecca Soni did it again in tonight’s 100 breast. She clocked 1:05.57, the fastest time in the world this year. She has only been faster once without the aid of a techsuit – when she won Pan Pacs in 1:04.93. She just won’t stop, and I expect another outstanding performance in tomorrow’s 200 breast. Speaking of, that world record of 2:20.12 held by Annamay Pierse has been around longer than expected already.

However, Soni’s teammate Jessica Hardy provided the real treat; just as was the case at last week’s Maria Lenk Trophy in Rio, she stayed within a half second. Her time of 1:05.90 marks the first time she has broken into the 1:05 range. In fact, it is her first below 1:06 with the exception of her world record of 1:04.45. She hasn’t beaten Soni since Olympic Trials, but finally, she is back to the best in the 100 breast. Amanda Beard will swim at Worlds rather than Hardy, showing more of America’s breaststroke strength. Beard, meanwhile, clocked 1:08.46 tonight, a superb mid-season outing for her in her first race since Pan Pacs.

Eric Shanteau also won the 100 breast tonight, clocking 1:01.49, moving to just behind Mark Gangloff (1:01.43) as the second-fastest American this year. His new training base in L.A. has clearly been beneficial for former Texas-trained swimmer; he has found speed he has never seen without the aid of high-tech swimsuits. Look for an awesome 200 breast tomorrow; this year, only two non-Japanese swimmers have broken 2:11, and Shanteau could very well become number three.

Meanwhile, fellow Longhorn-turned-Trojan Ricky Berens looked more than solid with a second place effort of 1:49.25 in the 200 free. A few spots back, Florida-trained Conor Dwyer clocked a 1:49.56 for fifth place. This time is almost a second faster than he swam at this meet last year. Thus, with a best time of 1:47.35 from last summer, he could clock as low as the 1:45-range on a relay split this year. Dwyer had his NCAA hopes cut short by illness, but the time has come for him to make a mark internationally. The first step will be his spot on America’s 800 free relay this summer in Shanghai, where he has the potential to earn a finals bid. While veterans Michael Phelps and Ryan Lochte swam less than stellar races tonight, the performances of Berens and Dwyer highlight just how good America remains in the men’s 200 free.

Phelps, meanwhile, performed well down from expectations tonight. As quoted by Mike Gustafson, his coach Bob Bowman said tonight, “I can’t make [Phelps] do what he doesn’t want to do.” More to come on this extremely flat performance later in the weekend when we see where Phelps stands in the 200 fly and 200 back.

Finally, the most surprising swim of the night: Eugene Godsoe’s 50.39 100 free relay lead-off. Godsoe made splashes last year when he won the 100 back at NCAAs and took third in both the 200 back and 100 fly. He did not swim especially well at Nationals, only placing 11th in the 100 back, but he stepped up to the plate today at UltraSwim. First, he used a strong second length to take second in a tight 100 fly in 53.22, just behind Tyler McGill (53.15 – ironically the exact same time he swam at this meet last year) and ahead of Tim Phillips (53.26). In comparison, Godsoe’s previous best time before today was 53.96.

Later on in the session, he led off the winning 400 free relay for SwimMAC in 50.39, obliterating his former best time of 51.11. When watching, I thought one of his more celebrated teammates like Josh Schneider or Nick Brunelli took the lead-off leg; I did not expect nearly so much from someone so inexperienced. However, we know must look at Godsoe with an outside shot to get on the 400 free relay in 2012. Out of nowhere, he has come into his own with a real shot. In the short-term, however, look for a great race with teammate Nick Thoman, Olympic silver medalist Matt Grevers, National champion David Plummer, and 200 back Olympic champ Ryan Lochte in the 100 back tomorrow, a race that could once again shape up as the race of the meet.

Charlotte UltraSwim: Day One

2011-05-13T19:58:00.000-04:00

Most thought that tonight would be Josh Schneider’s night. Almost all of the experts I talked to picked him. At The Swim Brief’s Facebook page, all three posted in separate comments that Schneider would win. All the polls around the internet had Schneider pegged to come out on top. Personally, I thought Schneider would win. I said on my Facebook page two hours before the race that he would post a time around 22.0 to win. After what I had seen from both so far this year, I did not believe either had enough time to come down to being fully tapered for this showdown. Nonetheless, the two teammates would square off on even terms.

What a showdown it was. Like I predicted, neither man bettered their shared 21.97 from Irvine last summer, but Jones blazed out on the start and first 25 and held off Schneider down the stretch. Schneider swam his 50 with no breath and made a push down the stretch, but even a great finish could not bring him over the top of his more veteran teammate. Jones won in 22.24, followed by Schneider in 22.28. Jones moved to 11th in the world, while Schneider is tied for 15th. As Jones indicated in an interview, both have further to come down in training in looking towards their big meet this summer. While Jones will go the Worlds in Shanghai, Schneider defaults onto the World University Games team, where he will compete in the 50 free and most likely 400 free relay.

One of the interesting storylines through the remainder of the meet will be how fast the two men, both shaved and on some rest, will swim. The normal 50 free event could be especially interesting, where Schneider could beat Jones, and both could swim faster. With the absence of Fred Bousquet and the Auburn sprint crew, the two should be the class of that field. In the 100 free, the two men will be in a hotly-contested race with Matt Grevers, Scot Robison, Garrett Weber-Gale, Bobby Savulich, Simon Burnett, and Ricky Berens, the last of whom swam under 50 three times last week at the Maria Lenk Trophy in Rio. Their rest will show in that field, and I could see one of them walking away on top.

Tonight, Chloe Sutton put on a show in the women’s 1,500 free. She clocked 16:16.11 to claim ninth in the world. She swam her last mile at this meet one year ago, where she took second to Emily Brunemann in 16:21.12. She also just missed her lifetime best of 16:12.56 set wearing a polyurethane suit at the World Championships in Rome, where she finished eighth. However, perhaps the most significant information from the swim came out on her Facebook page shortly after: “Swam a super easy 16:16.11 and won tonight. My heart rate was probably about 120 the whole way until I threw down a 1:00 coming home. So excited for the rest of the meet!”

This news hints to me that not only does her mile have the potential to be much faster, but her other distances do as well. If she swims to her potential and normal race strategy in the 400 and 800, she could approach her lifetime best times of 4:05.19 and 8:24.51, respectively. If she does that (and not simply swim to win as she often does at these meets), she could be in the running for the $20,000 grand prize to be awarded to the top performer at the end of the meet. She will need to maximize points in her weaker events, namely the 200 free. For example, if she can earn points as pole setter (top prelim qualifier), that would provide a significant bonus, all of which she will need. But this could be another lucrative weekend for the 400 free Pan Pacific champ.

One of the most hyped-up races of the meet is tomorrow’s 100 breast for women. Rebecca Soni is the World and Pan Pacific Champion, Olympic silver medalist, and owner of the fastest time in the world the last two years. She has not lost a race at the 100 or 200 breast long course since the World Championships in Rome. However, world record-holder Jessica Hardy has been making a strong push as of late in the 100 breast. Since officially being cleared to swim in the London Olympics (provided she qualifies) last month, she ripped up her competition at the Maria Lenk Trophy in Rio, posting the top time in the world in the 50 breast (30.17) and second-fastest in the 100 (1:06.13), finishing second to Soni in the later race. She also clocked the fifth-fastest time in the world in the 50 free (24.80) the eighth-fastest in the 100 free (54.28) for good measure, winning both.

Hardy has not beaten Soni in a long course 100 breast since Olympic Trials. Despite the fact that Hardy did not qualify to contest the 100 breast in Shanghai, many feel that this could change soon. Both clocked absolutely phenomenal times in Brazil, both faster than Olympic gold medalist Leisel Jones swam at her Nationals. This week, both could be faster, as Hardy looks to break into the 1:05 range for the first time ever in a textile suit. I will predict we see Hardy out first to the wall, but Soni will edge her at the finish. Both will hit 1:05s, with Soni taking down her meet record of 1:05.90 set last year, in what was arguably the most impressive performance of the meet. For more good measure, NCAA Champion (and Canadian World Championship qualifier) Jillian Tyler as well 1996 Olympic and 2003 World silver medalist Amanda Beard will both be among the competitors and challengers. Notably, Beard does occupy the second spot in the 100 breast for Shanghai.

Each race tomorrow brings a number of interesting storylines. Missy Franklin, now 16, will try to take down World bronze medalist Dana Vollmer in the women’s 200 free, while Vollmer has her sights set on improving upon her fourth-ranked 57.50 in the 100 fly from the Michigan Grand Prix. Olympic champ Michael Phelps faces a tough field in the men’s 200 free, including Ryan Lochte, Peter Vanderkaay, Markus Rogan, Conor Dwyer, Scot Robison, Dominik Meichtry, and hometown favorite Ricky Berens. Mark Gangloff and Eric Shanteau renew their rivalry in the men’s 100 breast, while Tim Phillips will face a hard-charging Tyler McGill at the finish of the men’s 100 fly. World Champion Katinka Hosszu and American Olympian Elizabeth Beisel highlight the field for the women’s 400 IM, while University of North Carolina star Tyler Harris tops the psych sheet in the 400 IM. Should be quite a day of racing.

Charlotte UltraSwim: Day Zero

2011-05-11T21:29:00.000-04:00

Hours after the completion of the 10k Open Water race at Pan Pacs, I wrote that this blog would be less active for the ensuing months. The next day, I began an extremely intensive course load for my junior year in high school. That was nine months ago. Since then, we witnessed Ryan Lochte making magic happen at the World Short Course Championships in Dubai and the Cal Bears sweeping the NCAA Championships. Naoya Tomita stepped up to defeat Kosuke Kitajima in the 200 breast at Japanese Nationals to establish himself as arguably the best in the distance in the world, and Mark Dylla overcame his demons to finally win his deserved NCAA title in the 200 fly. Since then, I became a high school state champion (the slowest in the nation in the 500 free) and made changes in my life and grew up. But one thing hasn’t changed: my passion for swimming lives on; I am the swim geek, and I’m back.

What a better time to return to full-time blogging than the eve of this year’s Charlotte UltraSwim. Last year, I had the privilege of covering that meet from the pool deck and really experiencing the vibes of a professional swim meet. While I am not making the trip up to Charlotte this year, I will be posting blogs this weekend to give my perspective on what is going down in Charlotte. There are some massive storylines, from the continued Phelps vs. Lochte showdowns; Missy Franklin’s rising star clashing with Natalie Coughlin, Elizabeth Pelton, and Elizabeth Beisel; Jessica Hardy on fire once again; Rebecca Soni still superior; and the Charlotte homecomings of Ricky Berens and Scot Robison, among others. However, nothing beats the prospect of tomorrow’s one-on-one dual for a spot in Shanghai between SwimMAC teammates Cullen Jones and Josh Schneider.

Everyone knows the story. In case you don’t, I wrote a long article today describing everything that has led up to this final climax. Swimming. Legal disputes. Controversy. And more swim-offs. This story has it all, even some team drama. In an article published on the New York Times’ website today, Nick Brunelli, yet another SwimMAC elite sprinter, commented on the trash talk taking place between the two at practice. “…they weren’t joking. They meant it.” The article goes on to quote SwimMAC assistant (and former University of Georgia great) Peter Verhoef: “Unfortunately, it’s created a situation there where they each feel a certain dislike for the other person.”

Both men are confident that they can win. Each has come out and given their reasons. Schneider cites Jones’ poor practice attendance over the last year (some reports indicate he was completely out of the water from September thru December), while Jones believes he has the mental edge, partially acquired from defeating Garrett Weber-Gale in 2009 in the exact same situation. It will be one heck of a showdown and one with drastic impacts on U.S. National Team rosters. (If Schneider loses, he defaults onto the World University Games team, whereas a Schneider victory would give that spot to Josh Daniels.) Regardless of outcome, Verhoef and any fan of USA Swimming and SwimMAC would “…like them to come out of this with a hungry attitude, a feeling of let’s get back to work and push each other to be the top two in the world.”

Also tomorrow, swimmers take to the pool in the non-Olympic distance races. Each field is led by a finalist from the World Champs in Rome. Chloe Sutton, the eighth-place finisher in Rome in the women’s 1500, and eight-place finisher in the men’s 800, Peter Vanderkaay, will each swim this race as a warm-up for their signature events later in the meet. While neither is likely to have much rest, all indications point to fast swimming in Charlotte, as is always the case. Another important storyline to keep an eye on is the points system, especially since Vanderkaay walked away with the top prize of $20,000 in 2010. Unlike last year, in which swimmers earned points for the top-three places in finals, pole setter (top time after prelims), and meet records, this year’s system is based on the FINA points table, so big points are awarded for the fastest swims relative to the rest of the world in an event. A swimmer’s top two events count towards points, with bonus points awarded for any event win, pole-setting, and meet records. Should be quite a competition on that front as well.

All Great Racers Part Four

2011-04-03T20:45:00.003-04:00

Over the past two weeks, we have seen some remarkable swimming. At French nationals, the two Camilles (Lacourt and Muffat) shined, while Yannick Agnel and Fabien Gilot established themselves as legitimate individual medal hopes in freestyle events for Shanghai. Just like last year, the Cal men dominated the NCAA championships, and this time, they won the team title. Impressive performances from Nathan Adrian, Damir Dugonjic, and Tom Shields kept at bay a deep Texas team with a bright future. Meanwhile, Chinese Nationals have begun, where Yi Shiwen and Sun Yang are building upon impressive performances at last November’s Asian Games, and Brent Hayden did his job at Canadian Trials to earn a shot at reclaiming his 100 free world title. Finally, Australian Nationals have begun down under, and Alicia Coutts is proving that her performance at Commonwealth Games was no fluke. She has won the 100 fly and 200 IM in the top times in the world, both times defeating triple Olympic champ Stephanie Rice.

For me, two of the most impressive performances I’ve seen from all these meets have been those of perseverance. Both swimmers came so close, so many times in the past. Both missed chance after chance to get the job done and jump onto the next stage. Eventually, their opportunity passed; procedures changed, and other swimmers got faster, and I felt like both of these swimmers no longer had a chance to achieve the goal they had been seeking. But in the past week, in two upset performances, these swimmers pulled off the goal they had for so long been unable to achieve. One overcame three years of being on the bubble to put it together at the last possible moment. The other had continually missed his chance by hundredths but jumped into a new arena of competition with a national victory.

In 2008, Georgia freshman Mark Dylla led through the opening laps of the 200 fly, under American record-pace. At the SEC championships a month prior, Dylla had upset senior teammate Gil Stovall, the previous year’s NCAA runner-up. At the big show, however, Stovall ran down Dylla to break Mel Stewart’s 17 year-old NCAA record (1:41.78). Stovall posted a 1:41.33 as UGA ended up going 1-2 in the race. One year later, Dylla returned to the NCAA finals as a favorite. Having come close to Stovall’s NCAA record in winning SECs, many predicted a 200 fly win for Dylla as a sophomore. Dylla established a lead and took a clear advantage by the 175 mark, but Florida’s Shaune Fraser touched out Dylla at the end, 1:40.75 to 1:40.85. Both beat Stovall’s NCAA record from the year before.

After another year of disappointment, things would not get better his junior year. At the SEC Championships, Dylla took the victory in the 200 fly ahead of Fraser, but he had a battle on his hands headed into NCAAs. Fraser had looked better than Dylla early in the meet, and Cal freshman Tom Shields had put on a show in the 100 fly. However, Dylla ignored the odds and stormed away on the final 50 for a win over Fraser and Shields. Dylla’s excitement, however, was short-lived. The final results listed Fraser as the champion, with Shields second. Dylla had been disqualified for a controversial one-hand touch. He later admitted that the disappointment of that DQ had taken him serious time to overcome, but he showed comeback strength at the end of the summer at U.S. Nationals, finishing second to Michael Phelps.

Going into this year’s NCAA finals, most of the swimming community wanted to see a Dylla victory to round out his NCAA career. He won his fourth-straight SEC victory in the 200 fly with his fastest time of those four victories. However, Dylla’s chances for a title dropped drastically with results of the Pac-10 Championships. Shields clocked 1:40.31 to set a new NCAA record and move to second on the all-time list. Early in the meet, Shields won the 100 back and took second in the 100 fly and swam on two winning relays; Dylla, meanwhile, finished well down in the B-finals in the 200 IM and 100 fly. On the meet’s final day, however, a truly special performance came out. Shields led through the opening stages of the 200 fly, holding a four tenths lead at the 150 split. However, Dylla unleashed a 26.45 final 50 to out-split Shields by more than a second. In his own words, “Game. Over.”

While Dylla was charging past Shields, Stanford’s Bobby Bollier made a charge of his own. Bollier split 26.29 on the final 50, faster even than Dylla. But at that point, Dylla would not lose in his final collegiate race. He held off Bollier, 1:40.60 to 1:40.76, setting a new NCAA record. By that point, most “experts” had written off Dylla. I could not pick against someone who had already broken an NCAA record during the season. I was wrong. In that emotionally-charged performance, Dylla finally got it done.

Ben Treffers made his first mark in swimming in 2009. At the Australian Long Course Championships that year, the then-17 year-old Treffers top all qualifiers in the semi-final of the 50 back, including Olympians Ashley Delaney and Hayden Stoeckel, clocking 25.10. In the finale, Delaney won in 24.81, a new Australian record, while Treffers took second in 25.15. However, Treffers did not make the Australian World Champs team since his final time missed the “A” qualifying mark of 25.14. In the 100 back at that meet, Treffers failed to break 57 and took eighth place.

At the same meet a year later, Treffers almost missed out on qualifying yet again. In the 50 back, Stoeckel won in 25.06, Daniel Arnamnart took second in 25.08, and Treffers ended up third in 25.09, with Delaney a close fourth. At that meet, the top two in each event qualified to represent Australia at Commonwealth Games, while most third-place swimmers qualified for Pan Pacs, where they could earn the third berth for Commonwealth Games. Thus, Treffers had once again missed automatic selection by 0.01. In the 100 back, Treffers showed marked improvement to finish third in 55.00. However, things did not go his way at Pan Pacs. In the 50 back, he and Delaney had to battle it out for the final spot in Delhi, and Delaney won the silver medal in 24.98, knocking Treffers out of the 50 back. Delaney, Stoeckel, and Arnamnart all beat Treffers in the 100 back, eliminating him from Commonwealth contention.

Treffers did get some consolation with a place on Australia’s World Short Course Championships team. He won the 50 back at their Short Course Nationals and made the final of that event in Dubai. He also swam on Australia’s medley relay at that meet. However, going into this year’s Trials in Sydney, new head coach Leigh Nugent announced that 50 stroke events would no longer be used for qualifying. Essentially, any swimmer who wanted to swim the 50 back at Worlds would have to first qualify in the 100 back. With the powerhouse duo of Stoeckel and Delaney representing Australia, I felt that Treffers had little to no shot to earn a berth for the Worlds in Shanghai. I felt that he had missed his opportunity.

Treffers made his first statement in the heats of the 100 back yesterday. He clocked 54.87 for the top qualifying time, already dropping time from last year’s best of 55.00. In the semi-final, he dropped almost under 54, clocking 54.18. Going into the final, Treffers still had the top qualifying mark, ahead of Delaney (54.32) and Stoeckel (54.56). A huge showdown was brewing. In the finale, Delaney and Stoeckel both went out slowly, and Treffers took advantage, clocking a swift split of 26.22. As it would turn out, no one could catch him.

Treffers touched the wall in 53.72, holding off Stoeckel (53.87) and Delaney (54.17). The time places Treffers fourth in the world for 2011. Treffers now has secured a spot for Shanghai and is a realistic contender to make a final. At his current rate of improvement, he will be a medal threat not too far down the line. He is still only 19 years old! Even more exciting is his potential for the 50 back later this week. While his biggest drops have been in the longer races, I expect to see something impressive in the 50 as well. Even though he has already qualified for Worlds in that by virtue of his 100 win, posting a good time is still incentive. He could be close to Delaney’s Australian record of 24.81. By Shanghai, he could be in the medal conversation. The perseverance of Ben Treffers has certainly paid off; a speedy 50 backstroker two years ago has become a powerful 100 backstroker with unlimited potential.

From Sevilla to London: Open Water

2011-04-01T18:20:00.004-04:00

As I write this blog, I am concluding my visit to Spain. I have spent more than a week here and in that time visited many of the most well-known cities, including Sevilla. Sevilla hosted the World Open Water Championships in June, 2008, which served as the main qualifier for the Olympics. The top ten finishers in that 10k race three years ago qualified for the inaugural Olympic open water swim, as well as five “continental champions.” Russia swept the 10k golds in Sevilla; Larisa Ilchenko won the women’s race on her way to Olympic gold, while Vladimir Dyatchin ran down British pool Olympian David Davies for the men’s title. In that men’s race, open water stalwart Thomas Lurz grabbed third, while the race also featured Australian pool star Grant Hackett. Two-time defending 1500 free Olympian champion Hackett received a disqualification.

Among those qualifying on the Río Guadalquivir included American Mark Warkentin, who became America’s first ever Olympian in open water and the first person to qualify for the U.S. swim team for Beijing. Additionally, Warkentin won silver in the 25k in Sevilla, while Chloe Sutton matched his feat in the women’s 5k race. (Sutton did not participate in the 10k race in Sevilla but would later qualify for Beijing at a test event in June, 2008.)

Warkentin went on to finish eighth in Beijing before taking a hiatus from the sport. In September, Warkentin returned to win the Manhattan Island Marathon Swim (MIMS), defeating Bulgarian Petar Stoychev in a dominating performance, and he has begun his charge at a second Olympics. Qualifying for the London Games will take place at this summer’s World Championships in Shanghai. The top two finishers at June’s Open Water Nationals in Fort Myers will earn berths for Shanghai, where they can become Olympians. Warkentin will be one of the favorites, along with two Fullerton-trained athletes: Chip Peterson and Andrew Gemmell.

Like Warkentin, Peterson has been a pioneer for the United States in open water. At the 2005 World Champs in Montreal, Peterson won gold in the 10k. Peterson took second behind Warkentin at U.S. Trials for the Sevilla World Champs, but he finished outside of the top-ten in that race. Afterwards, he took a short hiatus from open water, focusing instead on performing for the University of North Carolina in NCAA competition. In 2010, he left UNC and moved to FAST to train with Jon Urbanchek. This paid off with a second-place finish in the 10k at U.S. Nationals in Long Beach behind the late Fran Crippen. Later that summer, Peterson participated in the World Championships in Roberval, Canada, and the Pan Pacs, also held in Long Beach. In a tight finish, Peterson out-touched Crippen for the win at Pan Pacs. He will seek a second chance for Olympic glory this summer.

Gemmell is yet another pioneer for American open water swimming. After several years locked out of the 10k race internationally, Gemmell broke out at the 2009 World Championships in Rome. He and Crippen challenged favorite Thomas Lurz and ended up finishing 2-3. Gemmell began swimming for the University of Georgia and performed well in NCAA competition. He has finaled in both the 1500 free and 400 IM at Long Course Nationals, and he placed in the top-eight at Pan Pacs in the 1500. At June’s open water National race, Gemmell finished fourth, continuing to show that he will be a major force for the Olympics. He decided to redshirt the 2010-2011 season from Georgia, moving to FAST to train with Urbanchek. Already, Gemmell’s chances look promising; he recently recorded a 15:01 1500 pull with paddles and buoy, much faster than his best time of 15:07 from Pan Pacs. In fact, 15:01.65 is the top swimming time in the world! While many open water swimmers, including Warkentin, have been faster pulling than swimming, that in-practice performance from Gemmell continues his establishment as a world threat in open water.

On the women’s side, Sutton has decided to pass up open water in Shanghai and London to focus on pool events, but her Mission Viejo teammate Christine Jennings won the gold at Pan Pacs and finished in the top-ten in Roberval. 17 year-old Eva Fabian also has extensive international experience, winning the 5k in Roberval. Fabian was in medal contention for the 10k before she received a disqualification for missing a turn buoy near the race’s end. Additionally, Emily Brunemann trains in Fullerton with Urbanchek, and she has international experience, having finished in the top-ten at the 2009 Worlds. With the recent retirement of defending champion Ilchenko, whatever two Americans qualify have a strong shot to make a mark internationally, even against powerful swimmers from Australia, Italy, and Brazil

Like with the women, the men’s 10k race is wide open. 2008 Olympic champ Maarten Van Der Weijen retired after winning gold in Beijing. Stars such as Lurz, Dyatchin, Davies, Valerio Cleri, and Eugeny Drattsev loom, but whatever two Americans qualify for Shanghai have serious potential to make a mark both there and in London. No Americans medaled in the 10k at 2010 Worlds, but Peterson finished in the top-ten, and both Gemmell and Warkentin have shown their abilities in other venues. Additionally, American Alex Meyer out-touched defending champ Cleri for the 25k world title, establishing him as yet another strong American contender. In Sevilla, only one American man made the grade for the Olympics; now, many more are in the mix, and two will be favored to advance to London.

I dedicate this blog to the late Fran Crippen, who died in an Open Water race in the United Arab Emirates on October 23, 2010.

Men's NCAA Championships Predictions

2011-03-20T22:18:00.002-04:00

Yesterday, the Cal women's team won the NCAA Championship in Austin. Not only did I predict that, but I successfully predicted the top three teams in the correct order. Of the thirteen individual events I predicted on this blog, I got nine of them right. (Note: this does not mean what I put on Podium Pursuit...) After a fairly successful hit-out last week, I am pretty confident about my men's predictions. Here goes:

Thursday, March 24:
200 Free Relay
1. Cal
2. Auburn
3. Texas

500 Free
1. Conor Dwyer, Florida
2. Matt McLean, Virginia
3. Jackson Wilcox, Texas
Darkhorse – Hassaan Abdel-Khalik, Michigan

200 IM
1. Austin Staab, Stanford
2. Austin Surhoff, Texas
3. Kyle Whitaker, Michigan
Darkhorse – Nimrod Shapira Bar-Or, Arizona

50 Free
1. Nathan Adrian, Cal
2. Jimmy Feigen, Texas
3. Vlad Morozov, USC
Darkhorse – Josh Daniels, Cal

400 Medley Relay
1. Cal
2. Florida
3. Texas

Friday, March 25:
200 Medley Relay
1. Cal
2. Texas
3. Florida

400 IM
1. Conor Dwyer, Florida
2. Bill Cregar, Georgia
3. Kyle Whitaker, Michigan
Darkhorse – Austin Surhoff, Texas

100 Fly
1. Tom Shields, Cal
2. Austin Staab, Stanford
3. Graeme Moore, Cal
Darkhorse – Mathias Gydesen, Cal

200 Free
1. Nimrod Shapira Bar-Or, Arizona
2. Scot Robison, Virginia
3. Dax Hill, Texas
Darkhorse – Scott Jostes, Texas

100 Breast
1. Damir Dugonjic, Cal
2. Scott Spann, Texas
3. Nolan Koon, Cal
Darkhorse – Adam Klein, Auburn

100 Back
1. Cory Chitwood, Arizona
2. Tom Shields, Cal
3. Eric Ress, Indiana
Darkhorse – Vlad Morozov, USC

800 Free Relay
1. Florida
2. Texas
3. Virginia

Saturday, March 26:
1,650 Free
1. Chad LaTourette, Stanford
2. Martin Grodski, Georgia
3. Michael McBroom, Texas
Darkhorse – Richard Charlesworth, USC

200 Back
1. Cory Chitwood, Arizona
2. Marco Loughran, Florida
3. Austin Surhoff, Texas
Darkhorse – Hayes Johnson, Texas

100 Free
1. Nathan Adrian, Cal
2. Vlad Morozov, USC
3. Jimmy Feigen, Texas
Darkhorse – Conor Dwyer, Florida

200 Breast
1. Scott Spann, Texas
2. Nick D’Innocenzo, Texas
3. Adam Klein, Auburn
Darkhorse – Martii Aljand, Cal

200 Fly
1. Tom Shields, Cal
2. Mark Dylla, Georgia
3. Dan Madwed, Michigan
Darkhorse – Neil Caskey, Texas

400 Free Relay
1. Cal
2. Stanford
3. Texas

Top Ten:
1. Cal
2. Texas
3. Stanford
4. Arizona
5. Florida
6. Auburn
7. USC
8. Michigan
9. Virginia
10. Georgia

All Great Racers Part Three

2011-03-19T18:01:00.002-04:00

This is the third weekend of March and the third straight weekend of stellar fast swimming. From the drama of an NCAA team title race in Austin to the next wave of America’s superstars in Orlando to the fastest high school meet in the country in Pennsylvania, featuring arguably the greatest high school swimmer in history. Without further ado, take your mark!

The biggest story of the weekend is the three-way battle for the team title at the Women’s NCAA Championships in Austin. After day one, Georgia, Stanford, USC, and Cal were within all within 15 points. Stanford started to fall back on the second day, as Cal used a string of superb performances to vault ahead. After prelims today, Cal has established itself as the clear favorite to win another National title, just like the Bears did back in 2009. Just like in 2009, Georgia should finish in second, and the up-and-coming Trojans should get third. Of course, day three last year was when the Arizona vaulted themselves in front of the favored Stanford for several events, only for Florida to catch them in diving and hold off Stanford and Cal for the win. A lot could change tonight.

Two performances for Cal yesterday really changed the face of the meet in their favor. First, senior Amanda Sims reclaimed her 100 fly title that she had previously won in 2009. She steamrolled right past the 51.43 that Elaine Breeden won in last year, the 51.28 she clocked to win in 2009, and any time on the all-time list recorded by Olympians Christine Magnuson and Dana Vollmer. Sims’ 50.49 makes her the fourth-fastest in history, behind only Natalie Coughlin and Rachel Komisarz. This morning, she clocked a top time in the 200 fly of 1:53.17, ahead of the USC tandem of Katinka Hosszu and Lyndsay De Paul. Sims dropped 1.5 seconds from prelims to finals in her 100 fly yesterday; if she can drop a similar margin, she will be in the mix for the win or at least a top-three finish.

Can Sims make a mark nationally and internationally? Last year at this meet, she clocked 51.85 in the 100 fly for third place. At Long Course Nationals, she took tenth in 59.31. A long course drop similar to that which she posted short course would take her into the 57-range, into which among Americans only Magnuson and Vollmer touched in 2010. Additionally, Teri McKeever has been known for getting her swimmers to step up at every corner. She has coached Natalie Coughlin and Dana Vollmer to superstardom, and she helped Caitlin Leverenz and Madison Kennedy earn surprising berths on the 2010 Pan Pac team. McKeever is also head Olympic coach for 2012 and should tonight wrap up her second NCAA team title. Sims will have completed her eligibility after this season, and all the pieces are in place for a 2012 Olympic run.

One of the biggest stories of the meet has been the rise of Texas A&M freshman Breeja Larson as a national contender in breaststroke. Three weeks ago, Larson finished runner-up to Texas’ Laura Sogar in both breaststroke distances at Big-12s in Austin. Her return trip to Austin, however, has been significantly more fruitful. Larson first turned heads on the 400 medley relay, where she split 57.88 to help A&M to the B-final win. The next night in the 100 breast, she nearly ran down favorite Jillian Tyler in the final. Tyler won in 58.39, followed closely by Larson, in 58.51. This time is a considerable drop from her entry of 59.27, recorded at Big-12s. The scariest part: Larson began swimming year-round just over a year ago, during her senior year of high school!

Larson’s achievements last night led The Swimmers Circle’s Braden Keith to comment afterwards, “We’ve just seen the metaphorical birth of the next great American breaststroker.” In today’s 200 breast prelims, Larson qualified third in 2:08.03, dropping three tenths from her Big-12 time. Expect her to give favorites Tyler and Caitlin Leverenz a real run in tonight’s final. By next year, with another crucial year of swimming under her belt, we could see something stellar on the NCAA level and maybe even on the international scene. Certainly, with the breakthrough we have already seen from Larson, the sky is the limit for her.

In Austin last night, Cal freshman Cindy Tran and Deborah Roth went 1-2 in the 100 back. However, someone even younger ripped off a faster time at the NCSA Junior Nationals in Orlando. Rachel Bootsma, a junior in high school, clocked 50.76, well ahead of Tran’s 51.30. The time moved Bootsma to third on the all-time list, behind only double Olympic champion Natalie Coughlin and world champion Gemma Spofforth. Bootsma is not just a speedy backstroker, having outstanding versatility and a powerful underwater dolphin kick which has already led Bootsma to a sweep of the butterfly races. She is slated to compete tonight in the 200 IM, 50 free, and 50 back. In the 50 back, she led all qualifiers by more than a second! Already a Pan Pacs team member this summer and bronze medalist in the 50 back, Bootsma has some serious upside potential, and it would not be surprising for her to enter college as the American record-holder in the 100 back. Expect big things from her down the line.

In my blog last week, I discussed the potential for David Nolan to break National High School records at the Pennsylvania High School State Championships this weekend. With one out of two finals sessions at Bucknell University out of the way, he has not disappointed. His 200 IM time of 1:41.39 obliterated his old national mark of 1:43.43 set last year. More importantly, that time is well ahead of Austin Staab’s 1:42.01 that sits as the top seed headed into NCAA Championships. Additionally, Nolan swam 19.62 in the 50 free to lead-off the 200 free relay, not far off Vlad Morozov’s national record of 19.43 set last year. Oh, and his team from Hershey lowered the national record for that relay by more than a second!

Tonight, Nolan will compete in the 100 back final and most likely swim the lead-off leg of Hershey’s 400 free relay. This morning, he posted a 47.37 100 back, and he will be shooting for Cole Craigin’s national record of 46.75 in finals. He will also chase Morozov’s 42.91 national 100 free record and is expected to bust through both. Some now consider him the greatest high school swimmer of all time! The incoming Stanford freshman has mighty expectations to live up to; in NCAA competition, he could win multiple national titles as a freshman and make major contributions to Stanford’s relays. He has been discussed as a potential 2012 Olympian, as a relay alternate or maybe even an individual event. Even a medal in London is a possibility. But as we’ve seen this week, Nolan is not one to shy away from expectations; he just shatters them.

All Great Racers Part Two

2011-03-13T21:52:00.003-04:00

Last week, I blogged about the fast swimming we saw from Michael Phelps at the Indy Grand Prix and the short course yards benchmarks achieved at men’s Pac-10s. However, I left out one of the biggest storylines of the weekend: the 15 year old superstar that has established herself as one of the most consistent swimmers in the States. Additionally, I will provide insight into one of the most anticipated high school meets in the country, highlighted by one superstar swimmer who will be making an impact sooner than most people realize.

Last week in Indianapolis, Missy Franklin swept the backstrokes, posting the top time of the year in the 100 (59.56) and second-fastest time of the year in the 200 (2:07.96). She also posted tenth-ranked times in the 100 and 200 free; she took third in the 100 (54.93) behind Dana Vollmer and Jessica Hardy and second in the 200 (1:58.75) to Katie Hoff. All of these times are personal bests, faster than she posted at Nationals or Pan Pacs this summer! To provide some perspective on how fast she has been, let’s look at her results from last year’s Charlotte UltraSwim – two months further into the season! She won the 200 back (2:11.78), tied for third in the 100 back (1:01.83), took sixth in the 200 free (2:00.45), and finished eighth in the 100 free (56.89). Already, she is two seconds faster in most of her races and four seconds faster in the 200 back!

If Franklin can drop another four seconds in the 200 back by Worlds, she would be more than a second underneath the world record! Obviously, I do not see her dropping that amount of time, but she could definitely be within range of the American record, which is 2:06.09. Quite possibly, that could win the race. She will not be swimming the 100 back, but she is already the fourth-fastest American of all time behind Natalie Coughlin, Hayley McGregory, and Margaret Hoelzer, and only Coughlin has bested that time in a textile suit. Unfortunately, she will not compete in the 100 distance this summer, having finished just behind Elizabeth Pelton at Pan Pacs, 1:00.14 to 1:00.15. Franklin is scheduled to compete in the prelims of the 4x100 free relay, and a 54.93 this early in the season means that she could challenge for a finals spot. She did not make the team in the 4x200 free relay, but she could be a huge asset to that team as well.

While Franklin continues her rapid ascension, other American backstrokers are not sitting on the laurels. Last weekend, Pelton broke the American record in the 200 short course yard backstroke. Her 1:49.16 beat Coughlin’s nine year old mark of 1:49.62 set at the 2002 NCAAs. Beating Coughlin, arguably the greatest short course swimmer of all time, is monumental for Pelton, as she tries to hold off Franklin’s charge. At next year’s Olympic Trials in Omaha, the backstrokes will be among the most competitive races. Franklin, Pelton, Coughlin, and others such as Rachel Bootsma will battle for berths in the 100 back, while Franklin and Pelton will face off with Pan Pac Champion Elizabeth Beisel in the 200 back. All four superstars are on the Worlds team, Coughlin and Pelton in the 100 back and Beisel and Franklin in the 200 back. However, the Olympic team may not have so many different slots available for backstroke, and we will see some serious dogfights in those events.

The Pennsylvania High School State Championships are this week, and the meet shapes up to be another record-breaking one for Hershey’s David Nolan. As a junior last year, Nolan set a National High School record of 1:43.43 in the 200 IM, which would have tied him for fourth at the NCAA Championships. This year, he will try to lay down a benchmark headed into that meet. Stanford’s Austin Staab enters as the top seed at 1:42.01; if Nolan beats that mark, he will establish a high school record that should be untouchable for years. Nolan, who will also swim for Stanford next year, has already established himself as one of the best young swimmers in the USA, and his coming is welcome considering that the U.S. men’s team is the oldest it has ever been and consists of very few collegians and no high schoolers.

For the State meet, Nolan is seeded at 1:47.20 in the 200 IM, from his district meet, where he was unrested and unshaved yet still seeded three seconds ahead of anyone else. He also is entered in the 100 back, where he is top seed at 48.40. He should be a key role on two relays as well; at districts, he split a 19.24 on the 200 free relay. Additionally, last year he led off Hershey's 200 medley relay with a 21.82 backstroke split! Undoubtedly Nolan is one of the most talented pre-collegiate swimmers we have seen in many years, possibly since one named Michael Phelps. Along with the aforementioned Missy Franklin, the future looks bright for Team USA.

Women's NCAAs

2011-03-12T20:43:00.005-05:00

It's that time of year again. NCAA Championship season. The women's meet runs March 17-19 in Austin, while the men take to the pool March 24-26 in Minneapolis. We are going to see two weeks of fierce competition and amazing races, but in each meet, one team will emerge the better. Of course, we won't know which one until possibly the last relay. Last year, everyone thought Stanford or Georgia would walk away with the title until Florida swept ahead and won a 2.5 point victory, with Cal and Arizona both right in the mix for the title as well. Expect this women's meet to be just as tight, and do not expect any of your predictions going in to be correct.

It's also time for one of my favorite activities in swimming: Fantasy Swimming. On Podium Pursuit, I dominated the World Cup competition, but finished second by eight points at Short Course Worlds after I forgot to predict the last day. I hope to reclaim the top spot with this meet. I base my predictions off season-best times and prior experience. I admit there might be some pro-USA bias, as there so often is in my picks. I pick the top three spots in each event, plus a "darkhorse." A darkhorse is a swimmer seeded outside the top-eight but one that could make an impact. Sometimes, there are perfect darkhorses like Felicia Lee (100 fly) or Micah Lawrence (100/200 breast), but sometimes the darkhorses are less obvious. Note that, for the purposes of Podium Pursuit, these predictions are subject to change on a day-by-day basis. Without further ado, here goes:

Thursday, March 17:
200 Medley Relay
1. Stanford
2. Cal
3. Auburn

500 Free
1. Allison Schmitt, Georgia
2. Wendy Trott, Georgia
3. Elizabeth Beisel, Florida
Darkhorse – Chelsea Nauta, Georgia

200 IM
1. Katinka Hosszu, USC
2. Caitlin Leverenz, Cal
3. Morgan Scroggy, Georgia
Darkhorse – Claire Crippen, Virginia

50 Free
1. Arianna Vanderpool-Wallace, Auburn
2. Liv Jensen, Cal
3. Margo Geer, Arizona
Darkhorse – Sam Woodward, Stanford

400 Medley Relay
1. Cal
2. USC
3. Wisconsin

Friday, March 18":
200 Medley Relay
1. Cal
2. USC
3. Auburn

400 IM
1. Katinka Hosszu, USC
2. Elizabeth Beisel, Florida
3. Caitlin Leverenz, Cal
Darkhorse – Teresa Crippen, Florida

100 Fly
1. Lyndsay De Paul, USC
2. Amanda Sims, Cal
3. Jenny Connelly, Tennessee
Darkhorse – Felicia Lee, Stanford

200 Free
1. Allison Schmitt, Georgia
2. Morgan Scroggy, Georgia
3. Lauren Perdue, Virginia
Darkhorse – Sara Isokovic, Cal

100 Breast
1. Jillian Tyler, Minnesota
2. Kasey Carlson, USC
3. Ellyn Baumgardner, Arizona
Darkhorse – Micah Lawrence, Auburn

100 Back
1. Presley Bard, USC
2. Cindy Tran, Cal
3. Maggie Meyer, Wisconsin
Darkhorse – Elizabeth Webb, Stanford

800 Free Relay
1. Georgia
2. Florida
3. Cal

Saturday, March 19
1,650 Free
1. Wendy Trott, Georgia
2. Haley Anderson, USC
3. Ashley Steenvoorden, Minnesota
Darkhorse – Shannon Vreeland, Georgia

200 Back
1. Elizabeth Beisel, Florida
2. Teresa Crippen, Florida
3. Maggie Meyer, Wisconsin
Darkhorse – Sarah Denninghoff, Arizona

100 Free
1. Arianna Vanderpool-Wallace, Auburn
2. Liv Jensen, Cal
3. Morgan Scroggy, Georgia
Darkhorse – Allison Schmitt, Georgia

200 Breast
1. Caitlin Leverenz, Cal
2. Laura Sogar, Texas
3. Jillian Tyler, Minnesota
Darkhorse – Micah Lawrence, Auburn

200 Fly
1. Katinka Hosszu, USC
2. Lyndsay De Paul, USC
3. Teresa Crippen, Florida
Darkhorse – Rachel Naurath, Virginia

400 Free Relay
1. Cal
2. Stanford
3. Georgia

My top ten:
1. Cal
2. Georgia
3. USC
4. Florida
5. Stanford
6. Auburn
7. Texas
8. Arizona
9. Wisconsin
10. Tennessee

All Great Racers

2011-03-05T23:12:00.002-05:00

I’m back! It’s been about six weeks since I have posted one of my usual blogs about pro swimming due to a number of other distractions in my life. Aside from two and a half hours a day of swim practice, I have been writing recaps about high school swimming at Swimming World and this weekend also the American Short Course championships. I have attempted to keep up with the many conference meets going on around the country, having up to three live webcasts playing at once to watch them all and make sense of them, with the NCAA Championships looming. I am currently participating in an Olympics round table with Tom Willdridge and Braden Keith, where we examine Olympic potentials, now that the schedule has been released. Not to mention that I am currently taking the hardest school course load of my life. But too much has changed in the world of swimming since I last posted, so I’m back once again.

Tonight, the latest stop on the Grand Prix circuit came to a close in Indianapolis, while the men’s Pac-10 Championships concluded in Long Beach. There is a saying that “All Great Racers Come to Indy;” while that quote was not entirely true this weekend, America has seen some truly great racers perform this weekend and also in past weekends at conference championships.

When I last blogged, I criticized Michael Phelps for his mediocre performance at the Austin Grand Prix. Now, however, things have changed. Just seven weeks later, Phelps suddenly bounced back, and nothing could be better for the sport. He started things off with a 1:46.27 victory in the 200 free. Phelps immediately proved that no one can count him out of the big showdown in that race this summer. To put that time into perspective, he swam 1:46.47 at the 2007 Missouri Grand Prix; a month and a half later, he went into the history books, posting a 1:43.86 in this event, breaking Ian Thorpe’s vaunted world record of 1:44.06. By this math, he could be on track to swim a 1:43-mid or better in the 200 by the Worlds in Shanghai. He took the 100 fly in 51.75, which he called disappointing because of a terrible finish. In his first mid-season sub-52 100 fly in two years, Phelps showed once again why he has become the dominant 100 flyer in the world. He won the 200 fly in 1:55.34, a respectable time, but it shows that he still has work to do. He did not have his usual cushion of several seconds in that race, where Brazil’s Kaio Almeida finished just a half second behind. But finally, Michael Phelps is on the right track, the track towards more Olympic greatness in London.

In possibly the final session of competing at the IUPUI Natatorium for his entire career, Phelps put on quite a show. His 1:56.88 victory in the 200 IM lopped about five seconds off his year-best from the Austin Grand Prix. He out-split world champ Ryan Lochte on every stroke and swam the fastest in-season time of his entire career. Lochte posted a demoralizing win over Phelps at this summer’s Nationals, but Phelps posted his first head-to-head win over Lochte in the event since the Olympic games. Up next, the 100 free. After winning his eight gold medals in Beijing, Phelps hinted that the 100 free could become his new focus event. After an unsuccessful experiment with a new sprint stroke in 2009, hype regarding Phelps and the 100 free decreased. However, things changed when Phelps led off the 400 free relay at Pan Pacs in 48.13, the then-fastest time in the world. Once again, Phelps has the fastest time in the world, as he clocked 48.89, beating Matt Grevers and Jason Lezak by more than a second. The question comes up again: can Phelps win the 100 free in London? Obviously, scheduling will be an issue, since the event’s semi-final comes just before the 200 fly final and also on the same night as the 4x200 free relay final. Major decisions still to be made obviously.

In recent weeks, we have seen some truly impressive collegiate performances at conference meets. These range from Arianna Vanderpool-Wallace’s U.S. Open records in the 100 free at SECs to Dax Hill’s continued breakout at Big-12s to Kyle Whittaker’s nation-beating IMs at Big-10s as just a freshman. However, the biggest story has been Conor Dwyer’s coming-out party at SECs. The Florida senior set SEC championship records in winning the 500 free (4:11.36) and 400 IM (3:37.75), and these times also stand as the top times in the nation. He opened the meet with a 1:31.73 lead-off leg on the 800 free relay, just one one-hundredth of a second away from Dave Walters’ American record. Due to numerous event conflicts, Dwyer, like Phelps on the Olympic level, has numerous scheduling decisions to make for NCAAs. He also has the potential to throw down a monster 200 IM or 200 breast, although his 1,650 experiment at SECs did not pan out as expected, losing in a blowout to Georgia’s Martin Grodski, while teammate Connor Signorin also got ahead of Dwyer at the finish. Dwyer’s performances at this meet show him to be a bona fide Olympic contender and not just as a relay alternate (as he is on the World Champs team). One of the scariest parts of his SECs performance was He has serious individual potential in the 400 free, and possibly even the 200 free, 200 IM, or 400 IM, and we’ve yet to see how good a 200 breaststroker he could be. World, watch out for Conor Dwyer!

Going into men’s Pac-10s, everyone talked about the showdown between Tom Shields and Austin Staab in the 100 fly. Staab won this event at NCAAs in 2009, posting an American record of 44.18, while Shields won in 2010 in Staab’s absence. The addition to the field of Olympic gold medalist and star sprinter Nathan Adrian showed that it would be truly memorable. It failed to disappoint. Stroke for stroke the entire way, Staab got his hands on the wall first, 44.66 to 44.78. Shields swam his best time, ahead of the 44.91 in which he won NCAAs last year, while Staab broke his 2009 Pac-10 record of 44.72 he set on the way to his 44.18 at NCAAs. With the NCAA Championships looming in three weeks time, the question remains: who will win? And can they get down to Staab’s 44.18 from the days of polyurethane suits? This should be one of the primer races of the meet, and if either man breaks the record, it will be an astounding swim.

Shields, meanwhile, proved over the course of Pac-10s to be much more than just a 100 flyer. On the opening day, he led off Cal’s 800 free relay in 1:32.88. With the swim, he became the first Cal swimmer under 1:33 and broke Matt Biondi’s school record. No one would come close to that time in winning the individual 200 free, as Dimitri Colupaev touched first in 1:34.05. An hour after taking a close second to Staab in the 100 fly, Shields won the 100 back in 45.65. He is by no means a backstroker and has hardly ever swum the event, but he now has the third fastest time in the country. However, he saved his best performance for last. Shields won the 200 fly in 1:40.31, breaking the NCAA record and swimming the third fastest time ever, behind two of Phelps’ performances. To top it all off, Shields spilt a 41.83 on Cal’s winning 400 free relay. Shields won Swimmer of the Meet, but he will have much bigger honors coming his way in the next few years at this rate. Don’t be surprised to hear about Tom Shields on the 2012 Olympic team.

Back at the Indy Grand Prix, the U.S. women proved that they are back to the forefront of world swimming. Missy Franklin continued her rapid ascendance, with a 59.56 100 back and 2:07.96 200 back, leaving her first and second in the world in those two events, respectively. Chloe Sutton, Katie Hoff, and Kate Ziegler clocked what at the time stood as the top three times in the world in the 400 free, all sub-4:07. (Rebecca Adlington and Jazmin Carlin beat those times at British Nationals today.) Ziegler and Sutton went head-to-head in the 800 free, and both posted sub-8:30 swims. Hoff and Franklin crossed paths in the 200 free, where Hoff posted a blazing sub-1:58 swim and Franklin kept rolling, breaking 1:59 for the first time. Dana Vollmer, Jessica Hardy, and Missy Franklin all swam in the low 25s in the 50 free and under 55 in the 100 free, while Vollmer and Elaine Breeden are now ranked first and second in the world in the 100 and 200 fly, respectively.

As for the men, things are finally starting to piece together for what should be a dominant team 17 months down the line. Phelps is finally headed in the right direction, while Ryan Lochte showed that while he is in the midst of the hardest training of his life, he can still knock off something ridiculous, like his 54.08 100 back and 1:57.63 200 back. Tyler Clary and Peter Vanderkaay both showed that they can race tough, as things are coming together for both this season as well. Matt Grevers continues his rebound after missing the Pan Pacs last summer, while new U.S. backstroke champion David Plummer continues to prove his win in Irvine last summer was no fluke. To show off U.S. backstroke depth, Nick Thoman posted a 53.93 100 back as a medley relay lead-off, meaning that the U.S. is now ranked 3rd-7th in the world for 100 back. In the breaststroke events, Mark Gangloff and Eric Shanteau provided comfort for U.S. fans in the 100 and 200 distances, respectively, while Sean Mahoney returned from a doping suspension to show up the big guns. The puzzle is starting to come together to form something magnificent.

With the NCAA Championships coming up just weeks down the line, be sure to play Podium Pursuit (fantasy swimming) to test your swimming knowledge against the biggest swim geeks out there. Finally, I leave a list of my February swimmers of the month. These swimmers all performed excellent in February and are on track for big things down the line.

American - Rebecca Soni (USA) and Conor Dwyer (USA)
Europe - Katinka Hosszu (HUN) and Yannick Agnel (FRA)
Africa - Wendy Trott (RSA) and Ous Mellouli (TUN)
Pac Rim - Belinda Hocking (AUS) and Kosuke Kitajima (JPN)

South Carolina Short Course State Championships: MUSC Swim Team

2011-02-12T19:34:00.002-05:00

Recently, the MUSC Swim Team competed at the South Carolina Short Course State Championships. The meet took place February 3-6 in Rock Hill The team, just four months old, performed exceptionally, posting 11 top-ten A-final swims. The team practices at the MUSC Wellness Center, often with just two lanes of space, which frequently leads to cramped conditions. Despite this, 88% of the swimmers on the State Team, which included Chloe Holowczenko, Carina Kastenholz, Cherokee Grooms, Casey Buck, and David Rieder, swam at least one personal best time, in most cases improving on marks set just two or three weeks before. Coach Rick Hancock said after the meet, “Coach Greg (Stallworth) and I set the bar pretty high with our expectations, but the swimmers went above and beyond that bar consistently throughout the entire season, and to top it off with the caliber of performances at State was something special.”

The Welsh twins, Sarah Anne and Meredith, led the way for MUSC, each posting fourth-place finishes in one event in the 11-12 girls age group. Sarah Anne took fourth in the 50 back (30.56) in one of four finals races. She also placed seventh in the 50 free (26.71), 10th in the 100 free (59.98), and eighth in the 100 back (1:09.13). She also took 15th in the 100 IM (1:08.91), and her performances earned her All-State honors. Meanwhile, her twin sister Meredith earned fourth in the 50 breast (33.35), 10th in the 100 breast (1:15.48), and 19th in the 100 IM (1:10.19).

Dalton Delp also earned All-State, making the finals of both the 13-14 50 free (23.86) and 100 free (53.07). Teammate Trey Dimuzio also made an impact, taking seventh in the 200 fly (2:10.30), 11th in the 100 free (52.75), 14th in the 100 fly (1:00.35), 15th in both the 50 free (24.52) and 100 breast (1:09.99), and 20th in the 200 free (1:56.44). Other impressive swims among 13-14 boys included Tyler Wolter’s 20th-place finish in the 100 breast (1:11.98) and Ryan Laban finishing 18th in the 200 breast (2:35.59).

Cassidy Rindge made the final of the 13-14 girls’ 100 breast, taking 10th (1:14.38). Rindge also finished 11th in the 200 breast (2:42.92), as did Gabby Dizon in the 50 free (26.31). Dizon also grabbed 16th in the 100 free (57,42), 18th in the 100 back (1:05.68), and 20th in the 100 fly (1:04.73).

Jacob Dupree and Evan Howard provided the team highlights for 15-18 boys. Dupree finished sixth in the 100 breast (1:00.78), 10th in the 200 breast (2:18.59), and 20th in the 100 free (51.04). Howard, meanwhile, took 18th in the 200 back (2:07.95) and 19th in the 100 free (50.78). In the 11-12 boys age group, Jackson Seith finished sixth in a pair of breaststroke races, the 50 (34.75) and 100 (1:17.71). Seith also placed in the top-20 in the 50 and 200 free.

Twitter Change

2011-01-25T20:21:00.001-05:00

Quick update. I have changed my account name on Twitter. I am now "David_Rieder" and you can find my (irregular) posts at twitter.com/David_Rieder.

The Austin Grand Prix, Phelps, Lochte, and the French

2011-01-22T22:26:00.001-05:00

I’m David Rieder. You may know me by my nickname, “The Swim Geek.” To say I like swimming is an understatement; swimming is pretty much my life. I swim almost every day after school before coming home to think about swimming and discussing the sport in Facebook chats. I make bets with my coach and debate predictions with people who I may have never met in person. I am here at The Athlete Village to make new discussions about the sport of swimming, hopefully creating more reader involvement with my blog than I ever have before. I want to hear your opinions and what you have to say. I will try to make my blog here a weekly post, though I can certainly make no promises. I also can’t promise that it will be new, genuine, or cutting edge, but I will do my best to relate it to what is going on in swimming during any given week. Most importantly, let’s get excited about the lead-up to London, where our sport will be more popular than ever, and let’s get excited about these meets along the way where we will see some of the most exciting competition to date.

My first topics of discussion here at The Athlete Village are the few long course meets we have seen thus far in 2011. First and foremost, we saw many of USA Swimming’s top stars compete at the Austin Grand Prix, namely Michael Phelps. Having not competed at a top-level meet since Pan Pacs in August, a shaggy-looking Phelps arrived in Austin claiming, as he has so many times over the last year, to be out of shape. He left the meet with not too much to brag about, but he claimed that his disappointments in Austin would further motivate him in training as he looks towards Worlds this summer and the Olympics next year.

Really? I could have sworn I heard the same thing during fall 2009, when Phelps showed up to World Cup meets in Berlin and Stockholm and was handed several large defeats. I remember something very similar after the Long Beach Grand Prix last January, where Phelps mustered enough mental strength to out-touch Hidemasa Sano in a head-to-head 400 IM but didn’t exceed expectations otherwise. How about when he missed the Columbus Grand Prix in April for no reason, while his teammates went and swam exceptionally? Or after the Paris Open, where he received a stern wake-up call with a defeat to French teenager Yannick Agnel and Dutch standout Sebastiaan Verschuren in the 200 free and finished dead last in the 100 free? Ryan Lochte took the spotlight at Nationals and Pan Pacs, where Phelps was a clear also-ran. He promised to return to hard training straight away.

And yet, he has not. Do we really give Phelps the benefit of the doubt this time? With each passing meet, it looks more and more like Phelps won’t be able to turn things around in time for London if he wants to achieve great success, such as breaking another world record in the 100 or 200 fly or challenging Ryan Lochte in the 200 free or 200 IM. It’s funny; we would never have questioned his ability to do any of these things just one year ago. However, his swims since have shown otherwise, and what we saw last weekend in Austin changed very little.

In Austin, Phelps’ good swims came in 100-meter races and his not-so-good swims in 200-meter races. To provide context for his times, I will compare them to his times from the Charlotte UltraSwim last year. In the 100 fly, he swam about a tenth slower (52.55), and in the 100 back, two tenths slower (54.14). Considering this is January and not May, that’s actually pretty impressive, as was his 100 free (50.09). These swims led Garrett McCaffrey to remind us yesterday on the McCaffreyCap that, “He’s Michael-Freaking-Phelps!” However, in the longer races the results are not so encouraging. His 200 free (1:49.90) was 2.2 seconds slower than what we saw him swim in Charlotte last year, and he added 3.2 seconds in his 200 IM. These are startling and disturbing statistics, especially in comparison to his rival Lochte.

Traditionally, Phelps has swum solid times in-season, while Lochte, beaten down from his training, has not. For that reason, I predicted Phelps to come out ahead of Lochte in both the 200 free and 200 IM. However, Lochte proved me wrong; in the 200 free, Lochte put up a time of 1:49.25, just off his best in-season time from last year, a 1:49.05 in Charlotte. Phelps, meanwhile, finished six tenths behind, from his position in the B-final. Lochte’s 1:59.26 in the 200 IM surpassed his one in-season 200 IM last year, swum just weeks before he put up dual 1:54 swims at Nationals and Pan Pacs. From these statistics, it is evident that Phelps is no where near where Lochte is right now in training and in preparation for the culmination of their rivalry in London 2012.

In a blog about the Austin Grand Prix, I feel I must mention two further standout performers. Most have heard about Missy Franklin’s extraordinary performances in Austin. 1:59 in the 200 free, 59.7 in the 100 back, 2:14 in the 200 IM, and 2:09 in the 100 back. She is huge. She will be huge. Not that enough can be said about her performance this past week, but I will move on. One of the more underrated performances this weekend was Tyler Clary. On the first day, he swam a 4:21 in the 400 IM, more than respectable after two weeks off and then two weeks of intense training. The next day, Clary exceeded his own expectations with a 1:59 200 fly. But it was the final day when Clary amazed crowds; his 1:57 in the 200 back is nothing less than amazing. That time is less than a second off his third-place time from Nationals this summer! He is on track for big things, just like Lochte and Missy Franklin. At least two and maybe even three medals at the World Championships this summer are very possible.

This weekend, members of Team France have jumped to the top of this year’s world rankings with top performances at the meet in Nancy, France. While the French are most likely at a different point in their training season, since their Trials for the World Championships are in March, these times show just how big a threat France will be in Shanghai. Take, for example, the men’s 100 back. In 2008, you may remember, France had one of the strongest 300 medley teams in the world – but no backstroker under 55. Oh, how things have changed. Last year’s world dominator Camille Lacourt posted a 53.45 today, while Jeremy Stravius, the silver medalist at the European championships behind Lacourt, took second in 53.78. So far, Phelps is the closest, with his 54.14 in Austin. With just three years’ turnaround, France has a realistic chance to finish 1-2 in that event at Worlds. Moreover, Lacourt could break Peirsol’s world record of 51.94 in Shanghai, maybe before. He is certainly on pace to pull off the feat this year. Certainly, Americans Nick Thoman and David Plummer won’t roll over, especially with the American legacy in this event, while Junya Koga won’t easily roll over his World title to the Frenchmen. Even Great Britain’s Liam Tancock will be a tough force in this event. But right now, this event belongs to France.

The name Camille has surely been a magical one in Nancy. Camille Muffat won the 200 and 400 free in the fastest times in the world. Her 1:58.00 in the 200 free beat Femke Heemskerk in a head-to-head matchup, while both surpassed Katie Hoff’s 1:58.69 from Austin. Muffat posted a 4:07.82 in the 400 free on Friday, far surpassing the 4:08.28 and 4:08.35 posted last week by Kate Ziegler and Rebecca Adlington, respectively. Muffat’s time beats Hoff’s 4:09.51 from Austin by nearly two seconds. Riding a wave of confidence from her win in the 200 free at the Short Course Worlds in Dubai, Muffat is developing into a real threat in the mid-distance free races, as well as the 200 IM, in which she finished fifth at the Worlds in Rome, and even the 100 free, where she placed fourth in Dubai. She is another French swimmer with a real chance to make a mark in Shanghai.

The Austin Grand Prix went well for American swimmers, but the World Championship team has a ways to go to dominate like they did in 2007, when 20 out of the 40 gold medals awarded went to American swimmers or relay teams. Obviously, the French will be one of the biggest threats, with a pair of Camilles looking really strong. The Chinese will be another major player at this meet, and we will see how much of a threat their swimmers will be at the home World Champs in Shanghai once they swim at their Nationals. But for right now, we’ve got Lochte; right now, he is the shinning beacon for Team USA.

Austin Grand Prix Predictions

2011-01-13T21:22:00.003-05:00

No way I could resist predicting a Grand Prix meet with Phelps, Lochte, Hoff, and Lezak. Since no one has swam long course yet this year, look for the fastest time in the world in pretty much every event. Instead of giving a bunch of notes here, I will put some thoughts below most of my predictions. As usual, the psych sheet, live results, and live video are available, and finals will be live on Universal Sports Friday and Saturday nights at 5:30 PM central time.

Friday, January 14

Women's 200 Free

1. Katie Hoff, FAST

2. Missy Franklin, Colorado Stars

3. Chloe Sutton, Mission Viejo

*Momentum still building for Katie Hoff

Men's 200 Free

1. Michael Phelps, NBAC

2. Ryan Lochte, Gator

3. Ricky Berens, Longhorn

*Yes, Phelps showed up.

Women's 100 Breast

1. Haylee Johnson, UBC Dolphins

2. Raminta Dvariskyte, SMU

3. Siri Eva Kristiansen, Santa Clara

*Women's breaststrokes the weakest events at this meet

Men's 100 Breast

1. Eric Shanteau, Longhorn

2. Marcus Titus, Tucson Ford

3. Clark Burckle, Tucson Ford

*Eric Shanteau's last meet in Austin before moving to California

Women's 100 Fly

1. Elaine Breeden, Stanford

2. Kathleen Hersey, Longhorn

3. Rachel Bootsma, Aquajets

*Olympians > everyone else

Men's 100 Fly

1. Michael Phelps, NBAC

2. David Russell, Cal

3. Ricky Berens, Longhorn

*Phelps hasn't lost this race in more than five years

Women's 400 IM

1. Julia Smit, Stanford

2. Tanya Hunks, UBC Dolphins

3. Kathleen Hersey, Longhorn

*World Short Course record-holder prevails

Men's 400 IM

1. Tyler Clary, FAST

2. Todd Patrick, NBAC

3. Brian Johns, UBC Dolphins

*Too bad Lochte isn't swimming to take on Clary

Saturday, January 15

Women's 200 Fly

1. Elaine Breeden, Stanford

2. Kathleen Hersey, Longhorn

3. Tanya Hunks, UBC Dolphins

*Top two could go either way

Men's 200 Fly

1. Tyler Clary, FAST

2. Todd Patrick, NBAC

3. Brian Johns, UBC Dolphins

*How fast can Clary go?

Women's 50 Free

1. Missy Franklin, Colorado Stars

2. Julia Smit, Stanford

3. Andrea Georoff, SwimMAC

*Young superstar takes a win

Men's 50 Free

1. Josh Schneider, SwimMAC

2. Brent Hayden, UBC Dolphins

3. Jason Lezak, Rose Bowl

*Schneider keeps the ball rolling after winning bronze at Short Course worlds

Women's 100 Back

1. Elizabeth Pelton, NBAC

2. Missy Franklin, Colorado Stars

3. Rachel Bootsma, Aquajets

*Should be an awesome race between these three teenagers, all of whom made the Pan Pac team

Men's 100 Back

1. Nick Thoman, SwimMAC

2. Michael Phelps, NBAC

3. David Russell, Cal

*Thoman gets the better of Phelps again

Women's 400 Free

1. Katie Hoff, FAST

2. Chloe Sutton, Mission Viejo

3. Kate Ziegler, FAST

*Should be another amazing race; Hoff took gold at Short Course Worlds

Men's 400 Free

1. Peter Vanderkaay, Gator

2. Michael Klueh, Longhorn

3. Ryan Lochte, Gator

*Vanderkaay and Lochte have had epic battles in practice the last couple weeks

Women's 200 Breast

1. Haylee Johnson, UBC Dolphins

2. Raminta Dvariskyte, SMU

3. Siri Eva Kristiansen, Santa Clara

*Another wide open race

Men's 200 Breast

1. Eric Shanteau, Longhorn

2. Clark Burckle, Tucson Ford

3. Marcus Titus, Tucson Ford

*Shanteau wraps up yet another breaststroke sweep

Sunday, January 16

Women's 800 Free

1. Kate Ziegler, FAST

2. Chloe Sutton, Mission Viejo

3. Katie Hoff, FAST

*Should be another good one between the top two

Women's 200 IM

1. Missy Franklin, Colorado Stars

2. Julia Smit, Stanford

3. Elaine Breeden, Stanford

*Slight upset of former American record-holder

Men's 200 IM

1. Michael Phelps, NBAC

2. Ryan Lochte, Gator

3. Tyler Clary, FAST

*Lochte did 17,000 meters in practice yesterday

Women's 200 Back

1. Elizabeth Pelton, NBAC

2. Missy Franklin, Colorado Stars

3. Madison White, Crow Canyon

*Another battle of young studs

Men's 200 Back

1. Tyler Clary, FAST

2. Rex Tullius, Gator

3. Nick Thoman, SwimMAC

*Clary grabs his third win of the meet

Women's 100 Free

1. Katie Hoff, FAST

2. Missy Franklin, Colorado Stars

3. Julia Smit, Stanford

*Franklin earns her third podium of the night

Men's 100 Free

1. Brent Hayden, UBC Dolphins

2. Michael Phelps, NBAC

3. Jason Lezak, Rose Bowl

*Should be the best race of the meet

Men's 1,500 Free

1. Peter Vanderkaay, Gator

2. Michael Klueh, Longhorn

3. Andrew Gemmell, Deleware

*How low can Vanderkaay go?

The Legacy of Fran Crippen

2011-01-03T10:44:00.007-05:00

On October 23, 2010, swimming lost one of its greatest. That day, in the Open Water World Cup finale in the United Arab Emirates, American swimmer Fran Crippen failed to reach the finish line. Crippen passed away during that race, his body found under water hours after the race concluded. In a year filled with both excitement and controversy in the sport of swimming, Crippen’s death topped all lists as the top story of 2010, in the saddest of ways. The tragedy in the UAE in October united the swimming world, especially in the United States, in a push for reform in Open Water competition but also to remember this man who left such a mark on the sport.

A highly-recruited distance swimmer out of Germantown Academy, Crippen came from a prominent family of swimmers, including older sister Maddy, a 2000 Olympian. He attended the University of Virginia, where he swam for four years. After completing his eligibility in 2006, Crippen made the U.S. Pan Pacs team, where he decided on a whim to compete in the 10k Open Water event. Having never competed in the event before, he won silver in that race, behind World Champion Chip Peterson. Suddenly, he saw an opportunity in Open Water, moving to Mission Viejo to train under Bill Rose in an attempt to qualify for the inaugural 10k Olympic race in Beijing. Crippen picked up momentum along the way, winning gold at the Pan American Games in Rio de Janeiro in 2007. Going into the Olympic year, many expected Crippen to be one of the pioneer marathon swimmers in Beijing.

At the World Championship Trials in October 2007, Crippen needed to finish first or second in order to have a shot at Beijing. Many experts viewed Crippen as a co-favorite, along with Peterson. However, things did not turn out as planned. Mark Warkentin won, on his way to making the Beijing Olympics in the 10k, and Peterson took second. At that point, Crippen returned to Mission Viejo, to train for the pool Olympic Trials in the summer of 2008. Crippen was not favored to make the team in the pool, and he did not.

After the Trials, he moved back to Philadelphia, near his hometown of Conshohocken, and he began coaching at Germantown. Soon enough, he found himself back in the water, swimming under high school coach Richard Shoulberg. Not long after, Crippen competed in the 2009 U.S. Open Water Nationals in Fort Myers, winning the race and making the World Championships Team. Before the 10k race in Rome, I said Crippen was my sentimental favorite. I saw his comeback story as an inspirational one, and I thought it would be amazing if he could nab a medal. However, considering America’s usual lack of strength in Open Water, I viewed it at as a long shot.

Crippen surprised many when he was even with the German favorite Thomas Lurz going into the final stretch. He lost his chance at gold when he hit the buoy marking the finishing chute, going off course for a few moments before a furious sprint won him the bronze medal, behind Lurz and teammate Andrew Gemmell. Despite a protest, Crippen received his medal, and his career took off from there. He defended his National title in June 2010, and at the 2010 Worlds in Roberval, Canada, Crippen took fourth in the 10k race before earning a bronze in the 5k race. Along the way, Crippen racked up significant World Cup points, earning second place in the overall ranking going into the circuit’s final stop. At the 2010 Pan Pacs, he took second to Peterson once again. Interestingly, after that race, he claimed that the result didn’t matter; the opportunity to swim on a National team with sister Teresa, who won silver in the 200 fly at that meet, was enough.

At those Pan Pacs, Crippen fell behind midway through the race. He turned around to assist teammate Alex Meyer, the World Champion in the 25k, when his friend fell ill. Despite numerous lifeguards on the course, Crippen waited until Meyer was safe on shore before continuing the race. Just months later in Dubai, it would be Meyer who noticed Crippen missing, alerting authorities before he jumped on a jet ski himself to search for Crippen.

Crippen leaves behind a multi-faceted legacy, due mostly to the sheer amount of people he touched in his short 26 years. A member of the National Team for several years, he knew well all of its members, and he remained close with a tight-knit group of Virginia swimming alumni. In addition to his coaches and fellow swimmers at Germantown and Mission Viejo, Crippen coached younger swimmers, becoming a huge role model.. Finally, the stories about Crippen and his outstanding results have inspired swim fans, such as me, who never had the honor of meeting him.

Crippen’s life and achievements in the water leave behind a legacy of perseverance. As I mentioned above, he rebounded just a year after missing the Olympic team to win medals on the biggest international stage. His accomplishments in 2009 earned him a nomination for USA Swimming’s Perseverance Award at the Golden Goggles, alongside such pool swimmers as Dana Vollmer. He also won the U.S. Open Water Swimmer of the Year award in 2009 and 2010. Despite the major setbacks along the way, he never let his dream die in his push for the 2012 London Olympics, one that will never be completed.

In the weeks and months before his death, Crippen had campaigned for scrutiny of the subpar safety conditions in many open water races; thus, Crippen serves as a martyr for the reforms which he fought for. Since his death, members of the swimming community across the world have called for change. From Shoulberg to the United States Olympic Committee, people around the world are heckling FINA to make changes to ensure that a tragedy on this level never happens again.

On a more personal level, Crippen left a legacy of friendliness and good-heartedness. Considered by those that knew him even a little bit to be a rare all-around good guy, no one in the sport disliked Crippen, including his competitors. His involvement with swimming went far beyond competing; Crippen genuinely cared about anyone involved in swimming. When Meyer could not complete the race at Pan Pacs, no other swimmer would have taken as much care as Crippen did to ensure Meyer’s safety. In fact, the race would normally have left him behind. That legacy came full circle when it was Meyer searching for Crippen’s body in the United Arab Emirates.

A quote of Crippen’s sums up much of his legacy: “Dreams never die; only the dreamers do.” Crippen had a dream to be an Olympian. He found Open Water as a perfect venue to fulfill that dream. After failing to reach that goal in 2008, he returned to pursue his dream in 2012, before it was cut short with his death. However, Fran Crippen’s death did not kill his dream.

In June 2011, the best Open Water swimmers in America will gather for the World Championship Trials in Fort Myers. Fran Crippen will not be there, but his memory will be. On Friday, June 10, two male and two female swimmers will qualify for the World Championships in Shanghai. The top swimmers in Shanghai will qualify for the Open Water event at the London Olympics. If one or two Americans qualify, they will live Crippen’s dream. Also in Fort Myers, a Crippen Sunset Mile will be swum on June 11 to commemorate Fran and raise funds for the Fran Crippen Elevation Foundation, established by his family shortly after his death.

Meets around the country have recognized Fran over the past three months, often dedicating the 1650 races to him. At the Minnesota Grand Prix, his Open Water teammates Chloe Sutton and Christine Jennings used body markings to show their support. The two wrote the date of his death (10/23) on their hands and “FC” on their shoulders. At the Tom Dolan Invite in December, Maddy Crippen handed out special awards to the winners of the Fran Crippen Memorial Mile. At the TYR Capital Classic, which I recently attended, competing teams aimed to raise as much money possible for Crippen’s foundation before the meet, donating a prize to the team which raised the most money before swimming the mile in his honor.

Even the pool National team carries Fran’s legacy. When the National team travelled to the United Arab Emirates, they brought Fran’s memory with them, with the letters “FC” embroidered on all of their equipment and clothing. The entire team, including Fran’s sister Teresa, a member of this summer’s World Championship Team and an Olympic hopeful for 2012, continue to live his Olympic dream in the run-up to 2012. That dream will forever live on and stand in his memory.

I regret that I could never meet Fran Crippen in person. However, I do have a small connection to him; my coach swam with Crippen at the University of Virginia, and many ex-Cavaliers stayed connected over the years after college. On the day of Fran’s death, he learned of the tragic news hours before any news outlet broke the story (which was how I learned). In Fran’s memory, my coach put Fran’s quote on the back of our team t-shirts: “Dreams never die; only the dreamers do.”

Recently, a mother of a swimmer on our team was at Moe’s when she noticed a woman looking closely at the quote on the back of her team t-shirt. Eventually, the woman asked about the shirt and the quote. The mother wrote in an email, “She then said that she had noticed the quote on the back of the shirt and said that she was from the same hometown as Fran Crippen. She knew him and his whole family and swam with him and family when she was younger. So I told her that you (my coach) swam with him at UVa. She said that she never expected to ever see something from Fran on the back of a shirt here in Charleston.” This seemingly random encounter at a small restaurant shows why Fran Crippen had such a widespread and lasting legacy; he touched so many people that his legacy will be felt everywhere.

2011 World Championships Predictions

2011-01-01T20:54:00.007-05:00

I hope all of you had a great New Year! As we enter 2011, I have already made some early predictions for this summer's World Championships in Shanghai. As evidenced by my recent predicting contest for World Short Course Champs, it is hard to predict these meets correctly; off all the contestants, no one picked half of the correct winners! Almost seven months out, this task is even more difficult, but I am making an attempt anyway.

First, some analysis of what I have predicted. I predict Team USA to walk away with 36 medals, 14 of them gold. This is an improvement over the 10 golds they won in Rome and the 12 golds form Beijing but still far behind their performance at the 2007 Worlds in Melbourne, where American swimmers won half of the events - 20 golds! The Americans were so dominant just four years ago, that they should have won even more; favorite Brendan Hansen withdrew from the 200 breast due to illness, and the men's medley relay was disqualified, losing a chance for a runaway win.

Meanwhile, I expect China to have a successful meet in their home country. I put them down for 13 medals, 7 of which are gold. I picked two 1-2 finishes for China, in the women's 50 back (Zhao Jing and Gao Chang) and men's 800 free (Sun Yang and Zhang Lin). When in doubt, I took China ahead, due to their recent successes at the World Short Course Championships and also at the Asian Games. Home-country advantage proved significant at the Beijing Olympics, and I suspect it will again.

I picked the Americans to win five relays, all except the women's 4x100 free relay. It is a tough call between China and the USA in the other two women's relays, especially the 4x200 free, but I took the USA in both. The Michael Phelps-Ryan Lochte rivalry will continue; the two will be 1-2 in both the 200 free and 200 IM - Phelps winning the 200 free and Lochte the 200 IM. Lochte will lead the other American 1-2 with Tyler Clary in the 400 IM. I predict the only other 1-2 finish for one country in the meet will be Sweden (Therese Alshammar and Sarah Sjostrom) in the women's 50 fly.

The Netherlands should win the women's 4x100 free relay, which would make them the only country besides the U.S. and China to win more than two gold medals - in fact, three. I pick Italy, Sweden, Hungary, France, Brazil, and Hungary to all win double gold, with Great Britain, Denmark, Norway, and Serbia rounding out the gold medal winners.

Surprisingly, I could not find an event to pick Australia for a gold medal. I still put them down for 13 medals - silver and bronze. Again, I tended to pick China when in doubt, so they certainly still could win a race, but as of right now, I don't see it. That said, few saw Brenton Rickard winning the men's 100 breast in Rome.

Women’s Events:

50 Free
1. Ranomi Kromowidjojo, Netherlands
2. Britta Steffen, Germany
3. Therese Alshammar, Sweden

100 Free
1. Ranomi Kromowidjojo, Netherlands
2. Fran Halsall, Great Britain
3. Natalie Coughlin, USA

200 Free
1. Federica Pellegrini, Italy
2. Allison Schmitt, USA
3. Dana Vollmer, USA

400 Free
1. Federica Pellegrini, Italy
2. Katie Hoff, USA
3. Rebecca Adlington, Great Britain

800 Free
1. Rebecca Adlington, Great Britain
2. Kate Ziegler, USA
3. Lotte Friis, Denmark

1,500 Free
1. Lotte Friis, Denmark
2. Melissa Gorman, Australia
3. Kate Ziegler, USA

50 Back
1. Zhao Jing, China
2. Gao Chang, China
3. Aleksandra Herasimenia, Belarus

100 Back
1. Zhao Jing, China
2. Emily Seebohm, Australia
3. Natalie Coughlin, USA

200 Back
1. Zhao Jing, China
2. Elizabeth Simmonds, Great Britain
3. Elizabeth Beisel, USA

50 Breast
1. Rebecca Soni, USA
2. Yulia Efimova, Russia
3. Leiston Pickett, Australia

100 Breast
1. Rebecca Soni, USA
2. Leisel Jones, Australia
3. Yulia Efimova, Russia

200 Breast
1. Rebecca Soni, USA
2. Leisel Jones, Australia
3. Annamay Pierse, Canada

50 Fly
1. Therese Alshammar, Sweden
2. Sarah Sjostrom, Sweden
3. Yolane Kukla, Australia

100 Fly
1. Sarah Sjostrom, Sweden
2. Dana Vollmer, USA
3. Fran Halsall, Great Britain

200 Fly
1. Jiao Liuyang, China
2. Katinka Hosszu, Hungary
3. Jessicah Schipper, Australia

200 IM
1. Yi Shiwen, China
2. Stephanie Rice, Australia
3. Ariana Kukors, USA

400 IM
1. Katinka Hosszu, Hungary
2. Hannah Miley, Great Britain
3. Elizabeth Beisel, USA

4x100 Free Relay
1. Netherlands
2. United States
3. Australia

4x200 Free Relay
1. United States
2. China
3. Hungary

4x100 Medley Relay
1. United States
2. China
3. Australia

Men’s Events:

50 Free
1. Cesar Cielo, Brazil
2. Fred Bousquet, France
3. Nathan Adrian, USA

100 Free
1. Nathan Adrian, USA
2. Cesar Cielo, Brazil
3. Brent Hayden, Canada

200 Free
1. Michael Phelps, USA
2. Ryan Lochte, USA
3. Tae Hwan Park, Korea

400 Free
1. Tae Hwan Park, Korea
2. Sun Yang, China
3. Zhang Lin, China

800 Free
1. Sun Yang, China
2. Zhang Lin, China
3. Ous Mellouli, Tunisia

1,500 Free
1. Sun Yang, China
2. Ous Mellouli, Tunisia
3. Ryan Cochrane, Canada

50 Back
1. Camille Lacourt, France
2. Liam Tancock, Great Britain
3. Junya Koga, Japan

100 Back
1. Camille Lacourt, France
2. Aaron Peirsol, USA
3. David Plummer, USA

200 Back
1. Ryan Lochte, USA
2. Ryosuke Irie, Japan
3. Tyler Clary, USA

50 Breast
1. Felipe Silva, Brazil
2. Cameron van der Burgh, South Africa
3. Fabio Scozolli, Italy

100 Breast
1. Alexander Dale Oen, Norway
2. Kosuke Kitajima, Japan
3. Cameron van der Burgh, South Africa

200 Breast
1. Daniel Gyurta, Hungary
2. Kosuke Kitajima, Japan
3. Eric Shanteau, USA

50 Fly
1. Milorad Cavic, Serbia
2. Geoff Huegill, Australia
3. Cesar Cielo, Brazil

100 Fly
1. Michael Phelps, USA
2. Milorad Cavic, Serbia
3. Geoff Huegill, Australia

200 Fly
1. Michael Phelps, USA
2. Takeshi Matsuda, Japan
3. Tyler Clary, USA

200 IM
1. Ryan Lochte, USA
2. Michael Phelps, USA
3. Markus Rogan, Austria

400 IM
1. Ryan Lochte, USA
2. Tyler Clary, USA
3. Laszlo Cseh, Hungary

4x100 Free Relay
1. United States
2. France
3. Russia

4x200 Free Relay
1. United States
2. Russia
3. France

4x100 Medley Relay
1. United States
2. France
3. Australia

2010 Long Course World Championship

2010-12-25T13:19:00.003-05:00

Over the course of the year, I merged the results of the four biggest long course international meets to create a list of virtual world champions for this year, a year without a long course world champs. As any swim geek like myself knows, this year has been a crazy one in swimming, from the outbreak of "Delhi Belly" at the Commonwealth Games to the two-per-country rule at the Pan Pacs and European Champs. With this list, I took the top two times from different swimmers from one country from any of the four meets , and the top-eight are the world championship final. Only finals times are considered on this list; relay lead-offs, and prelim/semi-final times do not count. Times swam at any other meet throughout the year (national championships, etc.) are not valid. This serves to mimic a World Championships, where nothing matters besides stepping up in the final heat. Without further ado, the list.

Women's Events

50 Free
1. Therese Alshammar, Sweden 24.45 (Europeans)
2. Jessica Hardy, USA 24.63 (Pan Pacs)
3. Hinkelien Schreuder, Netherlands 24.66 (Europeans)
4. Francesca Halsall, Great Britain 24.67 (Europeans)
5. Amanda Weir, USA 24.70 (Pan Pacs)
6. Dorothea Brandt, Germany 24.71 (Europeans)
7. Victoria Poon, Canada 24.76 (Pan Pacs)
8. Aliaksandra Herasimenia, Belarus 24.82 (Europeans)

100 Free
1. Francesca Halsall, Great Britain 53.58 (Europeans)
2. Natalie Coughlin, USA 53.67 (Pan Pacs)
3. Aliaksandra Herasimenia, Belarus 53.82 (Europeans)
4. Emily Seebohm, Australia 53.96 (Pan Pacs)
4. Dana Vollmer, USA 53.96 (Pan Pacs)
6. Yolane Kukla, Australia 54.02 (Pan Pacs)
7. Femke Heemskerk, Netherlands 54.12 (Europeans)
7. Tang Yi, China 54.12 (Asian Games)

200 Free
1. Federica Pellegrini, Italy 1:55.45 (Europeans)

2. Allison Schmitt, USA 1:56.10 (Pan Pacs)
3. Dana Vollmer, USA 1:56.47 (Pan Pacs)
4. Zhu Qianwei, China 1:56.65 (Asian Games)
5. Silke Lippok, Germany 1:56.98 (Europeans)
6. Tang Yi, China 1:57.08 (Asian Games)
7. Agnes Mutina, Hungary 1:57.12 (Europeans)
8. Blair Evans, Australia 1:57.27 (Pan Pacs)

400 Free
1. Rebecca Adlington, Great Britain 4:04.55 (Europeans)
2. Chloe Sutton, USA 4:05.19 (Pan Pacs)
3. Ophelie Cyriell Etienne, France 4:05.40 (Europeans)
4. Kate Ziegler, USA 4:05.52 (Pan Pacs)
5. Shao Yiwen, China 4:05.58 (Asian Games)
6. Katie Goldman, Australia 4:05.84 (Pan Pacs)
7. Blair Evans, Australia 4:06.36 (Pan Pacs)
8. Lotte Friis, Denmark 4:07.10 (Europeans)

800 Free
1. Kate Ziegler, USA 8:21.59 (Pan Pacs)
2. Lotte Friis, Denmark 8:23.27 (Europeans)
3. Li Xuanxu, China 8:23.55 (Asian Games)
4. Ophelie Cyriell Etienne, France 8:24.00 (Europeans)
5. Shao Xiwen, China 8:24.14 (Asian Games)
6. Chloe Sutton, USA 8:24.51 (Pan Pacs)
7. Rebecca Adlington, England/Great Britain 8:24.69 (Commonwealth Games)
8. Federica Pellegrini, Italy 8:24.99 (Europeans)

1,500 Free
1. Lotte Friis, Denmark 15:59.13 (Europeans)
2. Melissa Gorman, Australia 16:01.53 (Pan Pacs)
3. Grainne Murphy, Ireland 16:02.29 (Europeans)
4. Kate Ziegler, USA 16:03.26 (Pan Pacs)
5. Erika Villaecija Garcia, Spain 16:05.08 (Europeans)
6. Kristel Kobrich, Chile 16:06.57 (Pan Pacs)
7. Camelia Alina Potec, Romania 16:17.67 (Europeans)
8. Haley Anderson, USA, 16:18.10 (Pan Pacs)

50 Back
1. Gao Chang, China 27.45 (Asian Games)
2. Aliaksandra Herasimenia, Belarus 27.64 (Europeans)
3. Sophie Edington, Australia 27.83 (Pan Pacs)
4. Aya Terakawa, Japan 27.86 (Asian Games)
5. Daniela Samulski, Germany 27.99 (Europeans)
6. Mercedes Peris Minguet, Spain 28.01 (Europeans)
7. Gemma Spofforth, England/Great Britain 28.03 (Commonwealth Games)
8. Xu Tianlongzi, China 28.14 (Asian Games)

100 Back
1. Zhao Jing, China 59.20 (Asian Games)
2. Emily Seebohm, Australia 59.45 (Pan Pacs)
3. Aya Terakawa, Japan 59.59 (Pan Pacs)
4. Natalie Coughlin, USA 59.70 (Pan Pacs)
5. Gemma Spofforth, Great Britain 59.80 (Europeans)
6. Shiho Sakai, Japan 59.87 (Asian Games)
7. Gao Chang, China 59.90 (Asian Games)
8. Liz Pelton, USA 1:00.15 (Pan Pacs)

200 Back
1. Zhao Jing, China 2:06.46 (Asian Games)
2. Elizabeth Simmonds, Great Britain 2:07.04 (Europeans)
3. Meagan Nay, Australia 2:07.56 (Commonwealth Games)
4. Shiho Sakai, Japan 2:07.81 (Asian Games)
5. Elizabeth Beisel, USA 2:07.83 (Pan Pacs)
6. Missy Franklin, USA 2:08.05 (Pan Pacs)
7. Gemma Spofforth, Great Britain 2:08.25 (Europeans)
8. Emily Seebohm, Australia 2:08.38 (Commonwealth Games)

50 Breast
1. Jessica Hardy, USA 30.03 (Pan Pacs)
2. Yuliya Efimova, Russia 30.29 (Europeans)
3. Rebecca Soni, USA 30.68 (Pan Pacs)
4. Leiston Pickett, Australia 30.75 (Pan Pacs)
5. Leisel Jones, Australia 30.78 (Pan Pacs)
6. Wang Randi, China 31.04 (Asian Games)
7. Kate Haywood, Great Britain 31.12 (Europeans)
8. Zhao Jin, China 31.13 (Asian Games)

100 Breast
1. Rebecca Soni, USA 1:04.93 (Pan Pacs)
2. Leisel Jones, Australia 1:05.66 (Pan Pacs)
3. Yuliya Efmiova, Russia 1:06.32 (Europeans)
4. Ji Liping, China 1:06.91 (Asian Games)
5. Sarah Katsoulis, Australia 1:07.04 (Pan Pacs)
6. Satomi Suzuki, Japan 1:07.05 (Pan Pacs)
7. Rikke Moeller Pederson, Denmark 1:07.36 (Europeans)
7. Jennie Johansson, Sweden 1:07.36 (Europeans)

200 Breast
1. Rebecca Soni, USA 2:20.69 (Pan Pacs)
2. Leisel Jones, Australia 2:23.23 (Pan Pacs)
3. Anastasia Chaun, Russia 2:23.50 (Europeans)
4. Annamay Pierse, Canada 2:23.65 (Pan Pacs)
5. Satomi Suzuki, Japan 2:23.83 (Pan Pacs)
6. Amanda Beard, USA 2:24.30 (Pan Pacs)
7. Sarah Katsoulis, Australia 2:24.38 (Pan Pacs)
8. Sara Nordenstam, Norway 2:24.42 (Europeans)

50 Fly
1. Therese Alshammar, Sweden 25.63 (Europeans)
2. Jeanette Ottesen, Denmark 25.69 (Europeans)
3. Yolane Kukla, Australia 25.99 (Pan Pacs)
3. Marieke Guehrer, Australia 25.99 (Pan Pacs)
5. Melanie Henique, France 26.09 (Europeans)
6. Li Tao, Singapore 26.10 (Asian Games)
7. Sarah Sjostrom, Sweden 26.14 (Europeans)
8. Francesca Halsall, England/Great Britain 26.24 (Commonwealth Games)

100 Fly
1. Sarah Sjostrom, Sweden 57.32 (Europeans)
2. Francesca Halsall, Great Britain 57.40 (Europeans)
3. Alicia Coutts, Australia 57.53 (Commonwealth Games)
4. Dana Vollmer, USA 57.56 (Pan Pacs)
5. Jiao Liuyang, China 57.76 (Asian Games)
6. Therese Alshammar, Sweden 57.80 (Europeans)
7. Christine Magnuson, USA 57.95 (Pan Pacs)
8. Ellen Gandy, England/Great Britain 58.06 (Commonwealth Games)

200 Fly
1. Jiao Liuyang, China 2:05.79 (Asian Games)
2. Katinka Hosszu, Hungary 2:06.71 (Europeans)
3. Jessicah Schipper, Australia 2:06.90 (Pan Pacs)
4. Teresa Crippen, USA 2:06.93 (Pan Pacs)
5. Zsuzsanna Jakobos, Hungary 2:07.06 (Europeans)
6. Kathleen Hersey, USA 2:07.27 (Pan Pacs)
7. Audrey Lacroix, Canada 2:07.31 (Commonwealth Games)
8. Ellen Gandy, Great Britain 2:07.54 (Europeans)

200 IM
1. Yi Shiwen, China 2:09.37 (Asian Games)
2. Alicia Coutts, Australia 2:09.70 (Commonwealth Games)
3. Emily Seebohm, Australia 2:09.93 (Pan Pacs)
4. Katinka Hosszu, Hungary 2:10.09 (Europeans)
5. Evelyn Verraszto, Hungary 2:10.10 (Europeans)
6. Ariana Kukors, USA 2:10.25 (Pan Pacs)
7. Hannah Miley, Great Britain 2:10.89 (Europeans)
8. Caitlin Leverenz, USA 2:11.21 (Pan Pacs)

400 IM
1. Hannah Miley, Great Britain 4:33.09 (Europeans)
2. Yi Shiwen, China 4:33.79 (Asian Games)
3. Elizabeth Beisel, USA 4:34.69 (Pan Pacs)
4. Katinka Hosszu, Hungary 4:36.43 (Europeans)
5. Samantha Hamill, Australia 4:37.84 (Pan Pacs)
6. Zsuzsanna Jakobos, Hungary 4:37.92 (Europeans)
7. Caitlin Leverenz, USA 4:38.03 (Pan Pacs)
8. Li Xuanxu, China 4:38.05 (Asian Games)

4x100 Free Relay
1. United States (N. Coughlin, J. Hardy, A. Weir, D. Vollmer) 3:35.11 (Pan Pacs)
2. Australia (A. Coutts, M. Guehrer, F. Galvez, E. Seebohm) 3:36.36 (Commonwealth Games)
3. China (Li Z., Wang S., Zhu Q., Tang Y.) 3:36.88 (Asian Games)
4. Germany (D. Samulski, S. Lippok, L. Vitting, D. Schreiber) 3:37.72 (Europeans)
5. Japan (H. Ueda, Y. Matsumoto, T. Hagiwara, H. Ito) 3:37.90 (Asian Games)
6. Canada (V. Poon, J. Wilkinson, E. Morningstar, G. Samur) 3:38.14 (Pan Pacs)
7. Great Britain (A. Smith, F. Halsall, J. Sylvester, J. Jackson) 3:38.57 (Europeans)
8. Sweden (J. Lillhage, T. Alshammar, S. Sjostrom, G. Fagundez) 3:38.81 (Europeans)

4x200 Free Relay
1. United States (D. Vollmer, M. Scroggy, K. Hoff, A. Schmitt) 7:51.21 (Pan Pacs)
2. China (Zhu Q., Liu J., Yang S., Tang Y.) 7:51.81 (Asian Games)
2. Hungary (A. Mutina, E. Dara, K. Hosszu, E. Verraszto) 7:52.49 (Europeans)
3. Australia (B. Evans, K. Palmer, K. Goldman, M. Nay) 7:52.64 (Pan Pacs)
4. France (C. Balmy, O. Etienne, M. Farrell, C. Muffat) 7:52.69 (Europeans)
5. Canada (G. Samur, J. Wilkinson, B. Jardin, S. Cheverton) 7:54.32 (Pan Pacs)
6. Great Britain (R. Adlington, J. Carlin, H. Miley, J. Jackson) 7:55.29 (Europeans)
7. Japan (H. Ito, H. Ueda, Y. Matsumoto, R. Sekine) 7:55.92 (Asian Games)
8. New Zealand (L. Boyle, P. Marshall, A. Gessler, N. Hind) 7:57.46 (Commonwealth Games)

4x100 Medley Relay
1. United States (N. Coughlin, R. Soni, D. Vollmer, J. Hardy) 3:55.23 (Pan Pacs)
2. Australia (E. Seebohm, L. Jones, A. Coutts, Y. Kukla) 3:56.96 (Pan Pacs)
3. Japan (A. Terakawa, S. Suzuki, Y. Kato, H. Ueda) 3:57.75 (Pan Pacs)
4. China (Zhao J., Chen H., Jiao L., Tang Y.) 3:57.80 (Asian Games)
5. Great Britain (G. Spofforth, K. Haywood, F. Halsall, A. Smith) 3:59.72 (Europeans)
6. Sweden (H. Stenkvist, J. Hoestman, T. Alshammar, S. Sjostrom) 4:01.18 (Europeans)
7. Canada (J. Wilkinson, A. Pierse, K. Savard, V. Poon) 4:03.08 (Pan Pacs)
8. Germany (J. Mensing, C. Ruhnau, D. Samulski, S. Lippok) 4:03.22 (Europeans)

Men’s Events

50 Free
1. Fred Bousquet, France 21.49 (Europeans)
2. Nathan Adrian, USA 21.55 (Pan Pacs)
3. Cesar Cielo, Brazil 21.57 (Pan Pacs)
4. Stefan Nystrand, Sweden 21.69 (Europeans)
5. Fabien Gilot, France 21.76 (Europeans)
6. Brent Hayden, Canada 21.89 (Pan Pacs)
7. Bruno Fratus, Brazil 21.93 (Pan Pacs)
8. Gideon Louw, South Africa 22.08 (Pan Pacs)

100 Free
1. Brent Hayden, Canada 47.98 (Commonwealth Games)
2. Nathan Adrian, USA 48.15 (Pan Pacs)
3. Cesar Cielo, Brazil 48.48 (Pan Pacs)
4. Alain Bernard, France 48.49 (Europeans)
5. Evgeny Lagunov, Russia 48.52 (Europeans)
6. Simon Burnett, England/Great Britain 48.52 (Commonwealth Games)
7. William Meynard, France 48.56 (Europeans)
8. Jason Lezak, USA 48.57 (Pan Pacs)

200 Free
1. Tae Hwan Park, South Korea 1:44.80 (Pan Pacs)
2. Ryan Lochte, USA 1:45.30 (Pan Pacs)
3. Paul Biedermann, Germany 1:46.06 (Europeans)
4. Sun Yang, China 1:46.25 (Asian Games)
5. Nikita Lobintsev, Russia 1:46.51 (Europeans)
6. Peter Vanderkaay, USA 1:46.65 (Pan Pacs)
7. Sebastiaan Verschuren, Netherlands 1:46.91 (Europeans)
8. Danila Izotov, Russia 1:47.14 (Europeans)

400 Free
1. Tae Hwan Park, South Korea 3:41.53 (Asian Games)
2. Sun Yang, China 3:42.47 (Asian Games)
3. Yannick Agnel, France 3:46.17 (Europeans)
4. Paul Biedermann, Germany 3:46.30 (Europeans)
5. Ryan Cochrane, Canada 3:46.78 (Pan Pacs)
6. Zhang Lin, China 3:46.91 (Pan Pacs)
7. Peter Vanderkaay, USA 3:47.11 (Pan Pacs)
8. Charlie Houchin, USA 3:47.98 (Pan Pacs)

800 Free
1. Sebastien Rouault, France 7:48.28 (Europeans)
2. Ryan Cochrane, Canada 7:48.71 (Pan Pacs)
3. Christian Kubusch, Germany 7:49.12 (Europeans)
4. Samuel Pizzetti, Italy 7:49.94 (Europeans)
5. Chad LaTourette, USA 7:51.62 (Pan Pacs)
6. Takeshi Matsuda, Japan 7:51.87 (Pan Pacs)
7. Gergo Kis, Hungary 7:51.93 (Europeans)
8. Robert Hurley, Australia 7:52.71 (Pan Pacs)

1,500 Free
1. Sun Yang, China 14:35.43 (Asian Games)
2. Ryan Cochrane, Canada 14:49.47 (Pan Pacs)
3. Chad LaTourette, USA 14:54.48 (Pan Pacs)
4. Sebastien Rouault, France 14:55.17 (Europeans)
5. Pal Joensen, Faroe Islands 14:56.90 (Europeans)
6. Zhang Lin, China 14:58.90 (Pan Pacs)
7. Samuel Pizzetti, Italy 14:59.76 (Europeans)
8. Tae Hwan Park, South Korea 15:01.72 (Asian Games)

50 Back
1. Camille Lacourt, France 24.07 (Europeans)
2. Liam Tancock, Great Britain 24.62 (Commonwealth Games)
3. Junya Koga, Japan 24.86 (Pan Pacs)
4. Ashley Delaney, Australia 24.98 (Pan Pacs)
5. Nick Thoman, USA 25.02 (Pan Pacs)
6. Guy Barnea, Israel 25.04 (Europeans)
7. Hayden Stoeckel, Australia 25.08 (Pan Pacs)
8. David Plummer, USA 25.09 (Pan Pacs)

100 Back
1. Camille Lacourt, France 52.11 (Europeans)
2. Aaron Peirsol, USA 53.31 (Pan Pacs)
3. Jeremy Stravius, France 53.44 (Europeans)
4. Liam Tancock, England/Great Britain 53.59 (Commonwealth Games)
5. Ryosuke Irie, Japan 53.61 (Asian Games)
6. Junya Koga, Japan 53.63 (Pan Pacs)
7. Nick Thoman, USA 53.66 (Pan Pacs)
8. Ashley Delaney, Australia, 53.67 (Pan Pacs)

200 Back
1. Ryan Lochte, USA 1:54.12 (Pan Pacs)
2. Tyler Clary, USA 1:54.90 (Pan Pacs)
3. Ryosuke Irie, Japan 1:55.21 (Pan Pacs)
4. James Goddard, England/Great Britain 1:55.58 (Commonwealth Games)
5. Stanislav Donets, Russia 1:57.18 (Europeans)
6. Markus Rogan, Austria 1:57.31 (Europeans)
7. Benjamin Stasiulis, France 1:57.37 (Europeans)
7. Gareth Kean, New Zealand 1:57.37 (Commonwealth Games)

50 Breast
1. Cameron van der Burgh, South Africa 27.18 (Commonwealth Games)
2. Felipe Silva, Brazil 27.26 (Pan Pacs)
3. Fabio Scozolli, Italy 27.38 (Europeans)
4. Dragos Agache, Romania 27.47 (Europeans)
5. Lennart Stekelenberg, Netherlands 27.51 (Europeans)
6. Mark Gangloff, USA 27.52 (Pan Pacs)
7. Alexander Dale Oen, Norway 27.55 (Europeans)
8. Scott Dickens, Canada 27.63 (Pan Pacs)

100 Breast
1. Alexander Dale Oen, Norway 59.20 (Europeans)
2. Kosuke Kitajima, Japan 59.35 (Pan Pacs)
3. Cameron van der Burgh, South Africa 1:00.10 (Commonwealth Games)

4. Hugues Duboscq,France 1:00.15 (Europeans)

5. Christian Sprenger, Australia 1:00.18 (Pan Pacs)
6. Mark Gangloff, USA 1:00.24 (Pan Pacs)

7. Ryo Tateishi, Japan 1:00.26 (Pan Pacs)
8. Brenton Rickard, Australia 1:00.28 (Pan Pacs)

200 Breast
1. Kosuke Kitajima, Japan 2:08.36 (Pan Pacs)
2. Daniel Gyurta, Hungary 2:08.95 (Europeans)
3. Alexander Dale Oen, Norway 2:09.68 (Europeans)
4. Brenton Rickard, Australia 2:09.97 (Pan Pacs)
5. Eric Shanteau, USA 2:10.13 (Pan Pacs)
6. Naoya Tomita, Japan 2:10.36 (Asian Games)
7. Michael Jamieson, Scotland/Great Britain 2:10.97 (Commonwealth Games)
8. Hugues Duboscq, France 2:11.03 (Europeans)

50 Fly
1. Cesar Cielo, Brazil 23.03 (Pan Pacs)
2. Rafael Munoz Perez, Spain 23.17 (Europeans)
3. Nicholas Santos, Brazil 23.33 (Pan Pacs)
4. Jason Dunford, Kenya 23.35 (Commonwealth Games)
5. Geoff Huegill, Australia 23.37 (Commonwealth Games)
6. Roland Schoeman, South Africa 23.39 (Pan Pacs)
7. Fred Bousquet, France 23.41 (Europeans)
8. Evgeny Korotyshkin, Russia 23.43 (Europeans)

100 Fly
1. Michael Phelps, USA 50.86 (Pan Pacs)
2. Geoff Huegill, Australia 51.69 (Commonwealth Games)
3. Evgeny Korotyshkin, Russia 51.73 (Europeans)
4. Joeri Verlinden, Netherlands 51.82 (Europeans)
5. Zhou Jiawei, China 51.83 (Asian Games)
6. Tyler McGill, USA 51.85 (Pan Pacs)
6. Takuro Fujii, Japan 51.85 (Asian Games)
8. Konrad Czerniak, Poland 52.16 (Europeans)
8. Masayuki Kishida, Japan 52.16 (Pan Pacs)

200 Fly
1. Takeshi Matsuda, Japan 1:54.02 (Asian Games)
2. Michael Phelps, USA 1:54.11 (Pan Pacs)
3. Nick D'arcy, Australia 1:54.73 (Pan Pacs)
4. Pawel Korzeniowski, Poland 1:55.00 (Europeans)
5. Ryusuke Sakata, Japan 1:55.23 (Asian Games)
6. Chen Yin, China 1:55.29 (Asian Games)
7. Wu Peng, China 1:55.32 (Asian Games)
8. Kaio Almeida, Brazil 1:55.66 (Pan Pacs)

200 IM
1. Ryan Lochte, USA 1:54.43 (Pan Pacs)
2. Tyler Clary, USA 1:57.61 (Pan Pacs)
3. Laszlo Cseh, Hungary 1:57.73 (Europeans)
4. Thiago Pereira, Brazil 1:57.83 (Pan Pacs)
5. Markus Rogan, Austria 1:58.03 (Europeans)
6. Ken Takakuwa, Japan 1:58.06 (Pan Pacs)
7. James Goddard, England/Great Britain 1:58.10 (Commonwealth Games)
8. Henrique Rodrigues, Brazil 1:59.00 (Pan Pacs)

400 IM
1. Ryan Lochte, USA 4:07.59 (Pan Pacs)
2. Tyler Clary, USA 4:09.55 (Pan Pacs)
3. Laszlo Cseh, Hungary 4:10.95 (Europeans)
4. Thiago Pereira, Brazil 4:12.09 (Pan Pacs)
5. David Verraszto, Hungary 4:12.96 (Europeans)
6. Chad Le Clos, South Africa 4:13.25 (Commonwealth Games)
7. Yuya Horihata, Japan 4:13.35 (Asian Games)
8. Chaosheng Huang, China 4:13.38 (Asian Games)

4x100 Free Relay
1. United States (M. Phelps, R. Lochte, J. Lezak, N. Adrian) 3:11.72 (Pan Pacs)
2. Russia (E. Lagunov, A. Grechin, N. Lobintsev, D. Izotov) 3:12.46 (Europeans)
3. France (F. Gilot, Y. Agnel, W. Meynard, A. Bernard) 3:13.29 (Europeans)
4. Australia (K. Richardson, E. Sullivan, T. D'Orsogna, J. Magnussen) 3:13.92 (Commonwealth Games)
5. England/Great Britain (S. Burnett, L. Tancock, G. Turner, A. Brown) 3:15.05 (Commonwealth Games)
6. Sweden (S. Nystrand, L. Froelander, R. Andreasson, J. Persson) 3:15.07 (Europeans)
7. Italy (F. Magnini, M. Orsi, C. Galenda, L. Leonardi) 3:15.18 (Europeans)
8. South Africa (G. Moore, G. Louw, R. Schoeman, D. Townsend) 3:15.21 (Commonwealth Games)

4x200 Free Relay
1. United States (M. Phelps, P. Vanderkaay, R. Berens, R. Lochte) 7:03.84 (Pan Pacs)
2. Russia (N. Lobintsev, D. Izotov, E. Perunin, A. Sukhorukov) 7:06.71 (Europeans)
3. China (Zhang L., Jiang H., Li Y., Sun Y.) 7:07.68 (Asian Games)
4. Germany (P. Biedermann, T. Wallburger, R. Backhaus, C. Rapp) 7:08.13 (Europeans)
5. France (Y. Agnel, C. Lefert, A. Haramboure, J. Stravius) 7:09.70 (Europeans)
6. Australia (T. Fraser-Holmes, N. Ffrost, R. Napoleon, K. Monk) 7:10.29 (Commonwealth Games)
7. Japan (Y. Kobori, S. Uchida, S. Kuzuhara, T. Matsuda) 7:10.39 (Asian Games)
8. Great Britain (R. Renwick, R. Davenport, D. Carry, R. Bale) 7:11.00 (Europeans)

4x100 Medley Relay
1. France (C. Lacourt, H. Duboscq, F. Bousquet, F. Gilot) 3:31.32 (Europeans)
2. United States (A. Peirsol, M. Gangloff, M. Phelps, N. Adrian) 3:32.48 (Pan Pacs)
3. Australia (A. Delaney, B. Rickard, G. Huegill, E. Sullivan) 3:33.15 (Commonwealth Games)
4. Russia (S. Donets, R. Sludnov, E. Korotyshkin, E. Lagunov) 3:33.29 (Europeans)
5. Japan (J. Koga, K. Kitajima, M. Kishida, T. Fujii) 3:33.90 (Pan Pacs)
6. Netherlands (N. Driebergen, L. Steklenburg, J. Verlinden, S. Verschuren) 3:33.99 (Europeans)
7. Great Britain (L. Tancock, K. Gilchrist, A. James, S. Burnett) 3:35.74 (Europeans)
8. South Africa (C. Crous, C. van der Burgh, C. Le Clos, G. Louw) 3:36.12 (Commonwealth Games)

TYR Capital Classic

2010-12-24T16:43:00.001-05:00

This past weekend, I helped out with the Swimming World TV coverage of the TYR Capital Classic. From Cary, North Carolina, I helped Garrett McCaffrey call all the races from the meet, all of which are now available to watch on-demand. Though I know this blog is coming several days late, I wanted to share some thoughts on the great swimming I saw, the great meet the YMCA of the Triangle Area (YOTA) put on, and gratitude to all who made my experience this past weekend possible and a great experience.

First, the swimming. In the very first swim I saw after arriving late Friday afternoon, Michael Hughes broke the American disability record in 50 fly for the S6 division. His 39.02 took seven seconds off the old record of 46.01. A record is always a great way to start, but it kept going. Joe Bonk opened up the regular meet program with a 20.4 50 free split anchoring YOTA's 200 medley relay, and then Ashlee Linn threw down a 1:48 200 free. Linn would go on to win the 50 free, 100 free, and 200 back, post the top time of the meet in the 100 back (relay lead-off), finish second in both IMs, and break 5:00 for the first time in finishing fourth in the 500 free. I watched her interview with Garrett, and she is very well-spoken, her interview one of the best I saw this weekend. I highly recommend checking out her interview (along with the others).

In the 13-14 age group, Alex Katz put on quite a show. On Friday, he won the 200 free in 1:41, followed by the 400 IM in 4:03. On Saturday, he took the 50 free and 500 free, in which he swam a 4:28, almost beating the winning time in the senior race. With at least three years remaining in which he can attend the meet, he will have numerous more shots at the meet record, which is a 4:25 - held by U.S. National teamer Charlie Houchin! On the final night, he won the 100 free and 200 back in succession, before Colin Ellington took it to him in the 200 IM, winning it with a monster breaststroke leg. When Katz beat Ellington in the 100 free, a fan behind Garrett and me shouted, "Watch him (Ellington), he's gonna take over next year!" It didn't take even that long, however, for him to get a win, and Ellington's fan club, seated behind us, erupted with that win.

The host club's own Dominick Glavich won the title of swimmer of the meet. Glavich, a future swimmer at the University of North Carolina, won the 100 breast, 100 fly, 200 fly, 100 back, and 200 IM over the course of the three day meet. In the 200 fly, his 1:47.87 beat Houchin's meet record, while his dominant 200 IM (1:48.91) was quite something as well. In three of his races, Glavich beat future Florida Gator Nicholas Caldwell. Caldwell skipped some of his signature races this weekend, such as the 500 free and 400 IM, but his third leg on the 800 free relay might be my favorite moment of the weekend. Caldwell, of Sarasota YMCA, dove in several seconds behind YOTA, before absolutely obliterating his competition with a 1:36.16 split for a 200 free! Interestingly, YOTA switched their order shortly before the race, so Caldwell ran down Nathan Walters, not Joe Bonk, on the third leg.

After Bonk split a 20.4 anchoring the 200 medley relay on Sunday, I made a bet with YOTA head coach Chad Onken about what Bonk could do in the individual 50 free. The bet was: I would pay Chad $1 if Bonk swam 20.69 or faster, and Chad would pay me $1 if Bonk swam 20.70 or faster. Sure enough, Bonk led off the 200 free relay in 20.65. Chad immediately texted Garrett (for me), "You got Bonked." In the individual race, Bonk had a terrible start and "only" swam a time of 20.82. I said I won the bet; Chad said he won. I told him we'd call it a draw. In the 100 free the next day, Chad predicted Bonk would swim a 44.9 - which he did, to the tenth. Later on, he led off the 400 free relay in 44.6! There is a reason Auburn sent Aaron Ciarla and Richard Long to the meet.

Finally, I want to give a shout-out to Sabrina Benson. The now-YOTA and future Virginia Tech swimmer showed up to the meet with an injured knee and having missed several weeks of training. She still proceeded to throw down a 56.34 100 back, faster than she did last year, on her way to a win at YMCA Nationals, where she swam a 53. A very brave and impressive swim.

For the first time this year,

YOTA held the meet at the Triangle Aquatic Center in Cary. Being from South Carolina, I have seen a handful of pools in the southeast, but none better than this one. The amount of deck space, size of warm-up area and the stands, and pool set-up is unmatched in this area. Great venue for both a swim meet and a Christmas YMCAparade.

YOTA put on an excellent meet this weekend for swimmers, coaches, and media. Head coach Chad Onken made sure that Garrett and I could get to where we needed to be when we wanted to be there. Hospitality saved us many times throughout the meet - I ate most of my meals there, and I think we took 30 water bottles over the course of the weekend. Additionally, the meet ran exceptionally well and quickly, all a credit to YOTA.

Additionally, I owe a big thank-you to Swimming World, especially to Garrett and also Brent Rutemiller. Garrett was awesome this weekend, making sure I did what I was supposed to do at all times and that I was comfortable at all times. Additionally, he showed me the ropes of streaming a meet and how to handle all of the content. I am extremely grateful; without him being there, I would not have had this opportunity to work at the Capital Classic. Additionally, I thank Brent for agreeing to cover all my expenses the entire weekend; I spent $17 over the course of the meet; and at least $12 of that went to the Fran Crippen Elevation Foundation.

Finally, I had an amazing swim-geek experience in the Triangle Area this weekend. Garrett and Chad took my questions about swimming and answered them. I am greatful that both appreciate my extreme passion about swimming and try to help it grow. In addition to Long and Ciarla of Auburn, I met University of South Carolina coach Jason Mermont, who provided some interesting insight of his own from his own perspective in the SEC. Finally, former University of Arizona NCAA champ Taylor Baughman, now working with Evan Morgenstein and Premier Management, provided insight into the west coast of competitive swimming as well as the agents she represents.

I apologize to anyone who I met this weekend and failed to mention. It was an awesome experience that I hope I am fortunate enough to have again in the future!

World Short Course Championships Predictions

2010-12-12T21:10:00.003-05:00

The World Short Course Champs get underway on Wednesday in Dubai, and most of the athletes are in the United Arab Emirates preparing to race. The major exceptions include the Israeli team and U.S. backstroker David Plummer. This was one of the hardest meets I have ever predicted. You just don't know about a lot of things - how swimmers will do short course, how much certain people have tapered, etc. Of course, your guess is as good as mine in this week's prediction contest; email me at drieder@comcast.net your list of winners to me by Tuesday night, 10pm eastern. Also, if you'd like, please post a link on my Facebook page. You can find full entry lists and live results at Omega Timing.

My Predictions:

Men’s 200 Free
1. Ryan Lochte, USA
2. Paul Biedermann, Germany
3. Yannick Agnel, France

Women’s 50 Breast
1. Yulia Efimova, Russia
2. Rebecca Soni, USA
3. Leiston Pickett, Australia

Men’s 100 Back
1. Stanislav Donets, Russia
2. Nick Thoman, USA
3. Camille Lacourt, France

Women’s 200 Fly
1. Liu Zige, China
2. Katinka Hosszu, Hungary
3. Felicity Galvez, China

Men’s 100 Breast
1. Cameron van der Burgh, South Africa
2. Felipe Silva, Brazil
3. Mike Alexandrov, USA

Women’s 100 Back
1. Natalie Coughlin, USA
2. Zhao Jing, China
3. Gao Chang, China

Men’s 100 Fly
1. Geoff Huegill, Australia
2. Evgeny Korotyshkin, Russia
3. Steffen Deibler, Germany

Women’s 400 IM
1. Hannah Miley, Great Britain
2. Yi Shiwen, China
3. Ariana Kukors, USA

Men’s 400 Free Relay
1. United States
2. France
3. Russia

Women’s 800 Free Relay
1. United States
2. France
3. Hungary

Women’s 100 Free
1. Ranomi Kromowidjojo, Netherlands
2. Femke Heemskerk, Netherlands
3. Natalie Coughlin, USA

Men’s 400 IM
1. Ryan Lochte, USA
2. Tyler Clary, USA
3. Laszlo Cseh, Hungary

Women’s 50 Fly
1. Therese Alshammar, Sweden
2. Marieke Guehrer, Australia
3. Inge Dekker, Netherlands

Men’s 50 Free
1. Cesar Cielo, Brazil
2. Fred Bousquet, France
3. Nathan Adrian, USA

Women’s 100 IM
1. Hinkelien Schreuder, Netherlands
2. Zhao Jing, China
3. Evelyn Verraszto, Hungary

Men’s 800 Free Relay
1. United States
2. Russia
3. Italy

Women’s 800 Free
1. Kate Ziegler, USA
2. Lotte Friis, Denmark
3. Federica Pellegrini, Italy

Men’s 50 Back
1. Stanislav Donets, Russia
2. Nick Thoman, USA
3. Camille Lacourt, France

Women’s 200 Back
1. Missy Franklin, USA
2. Alexianne Castel, France
3. Kseniya Moskvina, Russia

Men’s 50 Fly
1. Rafael Munoz, Spain
2. Fred Bousquet, France
3. Geoff Huegill, Australia

Women’s 100 Breast
1. Rebecca Soni, USA
2. Leisel Jones, Australia
3. Yulia Efimova, Russia

Men’s 400 Free
1. Ous Mellouli, Tunisia
2. Yannick Agnel, France
3. Paul Biedermann, Germany

Men’s 200 IM
1. Ryan Lochte, USA
2. Markus Rogan, Austria
3. Tyler Clary, USA

Women’s 400 Free
1. Federica Pellegrini, Italy
2. Katie Hoff, USA
3. Coralie Balmy, France

Men’s 200 Breast
1. Daniel Gyurta, Hungary
2. Felipe Silva, Brazil
3. Eric Shanteau, USA

Women’s 400 Medley Relay
1. United States
2. Sweden
3. Australia

Women’s 50 Back
1. Gao Chang, China
2. Marieke Guehrer, Australia
3. Zhao Jing, China

Men’s 100 Free
1. Nathan Adrian, USA
2. Cesar Cielo, Brazil
3. Danila Izotov, Russia

Women’s 100 Fly
1. Dana Vollmer, USA
2. Therese Alshammar, Sweden
3. Christine Magnuson, USA

Men’s 100 IM
1. Ryan Lochte, USA
2. Markus Deibler, Germany
3. Peter Mankoc, Slovenia

Women’s 50 Free
1. Ranomi Kromowidjojo, Netherlands
2. Hinkelien Schreuder, Netherlands
3. Jessica Hardy, USA

Women’s 200 IM
1. Ariana Kukors, USA
2. Katinka Hosszu, Hungary
3. Evelyn Verraszto, Hungary

Men’s 50 Breast
1. Cameron van der Burgh, South Africa
2. Roland Schoeman, South Africa
3. Felipe Silva, Brazil

Women’s 400 Free Relay
1. Netherlands
2. United States
3. Sweden

Men’s 200 Back
1. Ryan Lochte, USA
2. Tyler Clary, USA
3. Arkady Vyatchanin, Russia

Women’s 200 Breast
1. Rebecca Soni, USA
2. Leisel Jones, Australia
3. Annamay Pierse, Canada

Men’s 200 Fly
1. Pawel Korzeniowski, Poland
2. Laszlo Cseh, Hungary
3. Chad Le Clos, South Africa

Women’s 200 Free
1. Federica Pellegrini, Italy
2. Femke Heemskerk, Netherlands
3. Dana Vollmer, USA

Men’s 400 Medley Relay
1. Russia
2. United States
3. France

Men’s 1,500 Free
1. Ous Mellouli, Tunisia
2. Federico Colbertaldo, Italy
3. Pal Joensen, Faroe Islands

U.S. Short Course World Championships Team - Women

2010-11-25T21:04:00.009-05:00

The World Short Course Champs are looming in less than three weeks in Dubai. The U.S. team prospects appear much better than usual, considering this will be the first time since 2004 that USA Swimming has sent a nearly-full team to this Championship meet. Other than Americans and few others, I don't know exactly which swimmers will swim in the short course meet. For example, both Thiago Pereira and Brent Hayden have announced they will bypass the meet, and Australia and Great Britain will both be sending very limited rosters; in fact, only Hannah Miley and Jemma Lowe will swim for Britain in Manchester. With this limited knowledge (and my lack of free time between now and the meet, here's a basic idea of what to expect from Team USA in Dubai, starting with the women's events. The line-ups I assume for non-Olympic events are unofficial; I am merely speculating what would be best for the U.S. under the qualifying procedure.

50 Free - Jessica Hardy, Amanda Weir

Europeans Therese Alshammar, Hinkelien Schreuder, and Ranomi Kromowidjojo enter the meet as slight favorites, but Hardy also has a strong chance to earn a medal, possibly even gold. If she has an oustanding meet, Weir has an outside chance to medal as well.

100 Free - Natalie Coughlin, Dana Vollmer

Based on her outstanding short course abilities, Coughlin has a strong chance to medal and perhaps even win gold, while Vollmer is an outside shot at a medal. Dutch swimmers Kromowidjojo and Femke Heemskerk along with Coughlin, are top contenders.

200 Free - Dana Vollmer, Katie Hoff

Both Vollmer and Hoff have had strong starts to their respective seasons, and both could easily come home with medals. Federica Pellegrini is a strong favorite to win gold easily, while Femke Heemskert, Camille Muffat, and Silke Lippok also could medal.

400 Free - Chloe Sutton, Katie Hoff

Once again, Pellegrini is a strong favorite, and no one should be able to touch her in the field. Sutton and Hoff will battle with French and Australian swimmers in the field for the minor medals, and the two could go 2-3; anyone beating Pellegrini is unconceivable at this point.

800 Free - Kate Ziegler, Chloe Sutton

Coming off an amazing comeback season, Ziegler could be favored to claim the world title which she has twice claimed long course but never short course. Her biggest competition will come from current long course world champion Lotte Friis, while Sutton, along with French swimmers, Australian swimmers, and even Pellegrini, could all medal.

50/100 Back - Natalie Coughlin, Missy Franklin

Based on the meet's attendees, Coughlin has a very strong chance to claim 100 back gold, especially considering her amazing underwater swimming skills. She could also be a factor in the 50 distance, if she chooses to pursue that race. Franklin is an outside medal chance in the 100 back.

200 Back - Missy Franklin, Madison White

With most of this year's world top 200 backstrokers missing the meet, Franklin has a very strong chance for a medal, perhaps even gold, based on the amazing year she has had. On the other side of the spectrum, White merely made the team based on a large number of swimmers declining; in her first major international meet, a final for her would be a remarkable achievement.

50 Breast - Jessica Hardy, Rebecca Soni

Even though swimmers cannot qualify for stroke 50s without first qualifying for the 100 of that stroke, Hardy is already on the team, and she has led the world in this event long course for the past four years, so she would be a strong favorite for gold, if she is allowed to swim. Soni, along with Yuliya Efimova, should round out the medals.

100 Breast - Rebecca Soni, Micah Lawrence

Soni has dominated the breaststroke events since Beijing, and she should be favored ahead of Leisel Jones. Her world record of 1:02.70 could possibly come under threat. Defending champ Hardy would be a much bigger threat than Auburn's Lawrence, but she could make the final with a great performance.

200 Breast - Rebecca Soni, Micah Lawrence

Soni should dominate this race and possibly approach her world record of 2:14.57. Jones and possibly Annamay Pierse should be the only swimmers anywhere close to the Olympic champ. Lawrence has a better chance to final in the longer distance, but a medal would be a long shot for her.

50/100 Fly - Christine Magnuson, Dana Vollmer

Both Magnuson and Vollmer will battle for gold in the 100 fly, along with Therese Alshammar and Felicity Galvez. In the 50, Alshammar will be heavily favored, but Magnuson has a strong chance to end up on the podium.

200 Fly - Mary Descenza Mohler, Kim Vandenberg

Neither has swum especially fast in competition this year, but defending champ Mohler has the potential to step up and repeat her amazing feat from two years ago in Manchester, and Vandenberg is another outside shot.

100 IM - Natalie Coughlin, Ariana Kukors

Though Coughlin has swam no race that would put her in this event via the qualifying procedure, it would be hard to deny a woman that held the world record in this race for seven years and is currently ranked no. 3 in the world. She is a gold medal-threat, but she will face tough competition from Hinkelien Schreuder, among others. For Kukors, this will merely be a bonus event.

200 IM - Ariana Kukors, Missy Franklin

Depending on who shows up, Kukors could add a short course world title to the long course one she picked up in Rome last year; at the very least, Kukors should expect to win a medal in Dubai. Although she is weaker here than in backstroke, Franklin is an amazing swimmer and should make the top eight.

400 IM - Ariana Kukors, Katie Hoff

Both American swimmers have outside chances for medals, depending greatly on what swimmers show up and choose to focus on this event. Hannah Miley should be heavily favored to win here.

4x100 Free Relay - Natalie Coughlin, Dana Vollmer, Jessica Hardy, Kara Lynn Joyce

The Americans will battle for gold with the Netherlands, who have back much for their team that won Olympic gold in 2008 and the World title in 2009. Although only four swimmers are selected for relays for this meet, both alternates for next summer's worlds (Amanda Weir and Missy Franklin) are on the team and can be used as substitutes. I expect Coughlin, Vollmer, and Hardy to swim in finals, with Joyce and Weir battling for the fourth spot.

4x200 Free Relay - Dana Vollmer, Katie Hoff, Dagny Knutson, Jasmine Tosky

Even without Allison Schmitt, this team will be tough to beat. Vollmer and Hoff are solid veterans, Knutson has show much promise over the past two years, and Tosky is a perpetually-improving young stud. Based on her 1:43.90 at the Minnesota Grand Prix, Missy Franklin would be a great option for this relay, perhaps relegating Tosky to just a prelim swim.

4x100 Medley Relay - Natalie Coughlin, Rebecca Soni, Dana Vollmer, Jessica Hardy

Alternates: Missy Franklin (back), Hardy/Micah Lawrence (breast), Christine Magnuson/Mary Mohler (fly), Kara Lynn Joyce/Amanda Weir (free)

This team should not struggle to win this race, most likely with ease. The same quartet recorded the fastest long course time in the world this year by nearly two seconds, and no other nation is bringing a strong enough team to challenge them.

October Swimmers of the Month

2010-10-31T21:08:00.007-04:00

As the month of October winds down, I have another list of this month's top swimmers. Most of the performances recognized come from the Commonwealth Games and the four October stops on the World Cup.

Pacific Rim Women’s – Alicia Coutts, Australia

Won five golds at the Commonwealth Games, including the 200 IM, in which she posted the fastest textile suit time in history (2:09.70)

Pacific Rim Men’s – Geoff Huegill, Australia

Capped off his remarkable comeback with Commonwealth gold in the 100 fly (51.69) and 400 medley relay, as well as silver in the 50 fly (23.37)

African Men’s – TIE Cameron van der Burgh, South Africa and Roland Schoeman, South Africa
van der Burgh:

Swept the 50 and 100 breast at the Commonwealth Games, with the world’s top time in the 50 (27.18) and third-fastest time in the 100 (1:00.10)

Schoeman:

Won three medals (one silver, two bronze) at the Commonwealth Games and has posted eight World Cup wins in October; holds the top short course times in the world in the 50 breast (26.09) and 50 fly (22.39)

European Women’s – Therese Alshammar, Sweden

Currently leading the World Cup standings, having posted nine wins in four stops this month; posted the world's top 50 fly short course time (25.24)

European Men’s – James Goddard, Great Britain

Won the 200 back at Commonwealth Games in 1:55.58, making him the fourth-fastest performer this year, while also winning the 200 IM (1:58.10)

American Women’s – Dana Vollmer, United States

Set four American records at the World Cup in Berlin, the 200 free (1:53.67), 100 fly (55.59) and 100 free twice (52.71-prelims; 52.50-finals); in the 100 fly, she missed the world record by a mere half second

American Men’s – Brent Hayden, Canada

Swept the sprints at the Commonwealth Games, including his 47.98 100 free, the only swim under 48 seconds this year

U.S. Men’s – Conor Dwyer

Posted blistering times at the Florida-Georgia duel meet on Friday, winning the 1,000 free (9:00.48), 200 free (1:37.77), and 500 free (4:25.46) in succession, before leading of Florida’s victorious 400 free relay in 44.88.

Special mention once again to Fran Crippen. Now laid to rest in his hometown of Conshohocken, Pennsylvania, the swimming community continues to honor his many contributions to the sport. Everyone has heard the story, and we have all shed tears. For now, this blog commemorating the top performances in the month of October, is dedicated to Fran Crippen.

Delhi-Belly Drama a Predictable Outcome of Commonwealth Games

2010-10-16T23:28:00.002-04:00

Originally posted by Braden Keith at The Swimmer's Circle.

The 2010 Commonwealth Games in Delhi, India were, by most accounts, a failure. Between last-minute completion of event venues, injuries at test events, terrorist threats, lack of security, reports of sloppy construction, and the now-infamous Delhi Belly that many athletes are reportedly still feeling the effects of well after leaving the country, the event left a lot to be desired. And as such, I’ve got a serious bone to pick with the collective international governing bodies–which I will henceforth refer to as the IGB–of the sporting world. It seems as though lately, these governing bodies have been putting so much effort into bringing the world’s backwoods and slums into the sporting fore-front that they have neglected the true nature of selecting these host cities.

I began to really get frustrated when I heard that Baku, Azerbaijan was selected as one of seven semi-finalist for the 2016 Olympic Games. While most people I know couldn’t pick out Azerbaijan on a map if you gave them 10 tries, I am quite familiar with the country, as my parents were Baku residents for 3 years.

Let me break this down for you. In Baku, 99% of the wealth is concentrated in government employees and foreigners, while much of the population lives in poverty. Traffic drives 6 cars wide on a 3-lane road, with horns seemingly connected to both the gas and brake pedals of cars. The corruption is so rampant, and the government so xenophobic, that non-citizens have to use special license plates so that the police force knows who they should pull over for traffic violations (which, in Azerbaijan, is a meaningless phrase, because any attempt to follow a traffic law will surely result in a near-death experience). Bribery is a way of life, and nobody is ashamed about it. Everyone pays off the police, because they are afraid of what will happen if they don’t. Greasing palms is the only way for business to get done. The infrastructure is effectively divided into three groups: ancient structures built in the oil boom of the early 20th century, depressive Soviet structures, and a few modern buildings built exclusively for the use of the lucrative oil companies.

Azerbaijan and their neighbors Armenia have been locked in conflict over the NKR region for at least the last century, including allegations of genocide. Baku has their own special ills referred to as “Baku-Belly” that is equally potent as the Indian version.

So, if you will pull out your Olympic-criteria scorecards:

Human Rights: Failure

Infrastructure: Failure

City of the World: Failure (since the Silk Road Shut Down, anyways)

Government Transparency: Failure

Traffic: Failure

Pollution: Failure

Friendly to Foreigners: Failure

Safe Water: Failure

Demonstrated Ability to Host Large Scale Events: Failure

Demonstrated Ability to Build World Class Facilities: Failure

Now, this is not to say that Baku is the worst place in the world. The history of the city makes it one of the most fascinating in the World, and I encourage anybody who gets a chance to visit there to do so and take a qualified tour of the city. But in terms of hosting a large-scale event with 12,000 athletes and 100 times that many traveling to be a part of the Olympic spectacle, Baku shouldn’t even have been accepted as an applicant.

Similarly, a city like Rio de Janiero, which won the 2016 bid, is a city that, while huge in population, has a serious crime problem. On top of that, they were not even able to muster enough internal financial support to host their 2009 Swimming World Cup event. Rio received only the fifth-highest rating amongst the semi-finalists, and wouldn’t have even been a finalist save for Doha, Qatar’s plan to hold the games in October as a result of the extreme summer heat.

The only saving grace here for the IOC is that FIFA will absorb a good portion of the costs in preparing for Brazil to host the 2014 soccer World Cup.

Beijing, China, which hosted the 2008 Games, was widely regarded as a competitive success. But this was as much a result of heavy marketing, heavy spending, and suppression of dissenters as anything else. Athletes were hampered by the traffic and heavy pollution in the city, and there a shroud of the Tibetan situation hung over the whole Games.

Obviously, there are very few (if any) perfect cities, and it brings excitement to rotate the games to different locales. But as elite athletes, there are a few basic needs: mainly, the athletes need to be safe, they need to be welcomed by the local population, and they need to have access to healthy food and water. If a city can’t provide even these basic needs, they shouldn’t be in the running.

I understand why the IOC, Commonwealth, FINA, FIBA, etc. etc. choose these cities. They are usually on the lesser-developed continents (South America, Asia, Africa), and are cities with enormous populations (Baku has 2 million people, Rio 6 million, and Delhi 12 million). They are also centers for even larger (and usually even less-developed) populations. The marketing opportunities for the IGB’s, and their sponsors, are unbelievable.

Events like the Olympic Games and Commonwealth Games were designed to showcase the world’s best athletes in the world’s great cities. They have now turned into nothing more than a economic and political machine. We criticize our athletes for politicizing the games and for not participating due to the potential financial risks of an injury, but how can they help but do so when that is the example set for them?

This is not to say that only cities like New York, Tokyo, or London would make good host cities. Many smaller, and more underrated, cities, like Chicago, Damascus (if they relent on their Israeli travel restrictions), Durban, or Yokohama would also make fantastic destinations for major events.

FINA, for the most part, has nailed their World Championship host cities. Rome in 2009, and Barcelona in 2013. Shanghai (2011 host) is a more modern city than Beijing, and has significantly superior transportation infrastructure. They also have impressively low pollution for a city of that size-on par with a city like Los Angeles only at three times the population. They have also aggressively been adding green spaces and relocating industry since the 1990′s.

They got a break when Dubai pulled out of hosting, rather than limping their way to a sub-par event with little support from the citizenship. Dubai could certainly be a formidable host for another, more wide-spread event, like the Asian Games. Qatar would be a much better future option in the region, as they have already demonstrated the ability to host large scale events (the 2006 Asian Games). Doha has been a finalist for seemingly every large event that’s come up in the last few years, and it’s only a matter of time before they land a few of them.

The Commonwealth Games committee has done a significantly better job of selecting their 2014 host, Glasgow Scotland, but needs to be careful in 2018, where the two finalists bids are The Gold Coast, Australia, and Hambantota, Sri Lanka. The Gold Coast is a very well-educated, very well-educated, very beautiful city. Sri Lanka is only a year removed from a civil war, and will likely run into many of the same pitfalls that Delhi did.

Delhi already suffered a pull-out by many of the Commonwealth’s top athletes because of concerns over safety. If events like the Commonwealth Games want to remain legitimate events, they need to return to choosing host cities that can handle these events and where conditions will allow for elite, world-class performances.

The Best Male Sprinter in the World

2010-10-09T21:27:00.003-04:00

After Nathan Adrian's sweep of the 50 and 100 free races at Pan Pacs - both ahead of world record-holder Cesar Cielo - I proclaimed him the best sprinter in the world. Tom Wildridge of the Speed Endurance blog disagreed. He believed (and still does) that the best sprinter in the world must have won a major title that year AND be ranked first in the world in either the 50 or 100 free. I said that a balance between the 50 and 100 free was required to earn such a prestigious title, ruling out 50 free world no. 1 and European champion Fred Bousquet from such an honor, as he had not performed up to his capabilities in the 100 free. He did not really have a true best sprinter in the world.

After Brent Hayden won the Commonwealth Games in 47.98, the top time in the world, Tom named Hayden the world's best sprinter. At the time, I agreed. He appeared to have the best balance of 50 and 100 free for the year. In a comment, I wrote, "Right now, no one can argue that Hayden is the best sprinter in the world, and he will leave Commonwealth Games the best sprinter in the world as long as he does two things in the 50: 1) breaks 22, and 2) wins a medal. Both seem near assured."

As it would turn out, Hayden did win gold but did not break 22, his winning time 22.01. Thus, the choice for world's best sprinter becomes less clear. To find a clear winner, I decided to add up long course best times this year for 13 of the world's premier sprinters. This is what I found.

1. Nathan Adrian, USA 21.55 + 48.15 = 69.70
2. Brent Hayden, Canada 21.89 + 47.98 = 69.87
3. Cesar Cielo, Brazil 21.55 + 48.48 = 70.03
4. Fabien Gilot, France 21.75 + 48.47 = 70.22
5. Alain Bernard, France 21.99 + 48.32 = 70.31
6. Stefan Nystrand, Sweden 21.69 + 48.82 = 70.51
7. Andrey Grechin, Russia 21.98 + 48.59 = 70.57
8. Eamon Sullivan, Australia 22.09 + 48.52 = 70.61
9. Fred Bousquet, France 21.36 + 49.34 = 70.70
9. Simon Burnett, Great Britain 22.16 + 48.54 = 70.70
11. Jason Lezak, USA 22.27 + 48.47 = 70.74
12. Evgeny Lagunov, Russia 22.54 + 48.23 = 70.77
13. Michael Phelps, USA 23.43 + 48.15 = 71.58

If I use Tom's criteria that the best sprinter in the world must have won a major title in either the 50 or 100 free this year, the list narrows itself out.

1. Nathan Adrian, USA 21.55 + 48.15 = 69.70
2. Brent Hayden, Canada 21.89 + 47.98 = 69.87

3. Alain Bernard, France 21.99 + 48.32 = 70.31

4. Fred Bousquet, France 21.36 + 49.34 = 70.70

It is a tight call, but to me the choice is clear. Based on his incredible world ranking and regional superiority in both the 50 and 100 free, Nathan Adrian remains the best sprinter in the world for 2010.

Commonwealth Games Wrap-Up

2010-10-09T20:24:00.005-04:00

The swimming portion of the Commonwealth Games finished up this morning (my time) in Delhi. I spent the week in school, and in my few minutes of free time, I would rush to update the Swimming World Virtual Meet, which compares results of the European Championships, Pan Pacs, and these Commonwealth Games. Though the meet was for the most part slow and relatively uneventful, a few storylines did emerge in the meet's final days, which I would like to shed some light on.

On Friday in their 50 free semi-final, Roland Schoeman and Simon Burnett both false started after a spectator screamed and the starter told the athletes to stand. However, officials permitted both to swim, and both made it into the final. Afterwards, the always-outspoken Schoeman claimed, "It's unacceptable to be at a professional event like this and have people going on like monkeys." Australian media picked up the quote and saw racial undertones, and many proceeded to alienate Schoeman. Since that semi-final, Schoeman has been attacked all across the web, including his Twitter account. On a live blog during today's finals, a Herald Sun reporter in Delhi noted, "Mr Schoeman, he of the 'monkey' comment, goes in Lane 2 here. Shouldn't really be here but anyway..." A commenter named Tim remarked, "at least the arrogant cheat didnt win it," to which the reporter replied, "Indeed, but shouldn't even have silver."

This is horrible treatment of a world class athlete who merely wished to express the complete unprofessionality of the situation in Delhi, which began with two days in the Athlete Village without air conditioning. Quiet for the start isn't much to ask for; at every level I have swam (club, high school, even summer league), starters always have to remind spectators to remain quiet during the start of races. It is not much to ask for. While Schoeman's quote can be interpreted as offensive, he was frustrated with the situation he should not have had to deal with. I support Roland, even as the uninformed continue to insult him.

After finishing up in Delhi with a silver medal in the 100 breast and bronze in the 200 breast, Aussie Christian Sprenger showed uncertainty about his future. Some reports claimed that Sprenger was considering retirement, while most gave this quote: "My ideas about the 200 are crowded, but for the moment that was the last long course 200 of my career." Indeed, Sprenger has struggled so much with the knowledge that he will never again approach his 200 breast world record that he intends to abandon it to focus on the 100 distance. With the return to textile suits, many talked about the mental games the transition have played on the athletes, but no one expected an athlete to switch events! Sprenger has shown much success already with his new 100 focus, winning silvers at both Pan Pacs (behind Kosuke Kitajima) and Commonwealth Games (behind Cameron van der Burgh). Still, he has potential in the 200, and it will be odd to see him avoiding the event. However, Sprenger did remark, "But Libby's (Trickett) coming back from retirement so you can never say never."

Back here in the U.S., Alabama defeated the Auburn men in the pool today in Tuscaloosa, 133-110. What does this have to do with Commonwealth Games? In reality, Auburn's best sprinter (and arguably best swimmer), England's Adam Brown, is in Delhi right now, where he competed in the finals of both the 50 free and 100 free. In addition to Brown's absence, senior Kohlton Norys swam only on Auburn's losing 800 free relay. Aside from those two, Auburn was nearly full strength. Past contributors such as Jared White and Adam Klein could not muster enough strength to win what in the past would have been an easy team. In Auburn's signature events, Alabama freshman Vlad Caciuc and BJ Hornikel defeated the best Auburn could offer in the 50 and 100 free, respectively. Although this is way to early in the season to mean anything, this does not bode well for Auburn's rebound following 2010's disappointing sixth-place finish at NCAA's. If Auburn cannot beat Alabama, clearly they will not be challenging the likes of Cal for the championship this March. Their 14-straight SEC title streak could be coming to an end, with the likes of Florida, Georgia, and Alabama looming as threats. I started a College Swimming thread on the topic, so check it out.

Back to the action in India. Australia's Alicia Coutts and Canada's Brent Hayden emerged from Delhi as the top swimmers of the meet, while England's Liam Tancock and James Goddard, Australia's Leisel Jones, and South Africa's Cameron van der Burgh also put forth top performances. However, no one could surpass Geoff Huegill as the top story of the meet. For two years, many have commented on Huegill's amazing comeback to the sport, losing 40kg in hopes of representing Australia in the 50 fly in Delhi and winning a medal. Huegill completed this run on Tuesday, finishing just behind Kenya's Jason Dunford, finishing just 0.02 shy of a fairytale ending to that comeback.

However, Huegill had another comeback going, and this one has just begun. After qualifying for the Australian team for Delhi in the 50 fly in March, Huegill looked towards the 100 fly. At the Olympics in Sydney, he won bronze in the 100 fly, after posting the fastest time of the meet in the semi-final (51.96). That time remained his lifetime best for the long haul. In 2004, he finished eighth in the 100 fly. In his comeback up until May, the 100 fly had been his secondary event, until he and his coach began experimenting in the longer event, with the possibility of staying around until the 2012 games to race the 100 fly. A strong showing throughout the summer in the 100 fly got Huegill comfortable with the event, and he finished fifth in the event at Pan Pacs, posting a 52.32, his fastest time in nine years. He also split a stellar 51.45 on the medley relay. Although he only finished fifth in the event at Australian Nationals in March, he finished ahead of any other Aussie at Pan Pacs, giving him the opportunity to take up the event for Delhi.

Entering the event at the Commonwealth Games, many considered Dunford the favorite to double up and add the 100 fly win to his win in the 50, especially after Olympic bronze medalist Andrew Lauterstein withdrew from the event with "Delhi Belly." Dunford went out faster than Huegill, but the man known affectionately as "Skippy" came off the wall with the lead and extended it going into the wall. Huegill won in 51.69, tying USA's Tyler McGill as the second fastest swimmer in the world this year. Moreover, ten years after the fact, he beat his best time of 51.96 from the semi-final in Sydney. Afterwards, he committed to a run at the London Olympics in the event, where he will chase the man who has owned the 100 fly for the past four years, Michael Phelps. 51.69 won't medal in London. But Skippy has a chance to do much better and challenge the new generation of butterflyers two years down the line. What began simply as a crusade for better health has become much, much more. Watch that inspiring race here.

Commonwealth Games

2010-10-03T11:14:00.002-04:00

The Commonwealth Games get underway today in Delhi, India, with the swimming competition beginning tomorrow (tonight in the United States). Full recaps of each race will be immediately available on SwimmingWorld.com, and I will try to keep up with the Swimming World Virtual Meet throughout the week. For those of you who don't remember, I started the Virtual Meet during Pan Pacs and the European Championships to determine who would have won the world title and made the final in each World Championship event.

As usual, I have predicted out the meet:

Men:
50 Free
1. Ashley Callus, Australia
2. Brent Hayden, Canada
3. Eamon Sullivan, Australia

100 Free
1. Brent Hayden, Canada
2. Eamon Sullivan, Australia
3. Kyle Richardson, Australia

200 Free
1. Thomas Fraser-Holmes, Australia
2. Kenrick Monk, Australia
3. Jean Basson, South Africa

400 Free
1. Ryan Cochrane, Canada
2. Robert Hurley, Australia
3. Robbie Renwick, Scotland

1,500 Free
1. Ryan Cochrane, Canada
2. Robert Hurley, Australia
3. Herman Heerden, South Africa

50 Back
1. Liam Tancock, England
2. Ashley Delaney, Australia
3. Daniel Arnamnart, Australia

100 Back
1. Liam Tancock, England
2. Ashley Delaney, Australia
3. Hayden Stoeckel, Australia

200 Back
1. James Goddard, England
2. Ashley Delaney, Australia
3. Chris Walker-Hebborn, England

50 Breast
1. Cameron van der Burgh, South Africa
2. Brenton Rickard, Australia
3. Scott Dickens, Canada

100 Breast
1. Brenton Rickard, Australia
2. Christian Sprenger, Australia
3. Cameron van der Burgh, South Africa

200 Breast
1. Brenton Rickard, Australia
2. Michael Jamieson, Scotland
3. Neil Versfeld, South Africa

50 Fly
1. Geoff Huegill, Australia
2. Roland Schoeman, South Africa
3. Andrew Lauterstein, Australia

100 Fly
1. Andrew Lauterstein, Australia
2. Geoff Huegill, Australia
3. Michael Rock, England

200 Fly
1. Nick D’arcy, Australia
2. Michael Rock, England
3. Chad Le Clos, South Africa

200 IM
1. James Goddard, England
2. Darian Townsend, South Africa
3. Leith Brodie, Australia

400 IM
1. Thomas Fraser-Holmes, Australia
2. Roberto Pavoni, England
3. Riaan Schoeman, South Africa

4x100 Free Relay
1. Australia
2. South Africa
3. Canada

4x200 Free Relay
1. Australia
2. Canada
3. South Africa

4x100 Medley Relay
1. Australia
2. South Africa
3. Canada

Women:
50 Free
1. Francesca Halsall, England
2. Victoria Poon, Canada
3. Yolane Kukla, Australia

100 Free
1. Francesca Halsall, England
2. Emily Seebohm, Australia
3. Yolane Kukla, Australia

200 Free
1. Blair Evans, Australia
2. Rebecca Adlington, England
3. Kylie Palmer, Australia

400 Free
1. Rebecca Adlington, England
2. Kylie Palmer, Australia
3. Katie Goldman, Australia

800 Free
1. Rebecca Adlington, England
2. Katie Goldman, Australia
3. Wendy Trott, South Africa

50 Back
1. Emily Seebohm, Australia
2. Sophie Edington, Australia
3. Grace Loh, Australia

100 Back
1. Emily Seebohm, Australia
2. Gemma Spofforth, England
3. Elizabeth Simmonds, England

200 Back
1. Elizabeth Simmonds, England
2. Belinda Hocking, Australia
3. Meagen Nay, Australia

50 Breast
1. Leisel Jones, Australia
2. Leiston Pickett, Australia
3. Sarah Katsoulis, Australia

100 Breast
1. Leisel Jones, Australia
2. Sarah Katsoulis, Australia
3. Annamay Pierse, Canada

200 Breast
1. Annamay Pierse, Canada
2. Leisel Jones, Australia
3. Sarah Katsoulis, Australia

50 Fly
1. Marieke Guehrer, Australia
2. Yolane Kukla, Australia
3. Emily Seebohm, Australia

100 Fly
1. Francesca Halsall, England
2. Alicia Coutts, Australia
3. Felicity Galvez, Australia

200 Fly
1. Jessicah Schipper, Australia
2. Ellen Gandy, England
3. Samantha Hamill, Australia

200 IM
1. Emily Seebohm, Australia
2. Hannah Miley, Scotland
3. Julia Wilkinson, Canada

400 IM
1. Hannah Miley, Scotland
2. Samantha Hamill, Australia
3. Natalie Wiegersma, New Zealand

4x100 Free Relay
1. Australia
2. England
3. Canada

4x200 Free Relay
1. Australia
2. England
3. New Zealand

4x100 Medley Relay
1. Australia
2. England
3. Canada

Libby's Back

2010-09-04T21:00:00.004-04:00

Unless you have been living under a rock for the past three days, you know that Libby Trickett announced on Wednesday that she is coming back to swimming after a brief retirement in hopes of making her third Olympic team in 2012. This is arguably the best news out of the swimming world in some time. Not only is this a major boost to Australia's hopes headed into London, but it also is an obvious bonus to have Trickett in the sport. The always-smiling sprint superstar has been well-missed this season.

I remember when Trickett, then Libby Lenton, won five golds at the World Championships in 2007, becoming arguably the best female sprinter in the world. Two days later, Trickett took on Michael Phelps in a mixed freestyle relay at the Duel in the Pool in Sydney, becoming the first woman in history to break 53 seconds in the 100 free, posting a 52.99. That time never became the world record, but Lenton returned under her married name one year later to set the record straight, posting a time of 52.88 at the Australian Olympic Trials.

At the Games in Beijing, Trickett won gold in the 100 fly early in the meet, but she came very close to missing the final of her signature 100 free. Four years after coming into the Games as the world record-holder but finishing ninth, only a DQ from top qualifier Pang Jiaying could keep history from repeating itself. Trickett took the final out hard from lane eight, only to be caught by Germany's Britta Steffen in the closing strokes, and Steffen out-touched Trickett by 0.04 to take the gold, the world record still standing. Despite this, Trickett had finally won an Olympic medal in the 100 free, and she had a big smile on her face as she congratulated Steffen. Perhaps not the smile as when she broke the world record above, but she still kept her grace in defeat. Trickett would later finish fourth in the 50 free, in which she held the world record both coming into the Olympics and leaving it, while she took two relay medals: gold in the medley and bronze in the 4x100 free.

One year later, Trickett found herself left behind as Steffen took advantage of the full polyurethane suits to crush the world records in both the 50 and 100 free. Trickett stayed in the LZR Racer suit she wore in Beijing, and while she did manage to beat her 52.88 in the suit, she could only manage a bronze medal in the final, nearly a second behind Steffen's world record of 52.07. Despite an obviously disappointing performance, Trickett once again had her signature smile on her race seconds after touching, happy for Steffen's outstanding performance. However, for the first time since 2003, Trickett walked away from a major competition with no gold medals, as her two relay teams both came up short as well (bronze in the 4x100 free and silver in the 4x100 medley).

A month after Worlds, Trickett announced she would take an extended break from the sport before deciding her future. The suit controversy had worn her down, many believed, and she no longer had the desire to chase untouchable records, and she didn't believe her one final major goal could justify three more years in the sport. As the months rolled on, it became painfully obvious that Trickett would not be returning to the sport for the season and quite possibly retire altogether. And then came the night of December 13, a Sunday, Monday morning in Australia. The headline: "Libby Trickett Expected to Retire Tomorrow."

2010 began. Australia dearly missed Trickett. The 100 free at Australian Trials proved a list of things that could go wrong with Australia's sprint corps. Their sprint relay could not approach the Americans at Pan Pacs, after defeating them by two seconds the year before. In the hands of a backstroker and a 14-year-old girl, the women's sprinting squad lacked the star power of years before. Trickett remained on deck as a sports reporter and post-race interviewer through Pan Pacs, but her bubbly excited approach to the sport was nowhere to be found in the water.

Wednesday, September 1. It's been a busy day for me. I haven't been on the Internet. I come home from a tiring day of school and swimming. I see the new headline. She's back. Yes!

Her eight-and-a-half month break refreshed Trickett. Being on the pool deck but not in it, she realized she missed the competition and even smell of chlorine, and she got the swimming itch. After Pan Pacs, she knew she was ready to come back. She is ready to chase her one major goal: Olympic gold in the 100 free.

Trickett may not be eligible to qualify for next year's World Championships (which Craig Lord can explain better than myself, here and here), but the sport is definitely better than it was one week ago. Trickett is a great person, swimmer, and role model, and the sport has one of the greatest and most excitable talents back in the water. The road to London will be an exciting one, and look for some outstanding performances from Trickett along the way. Whatever happens, she will always have that amazing smile on her face, no matter the result.

August Swimmers of the Month

2010-08-31T19:54:00.003-04:00

The month of August featured three of the highest profile meets of 2010: U.S. Nationals, the European Championships, and the Pan Pacific Championships. So for August, Swimmers of the Month will correspond to the top swimmers from each region at their respective championship meets. I will also give awards for the top race of each competition, both men and women.

European Championships
Female Performer: Katinka Hosszu, Hungary
Won four medals at the European Champs, three gold and one silver, and moved to second in the world in two events (200 fly, 200 IM)

Female Performance: Hannah Miley, Great Britain – 400 IM (4:33.09)
Defeated World Champ Hosszu with the fastest time in the world by a second

Male Performer: Camille Lacourt, France
Came up just short of world records in the 50 (24.07) and 100 back (52.11)

Male Performance: Camille Lacourt, France – 100 Back (52.11)
Status as an Olympic event gives the 100 the edge over the shorter race

Pan Pacific Championships
Pac Rim Female Performer: Emily Seebohm, Australia
Won six medals, two gold in the 100 back and 200 IM, as well as four relays

American Female Performer: Rebecca Soni, USA
Posted world-dominating times in the 100 and 200 breast for wins, as well as winning gold in the medley relay and the B-final in the 50 breast

Female Performance: Rebecca Soni, USA – 100 Breast (1:04.93)
Equaled the third-fastest performance in history, becoming the first woman to swim sub-1:05 in textile

Pan Rim Male Performer: Kosuke Kitajima, Japan
Posted textile best and world best times to win the 100 (59.35, 59.04 in prelims) and 200 (2:08.36)

American Male Performer: Ryan Lochte, USA
Won six gold medals at the meet and posted world best times in four individual events: 200 free (1:45.30), 400 IM (4:07.59), 200 back (1:54.12), and 200 IM (1:54.43)

Male Performance: Ryan Lochte, USA – 200 IM (1:54.43)
Capped off an outstanding meet with a near-world record in this event

Special Awards
Perseverance Award: TIE – Katie Hoff, USA and Kate Ziegler, USA
Both fought back from disappointing Olympics and terrible 2009s to make a splash and set themselves up well for 2011 Worlds - Hoff with her eye-watering victory in the 400 free at Nationals, while Ziegler suddenly bouncing back to her old self when she pulled away from the field in the 800 free at Pan Pacs

Relay Performance: France (Camille Lacourt, Hugues Duboscq, Fred Bousquet, Fabien Gilot) - Men’s 400 Medley Relay at European Champs (3:31.32)
Put together a dominant performance with all outstanding splits to beat the top American time by more than a second

Favorite Swim: Nathan Adrian, USA – Men’s 100 Free at Pan Pacs (48.15)
Got it done and proved he is the best sprinter in the world. Amazing.

Junior Pan Pacs finished up yesterday in Maui. Check out full results as well as on-demand finals video at Swimnetwork.com.

Swimming World.com re-launched just a few hours ago, taking on the layout of what has all summer been Swimming World TV. The new site is much better organized and makes specific pages much easier to find and interconnected. Reaction Time will eventually disappear to be replaced by the powerful new Disqus comment system, which you can log in through social networking accounts such as Facebook and Twitter. Still some work to be done, which Swimming World CEO Brent Rutemiller outlines in his column in the September issue of the Magazine. Highly recommend checking it out; the site will continue to be the best source for any swimming news and reports from across the world.

Past Pan Pacs

2010-08-22T19:39:00.003-04:00

For the top American swimmers, the swim season has come to an end. Nationals is complete, Pan Pacs is complete, and the World Championship rosters for both short course and long course are unofficially set. Ryan Lochte has surpassed Michael Phelps as the best swimmer in the world (for the time being), while Rebecca Soni has emerged as the most dominant female swimmer in the world, untouchable in both Olympic breaststroke events. Missy Franklin has officially arrived on the world stage, while Amanda Beard has returned once again and has made another Worlds team, seven years after her last appearance at such a meet. Jason Lezak has completed his tenth year on the National "A" team after missing last year, while Chad LaTourette has emerged as the new Larsen Jensen/Erik Vendt. Internationally, Emily Seebohm has been called the next Natalie Coughlin (who is back as well), while Camile Lacourt has dominated the men's sprint backstrokes all year. Australia and France have each seen young superstars jump on to the world stage, Yolane Kukla and Yannick Agnel, respectively. Kosuke Kitajima continues to prove why he is the best breaststroker in history.

Starting on the pool deck at the Mecklenburg Aquatic Center in May, I watched the entire season unfold and attempted to predict and analyze it. I have reported on every Grand Prix meet this year for Swimming World and become the biggest Swim Geek known to man. Swimming has been my life this summer, obvious from the 41 blogs I have posted this month alone. I hope this will continue, on pool decks around the country (eventually) and from my room and laptop.

Tomorrow morning, I enter my junior year of high school. The entire cycle starts all over for me, as it soon will for the nation's top swimmers. I am THE Swim Geek, and I will remain involved with the sport big time, particularly through my Twitter and Facebook pages. But for now, this blog will be dormant. I will post predictions and some analysis from meets around the world and continue my virtual World Championships for 2010, but for now, this summer's blogging season has come to an end. (Hopefully,) see you on deck!

Pan Pacs: Day 5

2010-08-22T11:36:00.002-04:00

The pool competition at the Pan Pacific Championships in Irvine is complete. Final prediction contest scores for the pool and the unofficial World Championships teams (Short Course 2010 and Long Course 2011) are complete. The Open Water 10k for Pan Pacs begins in under a half hour in Long Beach, and you can watch it live on Swimnetwork.com and follow tweets from Steve Munatones and/or USA Swimming.

Post-pool competition official prediction contest scores. And the winner is...

1. David "The Swim Geek" Rieder 336
2. Tom 316
3. Jerry 315
4. John 313
5. Matt 292
6. Priyant 275
7. G. John 268
8. The Viking 262
9. Braden 261
10. Katie 218

Unofficial world champs team(s)(relay swimmers include those in individual events):

Women:
50 Free - Jessica Hardy, Amanda Weir
100 Free - Natalie Coughlin, Dana Vollmer
4x100 Free Relay - Jessica Hardy, Amanda Weir, Kara Lynn Joyce, Missy Franklin
200 Free - Allison Schmitt, Dana Vollmer
4x200 Free Relay - Morgan Scroggy, Katie Hoff, Dagny Knutson, Jasmine Tosky
400 Free - Chloe Sutton, Katie Hoff
800 Free - Kate Ziegler, Chloe Sutton
100 Back - Natalie Coughlin, Liz Pelton
200 Back - Elizabeth Beisel, Missy Franklin
100 Breast - Rebecca Soni, Amanda Beard
200 Breast - Rebecca Soni, Amanda Beard
100 Fly - Christine Magnuson, Dana Vollmer
200 Fly - Teresa Crippen, Kathleen Hersey
200 IM - Ariana Kukors, Caitlin Leverenz
400 IM - Elizabeth Beisel, Caitlin Leverenz

Men:
50 Free - Nathan Adrian, Cullen Jones
100 Free - Nathan Adrian, Jason Lezak
4x100 Free Relay - (Michael Phelps,) Garrett Weber-Gale, Ryan Lochte, Dave Walters, Scot Robison
200 Free - Ryan Lochte, Michael Phelps
4x200 Free Relay - Peter Vanderkaay, Ricky Berens, Conor Dwyer, Dave Walters
400 Free - Peter Vanderkaay, Charlie Houchin
1,500 Free - Chad LaTourette, Peter Vanderkaay
100 Back - Aaron Peirsol, David Plummer
200 Back - Ryan Lochte, Tyler Clary
100 Breast - Mark Gangloff, Mike Alexandrov
200 Breast - Eric Shanteau, Scott Spann
100 Fly - Michael Phelps, Tyler McGill
200 Fly - Michael Phelps, Tyler Clary
200 IM - Ryan Lochte, Michael Phelps
400 IM - Ryan Lochte, Tyler Clary

Pan Pacs: Day 4

2010-08-21T20:32:00.004-04:00

The final pool session of Pan Pacs is about to get underway from the Woollett Aquatic Center in Irvine. The Americans have dominated all seven sessions of the meet thus far, and nothing should change in the final one. The big storyline going into tonight: world records. Ryan Lochte has a strong chance in the men's 200 IM, as does Rebecca Soni in the women's 200 breast. John Lohn put up a notebook on Swimming World.com with some nice thoughts headed into tonight.

Final predictions:

Men's 800 Free

1. Ryan Cochrane

2. Chad LaTourette

3. Takeshi Matsuda

Women's 200 IM

1. Ariana Kukors

2. Emily Seebohm

3. Caitlin Leverenz

Men's 200 IM

1. Ryan Lochte

2. Tyler Clary

3. Thiago Pereira

Women's 50 Free

1. Jessica Hardy

2. Yolane Kukla

3. Amanda Weir

Men's 50 Free

1. Cesar Cielo

2. Nathan Adrian

3. Gideon Louw

Women's 200 Breast

1. Rebecca Soni

2. Leisel Jones

3. Amanda Beard

Men's 200 Breast

1. Kosuke Kitajima

2. Eric Shanteau

3. Brenton Rickard

Women's 1,500 Free

1. Kate Ziegler

2. Melissa Gorman

3. Kristel Kobrich

Women's 4x100 Medley Relay

1. United States (Coughlin, Soni, Vollmer, Hardy)

2. Australia (Seebohm, Jones, Coutts, Kukla)

3. Japan (Terakawa, Suzuki, Kato, Ueda)

Men's 4x100 Medley Relay

1. United States (Peirsol, Gangloff, Phelps, Adrian)

2. Japan (Koga, Kitajima, Kishida, Fujii)

3. Australia (Delaney, Sprenger, Huegill, Richardson)

Official prediction contest results headed into the final night of pool racing:

1. David "The Swim Geek" Rieder 264
2. John 251
3. Jerry 245
4. Matt 241
5. Tom 231
6. The Viking 213
7. G. John 196
8. Braden 189
9. Priyant 171
10. Katie 162

This should be the world champs team so far:

Women

100 Free - Natalie Coughlin, Dana Vollmer

200 Free - Allison Schmitt, Dana Vollmer

400 Free - Chloe Sutton, Katie Hoff

800 Free - Kate Ziegler, Chloe Sutton

100 Back - Natalie Coughlin, Liz Pelton

200 Back - Elizabeth Beisel, Missy Franklin

100 Breast - Rebecca Soni, Amanda Beard

100 Fly - Christine Magnuson, Dana Vollmer

200 Fly - Teresa Crippen, Kathleen Hersey

400 IM - Elizabeth Beisel, Caitlin Leverenz

Men

100 Free - Nathan Adrian, Jason Lezak

200 Free - Ryan Lochte, Michael Phelps

400 Free - Peter Vanderkaay, Charlie Houchin

1,500 Free - Chad LaTourette, Peter Vanderkaay

100 Back - Aaron Peirsol, David Plummer

200 Back - Ryan Lochte, Tyler Clary

100 Breast - Mark Gangloff, Mike Alexandrov

100 Fly - Michael Phelps, Tyler McGill

200 Fly - Michael Phelps, Tyler Clary

400 IM - Ryan Lochte, Tyler Clary

Pan Pacs: Day 3

2010-08-20T15:30:00.003-04:00

The second night of finals and third morning of prelims both featured outstanding American performances. Out of the ten events last night, Americans won seven, including all but one of the Olympic events contested. Nathan Adrian and Rebecca Soni proved themselves against their toughest rivals on the international stage, while Ryan Lochte continued to show why he is the best swimmer in the world today. Elizabeth Beisel re-bounded from a disappointing Nationals to dominate the women's 400 IM. Natalie Coughlin continued her comeback with her first international victory in two years, while Mark Gangloff showed he can hang on through a full 100 breast, winning a bronze medal.

Americans proceeded to take the top qualifying time in six out of this morning's eight events, with 1-2 finishes in four of them. Many swimmers who didn't swim up to their potential at Nationals stepped up big time. For example, Liz Pelton posted a personal-best time of 2:07.48 in the 200 back, four seconds quicker than her Nationals performance where she took fourth. Already on the World Champs team in the 100 back (by 0.01), Pelton needs to step up again this evening to try and make the team for Shanghai, where she could be a medal contender. She and Elizabeth Beisel could finish 1-2 in the event, after posting the only two sub-2:08 swims this morning.

In the men's 200 back, Aaron Peirsol missed another A-final, taking third but behind Ryan Lochte and Tyler Clary. All beat their times from Nationals, but Clary will go for medals in the finals rather than the man who has won four world titles, two Olympic titles, and two Pan Pacs titles, and holds the world record. Peirsol still has a chance to make the Worlds team for next year, but Clary continues his outstanding meet, continually dropping large amounts of time from Nationals. After a poor NCAA meet in which he failed to defend his 200 back title and added significant time in all of his events, Clary's summer training with Jon Urbanchek at FAST has been hugely successful. Already on the World Champs team in the 200 fly and the 400 IM, don't be surprised if he makes two more events. In addition to the 200 back, he has a chance to knock out Phelps from the 200 IM tomorrow.

Michael Phelps has put his stamp on the men's 100 fly over the past three years. However, since the retirement of Ian Crocker, the Americans have struggled to find a second swimmer capable of medaling on the world stage. Tyler McGill made finals at Worlds last summer, finishing seventh and dipping under 51 in prelims (in a Jaked), but he did not have a stellar NCAA season, and it looked feasible for the U.S. to not have a second swimmer in the Pan Pacs finals. This morning in Irvine, Phelps qualified first in an easy 51.48, while McGill dropped more than a half second from his Nationals' peformance of 52.20 to finish second in 51.69. Especially with Olympic bronze medalist Andrew Lauterstein missing the final (due to the two-per-country rule), McGill could win his first international individual medal in the final. This means making the jump to the biggest stage, just two years out from 2012.

Only Phelps and McGill broke 52 in prelims, with Japan's Takuro Fujii third in 52.20 and Australia's Geoff Huegill fourth in 52.21. 31-year-old Huegill finished just a quarter second off his personal best time set ten years ago. At the 2000 Sydney Olympics, he set an Olympic record of 51.96 in the semi-finals, before finishing third in the finals, although no one beat his semi-final time. After retiring in 2004, he returned in late 2008 and made the Australian team in the 50 fly at Nationals. In that event on Wednesday, he posted a first-place time of 23.27, a personal best time, ahead of his then-world record of 23.44 from 2001. In the finals, he ended up faltering to fourth, but he returned to be his country's top man in the 100 fly. After finishing fifth at their Nationals, he did not have a National team spot in the event, but he now has a strong chance to return to an Olympic event on the Aussie team. Only continued success in the longer 100 fly will give Huegill a shot as his third Olympics in 2012.

Updates finals predictions (which DO NOT COUNT in the prediction contest):

Women's 400 Free

1. Allison Schmitt

2. Chloe Sutton

3. Katie Goldman

Men's 400 Free

1. Zhang Lin

2. Park Tae Hwan

3. Peter Vanderkaay

Women's 100 Fly

1. Dana Vollmer

2. Christine Magnuson

3. Yolane Kukla

Men's 100 Fly

1. Michael Phelps

2. Geoff Huegill

3. Tyler McGill

Women's 200 Back

1. Elizabeth Beisel

2. Liz Pelton

3. Belinda Hocking

Men's 200 Back

1. Ryan Lochte

2. Ryosuke Irie

3. Tyler Clary

Women's 50 Breast

1. Jessica Hardy

2. Leisel Jones

3. Leiston Pickett

Men's 50 Breast

1. Felipe Silva

2. Kosuke Kitajima

3. Mark Gangloff

Women's 4x100 Free Relay

1. USA (Coughlin, Hardy, Weir, Vollmer)

2. Australia (Seebohm, Coutts, Galvez, Kukla)

3. Canada (Poon, Morningstar, Samur, Wilkinson)

Men's 4x100 Free Relay

1. USA (Phelps, Lochte, Adrian, Lezak)

2. Australia (Sullivan, Magnussen, Prosser, Richardson)

3. Brazil (Cielo, Oliveira, Rodrigues, Santos)

Not too many changes to the official prediction scores after day 2. But look who's in the lead!

1. David "The Swim Geek" Rieder 169
2. Jerry 167
3. Matt 162
4. John 157
4. Tom 157
6. G. John 149
7. Shawn 145
8. Braden 125
9. Priyant 115
10. Katie 101

I will NOT be able to post unofficial scores tonight, so scores will be available before prelims tomorrow morning.

Based on the qualifying procedures, this should be the line-up for World Champs next year in the individual Olympic events contested thus far.

Women:
100 Free - Natalie Coughlin, Dana Vollmer

200 Free - Allison Schmitt, Dana Vollmer
800 Free - Kate Ziegler, Chloe Sutton

100 Back - Natalie Coughlin, Liz Pelton
100 Breast - Rebecca Soni, Amanda Beard

200 Fly - Teresa Crippen, Kathleen Hersey

400 IM - Elizabeth Beisel, Caitlin Leverenz

Men:
100 Free - Nathan Adrian, Jason Lezak

200 Free - Ryan Lochte, Michael Phelps
1,500 Free - Chad LaTourette, Peter Vanderkaay
100 Back - Aaron Peirsol, David Plummer

100 Breast - Mark Gangloff, Mike Alexandrov
200 Fly - Michael Phelps, Tyler Clary

400 IM - Ryan Lochte, Tyler Clary

Pan Pacs: Day 2

2010-08-19T19:55:00.002-04:00

Garrett McCaffrey described this morning's prelims session as "a pretty exciting prelim session, as prelim sessions go." More fast racing in hopes of earning a finals spot. Here is Swimming World's written recap of the session, as well as a video recap and finals preview. A lot of phenomenal swims by Americans and foreigners alike, but the men's 400 IM captured most of the excitement this morning.

In that 400 IM, Michael Phelps would compete in his first race at the distance since the Beijing Olympics. Many highly anticipated his return. However, things did not go Phelps' way. In the first heat, teammates Ryan Lochte and Tyler Clary posted the two fastest times in the world in the event, 4:08.77 and 4:09.20. Phelps could only muster a 4:15.38, leaving him fourth overall (Brazil's Thiago Pereira posted a 4:15.35), but third-best American and out of the championship final. Phelps went onto scratch the B-final to focus on swimming the 4x200 free relay tonight, allowing Robert Margalis a chance to swim a second time. Before the race, Swimnetwork's Mike Gustafson talked up the prospects for the Phelps-Lochte race in the final, while Casey Barrett of Swimnetwork and John Lohn of Swimming World both wrote columns about Phelps' failure to final and attempted to explain the circumstances.

On the other side of the coin, awesome swims from both Lochte and Clary. Lochte dropped more than a second from his Nationals swim (4:09.98), looking fairly easy in his swim, while Clary demolished his 4:14.12 at Nationals, where he completely fell apart the last 150. Should be an awesome finals race tonight, with possibly Pereira challenging the Americans.

After the prelim race Phelps spoke to the media, once again talking about his poor physical shape and the amount of pain the race caused.

In the ladies' 400 IM, Elizabeth Beisel dropped the hammer. After finishing fourth at Nationals in 4:39.08, Beisel demolished that time with a 4:34.04 in prelims. (She must have known I picked her to win!) Going into finals, she sits more then five seconds ahead of fellow American Caitlin Leverenz, with the pair a good bet to finish 1-2 in the finale. Look for another great swim from Beisel tonight, possibly near her personal-best time of 4:32.87 (from Olympic Trials), as well as in tomorrow's 200 back.

I screwed up the prediction scores big time yesterday. After being awake since 5am, I calculated the scores at midnight (eastern). For some reason, if someone picked Dana Vollmer or Allison Schmitt to win the 200 free, they got full points. Scores have been adjusted.

1. Jerry 84

2. Matt 81

3. Me 76

3. Tom 76

5. G. John 71

6. John 68

7. Priyant 67

8. Shawn 64

9. Braden 55

10. Katie 43

Some updated predictions for tonight's finals:

Women's 100 Free

1. Dana Vollmer

2. Natalie Coughlin

3. Yolane Kukla

Men's 100 Free

1. Nathan Adrian

2. Cesar Cielo

3. Brent Hayden

Women's 100 Breast

1. Rebecca Soni

2. Leisel Jones

3. Satomi Suzuki

Men's 100 Breast

1. Kosuke Kitajima

2. Ryo Tateishi

3. Mark Gangloff

Women's 400 IM

1. Elizabeth Beisel

2. Caitlin Leverenz

3. Samantha Hamill

Men's 400 IM

1. Ryan Lochte

2. Tyler Clary

3. Thiago Pereira

Women's 4x200 Free Relay

1. USA (Vollmer, Scroggy, Hoff, Schmitt)

2. Australia (Evans, Barratt, Nay, Palmer)

3. Canada (Wilkinson, Samur, Cheverton, Jardin)

Men's 4x200 Free Relay

1. USA (Phelps, Vanderkaay, Berens, Lochte)

2. Australia (Ffrost, D'Orsogna, Monk, Fraser-Holmes)

3. Japan (Matsuda, Okimura, Uchida, Kobori)

Finals get underway at 6pm (pacific). Once again, live video will be available at Swimnetwork.com. Omega Timing has live results and full results. Also keep an eye on my Twitter and Facebook pages for updates throughout the meet. In addition, Swimming World TV has TONS of video interviews and recaps from the meet, highly recommend checking it out.

Pan Pacs: Kate Ziegler, Aaron Peirsol, and Home Pool Advantage

2010-08-19T12:51:00.001-04:00

One night of awesome racing at the Pan Pacs is complete. Big highlights for the Americans and the Aussies, which you can hear all about on Swimming World TV's recap or read about on Swimming World.com. I wanted to highlight a few top storylines from last night's finals.

Kate Ziegler is back. She put together an 8:21.59 for an easy victory, and she negative split the race, according to her for the first time ever. After not being ranked anywhere near the top in the world before last year, Ziegler finds herself second in the world and well ahead of the 8:23.37 posted by World Champ Lotte Friis at the European Championships. Moreover, it is her second best time EVER, behind the 8:18.52 she won World Champs in in 2007. After only two months under her new coach Jon Urbanchek, she is suddenly dominating the way she did back in 2007 and before. Watching her shift into overdrive on the final 50 and leave the field behind brings back memories of her big victory over Laure Manaudou in the 800 free at the Worlds in 2007. She is back and ready to contend for the big stage once again.

Aaron Peirsol had a stroke of luck yesterday. Ryan Lochte scratched the 100 back after qualifying second, originally leaving Peirsol the fourth qualifier and third American, so out of the A-final. With the new opportunity, Peirsol reminded everyone why he has never lost an international final in the event. (He has missed finals twice and lost Nationals before, such as two weeks ago.) Winning in 53.31, he dominated the field like he so often does. But he has more than Ryan Lochte to thank for what happened last night.

David Plummer (A-final) and Nick Thoman (B-final) both led their respective final heats at the 50. Both were on track to post times faster than Peirsol's. Both crashed into the lane line and practically stopped. Peirsol, meanwhile, who swam in the Woollett Aquatic Center for many years as an age grouper, swam straight down the middle to victory. But if not for that lane line, he would not be representing the U.S. in the 100 back at Worlds next year, despite winning three of the last four world titles in the event. Talk about home pool advantage!

Gonna be another exciting day of racing today in Irvine, which gets underway in a few short minutes with prelims, live on Swimnetwork.com. The racing will be interesting among the international teams, as well as between the Americans fighting for World Championships spots. Caitlin Leverenz, Ariana Kukors, and Elizabeth Beisel will duel for finals spots and eventually World Champs spots in the women's 400 IM, as will Mike Alexandrov, Mark Gangloff, Eric Shanteau, and possibly Scott Spann in the men's 100 breast.

Today will also mark the return of Michael Phelps to the 400 IM, the event in which he set a world record of 4:03.84 in Beijing. After a dominating 1:45.30 200 free win last night and sweeping the IMs at Nationals with the top times in the world in both, Ryan Lochte is the clear favorite to win, while Phelps will duel with Tyler Clary to claim a spot in the A-final. Clary dropped a second and a half from Nationals in his 200 fly prelim yesterday, posting a fast 1:55.72. If he makes the final, Phelps has to hold off Thiago Pereira just to get the silver. It will be two tough battles for Phelps, especially considering his poor physical shape, evidenced by his mediocre 1:54.11 200 fly yesterday.

Meanwhile, the 2011 U.S. Long Course World Championships team is now set in some event. The following swimmers have qualified to represent Team USA next summer in Shanghai. The two swimmers in each event come from combining FINALS results from Nationals and Pan Pacs.

Women:

200 Free - Allison Schmitt, Dana Vollmer

800 Free - Kate Ziegler, Chloe Sutton

100 Back - Natalie Coughlin, Liz Pelton

200 Fly - Teresa Crippen, Kathleen Hersey

Men:

200 Free - Ryan Lochte, Michael Phelps

1,500 Free - Chad LaTourette, Peter Vanderkaay

100 Back - Aaron Peirsol, David Plummer

200 Fly - Michael Phelps, Tyler Clary

Pan Pacs: Day 1

2010-08-18T19:31:00.007-04:00

The first morning of prelims featured some interesting racing, but the big topic of discussion was the two swimmers per country rule. Only two can make finals from one country, which becomes an issue when the U.S. goes 1-2-3-8 in the women's 200 free. On top of that, only one other swimmer can make the B-final, so eighth-ranked Katie Hoff doesn't get a second swim in the event. Because I don't want to be repetitive and they did such a good job, you can listen to Garrett McCaffrey and Jeff Comming's prelim recap/finals preview. Swimming World TV is the place to go for any and all media coverage of the meet; they already got 14 athlete interviews this morning, with much more to come.

However, Garrett and Jeff forgot to talk about the men's 100 back, so I'll do it now. David Plummer proved every single swimming analyst wrong, and he did have more in the tank from his awesome swim at Nationals. He dropped his 53.60 down to 53.33, just one one-hundredth off of Aaron Peirsol's meet record of 53.32 from 2006. Peirsol had a big scare for finals, finishing fourth and third-best American, but Ryan Lochte's scratch puts Peirsol in the A-final and Thoman in the B-final, and both have chances to redeem themselves from poor swims at U.S. Nationals (possibly to make next year's Worlds team). Team USA could go 1-2 in the event, but Australia's Ashley Delaney swam a fast 53.78 in prelims, and the Japanese pair of Ryosuke Irie and Junya Koga, the third and fourth-fastest all time performers all-time (behind Peirsol and Camille Lacourt), are looming. It will be a close one. Thoman's B-final swim, however, won't be close. He will dominate the field and try to get close to or surpass the winning time in the A-final, in an attempt to make the Worlds team. He has a lot left in the tank after posting a 53.96 in prelims today.

Meanwhile, Lochte's 100 back show's us this meet's theme: "Hurricane Ryan," as Craig Lord put it. Lochte will swim as many races as he can and probably do well in all of them. He put down the top 200 free time (1:46.10) maybe 20 minutes before his 53.68 second-place finish in the 100 back. For those of you keeping track, that's not far off his best time ever, 53.37 from Olympic Trials (in a LZR). Look for a string of amazing performances this week, maybe even a world record.

I will be running a Swimming World virtual meet this week, with the top eight times from combining European Champs and Pan Pacs. This will lead into the 2010 Virtual World Championships, which will also include Commonwealth Games (and possibly Asian Games). I will try to have each night's virtual results on Swimming World a half hour after the swimming finishes.

Updated Predictions:

Women's 50 Fly

1. Marieke Guehrer

2. Emily Seebohm

3. Jessica Hardy

Men's 50 Fly

1. Geoff Huegill

2. Roland Schoeman

3. Cesar Cielo

Women's 200 Free

1. Allison Schmitt

2. Morgan Scroggy

3. Blair Evans

Men's 200 Free

1. Ryan Lochte

2. Peter Vanderkaay

3. Park Tae Hwan

Women's 100 Back

1. Emily Seebohm

2. Natalie Coughlin

3. Aya Terakawa

Men's 100 Back

1. Aaron Peirsol

2. David Plummer

3. Junya Koga

Women's 200 Fly

1. Teresa Crippen

2. Jessicah Schipper

3. Kathleen Hersey

Men's 200 Fly

1. Michael Phelps

2. Nick D'arcy

3. Takeshi Matsuda

Women's 800 Free

1. Katie Goldman

2. Chloe Sutton

3. Kate Ziegler

Men's 1,500 Free

1. Ryan Cochrane

2. Chad LaTourette

3. Ous Mellouli

Finals begin tonight at 6pm pacific (9pm eastern). You can watch live on Universal Sports (TV and internet) and Swimnetwork.com. At Omega Timing you can follow live results and find full results after each event. Additionally, both Chris DFLSantis and myself will be posting some commentary on Facebook (and Twitter for me) during the competition. Less than one hour to go!