London 2012: Pre-Day One

We are less than a week away from the opening of the Games of the Thirtieth Olympiad in London, and mere hours after the Opening Ceremony, action gets underway across the street at the Aquatic Center. After years of buildup, the Games have arrived. I won’t post any formal preview blog, mostly because I’d be repeating much of my content from U.S. Olympic Trials a few weeks ago. If you venture over here to read my thoughts, you know who the contenders to win medals are as you scoff at the predictions of the mainstream media who hasn’t followed swimming nearly as much as you – even if their picks happen to come true. I do, though, want to share a few thoughts headed into the first few days of Olympic action.

As the swimming finals kick off on Saturday night, July 28, we will see the first relay event in the women’s 400 free. Most have picked the Dutch foursome of Ranomi Kromowidjojo, Femke Heemskerk, Inge Dekker, and Marleen Veldhuis to repeat their Olympic gold after adding world titles in the event the past two years. The Americans, who failed to medal at the 2009 World Championships, have put together a deep bunch led by Trials winner Jessica Hardy, while Australia, which did not medal at Worlds last year, has surged behind the efforts of Cate Campbell, Melanie Schlanger, and Olympic silver medalist Libby Trickett.

Australia could have major lineup decisions in this event after Commonwealth champion Alicia Coutts asked to remove herself from contention for the relay prelims. That leaves Yolane Kukla and Brittany Elmslie as the others qualified for preliminary action along with Trickett, while backstroker Emily Seebohm could see action here as well. Australia needs big performances from its leaders, no sure thing after disappointing Beijing swims from Campbell. Trickett failed to break 54 at Trials, but she won a world title in the 100 free back in 2007 in 53.40; such form would provide a major boost for the Aussies, and we could see her on the leadoff or anchor if coaches think she can approach her old form.

The Americans, though, have some more options. Hardy and Missy Franklin will represent the U.S. in the individual event, probably assuring them byes from the prelims. Allison Schmitt, meanwhile, starts off her tough program in this relay. An under-aggressive first 50 at Trials left her in last place playing catch-up, but she did manage a third-place finish. Just three weeks earlier, though, Schmitt had posted a 53.94, faster than Hardy’s winning time of 53.96. I expect Schmitt to swim on the finals relay.

Natalie Coughlin and Dana Vollmer tied for seventh at Worlds last year, each posting swims of 54.05, but they only managed sixth and seventh-place finishes at Trials, respectively. After looking at the meet’s results a bit more closely, you can see overall disappointing performances from the Cal-trained women. Coughlin, Vollmer, and Caitlin Leverenz all swam slower than I expected going into the meet, especially after the first day. I think we will see better in London. Despite Vollmer not technically qualifying for this relay, Teri McKeever knows she can swim far better, and Vollmer could replace Schmitt on the prelims lineup.

All this considered, I can’t tell how the U.S. women will approach this relay. I expect to see Hardy swim either first or second, and I am fairly confident Franklin will anchor this relay. Remember, she anchored the medley relay last year in 52.7 less than an hour after setting an American record in the 200 back. Schmitt looks like a good option for the third leg, since her back half can set up Franklin really well, and one of Coughlin, Vollmer, Amanda Weir, and Lia Neal will swim first or second in the spot opposite Hardy. I expect a very tight race, and I will pick the Dutch to win, but none of the three favorites has margin for error, with Germany looming as well.

Who from this tight field at Olympic Trials will find their way onto the finals relay in London?

More to come on the preview front over the next couple days with some individual action. I'll write about a handful of events in which what transpired at U.S. Trials really had bearing on the set-up of this race headed into London.

Final Thoughts from the 2012 U.S. Olympic Trials

I got home from the Olympic Trials five days ago, and I would love to go back. What a week in Omaha! For eight straight nights, 14,000 people watched some seriously epic racing, and millions more caught the action live on NBC. While no one really blew the doors off timewise, I think many coaches kept 2008 in the back of their mind. After nine world records four years ago in Omaha, many Americans fell somewhat flat at the Olympics, with Michael Phelps and Rebecca Soni the major exceptions. This time, analysts buzzed all week that many of the biggest names hedged their bets in Omaha, mostly successfully, with the big goals a month down the road.

You should have seen my analysis blogs, eight days worth of them. Right now, though, I want to share some thoughts on my experience from the stands in Omaha. I first walked into the CenturyLink Center at 10:15am on Friday morning, June 29. From the minute I first laid eyes on the pool in the middle of the arena, WOW! Two hours later, I had down the lay of this facility. I found the coaches and athletes section by the blocks, where I watched local swimmer Zach Lierley race in the 200 back with his coach and teammates.

Over the course of that day, I learned where to go to find people. The Hilton across the street from the CenturyLink Center, connected via Skybridge, proved to be a hotbed for activity in the middle of the afternoon and after finals. Something was always happening in that hotel. At 4:00 every afternoon, I tried to make my way to the end of the Skybridge in the CenturyLink Center to see athletes on their way in, which proved successful. Twice, Michael Phelps walked up, and his National Guard escort helped him to proceed pass the screaming gaggle of fans without a peep.

Then, finals. Wow. If prelims were a pumped-up swim meet, finals were an event. Lights, fireworks, and a packed house screaming their guts out. First up for me, I watched the men's 200 breast, where Scott Weltz and Clark Burckle upset favorites Eric Shanteau and Brendan Hansen. Don't believe I was there? Well, fire up those DVRs and watch the last 50 again. With about 30 meters to go in the race, the camera pans up slightly. If you look carefully, you can see a guy in a blue shirt that reads "DUKE" one seat in from the aisle and about three rows down from concourse level. Yep, I found myself on national television.

Best race I saw? Men's 200 IM, hands down. I watched the two best swimmers in the world duke it out in one of swimming's ultimate races. Never did more than a tenth separate those two at any wall. Phelps and Lochte have dominated the 200 IM so much the past eight years that two men who have ranked in the top-three in the world, Eric Shanteau and Tyler Clary, both decided against swimming the event. With third-place Conor Dwyer four seconds away, Phelps and Lochte battled back and forth to the wall, and Phelps ended up taking the touch just barely. I don't think a single member of the sold-out crowd had their butt in a seat for the last lap of that race.

After extending my trip one more day to stay for day seven, I ran into the most popular swimmer of the Trials: Ryan Lochte. On Sunday morning, I had my computer bag checked at security, but I didn't make it into the arena before people started running to outside the convention center. Could it be? Yep. Lochte, nowhere to be seen thus far, strolled out in the open on his morning off, stopping freely for autographs and pictures. And, yeah, I wanted a picture with Ryan Lochte.

Me and the best swimmer in the world the last two years, Ryan Lochte. You can guess which one is me.

I think that to say I enjoyed my three days in Omaha would be a vast understatement. After probably the best weekend of my life, I have so many people to thank. First and foremost, thanks to Jason Marsteller and Peter Bick for sharing their hospitality with me for three nights. Swimming World has been great to me for three years now, and I appreciate everything so much. I really enjoyed getting to meet John Lohn and Jeff Commings and talk swimming with them, and I even got to spend an afternoon with Brent Rutemiller at a Fitter and Faster Tour event.

Several competing swimmers and busy coaches took time out of their schedules to stop for a few words with me, and I couldn't have appreciate their time more. All the thanks to Elizabeth Beisel, Ed Moses, Katie Hoff, Andrew Gemmell, Nick Thoman, Austin Surhoff, Haley Anderson, Elliott Keefer, Ricky Berens, and plenty more. Among coaches, three Daves – Durden, Marsh, and Salo – all took time to share their thoughts with me. I finally got to meet veteran coach Alex Braunfeld, a Facebook friend I've had some nice conversations with over the last year. Having grown up watching the 2004 and 2008 Games, I really enjoyed getting to meet the likes of Aaron Peirsol and Ian Crocker. Having watched so many Trials and Olympics on TV, I appreciated Dan Hicks, Rowdy Gaines, and Bob Costas all sharing some time to chat during breaks in the action.

As I'm sure you can tell, I had fun in Omaha last week. Too bad the next Trials is four years away, but World Championship Trials comes next summer in Indianapolis! Hopefully I can make it to that event as well, but Indy will be hard-pressed to match the magic I witnessed for three days in Omaha. That weekend in Omaha will forever be special to me, and again thank you to everyone who I saw and talked to for taking the time. Now, on to London!

U.S. Olympic Trials: Day Eight Finals

And just like that, the Olympic Trials have wrapped up. The rest of the swimming in the CenturyLink Center will consist of Masters Nationals, not quite the rabid excitement we saw for the past eight days. Tonight, we saw the end of an era, as Dara Torres failed to make a sixth Olympic team. Jessica Hardy won the 50 free, as expected, while Kara Lynn Joyce put together one spectacular performance after a lackluster meet to finish second. Takes some serious mental toughness to pull that out after not even making the semi-finals of the 100 free. Shout-out, too, to Christine Magnuson, who, like Joyce, rebounded strongly after a rough week in the 50 free, but she ended up a disappointing third.

Meanwhile, the crowd in Omaha witnessed a fantastic race in the men's mile, while those of us at home watched about one-third of the race on NBC. Though I'm sure disappointed I didn't get to see much of the race, the race itself didn't disappoint. Chad La Tourette showed the guts I expected from him early on, but he paid the price down the stretch and faded to third. Andrew Gemmell and Connor Jaeger, meanwhile, duked it out to the last 50, when Gemmell pulled away down the stretch. Having sat right in front of Andrew Gemmell's mom for three days, I knew the Gemmell camp carried confidence into the final and into the great swim we just saw. No, those times won't medal in London, but both have the potential to go faster, as they showed with some too-fast final 50 splits, and they could definitely get into the final heat.

Meanwhile, now I must give my overall thoughts on the long week we just witnessed in Omaha. The U.S., as a whole, looks set up to go faster in the majority of events in London after many athletes prepared to peak a month down the line. In contrast, four years ago we saw nine world records in Omaha. While the suits helped, no question, athletes then found themselves swimming slower at the Olympics. After watching some lackluster times in certain events and feeling the buzz on the deck, I really feel confident about the potential that this team carries into the meet.

One big piece of news came out today involving the greatest swimmer that has ever lived. Yep, Michael Phelps pulled out of the 200 free race in London, allowing Ricky Berens to move up as an individual 200 free swimmer and Davis Tarwater to finally make his first Olympic team after so many years of close calls. Phelps felt too restricted in his potential Olympic program and felt that his body couldn't quite handle 17 swims this time around. Phelps won four times this week, for a total of 13 career Trials wins. Phelps, I believe, has firmly established that he has returned to the conversation for the best swimmer in the world. No, he still has not regained the title outright. But he beat the reigning king twice this week. Not to mention that Phelps hadn't touched in front of this man in a major race in two years. More to come across the pond, including who emerges as the final number one.

Once my disappointment of Trials being over subsides, I will be back later on this week with my thoughts on what this Trials meant to me. But let me say that it means a lot. Some of my best memories from the Olympic saga four years ago came in Omaha, and the montage of the highlights from 2008 Trials last night allowed me to relive those moments I watched from the TV. The lack of records at this meet meant that each individual swim did not leave as much of an impression, but the meet as a whole sure did. I just experienced the best weekend of my life. And really quickly, thank you to everyone I met in Omaha and everyone who took the time to talk to me. That alone meant more than anyone could possibly imagine.

U.S. Olympic Trials: Day Eight Finals Predictions

Though I am now 1000 miles away from Olympic Trials in Omaha, but we still have two more races to complete: the finals of the women's 50 free and men's 1500 free. One word describes each race that we see tonight: explosive categorizes the women's 50 free and strategic in the men's mile. Take a look at my thoughts from Omaha last night. For the last time, now, take a look at my predictions for night eight of the men's 1500.

Women's 50 Free
1. Jessica Hardy
2. Dara Torres

Men's 1500 Free
1. Chad La Tourette
2. Andrew Gemmell

Connor Jaeger aims to swim just a 1500 tonight as he goes for the Olympic team,

U.S. Olympic Trials: Day Seven Finals

Of the three finals sessions I witnessed over the course of my weekend here in Omaha, tonight's brought the smallest crowd to the CenturyLink Center. No matter; I walked out of the arena for the final time having witnessed one fantastic display of talent, work ethic, and guts that I will never forget. I met some fantastic people and enjoyed every minute of my adventure. I witnessed greatness, the likes of which the U.S. may not see again.

We started things out tonight in the women's 200 back, where consensus picks Missy Franklin and Elizabeth Beisel picked up their tickets to London in yet another event. While neither approached the kind of time I believe they are capable of, they finished off a long week in style. Shout-out, though, to Elizabeth Pelton, who took third twice this week. She will move to train with Teri McKeever at Cal next year, and McKeever has been known to help just-missed potential Olympians regain their swagger after disappointing Trials. See Coughlin, Natalie.

Like the 200 back, the men's 100 fly ended up with a very predictable finish. Michael Phelps and Tyler McGill took out the top two slots as expected but only after a very wacky race. Tim Phillips, as expected, took the race out hard, but 23.62 turned out to be a bit too hard, and he faded. In a jumble at the halfway point, Phelps found himself in sixth place, behind even Ryan Lochte. Phelps, though, did what he does best, destroying the field off the wall and pulling away along with McGill before winning by two tenths at the touch. Phelps claimed tonight to be his final race ever on American soil. If Phelps does indeed retire as he plans to do, I feel honored to have been a witness.

From there, the races turned unpredictable. Kate Ziegler bounced back from a rough 400 free to make the team in the 800, but who saw Katie Ledecky coming two months ago? Who ever thought she would break 8:20 and enter the Olympics with the second-fastest time in the world? Tonight's performance announced her to the world stage. Chloe Sutton, meanwhile, found herself back in fourth. Again, who would have picked Sutton to miss the team in the 800 at any point over the past two years? But at Olympic Trials, anything can happen, and those who handle the pressure the best find their way to the Olympics.

Katie Ledecky blew away the field from the start in the 800.

I saw one more final, the men's 50 free, another where the long-assumed favorite found himself on the outside looking in. Nathan Adrian posted the fourth-fastest time in the world in 21.68, but Cullen Jones and Anthony Ervin swam even faster. Jones came in at 21.59 for the second-fastest time in the world, just 0.21 behind Cesar Cielo. Ervin, meanwhile, moved to third in the world at 21.60, 0.20 under his best time from 12 years ago. After receiving his medal, Ervin shouted to the crowd in utter excitement, "I'm going to the Olympics!" Hard to believe that this guy stepped away from the sport disinterested a year before he could go for his second Olympic team. Even without Adrian, these guys are major medal contenders.

Anthony Ervin relishing making his second Olympic team.

The women's 50 free saw a few major statements in the semi-finals. In the first semi-final, Christine Magnuson showed that she has transformed into a pure sprinter. After falling well short of the team in her signature 100 fly, she clocked a 24.72 50 free tonight to claim lane five for tomorrow. She made a statement tonight, and she will be a strong contender to make her second team in a totally different event than her first. Jessica Hardy won the second semi-final in 24.56, while Dara Torres took second in 24.80. Torres looked strong the whole way tonight, even closing on Hardy at the end. Magnuson swam fast tonight, but Torres has more experience than anyone else at the meet. The full day of recovery time will seriously help Torres as well. Expect another bam-bam race in the final, just like in the men's race.

Tomorrow, the meet wraps up with the finals of the women's 50 and men's 1500. Expect a serious race in that mile. Favorite Chad La Tourette will start out of lane seven, but he is a serious racer with some guts, as he showed on his final 50 that he needed to pull out a win in his prelim heat. Andrew Gemmell looked smooth in qualifying and moving to fifth in the world. Connor Jaeger broke 15:00 to the feet this morning, and Peter Vanderkaay looms out of lane six. Expect another strategical race, and I don't know who to predict. As for me, though, I will watch on NBC from my home in Charleston, SC. I fly home in the morning, but I enjoyed this weekend so much. Thanks to everyone I got to meet and all of the swimmers I got to watch swim fast. Here in Omaha, though, one more day.

U.S. Olympic Trials: Day Seven Prelims

Qualifying heats wrapped up at the Trials this morning with a relatively low-key session of two events. The crowd thinned out compared to yesterday's prelims, especially after the conclusion of the women's 50 free. In the 18th and final heat of that women's 50 free, though, the crowd stood up and applauded the five-time Olympian swimming in lane three, Dara Torres. Torres finished second in her heat in 25.00, her top time in three years, and she will swim from lane three in the second semi-final tonight. She remains a wildcard as to whether she will make the team, but she showed this morning that she will be in the race.

After winning the 100 free last night, I expected a rough morning from Jessica Hardy in the 50 free. I thought she would end up in the semi-finals before waking up and putting together a much stronger performance in tonight's semi-final. However, Hardy swam great this morning, her 24.55 vaulting her into the top-eight in the world. Three swimmers not yet on the team rounded out the top four this morning. Lara Jackson finished third in 2008, but she did not get on the team when second-place Hardy stepped down from the Olympic team after testing positive. Jackson, the defending National champ in the event, goes for redemption tonight and tomorrow.

Megan Romano, Lara Jackson, Jessica Hardy, and Dara Torres walking up the stairs for their 50 free heat.

Meanwhile, SwimMAC teammates Madison Kennedy and Kara Lynn Joyce tied for third. Kennedy has her best chance to get on the team in the 50 after going out fast in the 100 free but fading to eighth. Joyce, meanwhile, did not even advance out of the prelims of the 100, but she has twice made the 50 free final at the last two Olympics. Both have their best shots to get on the team in the 50, but both face an uphill battle to finish in the top two.

Following the women's 50, the crowd mostly filed out, and those who remained fell silent for two hours. Before long, Andrew Gemmell woke the crowd up with a 14:57 mile to jump into the top five in the world. In the next heat, Connor Jaeger pulled away from Peter Vanderkaay to take the heat. He came into the wall at 14:59.97... and he kept going! Jaeger turned on the afterburners as if he had 100 meters go to. He flipped at the 1550, and then picked his head up and turned around to look at the lap counter. Confused when he didn't see one, he stopped halfway down the pool. Jaeger then received an ovation as he paddled back to the wall as the second qualifier.

Connor Jaeger signing autographs after an impressive swim in the 1575 free.

All of the main contenders got into the final. Vanderkaay finished second in his heat for fourth overall behind Gemmell, Jaeger, and Andrew Gemmell. In the final heat, Chad La Tourette engaged in a tight race with Michigan swimmers Sean Ryan and Ryan Feeley, and he ended up pulling out the win with a sub-28 final lap. La Tourette remains the favorite, despite just claiming the sixth seed, but I expect a tight race in the final tomorrow night. We won't know who really pushed it today and who has a lot left until we see the eight men dive in tomorrow.

I know, I didn't mention Missy Franklin or anyone in the women's 200 back in my blog last night. Not much happened in the semi-final besides Franklin probably exerting too much energy before her 100 free. I think Franklin gets her second win tonight and clinches a fourth individual event for London. The battle behind her should shape up between Elizabeth Beisel and Elizabeth Pelton, who has one last shot to make the team tonight. Watch out for records tonight; Franklin could dip under her own American record, a 2:05.10 from Worlds last year, and maybe she could take a shot at Kirsty Coventry's world record of 2:04.81. Franklin has not looked 100% this week, perhaps saving her best for the Olympics, but she will put everything she has left into one last swim tonight.

Michael Phelps and Tyler McGill highlight the men's 100 fly, but McGill looks vulnerable in the race for second, with Tom Shields, Davis Tarwater, and Tim Phillips, along with last night's tripler Ryan Lochte, all in the mix. Two-time World champion Kate Ziegler goes for her second Olympic team in the 800 tonight, and she looked strong in prelims. Youngsters Gillian Ryan and Katie Ledecky both have one last shot to become Olympians tonight, and Chloe Sutton has confidence after making the team in the 400, but Ziegler has a kick the last 50 that distance swimmers worldwide envy, and she will catch anyone she is close to the last lap.

Brendan Hansen made the Olympic team on Tuesday in the 200 breast. Besides Brendan, though, none of the major comebacks have as of yet ended in Olympic berths. That could change tonight, with top-seed Anthony Ervin in the men's 50 free. Ervin has the speed to win it all, but Nathan Adrian has racked up enough experience the last four years in the 50 free, including a Pan Pacs win over Cesar Cielo in 2010. Josh Schneider, meanwhile, has a bronze from Short Course Worlds to his credit. This is the men's 50 free, the fastest race in the pool. A race we will see.

Women's 200 Back
1. Missy Franklin
2. Elizabeth Beisel

Men's 100 Fly
1. Michael Phelps
2. Tyler McGill

Women's 800 Free
1. Kate Ziegler
2. Chloe Sutton

Men's 50 Free
1. Nathan Adrian
2. Anthony Ervin

U.S. Olympic Trials: The 400 Free Relays

Concern has been brewing on the deck here in Omaha. Most who have been paying attention to the world lately know that the Americans have done nothing to remove their underdog tags for both 400 free relays headed into the Olympics. The Australians look unstoppable in the men's 400 free relay, and the Dutch have a four year win streak in the women's  race. Over the last two days, I've taken a look at both relays in analysis posts on Swimming World's website. I strongly recommend checking those out. Take a look at where the Americans stand in both races and where improvement could come from all contending teams headed into the Olympics.

Check out the numbers for the men's and women's relays.

U.S. Olympic Trials: Day Six Finals

When I began to make plans for my trip to Omaha for Trials, I had one race underlined as can't-miss: the men's 200 IM. I knew we'd see something epic. While the time tonight did not really impress me, the head-to-head performance lit up the arena like nothing I've seen the past 48 hours. Nothing could separate the two men for nearly one minute, 55 seconds, and Michael Phelps got his hand on the wall nine one-hundredths before Ryan Lochte. Nobody sat down the entire race. And perhaps we saw history, the last 200 IM ever between the two on American soil.

Phelps and Lochte. Lochte and Phelps. Wow.

Like I said yesterday, if you are reading, you probably know what happened at Trials tonight. We saw Rebecca Soni reestablish her 200 breast dominance while Micah Lawrence showed that she could make a medal run at the Olympics. Soni looked like she held back the first half of the race, as did Lochte in the 200 back, who stormed home to pass Tyler Clary for the win. And then in the men's 100 free, Jessica Hardy took a surprising win, and Lia Neal, Amanda Weir, and Natalie Coughlin all etched their names on the team for the first time.

Serious credit to both Hardy and Coughlin tonight. Hardy controlled her emotions headed into the 100 final after a disappointment in the 100 breast following four years of pain after a more-than-rocky 2008 experience. I stood up to clap when she spoke to the crowd following her medal ceremony; she deserves some major recognition for what she pulled off tonight. Coughlin, meanwhile, watched teens dethrone her in her signature event, but she went out and did just what she needed to do to secure a relay spot at the Olympics. Props to a true champion for digging deep for that one.

Anthony Ervin remains a hot name on deck after a blazing 21.74 semi-final swim. That time knocked off a 21.80 from Trials 12 years ago as Ervin's lifetime best. Nathan Adrian, Josh Schneider, and Jimmy Feigen also broke 22 in the semi-final, though, and none of the four are a lock for the top-two. We are talking about the 50 free, a scramble of a race where you only win if you come through in the clutch and make no mistakes. Hard combination. Hopefully, at least one can clock a time in the sub-21.7 range in tomorrow's final, a grey area only Cesar Cielo has gotten into this year.

Almost nobody picks a swimmer besides Phelps and Tyler McGill to make the Olympic team in the 100 fly. Indeed, the two have shown why they are favorites so far, leading the field in both prelims and semis. But I wouldn't lock it up quite yet. Tom Shields has finally broken out long course, getting into the 51-range tonight, and Davis Tarwater will put everything he has into this race, the final one of his career if he does not make the Olympic team. Tim Phillips has the third-best lifetime best in the field, and he'll swim out of lane two. Oh, and what can a very fresh Ryan Lochte do? After pulling off a truly sick triple tonight, Lochte has one swim all day tomorrow, and he has some clutch powers.

Personally, some of my favorite moments tonight came out of the pool. Before the meet, I watched Katie Hoff sign autographs for jumbles of fans. It takes some serious guts to come out and be so thoughtful to the fans after the rough week she's endured. Meanwhile, I got my first up-close look at the greatest swimmer of all-time tonight. Phelps walked into the CenturyLink Center on the Skybridge from the Hilton across the street surrounded by National guard members and encased in a hoodie. Hours later, after 14,000 fans bid him a happy birthday, I watched Phelps sprint across the pool deck to find his mom and sisters for a famous Phelps family embrace in a TV moment come to life.

Katie Hoff's meet is over, but she won't let her fans down.

Michael Phelps arrives for battle.

Phelps leaves the arena after a rousing rendition of "Happy Birthday" and a Phelps family birthday hug.

U.S. Olympic Trials: Day Six Prelims

The arrival of the weekend brought the biggest crowd we've seen thus far in the morning. The usual suspects of Phelps, Lochte, Franklin, and Janet Evans brought out some serious excitement for the crowd. Timewise, one swim stood out: Anthony Ervin's 50 free. Ervin beat Nathan Adrian in the last heat of the 50 with a time of 21.83. Only once has Ervin beat that time, when he clocked 21.80 at the 2000 Olympic Trials in route to tying for the gold medal at the Olympics. The deck has exploded with buzz over the swim, most in consensus before the session that Ervin would not swim a 21.8. Adrian remains the favorite after coasting into the wall with the number two time, but Anthony Ervin has returned.

The crowd cheered Janet Evans despite a lackluster swim in the women's 800 before Katie Ledecky, Gillian Ryan, Chloe Sutton, and Kate Ziegler put up strong swims in the circle-seeded heats. Ziegler broke out this morning, with her 8:27.61 almost putting her in the world top ten. Ziegler disappointed in the 400 free earlier in the week, but she looked strong yet controlled in the heats today. Shout-out too to Katie Hoff for swimming the 800 despite a battle with food poisoning earlier on. She showed some heart in stepping up and trying to hang with the big guns.

Everyone knew they'd see Michael Phelps in the 100 fly today, but Ryan Lochte surprised most of us when he did not scratch the event. Lochte ended up putting up his best time in the event, a 52.21 to take second in the heat to Tyler McGill, the consensus choice for the second spot. Tom Shields also looked good in the heat before, dropping his lifetime best down from a 51.62 to 52.18 to take a close second in his heat to Tim Phillips. Shields has clearly improved significantly from last summer, when he trailed Phillips by almost a second in taking the silver at the World University Games.

The crowd liked seeing the man stretching on the lane four block.

Then in the final heat, Phelps showed his colors. Trailing Davis Tarwater at the turn, 24.40 to 24.70, Phelps blew up off the wall and brought the crowd to their feet as he reached for the wall in 51.80 to take the top time over McGill. On the women's side, only Missy Franklin can make the crowd wake up and go crazy, and she did soon after, taking the top seed in the 200 back. Elizabeth Beisel, Elizabeth Pelton, and Missy Franklin all won their heats, trading the top time as the heats went on. All three have already jumped into the world top-15. Franklin holds the American record and title of favorite, but Pelton and Beisel both have big experience and could have a dogfight to the wall. Beisel already won the 400 IM, but Pelton has not yet made this Olympic team.

Elizabeth Pelton all by herself as she cruises to a 200 back heat win.

Before I share my updated predictions for tonight's finals, I wanted to recap some quick points from my blog last night. Micah Lawrence has proved to be a level ahead of the field in the 200 breast so far, but no one will catch Rebecca Soni, who could challenge the world record if she goes out strong and maintains her back half from last night. Still, don't count out Amanda Beard though, as she could become a five-time Olympian tonight.No one doubts Lochte and Tyler Clary as the big favorites in the 200 back, but young gun Ryan Murphy keeps improving like crazy. Conor Dwyer, meanwhile, will try to stake his claim as one of the best in the world in the 200 IM, but Phelps and Lochte stand in his way. World record could be in trouble as the two titans go head-to-head once again. Finally, expect a tight race to the wall in the women's 100 free, and any of the eight could potentially make the relay. That includes Natalie Coughlin, in her last shot to get on a third Olympic team.

Women's 200 Breast

1. Rebecca Soni

2. Micah Lawrence

Men's 200 Back
1. Ryan Lochte
2. Tyler Clary

Women's 100 Free
1. Dana Vollmer
2. Missy Franklin
3. Allison Schmitt
4. Amanda Weir
5. Natalie Coughlin
6. Jessica Hardy

Men's 200 IM
1. Michael Phelps
2. Ryan Lochte

U.S. Olympic Trials: Day Five Finals

If you're reading this blog, I'll assume you saw what I saw at tonight's finals in Omaha: some really awesome racing and a big upset in the men's 200 breast (which I foreshadowed). I think the winners of each event shape up as medal contenders, though probably not the favorites right now. The American 400 free relay, meanwhile, looks in trouble with a relatively-slow final tonight. Don't get me wrong, I think Nathan Adrian will drop time from that swim – as he did in his progression from Nationals to Pan Pacs two years ago – and I think we will see some massive relay performances. Australia, though, has easily claimed the favorite title headed into the Olympics.

More on that relay battle coming up. Let me share some of my thoughts from the buzzing CenturyLink Center tonight. When we started things off in the men's 200 breast, I continually shared my belief that Eric Shanteau would not only make the team, but he would take home the win. Well, with Scott Weltz and Clark Burckle coming through, Shanteau found himself shockingly locked out in a surprisingly-slow time. You could see Shanteau's own shock. He officially received his Olympic team medal tonight for his second-place finish in the 100 breast, and he sounded dejected in a deck interview with Summer Sanders, a far cry from the elation he showed after the 100.

Up next, we saw semi-finals of the women's 100 free and men's 200 back. The entire pool deck felt the pressure of Natalie Coughlin finishing sixth in her semi-final and realizing how close she came to her Olympic dream coming to a crashing halt. She faces a really deep field tomorrow, but she has the talent and mental fortitude to step up and seize her final opportunity. You don't give a swimmer like Coughlin that many chances to make an Olympic team without her capitalizing on one. Expect her to finish in the top six.

Next up, Tyler Clary and Ryan Lochte picked up middle lanes for tomorrow's 200 back final, and they took incredibly different paths to those lanes. Clary consistently outsplit his opponents in route to lane five tomorrow. Clary picked up some major confidence with a second place-finish in the 200 fly last night, and he showed off that confidence as he accepted his official invitation to the Olympics, pumping his fists to the crowd, in sharp contrast to, for example, Shanteau. Lochte, meanwhile, played cool through the first 150 and turned more than a second behind Clary's pace at the 150. The entire arena, though, knew what came next. Lochte zoomed off his final turn with his patented underwater kicks, and the arena burst to life. Lochte will swim the final from lane four.

We didn't see any incredibly fast times or statements sent in the next two finals, but we sure saw exciting races. Everyone in the arena knew Cammile Adams had set herself up for a monster race, and she battled down the stretch to take down Kathleen Hersey. Hersey, meanwhile, showed some grit to hang on for second after what had been a rough week with a third place-finish in the 100 fly and missing the final of the 200 free.

As with Adams, everyone knew Nathan Adrian would win the 100 free, but beyond that, no one knew who would take the spots. In a big surprise, Cullen Jones put up his lifetime best in a textile suit to get second in 48.46 and grab an individual spot. Much to the delight of the crowd, Jason Lezak did rocket to get into sixth place, and he got some nice recognition for that. America loves its Olympic hero four years down the line from one of the biggest swims in American Olympic history. However, some have raised question if Lezak actually gets the spot with Michael Phelps a near lock to swim the relay and another possibility in Ryan Lochte. I have heard nothing official, though.

The last two semi-finals of the night showcased veterans and newcomers trying to make their mark. In the women's 200 breast, Rebecca Soni posted one of her best back-halves in years on her way to a 2:21.45 swim, the top time in the world this year. Looming, though, is Micah Lawrence, who posted a 2:24.12 tonight to set herself up as a favorite to advance to London behind Soni. Soni won't lose tomorrow night, and she could finally threaten the world record and the 2:20 mark. Lawrence, meanwhile, keeps chugging along in hopes of making it to her first Olympics.

Phelps and Lochte went at it again in the 200 IM semi-finals. In a semi-final – i.e., not a final – 14,000 stood up and cheered for the two greatest in the world. Lochte won in 1:55.51 after completely turning off the gas once again the last 15 meters, while Phelps came in at 1:56.32. Did they need to swim that fast? No. But they raced each other tonight, and they will battle again tomorrow from lanes four and five. No one else made the final out of the first semi-final heat, but Conor Dwyer established himself as the clear choice for third with a 1:58.32 swim to win the second semi-final. Dwyer will swim fast in the final, and he could get down into the 1:57-mid range or even faster. I wouldn't rule out the possibility of him making the top-five in the world. But in the end, that won't matter. Dwyer will remain number three domestically.

Tomorrow's prelims should be interesting with the fast-twitches ruling the pool in the men's 50 free and 100 fly, while we will get a good look at the competitive field taking shape in the women's 200 back, and one final look at some of America's stars in the women's 800 free. Chloe Sutton already made the team in the 400 free, but Kate Ziegler and Katie Ledecky only have one shot, and I look forward to watching them for the first time. Also, Katie Hoff will swim the 800 after a very disappointing meet in which sickness derailed her hopes in the 200 and 400. Hoff apparently feels much better, and I look forward to watching her swim for the first time tomorrow.

Elliott Keefer finished fifth in the 200 breast tonight after spending a year training with David Marsh at SwimMAC.

Nathan Adrian enters the CenturyLink Center in style.

Teresa Crippen warms up before a fourth-place finish in the 200 fly.

U.S. Olympic Trials: Day Five Prelims

Yeah, the CenturyLink Center looks cool for those of you watching at home on the USA Swimming webcast and on NBC. Well, you haven't seen anything. This place is phenomenal! On the inside of the arena, it feels like a pumped-up and crowded swim meet. Outside of the pool area, you realize that we are inside a multi-purpose arena. Junk food lines the walls as you walk between the different sessions. I haven't gotten a chance to explore much yet, but I will. I've run into a few big-name athletes and coaches, which of course is always a thrill for me. Generally, restrictions seemed fairly relaxed for prelims, but I expect that to change for finals. I've been here two hours now, and I've already heard about what I'm in store for tonight. I cannot wait.

We started things off with the women's 100 free, where Dana Vollmer led the way ahead of Jessica Hardy and Allison Schmitt. Margo Geer provided some thrills for the crowd when she went out under American record pace and ended up fourth. We saw another rough morning, though, from Natalie Coughlin. The 11-time Olympic medalist faded down the stretch of her heat to finish third in 54.99 and ninth overall. Her goal of a fourth Olympics remains alive, but she must step up in the finals to ensure a place in the final. I expect a 54.2 or so to be more than enough to earn a spot in London, and under normal conditions, I would believe Coughlin is more than capable. This meet, though, she has struggled.

Tyler Clary led qualifiers headed into the last heat of the men's 200 back, but much to the delight of the crowd, Ryan Lochte did what he does best and exploded off the last wall to take the top seed. Lochte and Clary remain the clear favorites, especially after Matt Grevers decided to scratch tonight's semi-final to focus on the men's 100 free. Lochte, Clary, and Ryan Murphy all looked easy and relaxed for the majority of their swims, so exppect them to kick it up a notch tonight.

Amanda Beard got the crowd going in the women's 200 breast when she won the second-to-last heat, but her 2:27.07 fell well short of the 2:24.95 that Micah Lawrence had established in the previous heat. Still, Beard had little head-to-head competition in her own heat, and I won't count her out until the final. After all these years, Amanda Beard is a racer, and she gets the crowd going hard. One heat later, Rebecca Soni came out and blitzed everyone else with a 2:23.11. She really turned on the gas the last 15 meters, again, much to the delight of the crowd. No one will beat her here. In the 100, she is good; in the 200, she is unstoppable.

Soni swimming away from the field in the 200 breast

Every time Michael Phelps and Ryan Lochte are in the same event, they find a way to swim next to each other. So nothing's new in the 200 IM, where Phelps and Lochte grabbed the second and fourth seeds, respectively. Just like we saw in the 200 free semi-final, I expect a cat-and-mouse race in which neither gets more than a few millimeters in front or behind the other. Conor Dwyer led the way in 1:59.11, and he should be able to firmly establish himself as top-five swimmer in the world in the event. Austin Surhoff also broke 2:00, and Peter Vanderkaay surprised the crowd when he pushed Lochte in their heat, taking the lead at the 150 before Lochte got his hand on the wall in front of his training partner by less than a tenth of a second. Interesting to see if Vanderkaay decides to swim this event tonight with the 1500 free coming up on Sunday.

Lochte and Vanderkaay Head-to-Head in the 200 IM

Much of the crowd emptied after Lochte finished his heat, but those that stayed lit up the arena during a swim-off for first alternate in the women's 200 breast. Allie Skekely led the whole way and held off a furious charge from Gisselle Kohoyda on the last lap. Skekely, swimming in the old FSII recordbreaker, won in 2:30.03, faster than her 2:30.28 from the prelims, while Kohoyda came in at 2:30.72. Skekely then signed autographs afterwards to the delight of those in the prime seats behind the blocks. What a way to end the morning session!

Allie Skekely Signing Autographs After Winning the Big Swim-Off

I just wrote my prelims blog hours ago, and nothing has changed regarding my thoughts for tonight's swims. Hard to figure out who WON'T be among the top-six in the 100 free; those relay events are always a toss up, and I expect the same tonight. Here we go:

Men's 200 Breast
1. Eric Shanteau
2. Brendan Hansen

Women's 200 Fly
1. Cammile Adams
2. Kathleen Hersey

Men's 100 Free
1. Nathan Adrian
2. Matt Grevers
3. Jimmy Feigen
4. Garrett Weber-Gale
5. Ricky Berens
6. Jason Lezak

Spotted: Dara Torres

U.S. Olympic Trials: Day Four Finals

Right now, I'm coming to you from 34,000 feet southwest of St. Louis, Missouri. Yep, that's right; I am on my way to Omaha and the fifth day of the Olympic Trials! But first, how about some thoughts about day four. Honestly, the finishes we saw were quite predictable. Allison Schmitt is one of the favorites for gold in the women's 200 free after becoming the second-fastest performer all-time in event last night. While Missy Franklin fared far worse timewise than most expected, she still got herself another individual swim, and she has tons of room for improvement as she chases a medal in London.

The favorite American women's 800 free relay remains a slight Olympic favorite, but they lost their tight grip on the title over the last few days. Schmitt's incredible improvement and Franklin's clutch relay potential keep the Americans up front, while no one can doubt that Dana Vollmer will come through when she needs to in London. The problem for the Americans comes on the fourth leg. Without Dagny Knutson and Katie Hoff, Lauren Perdue, Shannon Vreeland, and Alyssa Anderson all need to provide some needed improvement if the Americans want to win gold. Australia looms with the likes of Kylie Palmer, Bronte Barratt, and Stephanie Rice leading the way, and 1:57s from down under fill the world rankings. China, meanwhile, always comes to swim in the 800 relay. Definitely worth keeping an eye in the rearview mirror for the American women.

I predicted an ugly win for Michael Phelps in the 200 fly last night; he won, but I'm not sure I'd call 1:53.65 "ugly." No one else has ever beaten that time in a textile suit. After the race, Phelps predicted that the time would not win him Olympic gold, but he might not be correct. Takeshi Matsuda and the rest of the world keep getting stuck on the 1:54-low mark. Phelps owns the 200 fly, and he will enter the Olympic pool as the big favorite for a third straight gold. Tyler Clary, meanwhile, showed some serious heart in running down Bobby Bollier for the second spot on the team. After the disappointment of a third-place finish in the 400 IM, an event in which he had won two World championship silver medals, you can't help but feel happy for the new Olympian.

The 200 IM panned out about how I expected in terms of strategy. Elizabeth Pelton took it out hard – too hard, it would turn out – and ended up succumbing to the emotionally-driven charge of world record-holder Ariana Kukors. Caitlin Leverenz, meanwhile, locked up a spot on the team, but she has to be disappointed in her time. She swam a 2:09.39 at last year's Winter Nationals, almost a second faster than her 2:10.22 last night, and she had also been under 2:10 earlier this year. Kukors also had a faster time to her credit, and she won bronze at the Worlds last year in 2:09.12. Pelton, even, swam a 2:10.02 last December. While we can't be impressed with the times, fans of USA Swimming know there is tremendous room for improvement, and I would not be surprised in the least to see one of the two on the medal stand.

In semi-final action, Nathan Adrian claimed the favorite title for the 100 free, and just as was the case for three years at NCAAs, Jimmy Feigen will be hot on his heels. I do worry, though, about the 400 free relay. Australia now has the favorite title locked up headed into London, and the French always pose a threat, and Russia is a wildcard. The field contains plenty of depth, but we haven't seen the 47s required to make a big impact internationally. Adrian has that potential, no question, and expect to see his first sub-48 clocking in the final. Garrett Weber-Gale, the Trials winner four years ago, put up a monster 47.3 relay split in Shanghai, but he has not indicated yet that he can swim that fast here in Omaha.

Matt Grevers intended to scratch the final to focus on the 200 back, but he changed his mind last-minute. Grevers must think he can put down a big performance, and we should expect that after his game-changing 52.08 in the 100 back. Ryan Lochte, meanwhile, scratched the final, so we will have to wait and see if he ends up on the 400 free relay come London. In his stead, 36 year old Jason Lezak gets one last shot at Olympic glory. Lezak, out in lane eight, will try to get on his fourth Olympic team tonight and contribute more clutch relay swims for the U.S. Like I said yesterday, past beneficiaries of Lochte scratches (Adrian and Grevers) have all gone on to make impacts in the final, so we will see what happens this evening.

Cammile Adams has rolled through qualifying of the 200 fly so far to set herself up as a slight favorite headed into the final. Already ranked sixth in the world with a 2:06.76 from back in January, Adams could make her first Olympic team tonight. Don' t count out my pick for the win, Kathleen Hersey, who looks to refocus and make her second Olympic team tonight. Hersey has consistently been in the mix in this event domestically over the past five years, and I expect nothing different tonight. I expect that the battle will come from the center four or five lanes, with Pan Pac silver medalist Teresa Crippen and 2007 World silver medalist Kim Vandenberg both with realistic shots at London, while Kelsey Floyd has the spoiler role from out in lane two.

Also tonight we have the final of the men's 200 breast, and I expect the three men that dominated the second semi-final last night to do the same. Clark Burckle is the top qualifier, followed by Eric Shanteau and Brendan Hansen. On the other side of Hansen, though, will be Elliott Keefer, a U.S. World Championship representative in the event, and Scott Weltz could provide an upset from lane six. The big three, though, are the class of the field, and I expect Hansen to take the race out hard, and while Shanteau might catch him on the back end, Hansen has his 200 confidence back to take on anyone in the world. Look for a 2:08 out of Shanteau tonight, with Hansen not far behind.

Almost to Omaha, and I should make it in time to watch some of this morning's prelims session. Look for Ryan Lochte's big double with the 200 back and 200 IM and the return of Rebecca Soni and Natalie Coughlin, both coming off disappointing swims on Wednesday night. Look for some features coming up on the Swimming World website and another blog right here sometime this afternoon.

U.S. Olympic Trials: Day Four Prelims

With another morning session in the books in Omaha, the Trials are almost to the halfway point. Most of the major contenders got into the semi-finals of the men's 100 free, women's 200 fly, and men's 200 breast without any real statements made. Sure, Clark Burckle and Scott Weltz must be happy with 2:10s in the 200 breast, and Kim Vandenberg and Cammile Adams both look great with 2:08s in the 200 fly, but we won't really know anything about what is to come at least until after tonight's semi-finals.

The glamor event of Trials has begun, and it is the men's 100 free. Notably absent, though, is the greatest of all time in Michael Phelps, who remains focused on his 200 fly tonight. Ryan Lochte, though, did swim prelims and will compete again in the semi-finals tonight. I, obviously, have expectations of Americans getting into the 47 range over the next two days in hopes of putting up a challenge to the Australian favorites in the 400 free relay. Lochte and Phelps will both be big pieces of that puzzle. Phelps has earned his spot on the relay with years upon years of impressive leadoffs, but Lochte did not make that final foursome last summer in Shanghai after two years on the squad.

I view Lochte as one of the nation's top-four 100 freestylers, pending what we see in the final. However, if he makes the final, he would have to swim that along with the semi-finals of both the 200 back and 200 IM on Friday. Sounds like a nasty triple. Tonight, then, look for an impressive swim out of Ryan Lochte. There remains a good chance that he will pull out if he makes the final eight, so he needs to make his mark tonight. And if Lochte does pull out, watch for whoever finishes ninth and ends up taking his place. At the 2008 Trials, Nathan Adrian tied for ninth before winning a swim-off with Alex Righi to make the final, and he ended up finishing fourth from lane eight. A year later at World Championship Trials, Matt Grevers earned the lucky spot that Lochte voided and ended up swimming a key leg on the winning 400 free relay two weeks later in Rome.

The women's 200 fly remains one of the weaker events for the U.S. and also one of the most wide open. One finals spot probably opened up this morning when Elaine Breeden missed out on the semi-finals, ending up a very disappointing 17th. 2007 World silver medalist Vandenberg leads the way, but she'll have veteran threats in Kathleen Hersey and Teresa Crippen on her tail, along with NCAA runner-up Adams. But the 200 fly offers a big opening for some young talent to really jump into the mix and make a statement. Becca Mann has already done just that in making finals in both the 400 IM and 400 free. Mann finished seventh in prelims today, right in front of fellow teens Courtney Weaver and Megan Kingsley.

Kingsley, who led the way headed into the circle-seeded heats this morning, represents the Mount Pleasant Swim Club from right here in the Charleston area. Indeed, the top story on our NBC affiliate's website read "Swimmer from Mount Pleasant advances in U.S. Olympic Trials." Kingsley's swim galvanizes the local community and creates local excitement regarding the meet. Swimming only gets this kind of attention once every four years, so to have a local swimmer from a swimming-deprived state make it into a semi-final sure creates some buzz.  But for right now, go Megan!

We've got three finals tonight, two women's to go along with a race for second in the men's 200 fly.  Michael Phelps isn't peaked here, but like I said last night, he will pull this one out in a 1:54-low. Bobby Bollier looked great in the semi-final last night, and Tyler Clary is always a contender, but I'll stick with Davis Tarwater to finish second. After another killer seventh-place finish in the 200 free, Tarwater wants another shot at the Olympics after finishing third in the 200 fly four years ago.

On the women's side, Missy Franklin and Allison Schmitt will battle in the women's 200 free. I expect both to be in the 1:54-range and under Schmitt's American record of 1:54.96. Schmitt wins here, but all bets are off when London comes around. Dana Vollmer is the best of the rest, and hopefully the others will turn on the jets to show off a good contingent for the American 800 free relay come London. Finally, we've got world record-holder Ariana Kukors facing off with Elizabeth Pelton, Caitlin Leverenz, and Elizabeth Beisel in the 200 IM. I've seen Leverenz just dominate the race so far at Trials, and I think she'll come out on top. Expect a really tight, strategic race, and I'd like to see more than one time in the 2:09, or even 2:08 range.

Updated Predictions:

Women's 200 Free:

1. Allison Schmitt

2. Missy Franklin

3. Dana Vollmer

4. Megan Romano

5. Shannon Vreeland

6. Lauren Perdue

Men's 200 Fly:

1. Michael Phelps

2. Davis Tarwater

Women's 200 IM:

1. Caitlin Leverenz

2. Ariana Kukors

This prelims blog will be my only post today. I am swimming tonight at a summer league meet before I get up early tomorrow morning. That's right, tomorrow begins my adventure to Omaha and the Olympic Trials. Please come find me or let me know if you'll be there! I will be up in the stands watching carefully and blogging, and I have some interesting features coming up on the Swimming World website. Enjoy finals, and next time you hear from me, I will be on my way to Omaha!

U.S. Olympic Trials: Day Three Finals

In my blog after the second session of finals, I declared the theme of the night to be emotion. Tonight, Tom Willdridge explained on Twitter that "The drama in the last 3 races at US Trials has surpassed the entire first 2 days of trials. Shock after shock after shock." Indeed, I don't think anyone could have predicted the way these finals would work out. Some of the performances we saw were surprisingly fast and others shockingly slow. Indeed, the swims fell perfectly into the two categories with the big favorites falling short of expectations while the less-experienced swimmers blasted the doors off. Let's start with the vets.

Michael Phelps and Ryan Lochte went head-to-head once again in the 200 free, with Phelps getting the win and getting the sport a 19-second spot on SportsCenter. But 1:45.70 and 1:45.75? Those times are far short of where they were at last year's Worlds, where Lochte won with a 1:44.44. A year of training has gone to waste? I don't think so. Lochte and Phelps want to peak at the Olympics. Swimming off minimal taper, they just clinched their spots to go up against Park Tae Hwan, Paul Biedermann, and Yannick Agnel in London. Agnel, remember, still has the top time in the world at 1:44.42. But we are talking about Phelps and Lochte. All that matters is swimming well in London, when gold medals and legacies are on the line. They will be there. They will be gold medal favorites. Expect nothing less from the two greatest swimmers in the world.

Some thought Breeja Larson could sneak ahead of Jessica Hardy into the second spot for the 100 breast. Sure. But did anyone think she could beat Rebecca Soni? No way. Larson put together an incredible swim to take the win in 1:05.92, with Soni second in 1:05.99. Soni has swum more than a second faster each of the last two years. She still has the top time in the world from the semi-finals at 1:05.82. And Soni is still the best breaststroker in the world. Tonight's swim contained a myriad of mistakes for Soni, like a truly terrible finish, and in her postrace interview with NBC, Soni seemed genuinely shocked with the time. Like Phelps and Lochte, though, Soni is an Olympic record. She has a track record of going faster at the big ones. Soni will still go into the Olympics as the favorite for gold, and expect something big out of her in London.

Meanwhile, Breeja Larson! Where did that come from? Larson did not swim at Long Course Nationals last summer after a health scare, and she's gone from second at NCAAs as a freshman to a victory and American record as a sophomore to a shocking Olympic berth. Breeja Larson is a medal contender now! Again, Soni is still the huge favorite for gold, Leisel Jones is still around, and Yuliya Efimova will be in the mix. But she has come from nowhere, and you never know what this young lady could pull off in a month's time. At the same time, though, you have to feel bad for Jessica Hardy after all she has been through the past four years. She will be back, though, in the sprint freestyles.

The women's 100 back was a coming-out party. Missy Franklin is now an Olympian. In a changing-of-the-guard, she broke Natalie Coughlin's American record to establish herself as the top swimmer in the world and favorite for gold in London. She never backs down from expectations, and she never backs down from a challenge, such as sitting out just one heat between the second semi-final of the 200 free and the 100 back final. I didn't think Rachel Bootsma would go any faster than her 59.10 in the semi-finals, but she has a spot on the team. And props to Natalie Coughlin. Coughlin went out for it and died hard, but she showed some the heart of a champion and immediately went to congratulate the pair that dethroned her in the 100 back. What a performance after the race. Here's to hoping Coughlin gets on the team down the line in the 100 frece.

"I had to do a double-take with the clock, because I thought it was wrong." You may understand why Rowdy Gaines used this quote. Matt Grevers just swam the second-fastest time ever! Where did that come from! Now, Grevers is the favorite to win gold in London, and he could be a big factor in the 200 back and 100 free later on this week. After an American sprint backstroke slump following the retirement of Aaron Peirsol, Nick Thoman also put up a top-three time in the world this year after his 52.86 to become a first-time Olympian. Hard not to feel bad, though, for David Plummer (52.98) and Ben Hesen (53.03), both of whom put up spectacular swims to just miss out. But after Brendan Hansen's 100 breast time of 59.68 from yesterday, any American question marks regarding the first half of the 400 medley relay are gone.

In semi-final action, Missy Franklin just made sure she got second in the 200 free in preparation for that 100 back. Allison Schmitt threw down a 1:55.58, but it will be quite a duel between those two tomorrow. We still haven't seen anything too impressive behind those two in search of relay depth, but just wait for the final to see what Dana Vollmer can put on the board and who else will make a statement in hopes of getting on a finals relay in London. In another women's final tomorrow, world record-holder Ariana Kukors should remain the on-paper favorite, but she has not been swimming fast yet at these Trials. Caitlin Leverenz has laid down a 2:10.51, and after a string of impressive performances in the 200 IM, she now has become the true favorite. Elizabeth Pelton pulled out of the 100 back final to focus on the 200 IM, and she will be out fast without question. Expect a great strategic race here, and I think Leverenz will take the win.

Michael Phelps returned to the pool for the semi-finals of the 200 fly, and he looked sluggish until the last 15 meters, when he turned on the gas and almost caught up to heat leaders Bobby Bollier and Davis Tarwater. The race might be a bit ugly, but Phelps will win tomorrow night. I expect a time in the 1:54-low range. The battle for second could be interesting. Tarwater missed out again in his quest for an Olympic spot after finishing seventh in the 200 free, and he will be out fast in the final. Bollier and Tyler Clary are good, consistent 200 flyers, and I'm not sure anyone on the outside of the middle four can get in on this mix.

What a night in Omaha! How much better of a swim meet can you watch on television? But it would be a bit better life from the CenturyLink Center. I have just one more day here at home before I am off on my trip to the Cornhusker state. The drama and storylines are building up, and I can't wait to be a witness.

U.S. Olympic Trials: Day Three Prelims

After witnessing the most uneventful session of the meet this morning, we now gear up for the first full slate of four finals in just a few short hours. The Olympic team could double in size tonight as 12 new spots are handed out in the CenturyLink Center. And what better way to kick off the finals than with the men's 200 free. Nothing has changed since my last blog; this race still belongs to two men named Ryan Lochte and Michael Phelps, in some order. 400 free runner-up Conor Dwyer and relay staple Ricky Berens have the edge on the third spot to head to London on the 800 free relay, but anyone in that final heat could head to London. Peter Vanderkaay missing out on the final does tweak my picks just a bit, but we'll see a nail bitter the whole way for the top six spots.

I'm standing pat with my predictions in the men's 100 back and women's 100 breast, but the stellar swims we saw yesterday from teenagers Missy Franklin and Rachel Bootsma gives them the edge, I think, in the women's 100 back final. Combined with the lackluster performances we've seen thus far from two-time defending gold medalist Natalie Coughlin, I think Franklin and Bootsma have done enough to go to London in the 100 back. Coughlin will swim much faster than she swam in the semi-final last night, but I don't think she can take a spot in the top two. Despite a double with the 200 free semi-final tonight, I think Franklin will win this race, and I think she'll break Coughlin's American record of 58.94.

Updated Predictions:
Men's 200 Free:
1. Ryan Lochte
2. Michael Phelps
3. Ricky Berens
4. Conor Dwyer
5. Matt McLean
6. Davis Tarwater

Women's 100 Back
1. Missy Franklin
2. Rachel Bootsma

Men's 100 Back
1. Matt Grevers
2. Nick Thoman

Women's 100 Breast
1. Rebecca Soni
2. Jessica Hardy

The American women took the gold last year in the women's 800 free relay at Worlds, but two of the four who swam on that team will not go for spots in London. Katie Hoff, battling illness for the past several days, missed the semi-finals, and Dagny Knutson did not even come to Omaha. I still think this team is the best in the world, led by Franklin, Allison Schmitt, and Dana Vollmer, but the U.S. needs some step-up performances tonight and tomorrow. I look at Georgia swimmers Morgan Scroggy and Megan Romano as those most capable of giving the team a boost in the 200 free.

Aside from the headliners of Phelps, Bollier, and Clary, I saw some familiar names make it into the semi-finals of the men's 200 fly. The University of South Carolina's Michael Flach became the first swimmer representing my home state to advance with a seventh-seeded 1:58.56. I have had the pleasure of running into Michael a couple of times during the past year, in which he has been redshirting from NCAA competition, and I look forward to watching him swim tonight.

15 swimmers broke 2:00 in the 200 fly this morning, and Dominick Glavich came about as close as you can get at 2:00.03. The University of North Carolina standout completed the semi-finalists, and I wish him good luck tonight as well. I watched Glavich race at the TYR Capital Classic in 2010 when I covered the meet for Swimming World, and I also raced with him at a meet last summer in Savannah, Georgia. We swam together in a 200 back heat in which I swam 75 meters after an aborted start until a teammate jumped into the pool to stop me.

Tom Shields went under 2:00 this morning to put himself into the semi-finals, as did Will Hamilton, Shields' Cal teammate who, as a freshman, stole the NCAA title in this event from right under Shields' nose. I expect a bigger swim out of Shields in the 100 fly, where he could serve as a spoiler for the top contenders to finish second behind Michael Phelps.

U.S. Olympic Trials: Day Two Finals

What a night two at Trials... and I missed it! I was at a summer league meet, following results closely, and I had to watch all the races on my DVR hours later. In the three finals I watched, I saw one key theme: emotion. Each of the six new Olympians showed hugely different emotions that reflected the magnitude of making the Olympic team. Each came from somewhere different and faced adversity. The roads for all six ended in victory tonight. And beyond tonight, each will turn their emotions into adrenaline, and I think all can improve and swim much faster at the Olympics in a month.

Dana Vollmer made the Olympic team and won gold in 2004, but she missed out four years ago in the very same CenturyLink Center. Tonight, she put those demons behind her. In her best event, the 100 fly, Vollmer did not break the world record or even her own American record, but she made it. She didn't go the time she wanted, but how can you not feel relieved? Dana Vollmer is now a two-time Olympian. Now she can refocus and go after the ultimate prize: gold. And Claire Donahue is a first-time Olympian. Swimming in lane one yet firmly in the line of view of her competitors, Donahue came out and got it done. Sure, she is happy; how can you not be in that situation? But most of all, we saw pride from Claire Donahue. The first Olympic swimmer ever from Western Kentucky, she proudly displayed the flag of her alma mater for all to see on national television.

When Brendan Hansen touched first in the men's 100 breast final, we saw validation. Hansen felt validated in making a comeback after two disappointing Olympic performances. Combined with his renewed sense of passion and excitement, Hansen can go after the one prize that has eluded him: individual Olympic gold. And then there's Eric Shanteau. Four years ago, Shanteau couldn't really celebrate when he made the Olympic team, knowing he faced a decision if he would make the trip to London or not after learning of his diagnosis with testicular cancer. Tonight, though, he had no decisions facing him. In his weaker of the two breaststroke events, Shanteau got his hands on the fall, and he exploded with excitement. I have never seen such excitement from Shanteau, not when he broke American records, when he won a relay world title, or especially when he qualified in Omaha four years ago. No, that right there was four years of built-up emotion spilling out.

Allison Schmitt took out the women's 400 free final a second and a half under world record-pace. Batting nerves and jitters, Schmitt went out and looked invincible. That is, until she started coming back to Chloe Sutton on the final 100. No worries, though. Schmitt is an Olympian for the second straight games, and she will have her head on straight when she steps up to race Camille Muffat, Federica Pellegrini, and Rebecca Adlington in London. Despite those nerves, Schmitt has shown she can challenge the big three. Sutton, meanwhile, always swims with emotion, and she showed it tonight. Laying low on the racing scene this year after not wearing fastskins for much of the year, Sutton gave everything she had tonight and took a second off her best time to get on the team. Sutton, like Hansen, felt validation in making the team. An open water Olympian in 2008, she gave up her open water ambitions to focus on making the Olympics in the 400 and 800 free, and she will be in the pool in London.

The men's 200 free semi-finals featured two men: Ryan Lochte and Michael Phelps. The two went kick-for-kick off the final wall and stroke-for-stroke down the final 15 meters. Who will get those top two Olympic spots tomorrow? Lochte and Phelps. Or Phelps and Lochte. The battle is for the third, fourth, fifth, and sixth spots for the 800 free relay. Conor Dwyer has established himself as a favorite with big swims the last two nights, and you can never count out someone with the experience of Ricky Berens. Peter Vanderkaay missing out, though, hurts the U.S. team. A mainstay on this relay for eight years, the relay will look strikingly different without the reigning Olympic bronze medalist. As a member of the team already, Vanderkaay could still find his way onto the relay, especially with his coach Gregg Troy as head Olympic coach.

The women's 100 breast should be a question of how low can Rebecca Soni go, and can Jessica Hardy challenge her. If not, can Breeja Larson push Hardy for the second spot on the team? Larson has already shown her capabilities with a 1:06.52 prelims race. Hardy's inconsistency in the 100 breast makes a race with Soni for the win just as possible as a race with Larson for the second spot. But if you're putting money on this race, Soni will take the win, and Hardy will finish second.

Matt Grevers threw his name out as the 100 back favorite with a 52.94 prelims swim, and all we learned in the semi-final tonight is that the race will be tight. Grevers, David Plummer, and Nick Thoman are all 53-low going into the final, and behind them, the field has gotten a whole lot faster. Six guys swam under 54 tonight, and as I've said, count out nobody in the middle lanes in this final. Ben Hesen swam a 53.52 to place himself in lane six, a perfect spot for a spoiler, and high schooler Ryan Murphy has been cutting off huge increments of time with each passing race. I like my pick of Grevers and Thoman, but the race is on.

Missy Franklin and Rachel Bootsma both lit up the board tonight in the women's 100 back semi-finals, with respective times of 59.06 and 59.10. We saw one other sub-1:00 time, a 59.82 from Olivia Smoliga, another teenager. Where does that leave two-time defending Olympic champion and 29 year old Natalie Coughlin? Out in lane one with the seventh-best qualifying time, a 1:00.63. Do I count out Coughlin? Never. But she has the biggest battle of her career ahead of her to make the Olympic team in her signature event. Franklin has the semi-final of the 200 free before the 100 back final tomorrow, but I don't think that matters. This is Missy Franklin's coming out party, and she will secure her spot on her first Olympic team with a big win in the final.