Monday, June 25, 2012

U.S. Olympic Trials: Day One Finals

Wow! What a first night of finals in Omaha.We saw the highs of Elizabeth Beisel swimming the fastest time in the world in the 400 IM and Caitlin Leverenz making her first Olympic team after three heartbreaking third and fourth-place finishes in 2008. We saw the lows in the men's 400 IM as Tyler Clary fell by the wayside to two all-time greats in Ryan Lochte and Michael Phelps. We saw an surprisingly slow race in the men's 400 free, but despite my time predictions, the two I picked earlier today came out on top. Not a ton developed tonight, but I have some quick thoughts to share.

I have long anticipated Ryan Lochte making a statement in the 400 IM final we saw tonight. He made a statement with the win, but I expected faster. I thought he would beat his lifetime best, but he fell more than a second short. But honestly, Lochte could have reached 4:06.08 - if he had not completely cut the gas at the flags. Phelps went ahead and made history with his fourth Olympic bid, but how can you not feel bad for Tyler Clary? Clary spent three years as the second-best swimmer in the world in the event, but Michael Phelps showed us tonight why he is the greatest of all-time. And the two gave swimming some publicity - a 27-second clip of the race on SportsCenter! And Lochte is trending nationally and worldwide on Twitter.

Florida-trained athletes claimed four of the six Olympic slots up for grabs tonight, but none of the four impressed me with their times. As I mentioned, I expected more of Lochte and still expect much more come the Olympics. Peter Vanderkaay won the men's 400 free in 3:47.67, but he put up a 3:44.83 at the Worlds last year to take fourth. Elizabeth Beisel beat her World Champs winning time in the 400 IM by 0.04, but she seemed genuinely surprised by her time. What could that mean? Did Gregg Troy not fully rest his athletes in hopes of improved performance in London? It sure looks like it. One thing I know is that the Gators have a lot left in the tank.

Two semi-final races tonight set up strikingly similar scenes for the finals of the women's 100 fly and men's 100 breast. Brendan Hansen is back with a 59.71 semi-final swim, almost a half second in front of anyone else headed into the final. I think the battle is on for second, with newcomers such as Scott Weltz and Kevin Cordes batting savvy veterans in Mark Gangloff and Eric Shanteau. The women's 100 fly? Dana Vollmer's American record sets her up as the class of the field and Olympic favorite, but anyone else could qualify for the second spot. Elaine Breeden has a shot at her second Olympic team, Natalie Coughlin could qualify early for her third, or a younger swimmer like Kelsey Floyd or Claire Donahue could climb into the spot. Donahue could start as the favorite, though, as she is the only swimmer outside of Vollmer to break 58 in either the prelims or semis.

Defending Olympic silver medalist Christine Magnuson got into the 100 fly final, but she will dive off the lane eight block tomorrow. We haven't seen a performance like we've expected from Magnuson in two years, since she won Nationals in 2010 in 57.32. While that time would probably make the Olympic team, I'm not sure she has that kind of performance in the tank right now. I will post my full list of predictions tomorrow after prelims; I have one night to decide who I think takes the second slot in both of these events.

U.S. Olympic Trials: Day One Prelims

Trials have begun, and in the first morning of prelims, we've already seen some fast swims. Those swims include a world-leading time and another that ranks in the top-three. Obviously, though, we are just getting started. I wanted to take a quick look at this morning's swims before the first heats of finals dive off the blocks, and the first swimmers qualify for the Olympic Team.

Ryan Lochte was the top qualifier in the 400 IM. By a lot. Swimming by himself in the final heat, Lochte put up a time of 4:10.66, more than four seconds faster than Michael Phelps and three seconds faster than he swam in prelims at Trials four years ago. At that meet, Lochte swam his still-standing lifetime best time of 4:06.08. Do I think he drops three seconds off of that in finals? No, but I think he wins the race, and I think he goes his best time. Phelps' U.S. Open record of 4:05.25 is in jeopardy.

Now, the real battle is for second. Phelps dragged North Baltimore teammate Chase Kalisz to the second seed, but I think it comes down to lane five versus lane six, Phelps vs. Tyler Clary. Both have indicated that they didn't really put much effort into the race in prelims, but I'm going to stick with my prediction that Clary takes the second spot onto his first Olympic team. Never a good idea to pick against Michael Phelps, though, and I recognize that. Look for an epic race tonight.

Updated Predictions:
1. Ryan Lochte
2. Tyler Clary

Dana Vollmer. That about sums up the women's 100 fly. Vollmer swam the top time in the world this year with her 56.59. That is faster than Sarah Sjostrom's 56.79 from March and Inge de Brujin's twelve year old U.S. Open record of 56.64. And that was prelims. Vollmer wants a world record. Vollmer wants to swim a 55. And at this point, it's hard to doubt her. Beyond Vollmer, Claire Donahue looked good in breaking 58 to qualify second, and Elaine Breeden and Natalie Coughlin are both in the mix, as expected. Christine Magnuson, though, could be in trouble. She qualified eighth in 59.05, but she needs to make a statement in the semi-finals tonight if she wants to have a chance of making the team.

Heat ten of the men's 400 free, the first of the circle-seeded heats, featured a four-way race between Connor Jaeger, Charlie Houchin, Matt Patton, and Conor Dwyer. Jaeger ended up taking the win in 3:48.06, while the other three all got under 3:49. Ryan Feeley and Matt McLean ended up going 1-2 in the next heat, before Peter Vanderkaay won the final heat over Michael Klueh and Michael McBroom. When the dust settled, McBroom finished eighth in 3:49.89, while McLean was ninth in 3:49.96. Tough break for the defending national champion McLean, who also ended up ninth four years ago. McLean, though, still could make the Olympic team in the 200 free as a relay swimmer, but the road is much tougher.

Vanderkaay, despite qualifying fifth, is still the favorite to take the win. Vanderkaay says he's going for his best time tonight, a 3:43.10 from the 2008 Olympics. I'm not sure he can go that fast right now, but I expect a swim in the 3:44-mid range, around the 3:44.83 he swam to take fourth at the Worlds last year. Second place will be a tough battle, but I'll go with Conor Dwyer for that second spot in a tight battle. I think a time in the 3:46-mid range should be enough to get on that Olympic team.

Updated Predictions:
1. Peter Vanderkaay
2. Conor Dwyer

I picked Elizabeth Beisel and Caitlin Leverenz to go 1-2 in the women's 400 IM, and I can't see the race turning out any other way. Beisel led the way with her 4:35.72, and only Leverenz was within four seconds. In what turned out to be a fairly weak field - only three broke 4:40 in prelims - Beisel could come close to Katie Hoff's American record of 4:31.12, set in Omaha four years ago. The world champion will set herself up for a run at Olympic gold.

Updated Predictions:
1. Elizabeth Beisel
2. Caitlin Leverenz

The men's 100 breast prelims featured six swimmers under 1:01, surprisingly led by John Criste at 1:00.29. Favorite Brendan Hansen ended up just one one-hundredth behind at 1:00.30, and two-time Olympian Mark Gangloff ended up third, followed by Scott Weltz, Kevin Cordes, and Eric Shanteau. Oh, and Mike Alexandrov, Clark Burckle, and Marcus Titus are looming. Should be interesting to see who makes top-eight, and the semi-finals tonight will sort through these top-16.

Some of my personal highlights from prelims came in the earlier heats. Megan Kingsley from Mount Pleasant Swim Club dropped three seconds in the women's 400 IM to place 25th overall. Just 16 and swimming from lane one, Kingsley dominated her heat from the outset and didn't let anyone catch her. While she didn't advance out of prelims, she just picked up this Trials cut six weeks ago at the Charlotte UltraSwim. Watch out for her in the 200 fly coming up.

Swimming World's Jeff Commings competed in his third Olympic Trials today, and he put up a strong time of 1:04.12 in the men's 100 breast. It has been quite a pleasure reading Jeff's blog over the past year as he chronicled his journey to the Olympic Trials, and I thoroughly enjoyed watching him swim. Now, Jeff goes back to work, but he doesn't have far to go; watch for Jeff in Swimming World's coverage of the meet.

Trials go live on NBC at 8pm ET tonight, and I'll be glued to the TV for the hour following. After that, semis of the men's 100 breast will be broadcast online. Should be fantastic. I'll be back to share my thoughts on the first night when it's all over.

Sunday, June 24, 2012

U.S. Olympic Trials: The Predictions

The Trials start tomorrow. The swim world is buzzing, and the swim geeks are geeking. Over the past two days, you've read my thoughts about this meet. Now, let's see who I think take the spots to go to London and the Olympic Games.

Men’s 400 IM
1. Ryan Lochte
2. Tyler Clary

Women’s 100 Fly
1. Dana Vollmer
2. Natalie Coughlin

Men’s 400 Free
1. Peter Vanderkaay
2. Michael Klueh

Women’s 400 IM
1. Elizabeth Beisel
2. Caitlin Leverenz

Men’s 100 Breast
1. Brendan Hansen
2. Mark Gangloff

Women’s 100 Back
1. Missy Franklin
2. Natalie Coughlin

Men’s 200 Free
1. Ryan Lochte
2. Michael Phelps
3. Peter Vanderkaay
4. Ricky Berens
5. Conor Dwyer
6. Matt McLean

Women’s 100 Breast
1. Rebecca Soni
2. Jessica Hardy

Men’s 100 Back
1. Matt Grevers
2. Nick Thoman

Women’s 400 Free
1. Allison Schmitt
2. Chloe Sutton

Women’s 200 Free
1. Allison Schmitt
2. Missy Franklin
3. Dana Vollmer
4. Katie Hoff
5. Megan Romano
6. Morgan Scroggy

Men’s 200 Fly
1. Michael Phelps
2. Davis Tarwater

Women’s 200 IM
1. Caitlin Leverenz
2. Ariana Kukors

Men’s 100 Free
1. Nathan Adrian
2. Garrett Weber-Gale
3. Jimmy Feigen
4. Matt Grevers
5. Ricky Berens
6. Jason Lezak

Women’s 200 Fly
1. Kathleen Hersey
2. Cammile Adams

Men’s 200 Breast
1. Eric Shanteau
2. Brendan Hansen

Women’s 100 Free
1. Missy Franklin
2. Natalie Coughlin
3. Dana Vollmer
4. Megan Romano
5. Allison Schmitt
6. Jessica Hardy

Men’s 200 Back
1. Ryan Lochte
2. Tyler Clary

Women’s 200 Breast
1. Rebecca Soni
2. Amanda Beard

Men’s 200 IM
1. Michael Phelps
2. Ryan Lochte

Men’s 50 Free
1. Nathan Adrian
2. Josh Schneider

Women’s 800 Free
1. Chloe Sutton
2. Kate Ziegler

Men’s 100 Fly
1. Michael Phelps
2. Tyler McGill

Women’s 200 Back
1. Missy Franklin
2. Elizabeth Beisel

Women’s 50 Free
1. Jessica Hardy
2. Dara Torres

Men’s 1500 Free
1. Chad La Tourette
2. Peter Vanderkaay

Saturday, June 23, 2012

U.S. Olympic Trials: Two Days Out

Olympic Trials are nearly here. The Olympic spirit is in the air as athletes and coaches have made their way to Omaha. Trials in diving and track fill up most of the day's schedule on NBC. At the King County Aquatic Center near Seattle, we hope to be witnessing a resurgence in American diving led by David Boudia and Nick McCrory. Still, the grand jewel of Trials is coming up on Monday - swimming. Swimmers as different as a 16 year old girl from South Carolina and a 38 year old former National teamer will take to the blocks Monday morning, and I anticipate both of their results equally. With the meet just two days away, I have yet to make my customary predictions. You will see those posted here tomorrow. With my picks almost finished, I want to share some of my biggest challenges in choosing Olympians.

First and foremost, what events will Michael Phelps and Ryan Lochte swim? The biggest challenge comes in the 400 IM, where Phelps remains vague about whether he will compete. Phelps indicated after his final meet in Austin that he had completed his final 400 IM, but Phelps likes making history; a swim in the 400 IM would guarantee Phelps the first shot to become the first man to ever win three Olympic golds in consecutive Olympics. Lochte remains the clear favorite as the two-time World champion, but Phelps has the capability to compete with two-time World silver medalist Tyler Clary. Clary has indicated that he will aim for a time in the 4:08-range, which I think Phelps can beat if he really wants to do the 400 IM. I don't think Phelps will swim the 400 IM, but he certainly might end up doing so. Regardless, I will go with the duo that has gone 1-2 at the Worlds twice now for the two spots: Lochte and Clary.

The men's 100 free shapes up as another interesting race, with or without Phelps and Lochte. I expect both men to compete in the event at least once to prove they deserve spots on the 400 free relay – which I believe they do – but I don't think either can afford to go all the way to the final. Controversy sparked when Phelps swam on the 400 free relay after not competing in the event at Trials. That could leave eight men in the pool of possibilities to swim on the relay in London. Keep an eye out for what the coaches do in that situation, if it does transpire as I expect.

Amanda Beard disappeared to much of the swimming community after her gold medal performance in the 200 breast in Athens eight years ago. Yeah, we knew she was coming back, but not a lot of people expected her to get on the Olympic team for a fourth time. But in the end, Beard touched the wall second in front of Caitlin Leverenz and ended up in Beijing. This time, though, Beard did not wait nearly a full Olympiad to make a statement. After the Pan Pacs wrapped up in 2010, Beard found herself on the Worlds team in both breaststrokes. Do I doubt her this time? Nope. I pick Amanda Beard to finish second to Rebecca Soni and go to London in the 200 breast.

A top-two finish in Omaha would make Beard another five-time Olympian. Dara Torres could leave Omaha a six-time Olympian, but she has far less margin for error. Torres will race the 50 free, a one-lap dash against the likes of Jessica Hardy, Amanda Weir, Kara Lynn Joyce, and Lara Jackson. Intense? Oh yes. Torres has the experience and mental edge to pull it off, but she is 45 years old. Certainly, Torres could become the oldest member of a U.S. Olympic swim team ever. This time, though, Torres is no lock or a favorite. She might make the team, and she might not. She has one event to swim this time, not two or three like she has in past Olympics. I know one thing: I trust experience. And I trust Dara Torres to get her hand on the wall.

How good is Missy Franklin? We are about to find out for sure. She is the clear favorite in the 200 back, and no one doubts she is one of the best in the country in the 100 back and both the 100 and 200 free. But can she beat Allison Schmitt in the 200 free? Natalie Coughlin in the 100 back? Dana Vollmer in the 100 free? Those are big picks. Can she maintain the level of improvement she showed last year and wow us again? In our chat yesterday, Tom Willdridge suggested that Franklin may not sparkle at Trials but will wow us once again on the biggest stage. Tough calls to make.

I never like to pick upsets. But in some events, like the men's 400 free and women's 200 fly, no one can agree on who will claim one or both Olympic slots. Every Trials, some swimmer emerges from international obscurity to go to the Olympics. Elaine Breeden, Christine Magnuson, and Scott Spann all fit that bill from 2008. Expect it or not, upsets will happen in Omaha. Could it be someone like Cammile Adams or Michael McBroom, those whose success has been more limited to the NCAA scene? How about high schoolers Ryan Murphy or Katie Ledecky? We will see shocks. Expect the unexpected. I will try to predict results, but we won't find out until the Trials get underway. Predicting is fun, but watching the upsets unfold will be the true excitement. We are 48 hours away from the first final in Omaha. Next up, the picks.

Friday, June 22, 2012

Trials 101

The time has come. Olympic Trials are upon us once more. I will never forget where I was four years ago when I watched Michael Phelps and Ryan Lochte battle to the end in an epic 400 IM in Omaha where both broke the existing world record. That paved the way for a fantastic meet which featured nine swims in the WR category, the formation of one of the strongest U.S. teams in recent memory, and excitement which gripped the nation more than ever before. Once again, the eyes of the United States descend upon Omaha for eight days of triumph and heartbreak, the likes of which swimming only sees once every four years. 14,000 people will see firsthand one of the greatest spectacles in sport, while millions more will watch Dan Hicks and Rowdy Gaines call the races on NBC. Expect greatness.

Instead of a traditional look-ahead to the Trials, I went with a different approach. Tom Willdridge of the Speed Endurance Swim Blog was nice enough to join me for a lengthy chat in which we discussed some of the big storylines regarding the meet. We started with some of the topics on everyone's lips and then moved into some of the other events coming up this week. Agree/disagree? Please leave comments below! Here's what we expect.
David Rieder
Thanks for participating, Tom. Let's get started right away: Phelps or Lochte?
Tom Willdridge
Just an easy question to star
t with then. Everything over the last few years would suggest Lochte, but seeing Phelps in Shanghai last year get so close in the 200m IM makes me lean towards him regaining the upper hand. I think if both men are at their peaks, Phelps wins.

Where do you stand?

David Rieder
If we look at the 200 IM, circumstances favor Phelps. Lochte has a nasty double that day - 200 back and then 200 IM a half hour later. I expect very fast times, no question about that. But I agree; I did not expect that kind of speed from Phelps last summer. I think it's fair to say that going into the meet, I pick Phelps in the 200 IM.

David Rieder
200 free I'm less sure. Lochte has been improving at a ridiculous rate the past few years, and I assume that will only continue. He's in the same situation Phelps was headed into 2008, training with Peter Vanderkaay and Conor Dwyer. I really can't decide between those two yet, but I think the time will beat what Lochte swam in Shanghai last year.

Tom Willdridge
Saying that, Phelps has still been over half a second faster than Lochte in a textile suit. So again, if both men are at 100% you'd have to favor Phelps

David Rieder
That's true, but I really expect both men to be in that 1:43-high range. But yeah, Phelps at his best is the best. Do we assume that he will be at his absolute best? I mean, I expect him to do well, but his very best is, well, REALLY good!

Tom Willdridge
Given his career to this point, you have to think he is as driven as he's ever been to ensure he goes out on top
Could Berens or Dwyer spring a surprise or is a relay spot their best hope?

David Rieder
For sure. Just a question of whether he had enough time to get in that kind of shape.
I've liked what I've seen from Berens, especially, this year, and I expect something fast, but I don't think he's under 1:45. A great swim won't really throw anyone else into the hunt for the individual spot.
As for Lochte, he could swim the 100 back ten minutes after the 200 free final. Does he try the double?

Tom Willdridge
Great question. The 100m Back is pretty crucial for a potential gold medal tally given the relay, as is the 100m Free. I've got a feeling he will go for it.
The 100m Back is also fairly open; he could qualify with a 52 high/53 low.

David Rieder
I don't know if he will (try), but I can't imagine him making it. Grevers, Thoman, and Plummer will be at their best - sub-53 is very possible for all three - and I don't think Lochte can get that low on ten minutes rest. We are talking one final and two commercial breaks in between. You basically have time to get out and go to the ready room.

Tom Willdridge
The manic grand prix schedules he has been doing and this brutal training regime might indicate that he's gearing up for a superhuman schedule.
He's the type of guy that seems to want to do something crazy/special.

David Rieder
That would be crazy; no question.
Let's change gears and talk about the other main focus of the general media at these Trials, Missy Franklin.
What do you expect from her?

Tom Willdridge
Ah, the opinion splitter. Is there a swimmer that divides opinion more than Franklin?
Let's start with the easier events to predict. The 200m Back should be a walk in the park, I expect her to also win the 100m Back and the 200m Freestyle in a tight battle with Allison Schmitt.

David Rieder
I agree, though I haven't decided if I will pick her first or second in the 100 back and 200 free.

Tom Willdridge
I also expect her to win the 100m Freestyle, but to not qualify for the 50m Free

David Rieder
What people can't seem to agree on is how much faster she's gotten. The way I look at it, she hasn't been racing so much this year and focused more on training. For that reason, I expect another lights-out performance just like we saw at the Worlds. I expect to be shocked again.

Tom Willdridge
I'm expecting fast, but not lights-out swims at Trials... I do expect her to get faster from Trials to Olympics given her age and her ability to get up for her races on the biggest stage

David Rieder
Fair enough. Let's go more in depth to those 100 races. I can't see Natalie Coughlin letting Franklin get away from her, but then again there's Elizabeth Pelton, Rachel Bootsma, and even someone like Megan Romano, and all three will be right in the mix.
I feel like it could be a two-, three-, four-, or even five-woman race.

Tom Willdridge
I think it would be a huge shock if it wasn't a Franklin-Coughlin 1-2, but Bootsma's 59.6 last year was certainly eye opening
Megan Romano seems to be heading into Trials with a fair bit of buzz about her, do you think it's justified?

David Rieder
I do; she has been quietly swimming lights-out this year. 1:00.1 and 54.1 in the 100 free a month out are good times! I think her real shot at making the team will come on relays.
Timewise, I can't see how Coughlin's American record is safe in that 100 back. Both Coughlin and Franklin were 59.1 last year, and Coughlin has been upping her training every year since she's been back. Thoughts?

Tom Willdridge
Agreed, Coughlin's time is on borrowed time... I think both women will be sub-59 at Trials.

David Rieder
How about the 100 free? It's tight at the top, but that race is still wide open, and I have no idea how fast any of those women can go.
Obviously, you have to believe Franklin can go a 53-low, and Vollmer and Coughlin have more in the tank than the 54.0s from last year, but who else can be in the mix?

Tom Willdridge
After her swim in Austin, Allison Schmitt has suddenly burst onto the scene alongside Romano. I like Jessica Hardy's chances too, who I think will have a great Trials... plus Amanda Weir seems to have a knack for making the US team

David Rieder
I agree. Probably 12 or more of the semi-finalists have a chance to make the team.

Tom Willdridge
Who wins the women's 100m Breast? Soni or Hardy?

David Rieder
If they race the 100 breast ten times, Soni wins nine. But the thing is, this could be the one that Hardy takes. I certainly don't think she will take both Trials and Olympics, and I will pick Soni for both. But Hardy has a shot, and she will be in the mix.
Both have 1:04.7-ish potential, but Soni is far more likely to convert.

Tom Willdridge
I've got a sneaky suspicion that Hardy will win the Trials. After everything that happened four years her hunger to impress/redress the balance will be enormous.
Plus, she has the added bonus of having beaten Soni already this year.
The way the last few years had been going Soni had been looking unbeatable.

David Rieder
I can see that. A very similar race to 2008 where Soni was the favorite and top qualifier and Hardy won from lane two. Like I said, I pick Soni, but I wouldn't be surprised.
How about the men's breaststrokes? Are we looking at Hansen and Shanteau taking both, or can someone else break it up?

Tom Willdridge
Hansen I think should make it, but I'm not so sure about Shanteau in the 100. Gangloff and Alexandrov on their day could take the second spot, my pick is Gangloff

David Rieder
Hansen is the favorite to win for sure, but that second spot could really be a tight race. I think Hansen has a 59-low in him, and I think that second swimmer will have to be right around that minute mark to make the team. Quite a change in a year.

Tom Willdridge
The 200 Breast could be even closer given Clark Burckle's 2:09 this yea; who are your picks?

David Rieder
Burckle's swim was great, but I think it's all Shanteau and Hansen. Shanteau's 2:09 at UltraSwim was big, given his times from that meet over the past few years, and Hansen has his confidence back in that 200. That's the big change for him lately.

Tom Willdridge
I think we might see Shanteau and Burckle take the 200m Breast spots.

David Rieder
Should be a good race for sure. Hansen will be out fast, and he'll have to hold off Shanteau and Burckle down the stretch. As we remember, that didn't turn out so good last time around.

Tom Willdridge
How about the sprint freestyles? Can anyone register a swim that will make Cielo or Magnussen sit up and take notice?

David Rieder
I'm not sure anyone can put up a time that can challenge Magnussen, but I expect a few 47s. Adrian has looked phenomenal this season, getting down to a 48-mid, and remember that he never got under 49 last year before he underperformed at Worlds. He's probably the only challenger for an individual medal in the 100 free - and probably the 50 too - assuming that Phelps won't go for the 100 free.

Tom Willdridge
I think Magnussen has put an end to that dream for Phelps. Can Lezak be a relay hero once again?

David Rieder
I have no idea what Jason Lezak can do. Hard to believe this won't be his last Trials. I think that, yes, he can make the relay, but will he? We will know a lot more about what he is capable of after prelims. Don't count this guy out; that's for sure. If he's in the final, watch out.

Tom Willdridge
I think Jimmy Feigen could be poised for a big swim in the 100 Free... but will there be enough firepower on the relay to challenge Australia and France?

David Rieder
I really think there will be. Like I said, Feigen and Berens look strong, and Weber-Gale underperformed on that relay last year. Lochte has a big swim in him. Again, though, not ready to make a prediction there until I see the race at Trials. No one should be naming race winners quite yet.

Tom Willdridge
You're a true patriot! Ok - Caitlin Leverenz. Talk to me, just how fast could she be, and can you see her getting past Kukors in the 200IM or Beisel in the 400IM?

David Rieder
I'd say that about any race! As for Leverenz, I really like her in the 200 IM. I do think she can take down Kukors in that, and I feel like she could be under 2:09. In the 400 IM, I still lean towards Beisel. She has been gearing up for Trials since Worlds last year, and she will throw down a big one to respond to what we've seen from Miley, Hosszu, and Rice over the past few months. Leverenz will be in the mix, and she is favorite for second, but I give her much more of a chance to win the 200 IM. I know you really like what she did at NCAAs - what do you expect?

Tom Willdridge
I think she is a real danger, her breaststroke is so much better than some of her rivals and she seems to be trending in the right direction as London approaches. I think there is still a lot more to see from her in the 400m IM

David Rieder
Definitely a lot more to see from her.

Tom Willdridge
Can you see any shocks in the women's medley events?

David Rieder
Not a whole lot. Beisel is there in that 200 IM, and you never know what someone like Katie Hoff will do event-wise, but I don't see anything too surprising happening there.

Tom Willdridge
Do you see Katie Hoff qualifying in an individual event?

David Rieder
I don't think so. I think training again with Paul Yetter does a lot for her confidence, but she looks like a piece of the 800 free relay at best. You never know, though; she would love to rebound after some letdowns the past couple years.

Tom Willdridge
She will be in the mix for one of the 400m Free spots with Schmitt, Sutton and of course Katie Ledecky. How do you think Ledecky will cope on the big stage?

David Rieder
I think Ledecky will swim well, but Schmitt and Sutton have the race to lose. I don't think Schmitt has lost this year, and of her main challengers, only Sutton has really been out of the races while she's been in a practice suit. As for times, I have no idea what they can do. 4:04-low, maybe a 4:03-high? Really don't know what to expect there.

Tom Willdridge
Schmitt scares me slightly (from a non-US perspective), she's underperformed recently but this year has been a different story. I think she is the one US swimmer that has a chance to get down to the Muffat, Adlington, Pellegrini level on the 400. Her improved speed could be a real weapon on both the 200 and 400.  
David Rieder
Certainly she has the best chance to do it this year. Remember, she was fourth in 2009 behind Pellegrini and the two Brits. She was closing on them too. Add in some speed and you have a weapon.
Thanks again to Tom for joining me. This Trials will be spectacular. Too spectacular to miss, actually. And won't. That's right, I will be in Omaha next Friday and Saturday to watch the fifth and sixth days of the Trials, and I cannot wait! Omaha will be Swim Geek heaven. If you will be in town, please let me know. Email me, or send me a message on Twitter or Facebook. And so, may the 2012 Olympic Swim Trials begin.

Saturday, June 2, 2012

Underdogs and Legacies

In the opening to NBC’s coverage of the Stanley Cup playoffs on Wednesday night, Bob Costas declared the past year one of underdogs in sports. Last September, the St. Louis Cardinals clinched a wildcard playoff spot on the last day of play in Major League Baseball, but only after they beat the Houston Astros and the Atlanta Braves lost to the Philadelphia Phillies. Had either game finished with the opposite result, the Braves would have made the playoffs instead of the Cardinals. Led by Albert Pujols, the Cardinals went on a run to the World Series and a world championship.

On New Years’ Day, in a do-or-die game and the last regular season NFL game of the year, the New York Giants beat the Dallas Cowboys to clinch a division title. Two weeks later, the Giants met the defending Super Bowl Champion Green Bay Packers in a playoff game. The 9-7 Giants crushed the 15-1 Packers on their way to a Super Bowl title. The Packers only lost one game all regular season? Too bad; history will forever remember the Giants as the winners of the 2011-12 NFL season; the Packers lost in their first playoff game.

This Stanley Cup final features the sixth-seeded New Jersey Devils taking on the eighth-seeded Los Angeles Kings. Who could have picked this matchup? One team will go down as this season’s champion, and that team will not be the top-seeded New York Rangers or Vancouver Canucks, eliminated by the Devils and Kings, respectively. Those two teams won the most games this year? That means nothing now. The Chicago Bulls finished the NBA season tied for the best record. Those same Bulls lost in the first round of the playoffs. Regular season accomplishments are great, but only the eventual winner matters.

Michael Phelps won gold after gold, setting world records day in and day out. The 2008 Olympics? Nope, I’m talking about the 2007 World Championships. Phelps set five world records inside the Rod Laver Arena in Melbourne and won seven gold medals. He did not earn a shot at an eighth when Ian Crocker false started in the prelims of the 400 medley relay before Phelps would have joined the team for the final. No doubt, that performance ranked as one of the greatest in sports history. In the end, though, it meant nothing. The world needed to see that performance on the Olympic level, where of course Phelps achieved perfection. Despite his World Championships performance, Phelps had achieved nothing until he went to Beijing. To the world, all that matters is the Olympics. Nothing mattered but his performance there.

Over the past four years since Beijing, I’ve watched Ryan Lochte emerge as the best swimmer in the world, Missy Franklin make quantum leaps each and every season, and Sun Yang announce himself as the next king of the distance events. They’ve won world titles and set records across the board, but as the world finally turns its ugly head towards the pool once again, what do those accolades mean? Absolutely nothing. The past four years have been a thrill ride for swim geeks like me, but to the rest of the world, nothing has happened. Michael Phelps equals swimming, most of the world believes, and some people may remember Natalie Coughlin, Rebecca Soni, or Ryan Lochte from Beijing. Dana Vollmer? Nope. Matt Grevers? I doubt it.

At the 2004 Olympics in Athens, Kosuke Kitajima swept the breaststroke events, beating out world record-holder Brendan Hansen in both. For the next three years, though, Hansen re-established his dominance, winning three world titles and lowering both world records. Kitajima, meanwhile, struggled to qualify for some of Japan’s national teams and continually played second-fiddle to Hansen. His lone title came at the 2007 Worlds in the 200 breast, when Hansen pulled out sick.

In 2008, though, Kitajima broke Hansen’s world record in the 200 breast two months before Beijing, and at U.S. Olympic Trials, Hansen watched two of his training partners swim right past him on the last lap to earn Olympic bids in the event, which Kitajima ended up winning. Hansen finished fourth in the 100 breast in Beijing as Kitajima broke the world record. Hansen’s domination over the past three years meant nothing now; Kitajima had won both breaststroke titles again and staked his claim as the greatest breaststroker of all time.

Since Beijing, Kitajima has layed low, other than a sparkling performance at the 2010 Pan Pacs. Daniel Gyurta has claimed two world titles in the 200 breast, and Kitajima lost the 100 breast at Worlds last year by almost a second and a half to the late Alexander Dale Oen. However, none of that will matter if Kitajima wins either event again to become the first ever to win three Olympic titles in one event.

Remember how Leisel Jones did not lose the 200 breast between Athens and Beijing? Well, Rebecca Soni chased her down in Beijing to end that streak, and she reigns as the 200 breast Olympic champion. Grant Hackett lost the mile once between 1996 and 2008 and posted a still-standing Olympic record in the prelims in Beijing. Doesn’t matter, because Ous Mellouli won the gold medal. Kate Ziegler won World titles in the 800 and 1500 in both 2005 and 2007 and took down Janet Evans’ legendary world record in the 1500. Most saw it as a matter of time before Ziegler took down the 800 mark as well. But in Beijing, Rebecca Adlington won the gold and lowered that world record; Ziegler did not make a single Olympic final.

This is an Olympic year, and Olympic Trials are this month. Over the next ten weeks, legacies will be written as the accomplishments of the past four years mean next to nothing. A swimmer could come out of nowhere to claim an Olympic medal, even gold, and that swimmer will go down as an Olympic medalist. A two-time world champion in multiple events that fails to make an impact at the Olympics? Here come the media labels of choker. The regular season has been going on for nearly four years. Time for the playoffs to begin. The athletes have set themselves up for a run at Olympic glory. Now, we see what they are made of. History will be written, and legacies will be crafted at the Games of the Thirtieth Olympiad.

Sunday, March 18, 2012

Men's NCAAs Predictions

Women's NCAAs came to a close yesterday, and it's time to move on to the men's. I am on a big run with predicting, and I don't want to mess up now! For the women's meet, I correctly predicted 13 out of 18 event winners, and I nailed which teams would finish in the top-ten, picking the final positions of seven of them correctly (not counting Auburn finishing in a tie with Tennessee for seventh, rather than eighth, as I predicted). I underestimated USC, as they leapfrogged Stanford and Arizona from my picks. Going back a little bit further, at last year's men's meet I picked places 1-7 and 10 perfectly, and I just switched Michigan and Virginia in the final standings. Let's see how I can do this year.

Thursday:
200 Free Relay
1. Auburn
2. Stanford
3. Cal

500 Free
1. Bobby Bollier, Stanford
2. Connor Jaeger, Michigan
3. Chad La Tourette, Stanford

200 IM
1. Dave Nolan, Stanford
2. Cory Chitwood, Arizona
3. Martin Liivamagi, Cal

50 Free
1. Jimmy Feigen, Texas
2. Vlad Morozov, USC
3. Adam Small, Arizona

400 Medley Relay
1. Arizona
2. Cal
3. Stanford

Friday:
200 Medley Relay
1. Arizona
2. Auburn
3. Texas

400 IM
1. Kyle Whitaker, Michigan
2. Austen Thompson, Arizona
3. Matt Thompson, Stanford

100 Fly
1. Tom Shields, Cal
2. Dan Madwed, Michigan
3. Mathias Gydesen, Cal

200 Free
1. Dax Hill, Texas
2. Dimitri Colupaev, USC
3. David Karasek, UVa

100 Breast
1. Kevin Cordes, Arizona
2. Nolan Koon, Cal
3. Kelley Wyman, Arizona

100 Back
1. Tom Shields, Cal
2. Dave Nolan, Stanford
3. Cory Chitwood, Arizona

800 Free Relay
1. Michigan
2. Texas
3. UVa

1650 Free
1. Chad La Tourette, Stanford
2. Michael McBroom, Texas
3. Sean Ryan, Michigan

200 Back
1. Cory Chitwood, Arizona
2. David Nolan, Stanford
3. Matt Thompson, Stanford

100 Free
1. Vlad Morozov, USC
2. Jimmy Feigen, Texas
3. Dax Hill, Texas

200 Breast
1. Nick D’Innocenzo, Texas
2. Carl Mickelson, Arizona
3. Eric Friedland, Texas

200 Fly
1. Tom Shields, Cal
2. Bobby Bollier, Stanford
3. Dan Madwed, Michigan

400 Free Relay
1. Texas
2. Cal
3. Stanford

The Top Ten:
1. Texas
2. Stanford
3. Arizona
4. Cal
5. Michigan
6. USC
7. Auburn
8. Florida
9. Georgia
10. Ohio State

Texas looked horrible all-season. Their stars have lagged behind at the Texas Invite, in the dual meet with Arizona, and again at the Big-12 Championships. Eddie Reese is one of the best coaches in the world, and he will have them ready to perform. I went into the predictions unsure of whether to put Stanford or Arizona second, but I ended up picking too much Stanford in the top-three to deny the Cardinal. Defending champs Cal lost a big senior class, but Tom Shields is carrying this team on his back. Look for a big performance from him, and if my picks hold true, he will be swimmer of the year. Down year for the SEC, and I think no team finishes higher than seventh. We will see how this all shakes out next week in Federal Way, Washington.

Saturday, March 10, 2012

Women's NCAA Predictions

March Madness is here at last! No, not endless hours of college hoops but the NCAA Swimming Championships coming up in the next two weeks, starting with the women next week in Auburn, Alabama. I've been slightly out of the loop the past few months, but my guess is as good as anyone's when it comes to who takes home the college crowns. Last year, I picked the top-three teams dead on, as Cal, Georgia, and USC went 1-2-3. I fell off a bit towards the end, so we'll see what I can do this year. Let's start with the individual events.

Thursday, March 15:
200 Free Relay
1. Stanford
2. Auburn
3. Arizona

500 Free
1. Amber McDermott, Georgia
2. Wendy Trott, Georgia
3. Alyssa Anderson, Arizona

200 IM
1. Caitlin Leverenz, Cal
2. Katinka Hosszu, USC
3. Elizabeth Beisel, Florida

50 Free
1. Arianna Vanderpool-Wallace, Auburn
2. Liv Jensen, Cal
3. Margo Geer, Arizona

400 Medley Relay
1. Cal
2. Arizona
3. Tennessee

Friday, March 16:
200 Medley Relay
1. Cal
2. Tennessee
3. Arizona

400 IM
1. Elizabeth Beisel, Florida
2. Katinka Hosszu, USC
3. Caitlin Leverenz, Cal

100 Fly
1. Sara Isokovic, Cal
2. Sam Woodword, Stanford
3. Jenny Connolly, Tennessee

200 Free
1. Megan Romano, Georgia
2. Karlee Bispo, Texas
3. Liv Jensen, Cal

100 Breast
1. Breeja Larson, Texas A&M
2. Kasey Carlson, USC
3. Ellyn Baumgardner, Arizona

100 Back
1. Cindy Tran, Cal
2. Jenny Connolly, Tennessee
3. Megan Romano, Georgia

800 Free Relay
1. Georgia
2. Cal
3. Florida

Saturday, March 17:
1650 Free
1. Wendy Trott, Georgia
2. Haley Anderson, USC
3. Stephanie Peacock, UNC

200 Back
1. Elizabeth Beisel, Florida
2. Maya Dirado, Stanford
3. Dominque Bouchard, Missouri

100 Free
1. Arianna Vanderpool-Wallace, Auburn
2. Liv Jensen, Cal
3. Margo Geer, Arizona

200 Breast
1. Caitlin Leverenz, Cal
2. Breeja Larson, Texas A&M
3. Haley Spencer, Minnesota

200 Fly
1. Katinka Hosszu, USC
2. Cammile Adams, Texas A&M
3. Sara Isokovic, Cal

400 Free Relay
1. Stanford
2. Arizona
3. Auburn

The Top Ten:
1. Cal
2. Georgia
3. Stanford
4. Arizona
5. USC
6. Texas A&M
7. Tennessee
8. Auburn
9. Texas
10. Florida

I pick Cal to win the title for the second straight year, their third in the last four years. Leverenz, Tran, Isokovic, and Jensen will score big points individually and on relays. If Georgia had Allison Schmitt this year, they may be in the driver's seat for the title, but that loss to redshirt will throw away too many points. Stanford is consistent across the board, led by Maya Dirado, Arizona has monster relays, and USC has Katinka Hosszu and Kasey Carlson. Beyond that, it's really a toss-up for the rest of the top-ten, but I do think that these will be the ten teams that make the list.

Sunday, January 15, 2012

Top Ten Swimmers of 2011

2011 has come to a close, and 2012 has begun, but I still have to reveal my top-ten swimmers of 2011. Inspired by Speed Endurance’s top-51 rankings, I will do the same, but I am only going to take a look at the top-ten swimmers I saw this year. In general, my list is similar to Tom Willdridge, with nine of the same ten swimmers, but some changes in order reflect my different criteria for picking my swimmers. My list is almost entirely dependent on performances at the World Championships in Shanghai, while other international competitions will hold some weight, and times posted elsewhere will have minimal significance.

Check out the Speed Endurance top-51 lists, and compare that top-ten to mine!
No. 51 – No. 42
No. 41 – No. 32
No. 31 – No. 22
No. 21 – No. 11
No. 10 – No. 1

10. Cesar Cielo, Brazil
Cielo had a nice bounce-back year after losing both the 50 and 100 free at Pan Pacs to Nathan Adrian. Although he did not know if he’d even be able to swim at Worlds until the week before, he came to Shanghai ready to get down the pool fast. While his times in the 50 fly and 50 free were not his best, he still obliterated everyone else. Cielo has put himself into ideal position to chase his second-consecutive Olympic title in the 50 free, having not lost an important race since 2008. He finished fourth in the 100 free before posting a 47.84 at the Pan Ams. Holding on for the full 100 has been a challenge since the tech suits were banned, but Cielo made big progress towards that mark in 2011.

9. Dana Vollmer, USA
Dana Vollmer fits in at number nine on both my list and that of Speed Endurance. Vollmer started things off right for the U.S. team at Worlds. She swam under 57 and almost beat her own American record in prelims before putting up a stellar 56.47 in semi-finals and edging Alicia Coutts for the gold in the final. Less than two hours after that 56.47, Vollmer swam the anchor leg for the silver medal-winning U.S. 400 free relay, and later in the week, she sealed the deal for the medley relay and setting up a new American record. She leads Team USA again into 2012.

8. Federica Pellegrini, Italy
Again, I agree with Tom on the number eight pick. Pellegrini raced tough in Shanghai, obliterating Rebecca Adlington and Camille Muffat for the win in the 400 free and the first textile swim under 4:02. Despite holding the world record and reigning as the World and Olympic champion, she went into the final of the 200 free as a clear underdog behind Femke Heemskerk. Swimming from the back of the pack, Pellegrini overtook a fading Heemskerk for the win. She will face tough challenges at the Olympics, especially in the 200 free, but she proved in 2011 that she is clutch.

7. Alexander Dale Oen, Norway
Dale Oen led qualifiers going into the final of the 100 breast in Shanghai, but many still considered him an underdog to Kosuke Kitajima. The two-time Olympic champion, Kitajima had edged Dale Oen for the top time in the world in 2010. In the final, Dale Oen jumped out to a huge lead and won in 58.71, falling just short of Brenton Rickard’s world record of 58.71. The media lauded Dale Oen for winning at a time when Norway had been devastated with attacks of terrorism. Dale Oen’s swim was so impressive that he swam slower in the 50 breast then his opening split in the 100 breast. Illness derailed chances at another gold in the 50 breast and forced him to withdraw from the 200 breast.

6. James Magnussen, Australia
This young sprinter from down under started off the year with some fireworks, posting a 48.29 in the 100 free at his National championships, shocking the entire swimming community. Still, he was an outside shot for a medal, at best, in Shanghai, until he came down with pneumonia in the weeks before the meet. By that point, no one expected much from him, and I had even heard rumors that he would withdraw from the meet. The last thing anyone expected was a 47.49 lead-off leg in the 400 free relay. After leading Australia to gold there, Magnussen carved up the individual 100 free field to secure another gold and almost ran down Nathan Adrian in the medley relay, earning Aussie silver. Magnussen enters 2012 as the clear favorite for the Olympic gold in the 100 free, but questions still remain as to his Olympic ambitions in the 50 free and on Australia’s 800 free relay. Despite talking up his 200 potential, he has done nothing to prove that he is a legitimate threat to help Australia earn a medal in that relay. So far, his only true successes have been in the 100.

5. Rebecca Soni, USA
Soni has been the model of consistency over the past two years, dominating her stroke unlike anyone else in the world has over that span. She has not lost a 200 breast since the 2009 Worlds, and has only lost one 100 breast long course during that time period. This year, she was almost than a second in front of Jessica Hardy in the world rankings in the 100 breast and had even more of a cushion in the 200 breast. She has consistently thrown down lights-out times in-season and backed it up in the big meets. She also provided a key leg for the dominating U.S. women’s medley relay in Shanghai. Over the past few years, though, Soni has had one goal in mind: win Olympic gold and break world records. This is the year when she can pull it off.

4. Michael Phelps, USA
People criticized the greatest of all time. I said that Phelps wouldn’t be ready for Shanghai. But at that meet, Michael Phelps showed some clutch in winning four golds, two silvers, and a bronze. Many predicted that Phelps wouldn’t medal in the 200 free, but he jumped out fast and held off the likes of Paul Biedermann and Park Tae Hwan for the silver medal. They said he would lose the 200 fly, an event which he hadn’t lost for nearly a decade, but he blasted past Takeshi Matsuda on the final lap for the win. They said he couldn’t challenge Ryan Lochte in the 200 IM, but he went all the way to the finish and beat his best time from the 2008 Olympics. The American relays leaned on the efforts of Michael Phelps. Quite a performance for someone not at peak form. Phelps has swam great since those Worlds, and he is building up to a grand finale this summer.

3. Missy Franklin, USA
Missy was the biggest surprise of 2011. Earning a spot on the U.S. 400 free relay in prelims, she blasted a 52.99 split in the final to give the Americans a chance against the Netherlands. On day five, however, she moved into the world’s limelight. After a stunning bronze medal in the 50 back, Franklin led off the 800 free relay in 1:55.06, by far the top time of the year, on the way to a relay gold. Entering the meet as a medal contender in the 200 back, Franklin entered the event as the clear favorite for gold. She twice lowered the American record and swam the third-fastest time ever to win gold. That same day, she anchored Natalie Coughlin, Soni, and Vollmer to a dominating medley relay win. Just days later, Franklin flew to Palo Alto for U.S. Nationals, where she posted the fifth-fastest time in the world in the 100 back and a time that would have won bronze in the 100 free. Perhaps Franklin would be even higher on this list if she had the opportunity to swim more events at Worlds. Look out London.

2. Sun Yang, China
This young Chinese superstar made history in 2011, lowering Grant Hackett’s longstanding world record in the 1500 free with an epic final two laps to come back from two seconds behind world record-pace. I name this swim the undisputed top swim of 2011. Sun also took the gold in the 800 and silver in the 400. Sun went into the 400 free final as the top qualifier but finished well behind Park Tae Hwan for the silver. Despite this, Sun still holds the top two times of the year in the 400 free. His 3:40.29 came up just shy of Biedermann’s 3:40.07 world record. Still, he put that swim up at the wrong time, at Chinese Nationals two months after Worlds. Speed Endurance claims that this swim puts him over the top for number one on this list. I disagree; the best swimmer in the world doesn’t come up short in a World Championships final. Sun Yang has to settle for number two.

1. Ryan Lochte, USA
Ryan Lochte is the top swimmer in the world again this year. Lochte ran down Michael Phelps for a win over the fastest field ever in the 200 free, before edging Phelps two days later in the 200 IM. More importantly, Lochte broke the first world record in the long course pool in 18 months, his 1:54.00 edging the 1:54.10 he swam in 2009 in Rome. He took almost a full second off his personal best in the 200 back to destroy the likes of Ryosuke Irie and Tyler Clary before anchoring the U.S. in a comeback win in the 800 free relay. He finished his week off with a four-second victory in the 400 IM with promise of going much faster next year on the event on the first day instead of the last. Lochte holds a huge edge on the rest of the world in 2012, and while he faces major challenges, particularly in Phelps, expect him to step up and swim better than ever.

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

The Apogee of Sport

Surprise; I’m not dead! I’ve been absent from the blog for awhile, but I’m still just as involved in swimming as ever. Swimming is building up to the Olympic climax this summer, but I honestly haven’t felt as if I have had any comments to add to the various conversations as of late. Don’t worry, though; I’m coming back soon with my top ten swimmers of 2011. Inspired by Speed Endurance’s Top-51 list, I will compare my top ten with those that Tom Willdridge picked and explain why I disagree with him for almost every place.

In the meantime, I had one particularly neat experience lately that I would like to share. No, I didn’t go to a swim meet and watch up-and-comers or even Olympians compete, like I have before. On New Years Day, I went to an NFL game between the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys at MetLife Stadium, just outside of New York City. I have family in the area, and the Giants have always been my favorite NFL team, but to get the chance to see them play in person was amazing. This game carried special significance: the winner would win the NFC East division and make the playoffs. The loser was going home.

The game was originally scheduled to be played during the afternoon of January 1, one of 16 games around the country on the slate for the day. With the importance of the matchup, NBC moved the game to prime time, making it the final game of the NFL regular season in real time. Swim fans will see some déjà vu in this situation, after NBC moved the Olympic swimming finals in Beijing to the morning to show them live in prime time in America. For fans, a late start could be a bit obnoxious, but I think it made the experience that much more special. NBC acknowledged that everything was on the line.

Growing up, I always watched the Olympics and loved watching the Olympics. While swimming has always been my favorite sport to watch, each period of two weeks every two years I cannot keep my eyes off of the TV. At the center of NBC’s Olympic coverage for each Games, summer and winter, is Bob Costas. Bob Costas sits at the apex of sports media worldwide. When I walked into MetLife Stadium, across the field sat a black tent; indeed, Bob Costas sat in that tent, anchoring NBC’s Football Night in America on that rainy night. The swim geek in the same arena as Bob Costas. Wow.

The stadium itself is a metal maze, and for this game, it was lit up in blue. 80,000 rowdy fans, dressed in blue and waiving white Giants towels, packed the stadium to create an atmosphere unlike any I have witnessed before. When the Cowboys marched out, boos filled the arena, but the home team ran onto the field amid fireworks and some of the loudest noise imaginable. The energy-packed arena exploded when quarterback Eli Manning threw a 74-yard touchdown pass to Victor Cruz and when the Giants defense forced a Cowboys stop on third or fourth down and especially when Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo threw an interception. The Giants led 21-0 at halftime, but as the Cowboys crawled back into the game, with the score standing at 21-14 with ten minutes left, every Giants fan, including me, felt a nervous feeling in the pit of the stomach.

Fortunately, the Giants held on to win, 31-14, and make it to the playoffs. As a fan, I loved the result, but the experience was something amazing that I cannot forget. A huge stadium with a roaring crowd. Athletes marching out to fireworks. A long season of hard work coming down to one last chance. Nerves, excitement, exuberance, and crushing defeat. All that sports provides coming down to one last shot.

Where can we find this in swimming? The Olympic Trials. This summer in Omaha, eight athletes will march out in 26 unique finals and put it all on the line. Thousands roaring, with millions more glaring at the TV at home in anxiety. Joy and pride for those who make it, leaving those who don’t in tears. A month later, those select few athletes who make it will test themselves against the world’s best, just as the New York Giants must now do in the NFL playoffs. They seek to win a Super Bowl, but each step brings infinitely more challenges, just like the U.S. Olympic Team will face. This summer will highlight the best swimming and sport in general has to offer. Football gets these moments several times a year, but swimming gets its once every four years. Fellow swim geeks, let’s relish those moments. Bring on 2012.

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Palmetto Thanksgiving Turkey Invite

As anyone who regularly reads this blog knows, I don’t write about my own personal swimming experiences a lot. I am passionate about all levels of swimming, but here I like to focus on the top tier of competition and the build-up to next summer’s Olympics. Today, with not much news coming out of the swimming world right now, I am changing gears to discuss a meet I competed in last weekend, the Palmetto Thanksgiving Turkey Invite at the University of South Carolina in Columbia, SC. I came home with a mixed bag of results and some fond memories, including meeting Gamecock star Michael Flach, who is redshirting to train for Olympic Trials. However, five moments stood out as truly amazing.

First, I want to give some context on my swimming career. I swim for the newly-formed LTP Racing Club in Charleston, SC, and I specialize in mid-distance free and backstroke. I have been dropping time consistently for years, but I feel like I had a breakout at my high school State meet two months ago, where I swam 4:57.11 to cut almost 15 seconds off my 500 best time. Last year, I won that race in a 5:11, defeating an extremely talented teammate who was sick at the time. This year, I took a surprising lead at the 100 and held it through the 450, but I ended up second as both my teammate and I broke the previous state record. Another big moment came this summer at my Long Course State Championships, when I made consolation finals in both backstroke races, the first time I had ever earned a second swim at State meet.

Palmetto used an interesting format for a three-day meet, with finals on Saturday only. With my 4:57, I had been seeded into the top heat of the 500 (which would swim with finals), and I also qualified for the A-final in the 100 back. I am a pretty big swim geek (obviously), and I have watched a lot of meets where top athletes get to walk out with music for their championship finals. Never have I gotten such an experience. That is, never until this weekend. When Palmetto’s coach told me that I would get to walk out, I literally went nuts. To use a cliché expression, I felt like a kid in a candy shop. Definitely not behavior that one would normally associate with a 17 year old senior in high school, but for someone who has thus far had a relatively modest career in the pool, it meant a lot to walk out for those finals.

Like with most committed swimmers, I try to be at as many practices as possible, but that doesn’t always pan out. I missed at least a day or two of club practice per week during high school season, and I occasionally have school commitments that don’t allow me to swim. One teammate, however, has literally had perfect attendance the last four months since August 1, when we started back to practice following a week break after our Long Course State Championships. This particular teammate is not the most talented, but he works hard every day, and he is chopping huge chunks in practice and meets. He just aged up to the 13-14 age group, and he did not yet have any State qualifying times when we left for Columbia.

He swam the 1000 free on Friday night, and I was at the end of his lane counting for him and watching splits come up on the scoreboard. I checked the State cut just before the race, and I saw 11:36.49. As the race progressed, he was holding consistent and fast splits, 34-mid to 35-flat per 50, but as he turned for his last 50, I thought he would be just a bit shy of the cut. However, he came home in 32.16 for a final time of 11:36.17. At that point, I screamed so loud that my voice was hoarse for the next couple days. Simply put, that was hard work paying off, and I know how much he deserved that.

Another of my teammates has had a rough road the past few months. She struggled during high school season to do get to a lot of club practices, and she did not drop time in any of her events at a meet two weeks ago in Greenville, SC. Meanwhile, she was struggling outside of the pool and contemplated a break from swimming. At this meet, she had swum some alright races along with others she didn’t want to remember. On Sunday, she swam the 200 free first. From our team’s seating area, I was getting ready for my 200 and watching the scoreboard. I saw her splits, and it was obvious that she was going to go a best time. But she didn’t cut off a couple tenths or even a second. 4.48 seconds. I ran over to the end of the pool, and she had a huge smile from ear-to-ear and gave me a big hug. She no longer has doubts about swimming.

I have two more favorite moments from this weekend, and both involve a friend from Columbia that I met last year through high school swimming. When I won the 500 then, he finished third in 5:13.82. He then played basketball during short course season, spending less time in the water and swimming at only one meet. During long course, he kept coming up short of State qualifying times, but he assumed that he would be able to use a qualifying time for the 1500 before realizing just two weeks before that the cut had expired. He did not swim at Long Course State, and he had a rough high school season as well, finishing third again in the 500 but going as slow as 5:15.

He also swam at the meet this weekend, and, as he was not in my heat for the 500, I watched. As always, he took the race out hard, and I kept a close eye on his splits. His best time was still that 5:13.82 from high school State more than a year earlier. As he was about to finish, I ran behind his lane, watching the scoreboard closely. His time: 5:13.75. A year of struggling and forced patience finally behind, he finally cleared the barrier of going a best time in the 500 free, and I couldn’t have been happier for him. He still does not have his State cut, but he is tapering for a meet in Greensboro next month, and I’m confident he will get it there.

The final event of the meet was the 400 IM, and this same friend and I were both up to swim. Before that, I had only swum one 400 IM, when I went 4:51 last month. The State cut was a 4:47.99, and, despite throwing away my chance at a cut in the 200 free minutes before, I was very confident I could get down to that mark. My friend, meanwhile, was going for his first State cut in more than two years. I swam first, and he joined my teammates in rooting hard for me. I touched the wall in 4:45.15 and pumped my fists. I then dealt with a mob of excited teammates and my friend attacking me.

Two heats later, my friend was on the blocks. Having not swum this race short course in years, he easily disposed of his competitors, and I had my eyes glued to the scoreboard. He and I are at about the same level in butterfly and freestyle, and I am faster in backstroke, but I am truly awful at breaststroke, and he is far better. He took the race out fast and outsplit me on every 50 for the first 300. Usually, I don’t like losing to him, but I was so excited. He touched in 4:40.09, and I was congratulating him before he could look at the scoreboard. He will be at State meet, and that moment was just awesome.

Obviously, for some people, these moments from a small swim meet would seem insignificant, and even in the grand scheme of this season, they probably are. However, swimming for me is about more than personal improvement or goals; rather, I live for those memories of watching my friends go best times and get their first State cuts and overcome their frustrations. Each season in swimming is a journey, and those moments are little reminders interspliced throughout months of training that make everything worth it. I love swimming, and I love when other people love swimming too.

Saturday, October 29, 2011

The Ian Thorpe Comeback Begins

Next weekend, Ian Thorpe will make his long-awaited comeback at the Singapore stop of the World Cup. The swimming community has awaited this moment since whispers of a Thorpe comeback started popping up in the spring of 2010. Thorpe quickly denied such rumors, but the publicity never went away, and Thorpe stepped up to announce his intentions on February 2, 2011. However, due to FINA rules, Thorpe had to wait nine months before he could race once more, and that waiting period expires this week, just before Thorpe steps up once again. Supposedly focusing on the 100 and 200 free in his comeback, abandoning his former “baby” the 400 free, Thorpe surprised many when he announced his entries for the Singapore meet – the 100 IM and 100 fly!

In his previous incarnation as a mid-distance legend, Thorpe simply dominated freestyle races. This blog won’t list all of medals he’s won; check out his accomplishments on his Wikipedia page. In short, Thorpe burst out onto the international scene at age 15 with his win in the 400 free at the 1998 World Championships, eating away Grant Hackett’s huge lead to record a narrow triumph at the finish. From that point, Thorpe dominated world swimming and remained the undisputed best swimmer in the world for five years. No one dreamed of matching his accomplishments.

When Thorpe swam at the 2003 World Championships in Barcelona, however, he found himself overshadowed. An 18 year old from Baltimore had stolen the limelight, setting world records in each of the individual events he swam. For that meet, Thorpe elected to add the 200 IM to his regular program of events. Weeks before Barcelona, Phelps had lowered an eight year old world record of 1:58.16 to 1:57.94 at the Santa Clara Grand Prix. In the second of two semi-final heats, Phelps swam from lane four and lowered the record again, this time to 1:57.52, while Thorpe swam out in lane eight and snuck into the final as the fifth qualifier. The next day, Phelps stepped up, having just set a new world record in the 100 fly semi-finals, to race Thorpe for the first time head-to-head in a major final.



Saying that Phelps owned this race is an understatement. Thorpe won silver, 3.5 seconds behind, setting an Australian record that would last until the 2009 World Championships, where Leith Brodie destroyed that mark in a polyurethane suit. Thorpe would never swim this race again in a major competition, focusing on the freestyle events at the 2004 Olympics and retiring a couple years later, having never again swum in a major competition. Now, he returns to the World Cup to swim events he has never even swum on the major stage!

When I read about Thorpe’s Singapore surprise, I assumed that he was merely using the two off-events to tune up and get back into racing without much pressure. He would then build off those performances when he swam the same two events at the Beijing stop before adding the 100 free for the final stop in Tokyo, taking baby steps towards his goal of qualifying in the freestyle events, at least in relays, for the London Olympics. However, an article written by Geoff Huegill, he explored for the first time the possibility that Thorpe might be preparing to take the 100 fly seriously. In this article posted by the Herald Sun, Huegill noted that Gennadi Touretski, the man responsible for Alexander Popov and now training Thorpe, has a tendency to train swimmers for fly and shows a bit of anxiety at the prospect of taking on Thorpe in that event at Australia’s Olympic Trials.

Huegill’s words reminded me of Thorpe’s one excursion into the butterfly and IM, his race with Phelps in Barcelona. In that race, he stayed surprisingly close to Phelps on the fly, especially considering that Phelps set world records in both butterfly events at that meet. His backstroke was solid (Thorpe did win silver in the Commonwealth Games in the 100 back in 2002), and breaststroke lost him a lot of ground to the other silver medal contenders, such as Massi Rosolino. A 1:59 is no longer a competitive time on the world stage, but a 100 IM in short course will do a better job hiding his weakness on breaststroke. In the 100 fly, he could challenge Huegill’s times from the World Cup stops last week in Europe, which would legitimately open the door for him in the 100 fly down the line.

My expectations for Thorpe in the 100 fly and 100 IM have risen, and I’m looking forward to seeing how he handles the world stage. His 100 fly could get to the point where he steps up with a legitimate shot at London, and the Australian Olympic Trials would feature three legends in Thorpe, Huegill, and Michael Klim (though by no means do I think Thorpe or Klim will have an easy time getting past Australia’s new generation of flyers). However, if Thorpe falls flat in his 100 fly and 100 IM, fans have nothing to worry; Thorpe came back to race freestyle, and I believe that in freestyle, he will qualify to swim in the London Olympics.

Sunday, October 23, 2011

Fran Crippen: One Year Later

On January 3, I posted a blog discussing the long-lasting mark Fran Crippen left on our sport. The world remembers Crippen as an amazing swimmer and caring man, as his sister Claire discussed on Friday’s edition of the Morning Swim Show. He was a fierce competitor and a favorite to make the U.S. Olympic team in Open Water for 2012. When the top Open Water swimmers arrived in Fort Lauderdale for the National Championships this June, Crippen’s absence created a major hole in the competition. The top two finishers at that meet would earn berths for the World Championships in Shanghai and a chance to make the London Olympics, as the top ten from that meet automatically qualified.

In Fort Lauderdale, Eva Fabian and Christine Jennings earned the women’s spots bound for Shanghai. Both swam in that same race in Dubai in which Crippen lost his life, and neither finished the race, as both ended up in the hospital suffering from dehydration. On the men’s side, Alex Meyer and Sean Ryan qualified for the World Championships. Meyer, especially, had a connection to Crippen. Months after Crippen turned around to help Meyer to shore when the latter became ill during the 10k at Pan Pacs, Meyer led the search for Crippen’s body when his friend failed to finish in Dubai.

In Shanghai, Fabian and Jennings both failed to make the cut for the Olympic team, but the next day, Meyer finished in fourth place in the men’s race, earning himself a ticket to London. Afterwards, Meyer stated that while he would have liked Ryan to qualify to make it two Americans headed to London, he believed the second spot needed to remain open for Crippen, demonstrating the impact Crippen made on American Open Water swimming. That impact spread to the pool; at both the 2010 Short Course and 2011 Long Course World Championships, the American team wore the letters “FC” on their warm-up jackets.

When I last wrote about Fran Crippen, I discussed the impact Fran had on the formation of my new swim team, the LTP Racing Club. My coach swam with Fran at the University of Virginia and stayed in contact in the years following. He used a quote from Fran on the back of our first team t-shirts. Fran’s connection with the team goes deeper; he died the very same day as the team swam its very first meet. Since then, he has been our inspiration, our inspiration to keep dreaming and keep pushing towards new heights in and out of the pool, and our inspiration to honor him on the one-year anniversary of his death.

In Claire Crippen’s interview on Friday, she spoke of the week after Fran died. At that point, she swam for Virginia, while Teresa continues to swim at Florida. Back at home almost immediately, both realized just two days later that Fran would have wanted them back in the pool, and Tuesday morning, a mere 72 hours following Fran’s death, the two went to practice at Germantown Academy with their old coach Richard Shoulberg. After Fran’s death, the two had expressed doubts about continuing their swimming careers, but Fran’s passion and excitement for swimming encouraged them to get back in the water and keep striving towards their goals, Claire towards her final ACC Championships and NCAA Champions and Teresa towards the World Championships, where she made the semi-finals of the 200 fly.

Thus, the memory of Fran Crippen exemplifies the true nature of swimming: passion. This includes the passion to get up at 4:45 in the morning every day all summer to swim; the passion to push passed preconceived limits with sights set on becoming the best swimmer one can be; and the passion to support your friends and teammates after tough races or rough patches in life with the promise of improvement down the road. Whenever passion for swimming may dwindle, look no further for inspiration than Fran Crippen. Fran left behind hopes of a safer sport, one where no athlete will ever again lose his life in competition, and he provides the fuel for Alex Meyer, Teresa Crippen, the LTP Racing Club, and swimmers around the world to live their dreams.

Sunday, September 18, 2011

Olympic Trials Predictions

More than nine months still remain before the 2012 Olympic Trials, but I have already begun thinking about who will leave that meet and head to London on the Olympic Team. As I like to do, I am sharing my early predictions for that meet. Of course, I cannot predict what young swimmers will breakout in the early part of the new year, so I predict a team full of veterans to cross the Atlantic next summer. Here we go.

Women:

50 Free
1. Jessica Hardy
2. Dara Torres

100 Free
1. Missy Franklin
2. Natalie Coughlin
3. Dana Vollmer
4. Jessica Hardy
5. Amanda Weir
6. Kara Lynn Joyce

200 Free
1. Missy Franklin
2. Allison Schmitt
3. Katie Hoff
4. Dana Vollmer
5. Dagny Knutson
6. Morgan Scroggy

400 Free
1. Chloe Sutton
2. Allison Schmitt

800 Free
1. Kate Ziegler
2. Chloe Sutton

100 Back
1. Missy Franklin
2. Natalie Coughlin

200 Back
1. Missy Franklin
2. Elizabeth Beisel

100 Breast
1. Rebecca Soni
2. Jessica Hardy

200 Breast
1. Rebecca Soni
2. Amanda Beard

100 Fly
1. Dana Vollmer
2. Christine Magnuson

200 Fly
1. Kathleen Hersey
2. Teresa Crippen

200 IM
1. Elizabeth Beisel
2. Ariana Kukors

400 IM
1. Elizabeth Beisel
2. Caitlin Leverenz

Men:

50 Free
1. Nathan Adrian
2. Jimmy Feigen

100 Free
1. Nathan Adrian
2. Garrett Weber-Gale
3. Matt Grevers
4. Jason Lezak
5. Jimmy Feigen
6. Dave Walters

200 Free
1. Ryan Lochte
2. Michael Phelps
3. Peter Vanderkaay
4. Ricky Berens
5. Matt McLean
6. Conor Dwyer

400 Free
1. Peter Vanderkaay
2. Matt McLean

1500 Free
1. Chad La Tourette
2. Peter Vanderkaay

100 Back
1. Matt Grevers
2. Nick Thoman

200 Back
1. Ryan Lochte
2. Tyler Clary

100 Breast
1. Brendan Hansen
2. Eric Shanteau

200 Breast
1. Eric Shanteau
2. Brendan Hansen

100 Fly
1. Michael Phelps
2. Tyler McGill

200 Fly
1. Michael Phelps
2. Tyler Clary

200 IM
1. Michael Phelps
2. Ryan Lochte

400 IM
1. Ryan Lochte
2. Tyler Clary

Thursday, August 4, 2011

U.S. Nationals: Day Three Predictions

With the third night of competition about to get underway, I wanted to leave my predictions headed into the five finals to be contested tonight.

Women's 100 Breast
1. Jessica Hardy
2. Annie Chandler
3. Ashley Wanland

Men's 100 Fly
1. Tyler McGill
2. Tim Phillips
3. Davis Tarwater

Women's 50 Free
1. Lara Jackson
2. Kara Lynn Joyce
3. Amanda Weir

Men's 50 Free
1. Nathan Adrian
2. Jimmy Feigen
3. Nick Brunelli

Women's 400 IM
1. Elizabeth Beisel
2. Maya DiRado
3. Teresa Crippen

Wednesday, August 3, 2011

U.S. Nationals: Day Two

With the second evening of finals in Palo Alto about to get underway, here are some predictions for the action to come. Look for great racing to be the theme of the night, and I don’t think there is a lock winner in any of the events up for grabs. Without further ado…

The women’s 100 back kicks off the action for the night. Missy Franklin is the world champ in the 200 back and has a best time this year of 59.56. Meanwhile, Elizabeth Pelton made the semi-finals of this event at worlds, while Rachel Bootsma clocked 50.53 in the 100-yard back at NCSA Junior Nationals. And finally, Jenny Connolly upstaged all of them to take the top seed! Should be tight, but Franklin will come out on top.

Prediction:
1. Franklin
2. Pelton
3. Bootsma

Peter Vanderkaay goes into the final of the men’s 200 free as an overwhelming favorite after finishing fourth in the 400 free at Worlds last week and clocking 1:46.07 on the U.S. men’s victorious 800 free relay in Shanghai. Ricky Berens, another member of that relay, is in the field, as is NCAA runner-up Dax Hill and 400 free champ Matt McLean. The final will have some University of Virginia flavor to it, as three swimmers who swam for the Cavaliers this year will take to the blocks: McLean, Scot Robison, and Peter Geissenger.

Prediction:
1. Vanderkaay
2. McLean
3. Berens

Olympic silver medalist Matt Grevers qualified first for the men’s 100 back final in 53.96, but 200 back World and Olympic champ Ryan Lochte is right behind him at 54.00. Grevers touched out Lochte for a spot on the Olympic team in this event three years ago, so Lochte will be out for revenge tonight. Look for both to finish in the low-53 range, perhaps even sub-53. Meanwhile, Nick Thoman and David Plummer finished fourth and fifth, respectively, at Worlds last week. The field is a deep one, as always, with the likes of Eugene Godsoe, Ben Hesen, David Russell, and Kyle Owens as threats.

Prediction:
1. Lochte
2. Grevers
3. Thoman

Allison Schmitt is the class of the field in the women’s 200 free, having finished sixth in the event at Worlds last week. She holds the American record in the event at 1:54.96. Dagny Knutson joined Schmitt on the winning 800 free relay at Worlds last week, while Schmitt’s University of Georgia teammates Megan Romano, Chelsea Nauta, and Shannon Vreeland will challenge from the top three lanes. The surprise of the morning, however, was Lauren Perdue; Perdue cut more than a second from her seed time to qualify second in 1:59.29. Perdue will be the one who goes out fast and tries to hang on, just like she did at NCAAs, where she ended up finishing second to Schmitt.

Prediction:
1. Schmitt
2. Perdue
3. Knutson

The men’s 200 fly is a wide open affair tonight in the absence of World champion Michael Phelps. Tyler Clary finished ninth at World Championships, while Dan Madwed and Davis Tarwater both snuck under 1:58 for the top two seeds. Clary and Tarwater have by far the top two best times in this event of the field, 1:53.64 and 1:54.46, both from the suit era. Meanwhile, Mark Dylla and Bobby Bollier finished second and fourth, respectively, in this race last year. However, I think Clary will take this title and prove that he is one of America’s top two 200 butterflyers, even after his Shanghai disappointment.

Prediction:
1. Clary
2. Tarwater
3. Madwed

Tuesday, August 2, 2011

U.S. Nationals: Day One

The FINA World Championships ended just two days ago in Shanghai, but America’s best swimmers are already assembled at Stanford University for the ConocoPhillips USA Swimming National Championships. Five days of prelims/finals racing await the top swimmers in the country, with slots for the Pan American Games and World Junior Championships up for grabs. Right now I will take a look at the six National titles up for grabs tonight and who will be in the mix to earn those titles.

The meet kicks off with the women’s 100 fly, and Dana Vollmer is in the field. Last week, she clocked an American record-time of 56.47 and a relay split of 55.74. She also won the world title. Basically, she’s the overwhelming favorite. She clocked 57.68 in prelims and said on Twitter today that her goal for finals is a sub-57 swim. However, Olympic silver medalist Christine Magnuson is the three-time defending champion and will not go down without a fight. Magnuson did not swim especially well at Worlds or in prelims, so look for Olympian Elaine Breeden to challenge, as well as Western Kentucky’s Claire Donahue, who earned the second seed this morning in 58.91.

Prediction:
1. Vollmer
2. Magnuson
3. Donahue

The men’s 400 free should be a doozy tonight. Peter Vanderkaay has won this title three of the last four years, but he scratched out of this race after finishing fourth at World Champs last week. In his absence, Charlie Houchin led prelims with an impressive 3:48.03, faster than he swam at the World Champs last week. Matt McLean and Matt Patton both broke 3:50 as well, while defending runner-up Michael Klueh looms in fourth place. Look for Klueh to put the burners on tonight and make a run at Houchin. This final has some young blood in it, with the likes of Jackson Wilcox, Michael McBroom, Sean Ryan, Evan Pinion, Andrew Gemmell, and Connor Jaeger.

Prediction:
1. Houchin
2. Klueh
3. McLean

Katie Hoff and Elizabeth Beisel stand well clear of the pack in the women’s 200 IM after prelims, but the star of last week’s Worlds is in the field as well: Missy Franklin. Hoff and Beisel clocked respective times of 2:11.68 and 2:11.85, while Franklin won the slowest of the seeded heats in 2:14.80. I expect all three to be in the 2:10-range tonight, maybe better. Also watch Stanford’s Julia Smit, who put together a fourth-ranked 2:13.33 in prelims, but she has a lifetime best of 2:09.37 from the suit era. Two more World teamers, Morgan Scroggy and Teresa Crippen, qualified for this final, but neither impressed last week in Shanghai or made any championship finals.

Prediction:
1. Beisel
2. Franklin
3. Hoff

For me, the most anticipated race of the night and possibly of the meet is the men’s 100 breast. 2004 Olympic silver medalist Brendan Hansen is back, and he proved it in prelims with a top-ranked time of 1:00.17, the top time by an American since techsuits were banned two years ago. In fact, no American other than Hansen has ever been faster in a jammer. He should win tonight, and anything under 1:00 will set him up very well for next year. Meanwhile, Mike Alexandrov qualified second in 1:00.70, much faster than his 1:01.41 at Worlds which left him 25th, while Marcus Titus finished third in prelims in 1:00.80. American record-holder Eric Shanteau also made this final, while World Champs finals Mark Gangloff scratched.

Prediction:
1. Hansen
2. Shanteau
3. Alexandrov

Four members of the World Championships team made the final in the women’s 400 free: Chloe Sutton, Allison Schmitt, Elizabeth Beisel, and Dagny Knutson. Sutton finished ninth in this event in Shanghai before finishing fourth in the 800 free, while Schmitt took sixth in the 200 free. These two should enter as favorites for tonight. The pair finished third and second, respectively, behind Katie Hoff in last year’s final. Ashley Steenvoorden clocked a lifetime best time of 4:09.16 to lead all qualifiers into the final, but expect Sutton to pick up the pace and win tonight’s final in a 4:06.

Prediction:
1. Sutton
2. Schmitt
3. Beisel

The men’s 400 IM will bring the night to a close. Andrew Gemmell qualified for his second final of the night with a top-ranked time of 4:18.33, followed closely by Conor Dwyer (4:18.75) and Robert Margalis (4:19.01). Jack Brown and Tyler Harris also got under the 4:10 barrier to qualify fourth and fifth, respectively, while NCAA Champion Bill Cregar qualified ninth to earn a berth in the ten-man final. Most of the contenders are known for their back half push in the breaststroke and freestyle legs, so this race won’t be decided until the last 50. Look for Austen Thompson to take the race out hard and try to hang on.

Prediction:
1. Dwyer
2. Margalis
3. Gemmell

Also tonight, the pros from SwimMAC Carolina take to the blocks in the men’s 400 free relay. Line-ups have not yet been released, but look for the likes of Nick Brunelli, Josh Schneider, Cullen Jones, Davis Tarwater, Eugene Godsoe, and Tim Phillips to make a splash. Should be an exciting first night of competition in Palo Alto! Check out live results from the meet here or here, and you can watch live video at USASwimming.org and also at Universal Sports.