Top Ten Swimmers of 2011

2011 has come to a close, and 2012 has begun, but I still have to reveal my top-ten swimmers of 2011. Inspired by Speed Endurance’s top-51 rankings, I will do the same, but I am only going to take a look at the top-ten swimmers I saw this year. In general, my list is similar to Tom Willdridge, with nine of the same ten swimmers, but some changes in order reflect my different criteria for picking my swimmers. My list is almost entirely dependent on performances at the World Championships in Shanghai, while other international competitions will hold some weight, and times posted elsewhere will have minimal significance.

Check out the Speed Endurance top-51 lists, and compare that top-ten to mine!
No. 51 – No. 42
No. 41 – No. 32
No. 31 – No. 22
No. 21 – No. 11
No. 10 – No. 1

10. Cesar Cielo, Brazil
Cielo had a nice bounce-back year after losing both the 50 and 100 free at Pan Pacs to Nathan Adrian. Although he did not know if he’d even be able to swim at Worlds until the week before, he came to Shanghai ready to get down the pool fast. While his times in the 50 fly and 50 free were not his best, he still obliterated everyone else. Cielo has put himself into ideal position to chase his second-consecutive Olympic title in the 50 free, having not lost an important race since 2008. He finished fourth in the 100 free before posting a 47.84 at the Pan Ams. Holding on for the full 100 has been a challenge since the tech suits were banned, but Cielo made big progress towards that mark in 2011.

9. Dana Vollmer, USA
Dana Vollmer fits in at number nine on both my list and that of Speed Endurance. Vollmer started things off right for the U.S. team at Worlds. She swam under 57 and almost beat her own American record in prelims before putting up a stellar 56.47 in semi-finals and edging Alicia Coutts for the gold in the final. Less than two hours after that 56.47, Vollmer swam the anchor leg for the silver medal-winning U.S. 400 free relay, and later in the week, she sealed the deal for the medley relay and setting up a new American record. She leads Team USA again into 2012.

8. Federica Pellegrini, Italy
Again, I agree with Tom on the number eight pick. Pellegrini raced tough in Shanghai, obliterating Rebecca Adlington and Camille Muffat for the win in the 400 free and the first textile swim under 4:02. Despite holding the world record and reigning as the World and Olympic champion, she went into the final of the 200 free as a clear underdog behind Femke Heemskerk. Swimming from the back of the pack, Pellegrini overtook a fading Heemskerk for the win. She will face tough challenges at the Olympics, especially in the 200 free, but she proved in 2011 that she is clutch.

7. Alexander Dale Oen, Norway
Dale Oen led qualifiers going into the final of the 100 breast in Shanghai, but many still considered him an underdog to Kosuke Kitajima. The two-time Olympic champion, Kitajima had edged Dale Oen for the top time in the world in 2010. In the final, Dale Oen jumped out to a huge lead and won in 58.71, falling just short of Brenton Rickard’s world record of 58.71. The media lauded Dale Oen for winning at a time when Norway had been devastated with attacks of terrorism. Dale Oen’s swim was so impressive that he swam slower in the 50 breast then his opening split in the 100 breast. Illness derailed chances at another gold in the 50 breast and forced him to withdraw from the 200 breast.

6. James Magnussen, Australia
This young sprinter from down under started off the year with some fireworks, posting a 48.29 in the 100 free at his National championships, shocking the entire swimming community. Still, he was an outside shot for a medal, at best, in Shanghai, until he came down with pneumonia in the weeks before the meet. By that point, no one expected much from him, and I had even heard rumors that he would withdraw from the meet. The last thing anyone expected was a 47.49 lead-off leg in the 400 free relay. After leading Australia to gold there, Magnussen carved up the individual 100 free field to secure another gold and almost ran down Nathan Adrian in the medley relay, earning Aussie silver. Magnussen enters 2012 as the clear favorite for the Olympic gold in the 100 free, but questions still remain as to his Olympic ambitions in the 50 free and on Australia’s 800 free relay. Despite talking up his 200 potential, he has done nothing to prove that he is a legitimate threat to help Australia earn a medal in that relay. So far, his only true successes have been in the 100.

5. Rebecca Soni, USA
Soni has been the model of consistency over the past two years, dominating her stroke unlike anyone else in the world has over that span. She has not lost a 200 breast since the 2009 Worlds, and has only lost one 100 breast long course during that time period. This year, she was almost than a second in front of Jessica Hardy in the world rankings in the 100 breast and had even more of a cushion in the 200 breast. She has consistently thrown down lights-out times in-season and backed it up in the big meets. She also provided a key leg for the dominating U.S. women’s medley relay in Shanghai. Over the past few years, though, Soni has had one goal in mind: win Olympic gold and break world records. This is the year when she can pull it off.

4. Michael Phelps, USA
People criticized the greatest of all time. I said that Phelps wouldn’t be ready for Shanghai. But at that meet, Michael Phelps showed some clutch in winning four golds, two silvers, and a bronze. Many predicted that Phelps wouldn’t medal in the 200 free, but he jumped out fast and held off the likes of Paul Biedermann and Park Tae Hwan for the silver medal. They said he would lose the 200 fly, an event which he hadn’t lost for nearly a decade, but he blasted past Takeshi Matsuda on the final lap for the win. They said he couldn’t challenge Ryan Lochte in the 200 IM, but he went all the way to the finish and beat his best time from the 2008 Olympics. The American relays leaned on the efforts of Michael Phelps. Quite a performance for someone not at peak form. Phelps has swam great since those Worlds, and he is building up to a grand finale this summer.

3. Missy Franklin, USA
Missy was the biggest surprise of 2011. Earning a spot on the U.S. 400 free relay in prelims, she blasted a 52.99 split in the final to give the Americans a chance against the Netherlands. On day five, however, she moved into the world’s limelight. After a stunning bronze medal in the 50 back, Franklin led off the 800 free relay in 1:55.06, by far the top time of the year, on the way to a relay gold. Entering the meet as a medal contender in the 200 back, Franklin entered the event as the clear favorite for gold. She twice lowered the American record and swam the third-fastest time ever to win gold. That same day, she anchored Natalie Coughlin, Soni, and Vollmer to a dominating medley relay win. Just days later, Franklin flew to Palo Alto for U.S. Nationals, where she posted the fifth-fastest time in the world in the 100 back and a time that would have won bronze in the 100 free. Perhaps Franklin would be even higher on this list if she had the opportunity to swim more events at Worlds. Look out London.

2. Sun Yang, China
This young Chinese superstar made history in 2011, lowering Grant Hackett’s longstanding world record in the 1500 free with an epic final two laps to come back from two seconds behind world record-pace. I name this swim the undisputed top swim of 2011. Sun also took the gold in the 800 and silver in the 400. Sun went into the 400 free final as the top qualifier but finished well behind Park Tae Hwan for the silver. Despite this, Sun still holds the top two times of the year in the 400 free. His 3:40.29 came up just shy of Biedermann’s 3:40.07 world record. Still, he put that swim up at the wrong time, at Chinese Nationals two months after Worlds. Speed Endurance claims that this swim puts him over the top for number one on this list. I disagree; the best swimmer in the world doesn’t come up short in a World Championships final. Sun Yang has to settle for number two.

1. Ryan Lochte, USA
Ryan Lochte is the top swimmer in the world again this year. Lochte ran down Michael Phelps for a win over the fastest field ever in the 200 free, before edging Phelps two days later in the 200 IM. More importantly, Lochte broke the first world record in the long course pool in 18 months, his 1:54.00 edging the 1:54.10 he swam in 2009 in Rome. He took almost a full second off his personal best in the 200 back to destroy the likes of Ryosuke Irie and Tyler Clary before anchoring the U.S. in a comeback win in the 800 free relay. He finished his week off with a four-second victory in the 400 IM with promise of going much faster next year on the event on the first day instead of the last. Lochte holds a huge edge on the rest of the world in 2012, and while he faces major challenges, particularly in Phelps, expect him to step up and swim better than ever.

The Apogee of Sport

Surprise; I’m not dead! I’ve been absent from the blog for awhile, but I’m still just as involved in swimming as ever. Swimming is building up to the Olympic climax this summer, but I honestly haven’t felt as if I have had any comments to add to the various conversations as of late. Don’t worry, though; I’m coming back soon with my top ten swimmers of 2011. Inspired by Speed Endurance’s Top-51 list, I will compare my top ten with those that Tom Willdridge picked and explain why I disagree with him for almost every place.

In the meantime, I had one particularly neat experience lately that I would like to share. No, I didn’t go to a swim meet and watch up-and-comers or even Olympians compete, like I have before. On New Years Day, I went to an NFL game between the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys at MetLife Stadium, just outside of New York City. I have family in the area, and the Giants have always been my favorite NFL team, but to get the chance to see them play in person was amazing. This game carried special significance: the winner would win the NFC East division and make the playoffs. The loser was going home.

The game was originally scheduled to be played during the afternoon of January 1, one of 16 games around the country on the slate for the day. With the importance of the matchup, NBC moved the game to prime time, making it the final game of the NFL regular season in real time. Swim fans will see some déjà vu in this situation, after NBC moved the Olympic swimming finals in Beijing to the morning to show them live in prime time in America. For fans, a late start could be a bit obnoxious, but I think it made the experience that much more special. NBC acknowledged that everything was on the line.

Growing up, I always watched the Olympics and loved watching the Olympics. While swimming has always been my favorite sport to watch, each period of two weeks every two years I cannot keep my eyes off of the TV. At the center of NBC’s Olympic coverage for each Games, summer and winter, is Bob Costas. Bob Costas sits at the apex of sports media worldwide. When I walked into MetLife Stadium, across the field sat a black tent; indeed, Bob Costas sat in that tent, anchoring NBC’s Football Night in America on that rainy night. The swim geek in the same arena as Bob Costas. Wow.

The stadium itself is a metal maze, and for this game, it was lit up in blue. 80,000 rowdy fans, dressed in blue and waiving white Giants towels, packed the stadium to create an atmosphere unlike any I have witnessed before. When the Cowboys marched out, boos filled the arena, but the home team ran onto the field amid fireworks and some of the loudest noise imaginable. The energy-packed arena exploded when quarterback Eli Manning threw a 74-yard touchdown pass to Victor Cruz and when the Giants defense forced a Cowboys stop on third or fourth down and especially when Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo threw an interception. The Giants led 21-0 at halftime, but as the Cowboys crawled back into the game, with the score standing at 21-14 with ten minutes left, every Giants fan, including me, felt a nervous feeling in the pit of the stomach.

Fortunately, the Giants held on to win, 31-14, and make it to the playoffs. As a fan, I loved the result, but the experience was something amazing that I cannot forget. A huge stadium with a roaring crowd. Athletes marching out to fireworks. A long season of hard work coming down to one last chance. Nerves, excitement, exuberance, and crushing defeat. All that sports provides coming down to one last shot.

Where can we find this in swimming? The Olympic Trials. This summer in Omaha, eight athletes will march out in 26 unique finals and put it all on the line. Thousands roaring, with millions more glaring at the TV at home in anxiety. Joy and pride for those who make it, leaving those who don’t in tears. A month later, those select few athletes who make it will test themselves against the world’s best, just as the New York Giants must now do in the NFL playoffs. They seek to win a Super Bowl, but each step brings infinitely more challenges, just like the U.S. Olympic Team will face. This summer will highlight the best swimming and sport in general has to offer. Football gets these moments several times a year, but swimming gets its once every four years. Fellow swim geeks, let’s relish those moments. Bring on 2012.

Palmetto Thanksgiving Turkey Invite

As anyone who regularly reads this blog knows, I don’t write about my own personal swimming experiences a lot. I am passionate about all levels of swimming, but here I like to focus on the top tier of competition and the build-up to next summer’s Olympics. Today, with not much news coming out of the swimming world right now, I am changing gears to discuss a meet I competed in last weekend, the Palmetto Thanksgiving Turkey Invite at the University of South Carolina in Columbia, SC. I came home with a mixed bag of results and some fond memories, including meeting Gamecock star Michael Flach, who is redshirting to train for Olympic Trials. However, five moments stood out as truly amazing.

First, I want to give some context on my swimming career. I swim for the newly-formed LTP Racing Club in Charleston, SC, and I specialize in mid-distance free and backstroke. I have been dropping time consistently for years, but I feel like I had a breakout at my high school State meet two months ago, where I swam 4:57.11 to cut almost 15 seconds off my 500 best time. Last year, I won that race in a 5:11, defeating an extremely talented teammate who was sick at the time. This year, I took a surprising lead at the 100 and held it through the 450, but I ended up second as both my teammate and I broke the previous state record. Another big moment came this summer at my Long Course State Championships, when I made consolation finals in both backstroke races, the first time I had ever earned a second swim at State meet.

Palmetto used an interesting format for a three-day meet, with finals on Saturday only. With my 4:57, I had been seeded into the top heat of the 500 (which would swim with finals), and I also qualified for the A-final in the 100 back. I am a pretty big swim geek (obviously), and I have watched a lot of meets where top athletes get to walk out with music for their championship finals. Never have I gotten such an experience. That is, never until this weekend. When Palmetto’s coach told me that I would get to walk out, I literally went nuts. To use a cliché expression, I felt like a kid in a candy shop. Definitely not behavior that one would normally associate with a 17 year old senior in high school, but for someone who has thus far had a relatively modest career in the pool, it meant a lot to walk out for those finals.

Like with most committed swimmers, I try to be at as many practices as possible, but that doesn’t always pan out. I missed at least a day or two of club practice per week during high school season, and I occasionally have school commitments that don’t allow me to swim. One teammate, however, has literally had perfect attendance the last four months since August 1, when we started back to practice following a week break after our Long Course State Championships. This particular teammate is not the most talented, but he works hard every day, and he is chopping huge chunks in practice and meets. He just aged up to the 13-14 age group, and he did not yet have any State qualifying times when we left for Columbia.

He swam the 1000 free on Friday night, and I was at the end of his lane counting for him and watching splits come up on the scoreboard. I checked the State cut just before the race, and I saw 11:36.49. As the race progressed, he was holding consistent and fast splits, 34-mid to 35-flat per 50, but as he turned for his last 50, I thought he would be just a bit shy of the cut. However, he came home in 32.16 for a final time of 11:36.17. At that point, I screamed so loud that my voice was hoarse for the next couple days. Simply put, that was hard work paying off, and I know how much he deserved that.

Another of my teammates has had a rough road the past few months. She struggled during high school season to do get to a lot of club practices, and she did not drop time in any of her events at a meet two weeks ago in Greenville, SC. Meanwhile, she was struggling outside of the pool and contemplated a break from swimming. At this meet, she had swum some alright races along with others she didn’t want to remember. On Sunday, she swam the 200 free first. From our team’s seating area, I was getting ready for my 200 and watching the scoreboard. I saw her splits, and it was obvious that she was going to go a best time. But she didn’t cut off a couple tenths or even a second. 4.48 seconds. I ran over to the end of the pool, and she had a huge smile from ear-to-ear and gave me a big hug. She no longer has doubts about swimming.

I have two more favorite moments from this weekend, and both involve a friend from Columbia that I met last year through high school swimming. When I won the 500 then, he finished third in 5:13.82. He then played basketball during short course season, spending less time in the water and swimming at only one meet. During long course, he kept coming up short of State qualifying times, but he assumed that he would be able to use a qualifying time for the 1500 before realizing just two weeks before that the cut had expired. He did not swim at Long Course State, and he had a rough high school season as well, finishing third again in the 500 but going as slow as 5:15.

He also swam at the meet this weekend, and, as he was not in my heat for the 500, I watched. As always, he took the race out hard, and I kept a close eye on his splits. His best time was still that 5:13.82 from high school State more than a year earlier. As he was about to finish, I ran behind his lane, watching the scoreboard closely. His time: 5:13.75. A year of struggling and forced patience finally behind, he finally cleared the barrier of going a best time in the 500 free, and I couldn’t have been happier for him. He still does not have his State cut, but he is tapering for a meet in Greensboro next month, and I’m confident he will get it there.

The final event of the meet was the 400 IM, and this same friend and I were both up to swim. Before that, I had only swum one 400 IM, when I went 4:51 last month. The State cut was a 4:47.99, and, despite throwing away my chance at a cut in the 200 free minutes before, I was very confident I could get down to that mark. My friend, meanwhile, was going for his first State cut in more than two years. I swam first, and he joined my teammates in rooting hard for me. I touched the wall in 4:45.15 and pumped my fists. I then dealt with a mob of excited teammates and my friend attacking me.

Two heats later, my friend was on the blocks. Having not swum this race short course in years, he easily disposed of his competitors, and I had my eyes glued to the scoreboard. He and I are at about the same level in butterfly and freestyle, and I am faster in backstroke, but I am truly awful at breaststroke, and he is far better. He took the race out fast and outsplit me on every 50 for the first 300. Usually, I don’t like losing to him, but I was so excited. He touched in 4:40.09, and I was congratulating him before he could look at the scoreboard. He will be at State meet, and that moment was just awesome.

Obviously, for some people, these moments from a small swim meet would seem insignificant, and even in the grand scheme of this season, they probably are. However, swimming for me is about more than personal improvement or goals; rather, I live for those memories of watching my friends go best times and get their first State cuts and overcome their frustrations. Each season in swimming is a journey, and those moments are little reminders interspliced throughout months of training that make everything worth it. I love swimming, and I love when other people love swimming too.

The Ian Thorpe Comeback Begins

Next weekend, Ian Thorpe will make his long-awaited comeback at the Singapore stop of the World Cup. The swimming community has awaited this moment since whispers of a Thorpe comeback started popping up in the spring of 2010. Thorpe quickly denied such rumors, but the publicity never went away, and Thorpe stepped up to announce his intentions on February 2, 2011. However, due to FINA rules, Thorpe had to wait nine months before he could race once more, and that waiting period expires this week, just before Thorpe steps up once again. Supposedly focusing on the 100 and 200 free in his comeback, abandoning his former “baby” the 400 free, Thorpe surprised many when he announced his entries for the Singapore meet – the 100 IM and 100 fly!

In his previous incarnation as a mid-distance legend, Thorpe simply dominated freestyle races. This blog won’t list all of medals he’s won; check out his accomplishments on his Wikipedia page. In short, Thorpe burst out onto the international scene at age 15 with his win in the 400 free at the 1998 World Championships, eating away Grant Hackett’s huge lead to record a narrow triumph at the finish. From that point, Thorpe dominated world swimming and remained the undisputed best swimmer in the world for five years. No one dreamed of matching his accomplishments.

When Thorpe swam at the 2003 World Championships in Barcelona, however, he found himself overshadowed. An 18 year old from Baltimore had stolen the limelight, setting world records in each of the individual events he swam. For that meet, Thorpe elected to add the 200 IM to his regular program of events. Weeks before Barcelona, Phelps had lowered an eight year old world record of 1:58.16 to 1:57.94 at the Santa Clara Grand Prix. In the second of two semi-final heats, Phelps swam from lane four and lowered the record again, this time to 1:57.52, while Thorpe swam out in lane eight and snuck into the final as the fifth qualifier. The next day, Phelps stepped up, having just set a new world record in the 100 fly semi-finals, to race Thorpe for the first time head-to-head in a major final.



Saying that Phelps owned this race is an understatement. Thorpe won silver, 3.5 seconds behind, setting an Australian record that would last until the 2009 World Championships, where Leith Brodie destroyed that mark in a polyurethane suit. Thorpe would never swim this race again in a major competition, focusing on the freestyle events at the 2004 Olympics and retiring a couple years later, having never again swum in a major competition. Now, he returns to the World Cup to swim events he has never even swum on the major stage!

When I read about Thorpe’s Singapore surprise, I assumed that he was merely using the two off-events to tune up and get back into racing without much pressure. He would then build off those performances when he swam the same two events at the Beijing stop before adding the 100 free for the final stop in Tokyo, taking baby steps towards his goal of qualifying in the freestyle events, at least in relays, for the London Olympics. However, an article written by Geoff Huegill, he explored for the first time the possibility that Thorpe might be preparing to take the 100 fly seriously. In this article posted by the Herald Sun, Huegill noted that Gennadi Touretski, the man responsible for Alexander Popov and now training Thorpe, has a tendency to train swimmers for fly and shows a bit of anxiety at the prospect of taking on Thorpe in that event at Australia’s Olympic Trials.

Huegill’s words reminded me of Thorpe’s one excursion into the butterfly and IM, his race with Phelps in Barcelona. In that race, he stayed surprisingly close to Phelps on the fly, especially considering that Phelps set world records in both butterfly events at that meet. His backstroke was solid (Thorpe did win silver in the Commonwealth Games in the 100 back in 2002), and breaststroke lost him a lot of ground to the other silver medal contenders, such as Massi Rosolino. A 1:59 is no longer a competitive time on the world stage, but a 100 IM in short course will do a better job hiding his weakness on breaststroke. In the 100 fly, he could challenge Huegill’s times from the World Cup stops last week in Europe, which would legitimately open the door for him in the 100 fly down the line.

My expectations for Thorpe in the 100 fly and 100 IM have risen, and I’m looking forward to seeing how he handles the world stage. His 100 fly could get to the point where he steps up with a legitimate shot at London, and the Australian Olympic Trials would feature three legends in Thorpe, Huegill, and Michael Klim (though by no means do I think Thorpe or Klim will have an easy time getting past Australia’s new generation of flyers). However, if Thorpe falls flat in his 100 fly and 100 IM, fans have nothing to worry; Thorpe came back to race freestyle, and I believe that in freestyle, he will qualify to swim in the London Olympics.

Fran Crippen: One Year Later

On January 3, I posted a blog discussing the long-lasting mark Fran Crippen left on our sport. The world remembers Crippen as an amazing swimmer and caring man, as his sister Claire discussed on Friday’s edition of the Morning Swim Show. He was a fierce competitor and a favorite to make the U.S. Olympic team in Open Water for 2012. When the top Open Water swimmers arrived in Fort Lauderdale for the National Championships this June, Crippen’s absence created a major hole in the competition. The top two finishers at that meet would earn berths for the World Championships in Shanghai and a chance to make the London Olympics, as the top ten from that meet automatically qualified.

In Fort Lauderdale, Eva Fabian and Christine Jennings earned the women’s spots bound for Shanghai. Both swam in that same race in Dubai in which Crippen lost his life, and neither finished the race, as both ended up in the hospital suffering from dehydration. On the men’s side, Alex Meyer and Sean Ryan qualified for the World Championships. Meyer, especially, had a connection to Crippen. Months after Crippen turned around to help Meyer to shore when the latter became ill during the 10k at Pan Pacs, Meyer led the search for Crippen’s body when his friend failed to finish in Dubai.

In Shanghai, Fabian and Jennings both failed to make the cut for the Olympic team, but the next day, Meyer finished in fourth place in the men’s race, earning himself a ticket to London. Afterwards, Meyer stated that while he would have liked Ryan to qualify to make it two Americans headed to London, he believed the second spot needed to remain open for Crippen, demonstrating the impact Crippen made on American Open Water swimming. That impact spread to the pool; at both the 2010 Short Course and 2011 Long Course World Championships, the American team wore the letters “FC” on their warm-up jackets.

When I last wrote about Fran Crippen, I discussed the impact Fran had on the formation of my new swim team, the LTP Racing Club. My coach swam with Fran at the University of Virginia and stayed in contact in the years following. He used a quote from Fran on the back of our first team t-shirts. Fran’s connection with the team goes deeper; he died the very same day as the team swam its very first meet. Since then, he has been our inspiration, our inspiration to keep dreaming and keep pushing towards new heights in and out of the pool, and our inspiration to honor him on the one-year anniversary of his death.

In Claire Crippen’s interview on Friday, she spoke of the week after Fran died. At that point, she swam for Virginia, while Teresa continues to swim at Florida. Back at home almost immediately, both realized just two days later that Fran would have wanted them back in the pool, and Tuesday morning, a mere 72 hours following Fran’s death, the two went to practice at Germantown Academy with their old coach Richard Shoulberg. After Fran’s death, the two had expressed doubts about continuing their swimming careers, but Fran’s passion and excitement for swimming encouraged them to get back in the water and keep striving towards their goals, Claire towards her final ACC Championships and NCAA Champions and Teresa towards the World Championships, where she made the semi-finals of the 200 fly.

Thus, the memory of Fran Crippen exemplifies the true nature of swimming: passion. This includes the passion to get up at 4:45 in the morning every day all summer to swim; the passion to push passed preconceived limits with sights set on becoming the best swimmer one can be; and the passion to support your friends and teammates after tough races or rough patches in life with the promise of improvement down the road. Whenever passion for swimming may dwindle, look no further for inspiration than Fran Crippen. Fran left behind hopes of a safer sport, one where no athlete will ever again lose his life in competition, and he provides the fuel for Alex Meyer, Teresa Crippen, the LTP Racing Club, and swimmers around the world to live their dreams.

Olympic Trials Predictions

More than nine months still remain before the 2012 Olympic Trials, but I have already begun thinking about who will leave that meet and head to London on the Olympic Team. As I like to do, I am sharing my early predictions for that meet. Of course, I cannot predict what young swimmers will breakout in the early part of the new year, so I predict a team full of veterans to cross the Atlantic next summer. Here we go.

Women:

50 Free
1. Jessica Hardy
2. Dara Torres

100 Free
1. Missy Franklin
2. Natalie Coughlin
3. Dana Vollmer
4. Jessica Hardy
5. Amanda Weir
6. Kara Lynn Joyce

200 Free
1. Missy Franklin
2. Allison Schmitt
3. Katie Hoff
4. Dana Vollmer
5. Dagny Knutson
6. Morgan Scroggy

400 Free
1. Chloe Sutton
2. Allison Schmitt

800 Free
1. Kate Ziegler
2. Chloe Sutton

100 Back
1. Missy Franklin
2. Natalie Coughlin

200 Back
1. Missy Franklin
2. Elizabeth Beisel

100 Breast
1. Rebecca Soni
2. Jessica Hardy

200 Breast
1. Rebecca Soni
2. Amanda Beard

100 Fly
1. Dana Vollmer
2. Christine Magnuson

200 Fly
1. Kathleen Hersey
2. Teresa Crippen

200 IM
1. Elizabeth Beisel
2. Ariana Kukors

400 IM
1. Elizabeth Beisel
2. Caitlin Leverenz

Men:

50 Free
1. Nathan Adrian
2. Jimmy Feigen

100 Free
1. Nathan Adrian
2. Garrett Weber-Gale
3. Matt Grevers
4. Jason Lezak
5. Jimmy Feigen
6. Dave Walters

200 Free
1. Ryan Lochte
2. Michael Phelps
3. Peter Vanderkaay
4. Ricky Berens
5. Matt McLean
6. Conor Dwyer

400 Free
1. Peter Vanderkaay
2. Matt McLean

1500 Free
1. Chad La Tourette
2. Peter Vanderkaay

100 Back
1. Matt Grevers
2. Nick Thoman

200 Back
1. Ryan Lochte
2. Tyler Clary

100 Breast
1. Brendan Hansen
2. Eric Shanteau

200 Breast
1. Eric Shanteau
2. Brendan Hansen

100 Fly
1. Michael Phelps
2. Tyler McGill

200 Fly
1. Michael Phelps
2. Tyler Clary

200 IM
1. Michael Phelps
2. Ryan Lochte

400 IM
1. Ryan Lochte
2. Tyler Clary

U.S. Nationals: Day Three Predictions

With the third night of competition about to get underway, I wanted to leave my predictions headed into the five finals to be contested tonight.

Women's 100 Breast
1. Jessica Hardy
2. Annie Chandler
3. Ashley Wanland

Men's 100 Fly
1. Tyler McGill
2. Tim Phillips
3. Davis Tarwater

Women's 50 Free
1. Lara Jackson
2. Kara Lynn Joyce
3. Amanda Weir

Men's 50 Free
1. Nathan Adrian
2. Jimmy Feigen
3. Nick Brunelli

Women's 400 IM
1. Elizabeth Beisel
2. Maya DiRado
3. Teresa Crippen

U.S. Nationals: Day Two

With the second evening of finals in Palo Alto about to get underway, here are some predictions for the action to come. Look for great racing to be the theme of the night, and I don’t think there is a lock winner in any of the events up for grabs. Without further ado…

The women’s 100 back kicks off the action for the night. Missy Franklin is the world champ in the 200 back and has a best time this year of 59.56. Meanwhile, Elizabeth Pelton made the semi-finals of this event at worlds, while Rachel Bootsma clocked 50.53 in the 100-yard back at NCSA Junior Nationals. And finally, Jenny Connolly upstaged all of them to take the top seed! Should be tight, but Franklin will come out on top.

Prediction:
1. Franklin
2. Pelton
3. Bootsma

Peter Vanderkaay goes into the final of the men’s 200 free as an overwhelming favorite after finishing fourth in the 400 free at Worlds last week and clocking 1:46.07 on the U.S. men’s victorious 800 free relay in Shanghai. Ricky Berens, another member of that relay, is in the field, as is NCAA runner-up Dax Hill and 400 free champ Matt McLean. The final will have some University of Virginia flavor to it, as three swimmers who swam for the Cavaliers this year will take to the blocks: McLean, Scot Robison, and Peter Geissenger.

Prediction:
1. Vanderkaay
2. McLean
3. Berens

Olympic silver medalist Matt Grevers qualified first for the men’s 100 back final in 53.96, but 200 back World and Olympic champ Ryan Lochte is right behind him at 54.00. Grevers touched out Lochte for a spot on the Olympic team in this event three years ago, so Lochte will be out for revenge tonight. Look for both to finish in the low-53 range, perhaps even sub-53. Meanwhile, Nick Thoman and David Plummer finished fourth and fifth, respectively, at Worlds last week. The field is a deep one, as always, with the likes of Eugene Godsoe, Ben Hesen, David Russell, and Kyle Owens as threats.

Prediction:
1. Lochte
2. Grevers
3. Thoman

Allison Schmitt is the class of the field in the women’s 200 free, having finished sixth in the event at Worlds last week. She holds the American record in the event at 1:54.96. Dagny Knutson joined Schmitt on the winning 800 free relay at Worlds last week, while Schmitt’s University of Georgia teammates Megan Romano, Chelsea Nauta, and Shannon Vreeland will challenge from the top three lanes. The surprise of the morning, however, was Lauren Perdue; Perdue cut more than a second from her seed time to qualify second in 1:59.29. Perdue will be the one who goes out fast and tries to hang on, just like she did at NCAAs, where she ended up finishing second to Schmitt.

Prediction:
1. Schmitt
2. Perdue
3. Knutson

The men’s 200 fly is a wide open affair tonight in the absence of World champion Michael Phelps. Tyler Clary finished ninth at World Championships, while Dan Madwed and Davis Tarwater both snuck under 1:58 for the top two seeds. Clary and Tarwater have by far the top two best times in this event of the field, 1:53.64 and 1:54.46, both from the suit era. Meanwhile, Mark Dylla and Bobby Bollier finished second and fourth, respectively, in this race last year. However, I think Clary will take this title and prove that he is one of America’s top two 200 butterflyers, even after his Shanghai disappointment.

Prediction:
1. Clary
2. Tarwater
3. Madwed

U.S. Nationals: Day One

The FINA World Championships ended just two days ago in Shanghai, but America’s best swimmers are already assembled at Stanford University for the ConocoPhillips USA Swimming National Championships. Five days of prelims/finals racing await the top swimmers in the country, with slots for the Pan American Games and World Junior Championships up for grabs. Right now I will take a look at the six National titles up for grabs tonight and who will be in the mix to earn those titles.

The meet kicks off with the women’s 100 fly, and Dana Vollmer is in the field. Last week, she clocked an American record-time of 56.47 and a relay split of 55.74. She also won the world title. Basically, she’s the overwhelming favorite. She clocked 57.68 in prelims and said on Twitter today that her goal for finals is a sub-57 swim. However, Olympic silver medalist Christine Magnuson is the three-time defending champion and will not go down without a fight. Magnuson did not swim especially well at Worlds or in prelims, so look for Olympian Elaine Breeden to challenge, as well as Western Kentucky’s Claire Donahue, who earned the second seed this morning in 58.91.

Prediction:
1. Vollmer
2. Magnuson
3. Donahue

The men’s 400 free should be a doozy tonight. Peter Vanderkaay has won this title three of the last four years, but he scratched out of this race after finishing fourth at World Champs last week. In his absence, Charlie Houchin led prelims with an impressive 3:48.03, faster than he swam at the World Champs last week. Matt McLean and Matt Patton both broke 3:50 as well, while defending runner-up Michael Klueh looms in fourth place. Look for Klueh to put the burners on tonight and make a run at Houchin. This final has some young blood in it, with the likes of Jackson Wilcox, Michael McBroom, Sean Ryan, Evan Pinion, Andrew Gemmell, and Connor Jaeger.

Prediction:
1. Houchin
2. Klueh
3. McLean

Katie Hoff and Elizabeth Beisel stand well clear of the pack in the women’s 200 IM after prelims, but the star of last week’s Worlds is in the field as well: Missy Franklin. Hoff and Beisel clocked respective times of 2:11.68 and 2:11.85, while Franklin won the slowest of the seeded heats in 2:14.80. I expect all three to be in the 2:10-range tonight, maybe better. Also watch Stanford’s Julia Smit, who put together a fourth-ranked 2:13.33 in prelims, but she has a lifetime best of 2:09.37 from the suit era. Two more World teamers, Morgan Scroggy and Teresa Crippen, qualified for this final, but neither impressed last week in Shanghai or made any championship finals.

Prediction:
1. Beisel
2. Franklin
3. Hoff

For me, the most anticipated race of the night and possibly of the meet is the men’s 100 breast. 2004 Olympic silver medalist Brendan Hansen is back, and he proved it in prelims with a top-ranked time of 1:00.17, the top time by an American since techsuits were banned two years ago. In fact, no American other than Hansen has ever been faster in a jammer. He should win tonight, and anything under 1:00 will set him up very well for next year. Meanwhile, Mike Alexandrov qualified second in 1:00.70, much faster than his 1:01.41 at Worlds which left him 25th, while Marcus Titus finished third in prelims in 1:00.80. American record-holder Eric Shanteau also made this final, while World Champs finals Mark Gangloff scratched.

Prediction:
1. Hansen
2. Shanteau
3. Alexandrov

Four members of the World Championships team made the final in the women’s 400 free: Chloe Sutton, Allison Schmitt, Elizabeth Beisel, and Dagny Knutson. Sutton finished ninth in this event in Shanghai before finishing fourth in the 800 free, while Schmitt took sixth in the 200 free. These two should enter as favorites for tonight. The pair finished third and second, respectively, behind Katie Hoff in last year’s final. Ashley Steenvoorden clocked a lifetime best time of 4:09.16 to lead all qualifiers into the final, but expect Sutton to pick up the pace and win tonight’s final in a 4:06.

Prediction:
1. Sutton
2. Schmitt
3. Beisel

The men’s 400 IM will bring the night to a close. Andrew Gemmell qualified for his second final of the night with a top-ranked time of 4:18.33, followed closely by Conor Dwyer (4:18.75) and Robert Margalis (4:19.01). Jack Brown and Tyler Harris also got under the 4:10 barrier to qualify fourth and fifth, respectively, while NCAA Champion Bill Cregar qualified ninth to earn a berth in the ten-man final. Most of the contenders are known for their back half push in the breaststroke and freestyle legs, so this race won’t be decided until the last 50. Look for Austen Thompson to take the race out hard and try to hang on.

Prediction:
1. Dwyer
2. Margalis
3. Gemmell

Also tonight, the pros from SwimMAC Carolina take to the blocks in the men’s 400 free relay. Line-ups have not yet been released, but look for the likes of Nick Brunelli, Josh Schneider, Cullen Jones, Davis Tarwater, Eugene Godsoe, and Tim Phillips to make a splash. Should be an exciting first night of competition in Palo Alto! Check out live results from the meet here or here, and you can watch live video at USASwimming.org and also at Universal Sports.

Shanghai 2011: Day Eight

The 14th edition of the FINA World Championships came to a close today in Shanghai, and the American team walked away with top honors. The Stars and Stripes posted double bookends on this final day of competition. Jessica Hardy and Ryan Lochte won the women’s 50 breast and men’s 400 IM, respectively. Elizabeth Beisel picked up steam in the penultimate event, the women’s 400 IM, before Nathan Adrian held off James Magnussen for an American win in the men’s medley relay. Additionally, Sweden’s Therese Alshammar made up for a disappointing loss in the 50 fly yesterday with a world title in the women’s 50 free before Liam Tancock earned Britain’s second gold of the week in an upset over France’s Camille Lacourt in the men’s 50 back.

In the most thrilling race of the night, China’s Sun Yang took down the oldest record in the books in the men’s 1500 free. Grant Hackett set the previous mark of 14:34.56 a full decade ago, and only this mark among men’s records survived the supersuit era. Sun took the lead from the outset but was already behind world record pace at the 100. However, he held his pace at two seconds above world record pace the entire race. When he flipped at the 1400 mark, he turned on the jets. He closed in a monster 25.94, faster even than any closing 50 in the 200, 400 or 800 free! And it was enough; Sun touched in 14:34.14, the fastest time ever.

All in all, an excellent week in Shanghai. There were some surprises, such as the tie in the women’s 100 free between Aliaksandra Herasimenia and Jeanette Ottesen, while some results stayed the same, such as in the men’s 200 fly, where Michael Phelps won his fifth World title in the event, the most ever. Beyond Sun’s world record today, China won five gold medals in the pool this week, clearly establishing them as the second-best team in the world. Comparatively, the usually-strong Australians won just two gold medals, both on the back of sprint star James Magnussen, while the formerly-premier Australian women did not win any races. The British team also looked weak most of the week but came around with two gold medals on the last two days to gain valuable momentum headed into a home Olympics next year.

The Americans, however, really dominated this meet. The women, winner of just two golds in Beijing and Rome, won eight here. Led by 16 year old superstar Missy Franklin and breaststroke queen Rebecca Soni, they took relay golds on the global stage for the first time in four years. They won golds in back, breast, free, and IM and as high as silver in free. It looks like the only weak spots are sprint to mid-distance free; no American finished higher than sixth in the 50, 100, 200, and 400 free. I picked Natalie Coughlin, Allison Schmitt, and Katie Hoff to medal in those events, but all fell off the fast pace required. Those swimmers and others will need to make big improvements to be factors in London next summer.

On the men’s side, the Americans looked great in the IM and butterfly races, and Peter Vanderkaay and Chad La Tourette answered some of the questions over the American distance program, though neither medaled. Americans did not overwhelm in backstroke and breaststroke events this week (other than a 1-3 finish in the 200 back), but with U.S. Nationals coming up this week, we will get a better idea of what is to expect in the those events in the next year. Again, problems showed in the sprint events; coming off a tough year, Nathan Adrian surprisingly failed to medal in either the 50 or 100 free, neither Cullen Jones (50 free) and Jason Lezak (100 free) advanced to the semi-finals of their respective races.

Most importantly, however, the Americans came in third in the 400 free relay. Michael Phelps, Garrett Weber-Gale, Jason Lezak, and Adrian all posted slower-than-expected times to come in behind an on-fire team from Down Under and the solid French. Again, we will find out more at Nationals when former relay members such as Matt Grevers take to the blocks, but the American sprinters will once again need to take their game to the next level if they want to return that gold to American waters in that event in London. The big storylines headed into next summer’s Olympics are still developing, but the American goal of bringing this title back to American waters will surely make headlines.

Two final plotlines, however, will stand above all others in the next year: the showdowns between Michael Phelps and Ryan Lochte, and the quest for more world records. Lochte, clearly the better-prepared of the two, earned the upper-hand over Phelps in both the 200 free and 200 IM this week. With both headed into a full year of hard training, both of those races should be fast and furious in a year. Meanwhile, Lochte and Sun Yang have broken the ice of the world record-drought, and more are to come. Maybe we’ll see another record broken at this week’s Nationals, or maybe no mark will fall until London in a year. Regardless, both of these storylines will steal attention of not just swim fans but also mainstream media in the run-up to London.

Finally, the prediction contest results. In case anyone forgot, I am the swim geek.

1. David Rieder 364
2. Matt Salzberg 363
3. Chris DeSantis 339
4. Melissa German 319
4. Braden Keith 319
6. John Liu 310
7. John Lohn 308
8. Jerry Shandrew 302
8. Tom Willdridge 302
10. Kristine Sorenson 288
11. Sebastian Schwenke 228

Shanghai 2011: Day Eight Finals Preview

The last session of finals is coming up at the 14th FINA World Championships in Shanghai, and after a long week of racing, the end is in sight. With seven more finals on tap for the final night, I’ll do a quick preview of each right now. First up is the women’s 50 breast, where American Jessica Hardy is expected to win gold for the second time, after first taking the title in 2007. She clocked 30.20 in yesterday’s prelims, just off her top-ranked time of 30.17 from May. I think she’ll cruise to the gold here and swim around the 30.03 she posted at Pan Pacs last summer. I don’t think she will get to her world record of 29.80, but I predict she breaks 30. Meanwhile, Rebecca Soni and Yuliya Efimova will battle for the silver, while Aussies Leiston Pickett and Leisel Jones look to break up the trio of Dave Salo-trained swimmers gunning for the medals.

Prediction:
1. Hardy
2. Soni
3. Efimova

Ryan Lochte will go for his fifth gold of the World Championships when he takes to the blocks for the 400 IM. He hasn’t swum many 400 IMs this season, but look for him to put together an awesome swim and lead the world rankings for the third consecutive year. I think he will sneak under Michael Phelps’ Championships Record of 4:06.22. Tyler Clary took bronze behind Lochte in the 200 back, but look for him to do one better here as the Americans go for their third straight 1-2 finish in the event. Phelps and Lochte, respectively, pulled it off in 2007, while Lochte and Clary matched the feat in 2009. Hungarian Laszlo Cseh won this title in 2005 and medaled in 2003 and 2009, and he could be in the mix, along with teammate David Verraszto, Brazil’s Thiago Pereira, Japan’s Yuya Horihata, and home favorite Wang Chengxiang.

UPDATE: Pereira did not show up for his prelim heat, despite finishing fourth in Rome.

Prediction:
1. Lochte
2. Clary
3. Cseh

This field in the women’s 50 free is among the most wide open of the meet, but I think it comes down to the Netherlands’ Ranomi Kromowidjojo and Sweden’s Therese Alshammar for the gold. Kromowidjojo, the World Short Course champ, is the youngest of the Dutch sprint stars, and she clocked 24.56 in the semi-finals to lead the field. Alshammar, meanwhile, has been winning international medals for almost two decades. She took the third spot into the final after finishing runner-up in the 50 fly earlier in the night. 100 free co-champions Aliaksandra Herasimenia and Jeanette Ottesen both made the final, along with American Jessica Hardy.

Prediction:
1. Alshammar
2. Kromowidjojo
3. Herasimenia

Camille Lacourt has long been talked about as the favorite for the men’s 50 back after clocking 24.07 to win last year’s European title. That time missed Liam Tancock’s world record in the event of 24.04 by just 0.03. Tancock, however, made a statement in the semi-final with a 24.62 clocking. The race between these two men should be fast and furious, but I give a slight edge to Tancock since Lacourt has shown that he is not at his best this week. Meanwhile, South Africa’s Gerhard Zandberg will also be in the mix, perhaps even up with the top-two, and he won the title back in 2007 before taking bronze in 2009. I also think Spain’s Aschwin Wildeboer and USA’s Nick Thoman will be tough to beat in the final.

Prediction:
1. Tancock
2. Lacourt
3. Wildeboer

One of the most anticipated races of the last day is the men’s 1500 free, and the buzz is that Sun Yang will break Grant Hackett’s decade-old world record of 14:34.56. So far, only one record has fallen this week. I predict that Sun will pull it off. All of us viewers at home will have to mute our live video feeds as the crowd goes nuts and lifts the roof off the building. Sun looked easy in prelims as he alone broke 14:50, clocking 14:48.13. Ryan Cochrane, the defending silver medalist, looked easy in winning his heat to qualify fifth, and he has a big swim in him in that final. Gergo Kis clocked a strong 14:52.72 for the second seed, but I think he might not have anymore time to drop. Thus, I am picking American Chad La Tourette to move up from the fourth seed to take third. Reigning World and Olympic champion Ous Mellouli did not qualify for the final.

Prediction:
1. Sun
2. Cochrane
3. La Tourette

China’s Ye Shiwen blazed home in the women’s 200 IM to steal the gold medal, and I think she doubles up in the 400 IM. She will be well behind going into the freestyle, but she can catch anyone who is three seconds ahead, just like she did in the 200 IM. Meanwhile, world record-holder Stephanie Rice looked good in the 200 IM to finish fourth, and I think she takes a podium spot here. American Elizabeth Beisel has a big opening for the top-three here, with many of the top names in the event swimming poorly, such as Mireia Belmonte, Kirsty Coventry, and Katinka Hosszu. I predict Beisel to edge Britain’s Hannah Miley, who had been my original pick for bronze.

Prediction:
1. Ye
2. Rice
3. Beisel

The men’s medley relay will bring the competition to an end, and it should be a good one. Many have talked about the French posing a serious threat to the United States, but this is the Americans’ race to lose. Nick Thoman or David Plummer (or possibly Ryan Lochte) will keep them within striking distance of the French backstroker, either Camille Lacourt or Jeremy Stravius. Reports indicate that Eric Shanteau will handle the breaststroke leg instead of 100 breast finalist Mark Gangloff, and he should gain ground, as Hughes Duboscq did not look good this meet. Michael Phelps should take a huge lead over Fred Bousquet on the fly leg, and Nathan Adrian will hold off William Meynard for the win. The Aussies, anchored by James “the Missile” Magnussen, should earn the bronze, especially since legs from Germany and Japan have underperformed in Shanghai.

Prediction:
1. United States
2. France
3. Australia

Shanghai 2011: Day Seven

The six finals on day seven in Shanghai featured another six opportunities for exciting and fast racing. Veteran Therese Alshammar went into the women’s 50 fly as the huge favorite, only for Inge Dekker to get the better of her on the home stretch. No one caught Cesar Cielo in the men’s 50 free, as he posted the largest margin of victory in history. Missy Franklin’s continued on the fast track to superstardom with the third-fastest time ever in the women’s 200 back for the gold, while Australia’s Belinda Hocking grabbed the fourth spot on the all-time list in an impressive silver medal showing for Australia. Then Michael Phelps was back in the pool, cruising to gold in the 100 fly, before Rebecca Adlington produced on of the most impressive final two laps I’ve ever seen to track down Lotte Friis for the 800 free win and her first world title.

Over the past few years, many have talked about the potential of the British women’s team headed into the London Olympics. Adlington kicked off these talks in Beijing with a double gold medal finish, and things looked good in Rome in 2009 when Gemma Spofforth took gold in the 100 back, Joanne Jackson won three freestyle medals, Fran Halsall taking world silver in the 100 free, Hannah Miley nearly stepped up onto the medal podium in the 400 IM, and the team took an impressive relay bronze in the 800 free. However, some of the team’s performances have gradually taken a dip, including slower-than-expected championship times. The team underperformed at last year’s European and Commonwealth Games, with teams ranging from Australia to Hungary stealing the show away in key events

In Shanghai, before today, the British women had won just two medals in Shanghai, Adlington’s silver in the 400 free, Ellen Gandy’s bronze in the 200 fly. Halsall had come up short in the 100 free, while Spofforth missed the semi-final of the 100 back. Adlington’s monster final 100 split of 59.65, faster even than her opening split of 59.69, changed the momentum. After two full World Champs meets of struggle and continually coming up short, it looked like Adlington’s third trip to the global showcase would once again end in disappointment. However, today she showed heart and guts to overcome Friis’ lead and take the world title. That win will provide the springboard to a nation whose hopes and dreams in the pool rest on the performances a year from this week away. Additionally, look for that momentum to carry into tomorrow’s competition, where Liam Tancock (50 back) and Hannah Miley (400 IM) are favorites.

Another women’s team concluded a momentum shift today that saw them reclaim the title as top women’s team in the world. In 2008, the American women won just two gold medals (of the 12 total U.S. wins): Natalie Coughlin in the 100 back and Rebecca Soni in the 200 breast. They won no relays at those Olympics. In addition to that duo, only four other American women, Katie Hoff, Margaret Hoelzer, Dara Torres, and Christine Magnuson earned individual hardware after a string of disappointing performances. In Rome the next year, things did not improve much. Soni (100 breast) and Ariana Kukors (200 IM) won gold, but again no American relays did so, and of the three teams only the 800 free relay medaled. The 400 free relay took fourth, while the 400 medley team did not advance to the final.

At this meet in Shanghai, the team has shown considerable improvement. Missy Franklin emerged as a true superstar, winning gold in the 200 back and posting the top time of the meet in the 200 free. Soni won both the 100 and 200 breast, while Dana Vollmer earned top honors in the 100 fly. Meanwhile, Jessica Hardy is favored to make it one more win in tomorrow’s 50 breast. Coughlin, Kukors, and Ziegler all won medals, while Hoff, Allison Schmitt, Chloe Sutton, and Elizabeth Beisel have all been in the mix. At least one American has qualified for 15 of 16 possible finals so far.

Most importantly, however, the American women won two of the three relays. Not only did they win, they dominated both. Franklin, Dagny Knutson, Hoff, and Schmitt reclaimed the 800 free relay for the first time since 2007, while Coughlin, Soni, Vollmer, and Franklin earned the medley relay title that America last won at the Worlds back in 1998. That last fact brought tears to the eyes of Coughlin, the lead-off swimmer on this relay 10 of the last 11 years. Of the 12 golds Team USA has already won in Shanghai, the women have won half of them. Once again, for the first time in almost a decade, the American women are at the top of the world.

With one day and seven finals left at the World Championships, here are the standings in my prediction contest. The win will come down to Matt Salzberg and me. Check back later for a preview of the last session of swimming in Shanghai.

1. David Rieder 304
2. Matt Salzberg 300
3. Chris DeSantis 266
4. Melissa German 263
4. John Lohn 263
6. Braden Keith 260
7. John Liu 252
8. Jerry Shandrew 238
9. Kristine Sorenson 236
10. Tom Willdridge 235
11. Sebastian Schwenke 190

Shanghai 2011: Day Six

Another fast day of swimming is in the books in Shanghai with five more swimmers walking away with gold… uh, actually six more. In my finals preview yesterday, I mentioned six of the eight swimmers in the 100 free final; the two I skipped, Denmark’s Jeanette Ottesen and Belarus’ Aliaksandra Herasimenia, came from nowhere and ended up tying for the gold medal. Meanwhile, the Ryan Lochte train kept rolling through the 200 back, obliterating everyone, while Rebecca Soni hung on for gold in the women’s 200 breast. Kosuke Kitajima led through 175 in the men’s 200 breast, but he could not hang on as Hungary’s Daniel Gyurta roared home to his second consecutive world title in the event. Finally, the Lochte train made one more stop in the 800 free relay as he roared past Fabien Gilot for his fourth gold medal of the week.

Meanwhile, six more finals are on the agenda for tomorrow’s finals, beginning with the women’s 50 fly. Sweden’s Therese Alshammar holds the world record (25.07), textile best and 2011’s top-ranked time (25.37), and the number one seed for the final (25.52). Despite losing out in a tight finish back in 2009, I think she will be untouchable here and reclaim her world title that she previously won in 2007. Dutchwoman Inge Dekker, China’s Lu Ying, and Alshammar’s teammate Sarah Sjostrom will also start from the middle lanes, while American Dana Vollmer is a darkhorse from lane eight, barely qualifying just minutes after competing in the 100 free final.

Prediction:
1. Alshammar
2. Lu
3. Vollmer

Brazil finished 1-2 in the semi-finals of the men’s 50 free. Bruno Fratus clocked 21.76, while his more-decorated teammate Cesar Cielo checked in at 21.79. Cielo is the reigning World and Olympic champion and world record-holder, and I think he’ll take the win in the final. However, I’m not sure if Fratus has anything left in the tank. American Nathan Adrian qualified third in 21.94, and Adrian will try to make up for a disappointing sixth-place finish in the 100 free. The field is wide open, especially after defending silver medalist Fred Bousquet missed the semi-finals, and an attack could come from any of the eight qualifiers. Watch Olympic bronze medalist Alain Bernard in lane eight as a darkhorse.

Prediction:
1. Cielo
2. Adrian
3. Fratus

American Missy Franklin has established herself as the clear favorite for gold in the final of the women’s 200 back. She clocked a personal-best time of 2:07.71 in prelims to lead qualifiers before recording a 2:05.90 in her semi-final to break Margaret Hoelzer’s American record of 2:06.09 from 2008. Franklin is now the third-fastest performer in history, and both ahead of her (Zimbabwe’s Kirsty Coventry and Russia’s Anastasia Zueva) missed the cut for the final. She is the prohibitive favorite for gold tomorrow in the final. Meanwhile, I predict fellow American Elizabeth Beisel to take the silver. With Australians Meagan Nay and Belinda Hocking and Britain’s Elizabeth Simmonds not swimming at their respective bests and many gold medal favorites missing the final, Beisel has a real opening here.

Prediction:
1. Franklin
2. Beisel
3. Hocking

Next up is the men’s 100 fly. Kenya’s Jason Dunford has a lot of speed and might take the lead at the start, but this race will be all about USA’s Michael Phelps. Exerting very little energy, he clocked 51.47 in the semi-final for the top seed and holds the world’s fastest time at 51.32 from last month. I expect Phelps to blast a low-50 swim in the final and get down to Ian Crocker’s textile best of 50.40 from the Montreal World Champs six years ago. Meanwhile, the race for silver is wide open, with top contenders including Japan’s Takuro Fujii, American Tyler McGill, Australia’s Geoff Huegill, and Poland’s Konrad Czerniak.

Prediction:
1. Phelps
2. Huegill
3. McGill

In the final heat of the women’s 800 free, Olympic champion Rebecca Adlington and defending World champion Lotte Friis pushed each other to respective times of 8:22.27 and 8:23.07, and no one is within 4.5 seconds. However, no other contender had nearly the level of competition within the heat as those two, so despite qualifying fourth in 8:28.28, I expect American Kate Ziegler to be a big threat. Ziegler won world titles in this event in 2005 and 2007 and also won the Pan Pacific title last year. Fellow American Chloe Sutton rebounded from ninth-place finishes in both the 400 and 1500 to qualify third here in 8:27.72, but I don’t think she can hang with the big three.

Prediction:
1. Adlington
2. Friis
3. Ziegler

The women’s medley relay brings to a close the penultimate night of action in Shanghai, and I predict the Americans to win gold for the first time since 1998. Rebecca Soni (breast) and Dana Vollmer (fly) each won gold in their respective 100 races, Natalie Coughlin won bronze in the 100 back, and Missy Franklin split a blazing 52.99 on the 400 free relay. China, meanwhile, won gold in the 100 back with Zhao Jing, bronzes in the 100 breast (Ji Liping) and 100 fly (Lu Ying), while Tang Yi split 53.12 to anchor the 400 free relay. Australia will lead off with Emily Seebohm and Leisel Jones, while Alicia Coutts is their fastest flyer and freestyler. Replacing her with either Jessicah Schipper (fly) or Yolane Kukla (free) will hurt. Another option is to swim Seebohm on free, Coutts on fly, and Hocking on back.

Prediction:
1. United States
2. China
3. Australia

In 2009, the Americans fell victim to a deep field and missed qualifying for finals. To avoid a repeat, they will need to swim some strong legs during prelims. The obvious B-team quartet is Elizabeth Pelton (back), Amanda Beard (breast), Christine Magnuson (fly), and Kara Lynn Joyce (free), but I don’t think risking missing finals just to use these swimmers is worth it. Jessica Hardy is another option for either the breast or free leg, but she will have the prelims of the 50 free and 50 breast in the same session. Some finals swimmers will have to swim twice in order to be safe in qualifying.

In prelims tonight/tomorrow morning, depending on where you are, we will see a swim-off for first alternate in the men’s 50 free. Australia’s Matt Targett and Russia’s Sergey Fesikov tied for ninth place in 22.09, prompting the need for a swim-off, despite the fact that neither man will go through to the final regardless. Definitely could be interesting to keep an eye on, and maybe one or both will swim a time in the 21 range. The calm water in a swim-off situation combined with impressive performances already in Shanghai for both men could lead to some nice fireworks for prelims.

Finally, Eric Shanteau provided more good news for the American men’s medley relay today. He finished fourth in the 200 breast today in 2:09.28, much faster than last year’s best of 2:10.09. Thus, he should be able to put up a split in the 59-mid range on the relay, which should be enough to put the Americans close enough to the lead where Michael Phelps can crush his opponents and Nathan Adrian cruise home to victory. With Hughes Duboscq missing finals in either breaststroke event, the news keeps getting better for the American men in their quest for gold.

After six days of competition in Shanghai, the scores in the prediction contest are as follows. Looks like a two-man race for the top spot, and I am in the lead!

1. David Rieder 252
2. Matt Salzberg 248
3. Melissa German 223
4. Chris DeSantis 219
5. Braden Keith 218
6. John Lohn 214
7. John Liu 212
8. Kristine Sorenson 208
9. Jerry Shandrew 196
10. Tom Willdridge 187
11. Sebastian Schwenke 152

Shanghai 2011: Day Six Finals Preview

The sixth night of finals will feature five more races for medals. Things will kick off with the women’s 100 free final. Olympic and World champion Britta Steffen withdrew from the competition after finishing 16th in prelims, but she was not expected to be a major factor in this 100 free regardless. The Netherlands’ Femke Heemskerk split a 52.46 on the 400 free relay on opening night to anchor the Dutch to a world title, and she continued her top form with a strong time of 1:55.54 in the semi-finals of the 200 free. Meanwhile, she will have to deal with countrywoman Ranomi Kromowidjojo, the top-ranked swimmer in the world in 2010; and Brit Fran Halsall, who led the semi-finals with a time of 53.48, the fastest this year. Aussie Alicia Coutts has already won two silver medals in Shanghai, losing the gold in tight finishes in both, while Americans Natalie Coughlin and Dana Vollmer have far more to give than the 54.05 that left the two tied for sixth in the semi-finals.

Prediction:
1. Heemskerk
2. Halsall
3. Kromowidjojo

USA’s Ryan Lochte goes for his third gold medal of the meet in the men’s 200 back. Having already won the 200 free and set a world record in the 200 IM, he should be able to take the win here. He qualified first for the final in 1:55.65. I do not think he’ll get down to Aaron Peirsol’s world record of 1:51.92, but he could reach into the 1:53-low range or possibly even 1:52-high. Japan’s Ryosuke Irie finished right behind Lochte in the semi-final, and he took the silver behind the now-retired Peirsol at the 2009 World Champs in Rome. He is just as strong on top of the water as Lochte, but Lochte will hammer the underwaters, which really could make the difference here. Another American, Tyler Clary, grabbed third in the semi-finals in 1:56.00, and I really think the medalists will be these three men. Clary won silver behind Lochte at Pan Pacs last year. Sticking with my original prediction here.

Prediction:
1. Lochte
2. Irie
3. Clary

The women’s 200 breast will be all about Rebecca Soni. Soni cruised to gold in the 100 distance, leading the field in each round by more than a second. She clocked 2:21.03 in the semi-final today, more than 2.5 seconds ahead of second seed Yuliya Efimova. I think she has more in the tank still; she will challenge Annamay Pierse’s world record of 2:20.12, but I predict she will come up just short. She will, however, beat Leisel Jones’ textile best of 2:20.54 and her top time from last year, a 2:20.69 posted at the Pan Pacific Championships. I predict Pierse to edge Efimova for the silver medal, while defending champion Nadja Higl sits out in lane eight. Having done absolutely nothing in the event since winning the title in Rome two years ago, I do not expect much, but she is the darkhorse of the bunch.

Prediction:
1. Soni
2. Pierse
3. Efimova

After finishing a disappointing fourth in the 100 breast, Kosuke Kitajima is back for the men’s 200 breast. He led the semi-final qualifiers in 2:08.81, just ahead of Daniel Gyurta’s 2:08.92, but reports from Shanghai indicate Kitajima might not have much time to drop from this swim. Kitajima’s teammate Naoya Tomita leads the world rankings at 2:08.25, but he did not make it to the final here. Germany’s Christian Von Lehm posted a 2:09.44 in the semi-final to qualify third, after swimming a 2:08.97 eight weeks ago. Eric Shanteau, the runner-up to Gyurta in Rome, won his semi-final heat in 2:10.03 and will be pushing for a medal as well. I predict Gyurta to defend his title here.

Prediction:
1. Gyurta
2. Kitajima
3. Shanteau

The American men should cruise in the 800 free relay to an easy win. Ryan Lochte and Michael Phelps went 1-2 in the 200 free final, while Peter Vanderkaay has been swimming well, including an impressive fourth place-finish in the 400 free. Ricky Berens, Dave Walters, and Conor Dwyer will battle for rights to swim the fourth leg of the relay. Meanwhile, 100 free winner James Magnussen might put in a leg for Australia after his teammates in the 200 free underwhelmed in the individual event. Sun Yang will lead the Chinese charge, while Russia won silver in the last Olympics and Worlds and had two swimmers in the individual 200 free final.

Prediction:
1. United States
2. Russia
3. China

Shanghai 2011: Day Five

Another day is in the books at the World Championships in Shanghai. On this fifth day of competition, we saw perhaps the best fireworks of the week thus far, including the first world record of the championships. Not only that, but also the first world record of 2011 and the first long course mark set since December of 2009. Ryan Lochte went out fast and did what he needed to do to not only get ahead of super-rival Michael Phelps, but with 15 meters to go, I saw something I had not seen in a long time; Lochte’s fingertips had come into contact with the red line that represents world record pace. From there, he put his head down and finished with enough power to beat the 1:54.10 he clocked in Rome two years ago. The clock said 1:54.00, faster than anybody had ever swum.

Check out these screenshots, courtesy of the Universal Sports race video. It had been too long since we had scen images such as this.




In my prediction blog yesterday, I said that Ryan Lochte would get down to his mark. I also said that Michael Phelps would break into the 1:54-range to finish second. However, I did not expect Phelps to show such staying power on the back half to push Lochte all the way to the finish as he did. Certainly, I did not think Phelps would beat his personal best time. But Phelps clocked 1:54.16 today, faster than the 1:54.33 he swam at the Beijing Olympics for his sixth of eight gold medals (and sixth world record). And he apparently did this off limited training? Next year in London, with both at their peak, both men will be faster and into the 1:53-range; only “epic” will describe that race.

Up next, in the men’s 100 free final, James Magnussen showed the world that he is a force to be reckoned with in the two-lapper. In 47.63, he backed up the 47.49 relay lead-off he notched on Sunday to beat out Canada’s Brent Hayden (47.95) and France’s William Meynard (48.00), with world record-holder Cesar Cielo fourth (48.01). America, meanwhile, had to settle for sixth place with Nathan Adrian (48.23). However, this race has shown such volatility over the past few years; a different man has led the world rankings every year since 2006. The places in this event will be once again scrambled in the year to come, much to the relief of American fans, but I’m not so sure about the winner.

James Magnussen made his first international impact at the Commonwealth Games, where he anchored Australia’s 400 free relay team to gold with a 48.57 split. Not long after, he won Australia’s 100 free national title in 48.29. Despite a bout of pneumonia shortly before Worlds, he still managed to drop 47s in the 100 free three times this week; in the past year and a half, only one other man has broken the barrier. And on top of all this, he is just 20 years old. In a traditionally age-dominated race, he has nearly unlimited potential.

Lochte and Magnussen made headlines today, but another swimmer made jaws drop worldwide. In the women’s 50 back, Russia’s Anastasia Zueva made up for so many close calls to win her first world title, while Japan’s Aya Terakawa made up for a disappointing fifth-place finish in the 100 back with a silver medal. Meanwhile, American Missy Franklin snuck in for a surprise bronze medal, clocking 28.01. But she wasn’t close to being done; after leading off Team USA’s 800 free relay in prelims in a personal-best time of 1:56.98, she returned in finals to clock 1:55.06 on the lead-off leg. Not only did Franklin cut 2.5 seconds off her lifetime best in a day, but she missed the American record by a mere tenth, coming up just shy of the two year old mark of 1:54.96 that Allison Schmitt clocked in a polyurethane suit. Moreover, she became the fifth-fastest swimmer of all time in the event!

Franklin carried the American team to the win, as Dagny Knutson, Katie Hoff, and Allison Schmitt comfortably held off teams from Australia and China. Ironically, Franklin did not even qualify for this relay in the first place! She clocked 1:59.17 to finish tenth at Nationals last summer. Now, however, things have changed. Already with one medal of each color, Franklin heads into her signature 200 back as a newly-minted favorite. Her best time right now is 2:07.96, set back in March. At this point, breaking Margaret Hoelzer’s American record of 2:06.09 in route to a gold medal could not be considered a surprise.

Additionally, it looks like she’ll anchor the American medley relay, a team which is an easy choice for gold after strong individual performances from Natalie Coughlin (back), Rebecca Soni (breast), and Dana Vollmer. Franklin popped a 52.99 leg on the 400 free relay on the way to a silver medal there; no American has ever bested that split in a textile suit. As Peter Busch said on today’s Morning Swim Show, her performances today in Shanghai officially completed her transition from “star” to “superstar.”

In tomorrow’s prelims (or tonight’s, depending on where you are), we will see the opening rounds of six different events. To start things off, Cesar Cielo and Nathan Adrian will attempt to make up for disappointing performances in the men’s 100 free with medal runs in the 50, but they will have to fend off a tough Frenchman named Fred Bousquet, the first man to break 21 seconds. Meanwhile, 100 fly gold medalist Dana Vollmer takes on veteran Therese Alshammar in the 50 fly. Michael Phelps returns to water for the 100 fly, an event in which he has recently dominated, while perennial silver medalist Milorad Cavic has aims on making up for a lackluster 50 fly.

Franklin takes to the blocks in the women’s 200 back against double Olympic champion Kirsty Coventry, 100 back champion Zhao Jing, and a tough, wide open field. American Elizabeth Beisel won bronze in the event in 2009, while Australians Meagan Nay and Belinda Hocking have both impressed in the event thus far this year. American Chloe Sutton will try to rebound from a pair of ninth-place finishes in the 400 and 1500 free when she swims the 800, while Rebecca Adlington, Lotte Friis, and Kate Ziegler should battle for gold.

Looks like a two-person race in the prediction contest. Will I be able to retake the lead from challenger Matt Salzberg?

1. Matt Salzberg 208
2. David Rieder 202
3. Melissa German 187
4. Chris DeSantis 182
5. John Liu 179
6. Kristine Sorenson 178
7. Braden Keith 178
8. John Lohn 160
9. Jerry Shandrew 148
10. Tom Willdridge 142
11. Sebastian Schwenke 132

Shanghai 2011: Day Four

At this halfway point of the 2011 World Championships, I need to start this blog with an apology. I received a prediction submission from John Liu, more commonly known as “John26” in comment sections on various blogs. However, his predictions did not end up on the spreadsheet I am using to score the contest until I realized my mistake today. Naturally, John’s picks will be considered in the prediction contest from this point on, and we now have eleven competitors. You can check out a copy of that spreadsheet here, and these are the scores after four days and 17 finals. In the lead, as expected, is the swim geek!

1. David Rieder 171
2. Matt Salzberg 167
3. Chris DeSantis 161
4. Kristine Sorenson 155
5. John Liu 152
6. Melissa German 151
7. Braden Keith 142
8. John Lohn 130
9. Jerry Shandrew 119
10. Tom Willdridge 114
11. Sebastian Schwenke 109

Now, onto the action we saw today in Shanghai. Federica Pellegrini won yet another world title in a race in which the three leaders at the halfway mark fell back to the bottom three places. Sun Yang, subject of all the hype of the swimming world coming into the meet, finally won his first world title, while the distance dominator of recent years, Ous Mellouli, fell out of the medals in a disappointing race (more on that before the 1500). Felipe Silva showed why semi-final times do not decide gold medalists whilst bringing a storm with a controversial dolphin kick on the finish. And Michael Phelps reminded everyone, especially Takeshi Matsuda and Wu Peng, that he indeed is Michael Phelps.

After getting through a recap in record time, I’ll take a look at the finals on tap for tomorrow in Shanghai. It all begins with the men’s 200 IM, another showdown between Phelps and Lochte, Lochte and Phelps. I think Phelps goes out hard, just like he has already in the 200 free and 200 fly and takes a lead on Lochte down the first lap, but Lochte will stick to him on back and spring ahead on breast. Phelps’ middle strokes do look better than last year, so I think he’ll finish in the 1:54-range, but Lochte will break the world record and take down the 1:54 barrier. Hungary’s Laszlo Cseh is the third qualifier for the final, but he looked like he expended a lot of energy in his semi-final. Likewise, Brazil’s Thiago Pereira will really hurt down the last lap of the race, leaving an opening for Austria’s Markus Rogan.

Prediction:
1. Lochte
2. Phelps
3. Rogan

Up next, the big men take to the blocks for the final of the 100 free. Brazil’s Cesar Cielo is the defending champion and world record-holder, but his confidence and expectations seem relatively low. He did not beat his season-best time in the 50 fly, and thus I do not know if he can improve on the 48.26 he swam at the Paris Open. Australia’s James Magnussen led off the 400 free relay in 47.49, and he is the favorite for gold with a monster back half. American Nathan Adrian qualified second behind Magnussen, 47.90 to 48.05, and he probably has the best shot to stay with the young Aussie. Don’t sleep on 2007 World Champ Brent Hayden or 2010 Short Course Worlds silver medalist Fabien Gilot.

Prediction:
1. Magnussen
2. Adrian
3. Cielo

Little more than a second separates the finalists in the women’s 200 fly, and I think almost any of the eight could touch the wall first. British swimmers Jemma Lowe and Ellen Gandy won their respective semi-final heats, but I think China’s Olympic champion, Liu Zige, has another gear after losing some ground on the back half in the semi-final. Look for Liu and teammate Jiao Liuyang to go out fast and try to hang on. The field consists of two Brits, two Chinese, and two Aussies, including triple Olympic champion Stephanie Rice and two-time defending World Champ Jessicah Schipper.

Prediction:
1. Liu
2. Lowe
3. Schipper

The women’s 50 back is even more wide open than the aforementioned 200 fly, and I would not be surprised at all to see any of the eight swimmers in the field take the gold. Russia’s Anastasia Zueva is the top seed, and she will be hungry after missing gold in the 100 back by just one one-hundredth of a second. China’s Zhao Jing, who won that 100 back and won the 50 back at the Worlds in Rome, opted not to compete in the 50 this time around. Teammate Gao Chang has twice before won medals at Worlds but never gold. Japan’s Aya Terakawa entered the meet as a medal favorite in both the 50 and 100 back but underperformed in the 100. Belarus’ Aliaksandra Herasimenia once tied the world record in this event, while American teenage sensation Missy Franklin will aim for a medal here in preparation for her big event, the 200 back.

Prediction:
1. Zueva
2. Herasimenia
3. Terakawa

The Australians look like the team to beat in the women’s 800 free relay after Kylie Palmer won silver in the individual 200 free, and teammate Bronte Barratt also made the final. The deciding factors will be how their younger and inexperienced teammates step up. The Americans will look to veterans Allison Schmitt and Dana Vollmer to lead the team, while youngsters Dagny Knutson and potentially Missy Franklin will join the team in the quest to improve on the silver they won at the 2009 Worlds. Disappointing swims by Katie Hoff and Morgan Scroggy have thrown this relay’s potential into doubt. And finally, there are the defending World Champions, the Chinese. Although none of the entries into the individual 200 free performed well, China has a tendency to step up their game in this relay. With the British and Hungarian teams underperforming and France lacking a fourth strong leg, I don’t think anyone can touch the top-three; the only question is order of finish.

Prediction:
1. Australia
2. United States
3. China

Shanghai 2011: Day Three

All year, the swim geeks of the world have hyped the men’s 200 free as the race of the World Championships. There was the superstar and his perpetual challenger. The world record-holder and his young Russian and French rivals were in the field. And on top of that, another man started the final as the odds-on favorite; after winning the 400 free in dominating fashion on the meet’s first night, South Korea’s Tae Hwan Park had a strong chance to do one better than the silver medal he won at the 2008 Beijing Olympics. Meanwhile, many questioned whether the aforementioned superstar, none other than Michael Phelps, even had a chance to medal.

The two Americans took the race out from the start, and Phelps led for the first half of the race. But off the second wall, Ryan Lochte showed his superiority, dominating that lap and holding off Phelps for the world title. Lochte posted a personal best time of 1:44.44, crushing his old mark of 1:45.30 set in winning the Pan Pacific Championships last year. In textile suits, Lochte is now the third-fastest swimmer in history, trailing just Phelps and Aussie great Ian Thorpe. Phelps, meanwhile, touched at 1:44.79, his second-fastest time ever in a textile suit behind the 1:43.86 he clocked at the 2007 World Championships to wipe Thorpe’s name from the record books.

In a tight scramble to the wall behind Lochte, Phelps barely out-touched Germany’s Paul Biedermann (1:44.88) and Park (1:44.92), with France’s Yannick Agnel finishing fifth in 1:44.99. Going into the race, China’s Sun Yang had held the world’s top time at 1:44.99, so six men have broken the 1:45 mark this year for the first time ever! Yep, even with the high tech suits, no more than five men have ever broken 1:45 in a year. In 2009, Biedermann, Phelps, Russia’s Danila Izotov, and Americans Ricky Berens and Dave Walters broke the barrier, and other than that, never more than two in one year have done so. While the top-end speed seen with the suits – such as Biedermann’s 1:42.00 world record – is gone, the hype and pressure have pushed this event to new, never-before-seen heights in depth. All of this cumulated in one of them most exciting races I’ve ever seen.

To be honest, the rest of today’s races were very predictable; in fact, I predicted all four of the remaining winners in my original predictions last week. All that I took away was more good news for the American medley relays. In the men’s 100 back, Nick Thoman and David Plummer recorded respective times of 53.01 and 53.04, not far away from Frenchmen Camille Lacourt and Jeremy Stravius, who tied for gold in 52.76. Some had predicted a French lead of a second on the backstroke lead on the medley relay on their way to a potential gold. Now, with a clear American advantage on fly and even breast and staying close enough on back, the chance of a French upset is quickly diminishing.

On a related note, France now faces a dilemma as to which backstroker to use on the lead-off for the medley relay after today’s tie. While conventional wisdom would say to use Lacourt on that leg, I believe Stravius is the best bet. On the final night of competition, Lacourt will swim the 50 back final, where he is the big favorite after posting a time of 24.07 in 2010, just 0.03 off the world record. Stravius, meanwhile, is far less likely to make the final of that event. If, as I expect, Lacourt is the only Frenchmen in that final, France would be doing a disservice to their team by using Lacourt for the second time in the session.

For the women, Rebecca Soni clocked a relatively pedestrian time of 1:05.05 for gold in the 100 breast. Many had predicted a world record (1:04.45) or at least an improvement over her semi-final time of 1:04.91, but she now holds the top-seven times recorded in the 100 breast this year. Still, it didn’t matter; Soni defeated Olympic gold medalist Leisel Jones by 1.20 seconds, as Jones came in second at 1:06.25. China’s Ji Liping hit the wall at 1:06.52 for third. Soni has established a clear lead on the Aussies and Chinese in breast, a huge boost for the U.S. medley relay. With Natalie Coughlin showing her ability to at the very least stay within a tenth or two of her competition in the 100 back and Dana Vollmer winning the 100 fly, the American women look pretty golden right now as well.

Four more finals await us tomorrow, including Michael Phelps in his best event, the 200 fly. Japan’s Takeshi Matsuda and China’s Chen Yin qualified ahead of Phelps, but Phelps noticeably turned off the gas the last lap of his semi-final swim and had a terrible finish. I think Phelps turns it on tomorrow and crush his competition from the start. Matsuda is the easy favorite for silver, but I think almost anyone in the final could grab one of the minor medals.

Prediction:
1. Phelps
2. Matsuda
3. Jukic

Dutchwoman Femke Heemskerk obliterated the field in the semi-finals of the women’s 200 free by nearly a second, but she tends to be inconsistent in her 200 swims, and I don’t know if she can improve upon the 1:55.54 she swam already. Defending champion Federica Pellegrini qualified second in 1:56.42, while defending silver medalist Allison Schmitt finished at the back of a tight seven-woman pack in 1:57.07, after clocking 1:56.66 in prelims. Look for a big improvement by both swimmers tomorrow, while 400 free bronze medalist Camille Muffat has staked her claim as a contender as well.

Prediction:
1. Pellegrini
2. Heemskerk
3. Schmitt

China’s Sun Yang led the way in the men’s 800 free prelims, while Pal Joensen of the Faroe Islands held off Canada’s Ryan Cochrane for the second seed, with all three recording 7:45 splits. Both really pushed each other down the stretch, giving the indication that these two expended more energy than some of the other competitors. Ous Mellouli has the top credentials of all the finalists, as he is the World and Olympic champion in the 1500 and defending silver medalist in the 800. Americans Peter Vanderkaay and Chad La Tourette both made the final and will swim from lanes 7 and 8, respectively. They could chase Larsen Jensen’s American record of 7:45.63 set back in 2005.

Prediction:
1. Sun
2. Mellouli
3. Cochrane

South Africa’s Cameron van der Burgh and Brazil’s Felipe Silva set themselves up as the men to beat in the 50 breast final with sub-27 performances in the semi-final. The pair finished 1-2 at both the last Worlds in Rome and also the Short Course Worlds in Dubai; van der Burgh beat Silva in Rome, while the Brazilian turned the tables in December in Dubai. The race for the medals should be tight, and I could see Italy’s Fabio Scozolli or Norway’s Alexander Dale Oen move up into the top-two. However, I will stick with my original prediction.

Prediction:
1. van der Burgh
2. Silva
3. Scozolli

Should be another great day of action in Shanghai on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the results of the prediction contest are coming in quickly, and we have a new leader after three days of competition. Still a tight race though.

1. Matt Salzberg 129
2. David Rieder 126
3. Chris DeSantis 117
4. Kristine Sorenson 115
5. Melissa German 103
6. Braden Keith 101
7. John Lohn 93
8. Jerry Shandrew 83
9. Sebastian Schwenke 78
10. Tom Willdridge 77

Shanghai 2011: Day Three Finals Predictions

Five finals await the world on a packed Day 3 of competition in Shanghai. Having already discussed what transpired on the first two days of action, here is my take on what is to come on Tuesday and some updated predictions regarding the action. Without further ado, here goes.

The hardest race to predict of the five is the first, the men’s 200 free. France’s Yannick Agnel leads the way, followed closely by the German defending champion Paul Biedermann. Americans Ryan Lochte and Michael Phelps bracket 400 free champion Park Tae Hwan, and the medals will stay between those five swimmers. Olympic gold medalist Phelps really cruised through the middle 100 of his semi-final swim, but I just don’t know if he’s in good enough shape to get this title back. Biedermann has looked better than I expected here, and a German gold here would not surprise me like it would have a week ago. Park did not swim as fast as many predicted in the 400 free, but again, he has the speed to be ready to go here. But I will predict Lochte to win gold. He looked sharp in the semi-final, and although Biedermann did out-touch him, he had the win before putting the race on cruise control 10 meters from the wall.

Prediction:
1. Lochte
2. Park
3. Phelps

I originally predicted China’s Zhao Jing to win the women’s 100 back, ahead of Japan’s Aya Terakawa and the United States’ Natalie Coughlin. However, Zhao has not looked especially sharp through the first few rounds, and Terakawa barely qualified for the final in eighth, while Coughlin cruised to the top qualifying position. The race is tight through to the final and will be once again tomorrow, but she has a tendency to get her fingertips on the wall just in time, as she has done in the last two Olympic races. I pick Coughlin to win her third career World title in the 100 back tomorrow.

Prediction:
1. Coughlin
2. Zhao
3. Zueva

The women’s 1500 free comes next, perhaps the most open race of the night. Lotte Friis leads the way in 16:00.47, but the prelims were fast and tight. In reality, any of the eight finalists could win a gold medal tomorrow. Friis won the 800 free at the 2009 Worlds in Rome after finishing second in the 1500, Kate Ziegler of the U.S. holds the world record at 15:42.54, having obliterated Janet Evans’ 19 year old mark back in 2007. Ziegler, the 2005 and 2007 champion in this event, finished second to Friis in their heat on Monday morning in 16:02.53 for the third-ranked qualifying time overall. Australian Melissa Gorman defeated Ziegler to take the 1500 crown at Pan Pacs last summer, and Gorman is already a London Olympian, having qualified in the 10k Open Water last week. Perhaps the most surprising prelim swim came from Shao Yiwen, who clocked a Chinese record time of 16:01.72 to finish second.

Prediction:
1. Friis
2. Ziegler
3. Shao

France’s Jeremy Stravius led all qualifiers in the 100 back semi-finals, clocking 52.76 to break 53 for the first time in his career. However, his countryman Camille Lacourt is the favorite for gold, having swum 52.11, not far from Aaron Peirsol’s world record of 51.94, to win the European title last year. I don’t think Lacourt will quite get to Peirsol’s mark in the final, but he should win gold. Stravius will battle for the silver medal with Japan’s Ryosuke Irie, and I predict American David Plummer to get in on all the fun to grab a medal. The race for the top will be tight with Plummer’s teammate Nick Thoman and Britain’s Liam Tancock and Germany’s Helge Meeuw, both previous medalists in this event. I do not expect New Zealand’s Gareth Kean to be a factor.

Prediction:
1. Lacourt
2. Stravius
3. Plummer

I am not making a bold prediction in picking American Rebecca Soni to win the women’s 100 breast. She has led prelims and semi-finals by more than a second and a half each time. Her semi-final time of 1:04.91 and her prelim time of 1:05.54 are the two fastest times in the world this year, respectively. Already, Soni holds the top-six times swum in 2011! The big question is can she approach the world record? Jessica Hardy clocked that 1:04.45 back in 2009, but I don’t think Soni has quite enough to break the record in Shanghai. Maybe next year in London. Leisel Jones, the 2008 Olympic gold medalist, qualified second in 1:06.66; she will be much faster in the final, but I still don’t see her approaching Jones. Defending silver medalist and European champion Yuliya Efimova and Chinese swimmers Ji Liping and Sun Ye look like challengers for a bronze.

Prediction:
1. Soni
2. Jones
3. Ji

Looks like another great finals session tomorrow from China, and I can’t wait to see how it turns out. Two world records (men’s 100 back and women’s 100 breast) will be on watch, and I see swimmers approaching but not beating these times. Not to worry; world records will be set later on this week.

Finally, I will share the results of my prediction contest after two days of action. Looks like a good competitive battle going on, but I think we all remember who is the swim geek! You can view all the prediction entries here.

1. David Rieder 78
2. Matt Salzberg 77
3. Kristine Sorenson 68
4. Chris DeSantis 64
5. John Lohn 62
6. Braden Keith 60
7. Jerry Shandrew 54
8. Melissa German 53
9. Sebastian Schwenke 44
10. Tom Willdridge 43