Trials 101

The time has come. Olympic Trials are upon us once more. I will never forget where I was four years ago when I watched Michael Phelps and Ryan Lochte battle to the end in an epic 400 IM in Omaha where both broke the existing world record. That paved the way for a fantastic meet which featured nine swims in the WR category, the formation of one of the strongest U.S. teams in recent memory, and excitement which gripped the nation more than ever before. Once again, the eyes of the United States descend upon Omaha for eight days of triumph and heartbreak, the likes of which swimming only sees once every four years. 14,000 people will see firsthand one of the greatest spectacles in sport, while millions more will watch Dan Hicks and Rowdy Gaines call the races on NBC. Expect greatness.

Instead of a traditional look-ahead to the Trials, I went with a different approach. Tom Willdridge of the Speed Endurance Swim Blog was nice enough to join me for a lengthy chat in which we discussed some of the big storylines regarding the meet. We started with some of the topics on everyone's lips and then moved into some of the other events coming up this week. Agree/disagree? Please leave comments below! Here's what we expect.

David Rieder

Thanks for participating, Tom. Let's get started right away: Phelps or Lochte?

Tom Willdridge
Just an easy question to start with then. Everything over the last few years would suggest Lochte, but seeing Phelps in Shanghai last year get so close in the 200m IM makes me lean towards him regaining the upper hand. I think if both men are at their peaks, Phelps wins.
Where do you stand?

David Rieder
If we look at the 200 IM, circumstances favor Phelps. Lochte has a nasty double that day - 200 back and then 200 IM a half hour later. I expect very fast times, no question about that. But I agree; I did not expect that kind of speed from Phelps last summer. I think it's fair to say that going into the meet, I pick Phelps in the 200 IM.

David Rieder
200 free I'm less sure. Lochte has been improving at a ridiculous rate the past few years, and I assume that will only continue. He's in the same situation Phelps was headed into 2008, training with Peter Vanderkaay and Conor Dwyer. I really can't decide between those two yet, but I think the time will beat what Lochte swam in Shanghai last year.

Tom Willdridge
Saying that, Phelps has still been over half a second faster than Lochte in a textile suit. So again, if both men are at 100% you'd have to favor Phelps

David Rieder
That's true, but I really expect both men to be in that 1:43-high range. But yeah, Phelps at his best is the best. Do we assume that he will be at his absolute best? I mean, I expect him to do well, but his very best is, well, REALLY good!

Tom Willdridge
Given his career to this point, you have to think he is as driven as he's ever been to ensure he goes out on top
Could Berens or Dwyer spring a surprise or is a relay spot their best hope?

David Rieder
For sure. Just a question of whether he had enough time to get in that kind of shape.
I've liked what I've seen from Berens, especially, this year, and I expect something fast, but I don't think he's under 1:45. A great swim won't really throw anyone else into the hunt for the individual spot.
As for Lochte, he could swim the 100 back ten minutes after the 200 free final. Does he try the double?

Tom Willdridge
Great question. The 100m Back is pretty crucial for a potential gold medal tally given the relay, as is the 100m Free. I've got a feeling he will go for it.
The 100m Back is also fairly open; he could qualify with a 52 high/53 low.

David Rieder
I don't know if he will (try), but I can't imagine him making it. Grevers, Thoman, and Plummer will be at their best - sub-53 is very possible for all three - and I don't think Lochte can get that low on ten minutes rest. We are talking one final and two commercial breaks in between. You basically have time to get out and go to the ready room.

Tom Willdridge
The manic grand prix schedules he has been doing and this brutal training regime might indicate that he's gearing up for a superhuman schedule.
He's the type of guy that seems to want to do something crazy/special.

David Rieder
That would be crazy; no question.
Let's change gears and talk about the other main focus of the general media at these Trials, Missy Franklin.
What do you expect from her?

Tom Willdridge
Ah, the opinion splitter. Is there a swimmer that divides opinion more than Franklin?
Let's start with the easier events to predict. The 200m Back should be a walk in the park, I expect her to also win the 100m Back and the 200m Freestyle in a tight battle with Allison Schmitt.

David Rieder
I agree, though I haven't decided if I will pick her first or second in the 100 back and 200 free.

Tom Willdridge
I also expect her to win the 100m Freestyle, but to not qualify for the 50m Free

David Rieder
What people can't seem to agree on is how much faster she's gotten. The way I look at it, she hasn't been racing so much this year and focused more on training. For that reason, I expect another lights-out performance just like we saw at the Worlds. I expect to be shocked again.

Tom Willdridge
I'm expecting fast, but not lights-out swims at Trials... I do expect her to get faster from Trials to Olympics given her age and her ability to get up for her races on the biggest stage

David Rieder
Fair enough. Let's go more in depth to those 100 races. I can't see Natalie Coughlin letting Franklin get away from her, but then again there's Elizabeth Pelton, Rachel Bootsma, and even someone like Megan Romano, and all three will be right in the mix.
I feel like it could be a two-, three-, four-, or even five-woman race.

Tom Willdridge
I think it would be a huge shock if it wasn't a Franklin-Coughlin 1-2, but Bootsma's 59.6 last year was certainly eye opening
Megan Romano seems to be heading into Trials with a fair bit of buzz about her, do you think it's justified?

David Rieder
I do; she has been quietly swimming lights-out this year. 1:00.1 and 54.1 in the 100 free a month out are good times! I think her real shot at making the team will come on relays.
Timewise, I can't see how Coughlin's American record is safe in that 100 back. Both Coughlin and Franklin were 59.1 last year, and Coughlin has been upping her training every year since she's been back. Thoughts?

Tom Willdridge
Agreed, Coughlin's time is on borrowed time... I think both women will be sub-59 at Trials.

David Rieder
How about the 100 free? It's tight at the top, but that race is still wide open, and I have no idea how fast any of those women can go.
Obviously, you have to believe Franklin can go a 53-low, and Vollmer and Coughlin have more in the tank than the 54.0s from last year, but who else can be in the mix?

Tom Willdridge
After her swim in Austin, Allison Schmitt has suddenly burst onto the scene alongside Romano. I like Jessica Hardy's chances too, who I think will have a great Trials... plus Amanda Weir seems to have a knack for making the US team

David Rieder
I agree. Probably 12 or more of the semi-finalists have a chance to make the team.

Tom Willdridge
Who wins the women's 100m Breast? Soni or Hardy?

David Rieder
If they race the 100 breast ten times, Soni wins nine. But the thing is, this could be the one that Hardy takes. I certainly don't think she will take both Trials and Olympics, and I will pick Soni for both. But Hardy has a shot, and she will be in the mix.
Both have 1:04.7-ish potential, but Soni is far more likely to convert.

Tom Willdridge
I've got a sneaky suspicion that Hardy will win the Trials. After everything that happened four years her hunger to impress/redress the balance will be enormous.
Plus, she has the added bonus of having beaten Soni already this year.
The way the last few years had been going Soni had been looking unbeatable.

David Rieder
I can see that. A very similar race to 2008 where Soni was the favorite and top qualifier and Hardy won from lane two. Like I said, I pick Soni, but I wouldn't be surprised.
How about the men's breaststrokes? Are we looking at Hansen and Shanteau taking both, or can someone else break it up?

Tom Willdridge
Hansen I think should make it, but I'm not so sure about Shanteau in the 100. Gangloff and Alexandrov on their day could take the second spot, my pick is Gangloff

David Rieder
Hansen is the favorite to win for sure, but that second spot could really be a tight race. I think Hansen has a 59-low in him, and I think that second swimmer will have to be right around that minute mark to make the team. Quite a change in a year.

Tom Willdridge
The 200 Breast could be even closer given Clark Burckle's 2:09 this yea; who are your picks?

David Rieder
Burckle's swim was great, but I think it's all Shanteau and Hansen. Shanteau's 2:09 at UltraSwim was big, given his times from that meet over the past few years, and Hansen has his confidence back in that 200. That's the big change for him lately.

Tom Willdridge
I think we might see Shanteau and Burckle take the 200m Breast spots.

David Rieder
Should be a good race for sure. Hansen will be out fast, and he'll have to hold off Shanteau and Burckle down the stretch. As we remember, that didn't turn out so good last time around.

Tom Willdridge
How about the sprint freestyles? Can anyone register a swim that will make Cielo or Magnussen sit up and take notice?

David Rieder
I'm not sure anyone can put up a time that can challenge Magnussen, but I expect a few 47s. Adrian has looked phenomenal this season, getting down to a 48-mid, and remember that he never got under 49 last year before he underperformed at Worlds. He's probably the only challenger for an individual medal in the 100 free - and probably the 50 too - assuming that Phelps won't go for the 100 free.

Tom Willdridge
I think Magnussen has put an end to that dream for Phelps. Can Lezak be a relay hero once again?

David Rieder
I have no idea what Jason Lezak can do. Hard to believe this won't be his last Trials. I think that, yes, he can make the relay, but will he? We will know a lot more about what he is capable of after prelims. Don't count this guy out; that's for sure. If he's in the final, watch out.

Tom Willdridge
I think Jimmy Feigen could be poised for a big swim in the 100 Free... but will there be enough firepower on the relay to challenge Australia and France?

David Rieder
I really think there will be. Like I said, Feigen and Berens look strong, and Weber-Gale underperformed on that relay last year. Lochte has a big swim in him. Again, though, not ready to make a prediction there until I see the race at Trials. No one should be naming race winners quite yet.

Tom Willdridge
You're a true patriot! Ok - Caitlin Leverenz. Talk to me, just how fast could she be, and can you see her getting past Kukors in the 200IM or Beisel in the 400IM?

David Rieder
I'd say that about any race! As for Leverenz, I really like her in the 200 IM. I do think she can take down Kukors in that, and I feel like she could be under 2:09. In the 400 IM, I still lean towards Beisel. She has been gearing up for Trials since Worlds last year, and she will throw down a big one to respond to what we've seen from Miley, Hosszu, and Rice over the past few months. Leverenz will be in the mix, and she is favorite for second, but I give her much more of a chance to win the 200 IM. I know you really like what she did at NCAAs - what do you expect?

Tom Willdridge
I think she is a real danger, her breaststroke is so much better than some of her rivals and she seems to be trending in the right direction as London approaches. I think there is still a lot more to see from her in the 400m IM

David Rieder
Definitely a lot more to see from her.

Tom Willdridge
Can you see any shocks in the women's medley events?

David Rieder
Not a whole lot. Beisel is there in that 200 IM, and you never know what someone like Katie Hoff will do event-wise, but I don't see anything too surprising happening there.

Tom Willdridge
Do you see Katie Hoff qualifying in an individual event?

David Rieder
I don't think so. I think training again with Paul Yetter does a lot for her confidence, but she looks like a piece of the 800 free relay at best. You never know, though; she would love to rebound after some letdowns the past couple years.

Tom Willdridge
She will be in the mix for one of the 400m Free spots with Schmitt, Sutton and of course Katie Ledecky. How do you think Ledecky will cope on the big stage?

David Rieder
I think Ledecky will swim well, but Schmitt and Sutton have the race to lose. I don't think Schmitt has lost this year, and of her main challengers, only Sutton has really been out of the races while she's been in a practice suit. As for times, I have no idea what they can do. 4:04-low, maybe a 4:03-high? Really don't know what to expect there.

Tom Willdridge
Schmitt scares me slightly (from a non-US perspective), she's underperformed recently but this year has been a different story. I think she is the one US swimmer that has a chance to get down to the Muffat, Adlington, Pellegrini level on the 400. Her improved speed could be a real weapon on both the 200 and 400.  

David Rieder
Certainly she has the best chance to do it this year. Remember, she was fourth in 2009 behind Pellegrini and the two Brits. She was closing on them too. Add in some speed and you have a weapon.

Thanks again to Tom for joining me. This Trials will be spectacular. Too spectacular to miss, actually. And won't. That's right, I will be in Omaha next Friday and Saturday to watch the fifth and sixth days of the Trials, and I cannot wait! Omaha will be Swim Geek heaven. If you will be in town, please let me know. Email me, or send me a message on Twitter or Facebook. And so, may the 2012 Olympic Swim Trials begin.