Friday, May 20, 2011

Which Current Male High School Swimmer Has the Best Shot to Make the 2012 Olympic Team?

“Which current male high school swimmer has the best shot to make the 2012 Olympic team?” This question is The Swimmers’ Circle’s current featured poll as well as a question posed to me back in December. The poll offers the options of six of the best high school swimmers in the country right now, including Clay Youngquist, David Nolan, Kip Darmody, Nicholas Caldwell, Ryan Murphy, and Arthur Frayler. Youngquist made headlines as the Junior National champion in the 200 free, while Caldwell took the 400 free at that meet. Darmody won the B-final of the loaded 100 back at Senior Nationals, and fellow backstroker Murphy won the 200 at Juniors. Frayler is the only one on the list with senior international team experience, having swum the mile at Pan Pacs, and Nolan made headlines when he shattered three national high school records at the Pennsylvania state meet.

The most popular choice on the list is David Nolan. He swam times of 19-mid in the 50 free, 42-low in the 100 free, 45-mid in the 100 back, and 1:41-mid in the 200 IM, the latter of which would have won NCAAs. Nolan is a potential Trials finalist in up to six events, including the 100/200 free, 100/200 back, 100 fly, and 200 IM, but does he have what it takes to get over the incumbent depth on the start list? Ryan Lochte and Michael Phelps loom in the 200 IM, with Eric Shanteau and Tyler Clary nipping at their heels. Nolan may have a shot at the 200 IM if Phelps chooses to skip it, but chances of that are slim in the first place. In relay events, he has been talked about as a potential 100 free contender, but, again, a 48-mid effort will be necessary to make top-six, the U.S. has been growing more and more sprint depth, with the likes of Adrian, Lochte, Phelps, Lezak, Grevers, Weber-Gale, Berens, Robison, Brunelli, Savulich, and the list goes on.

I picked Clay Youngquist as the most likely 2012 Olympian of any current high schooler. Youngquist crushed other junior-level swimmers last summer in the 200 free, swimming 1:48.44 to win the Junior Pan Pacific title. That time matched Charlie Houchin’s yearly best to make Youngquist the equal-eighth-fastest American this year. That time stood less than a second behind Dave Walters’ 1:47.78, which he swam to make the World Championships team. Ironically, Youngquist will join Walters in Texas in September, as he chases a spot on the Olympic 4x200 free relay. The competition will be tough; aside from the central core of U.S. swimmers that will swim in Shanghai (Phelps, Lochte, Vanderkaay, Berens, Dwyer, and Walters), Youngquist will face tough competition for a spot from Matt McLean, Tom Shields, and Longhorn teammate Dax Hill. However, the last few spots in a relay event are always up for grabs, and for that reason Youngquist has the best shot of any current high schooler to end up in London.

The high schooler with the best shot to earn an individual berth is Arthur Frayler. At Nationals last summer, Frayler placed fourth in the 1500 free, and he made the Pan Pacs team based on that result. He has taken huge chunks of time off his mile in recent years; at the CeraVe Invitational last January, he swam in the high-15:30s, a lifetime best. The time was down just under 15:30 by April at the Ohio State Grand Prix. In his swim at Long Course Nationals, he clocked 15:07.37, which ended 2010 as the 15th best in the world. Already this year, Frayler’s in-season times have been on par with and in some cases faster than those which he swam last year. Chad LaTourette leads the way in terms of top milers in the country, after finishing last year ranked third in 14:54.48, and Peter Vanderkaay is also a veteran who poses a strong threat. Sean Ryan, Michael Klueh, Michael McBroom, Andrew Gemmell, and Ryan Feeley are among the top challengers to those top two, and it should be another great race come Olympic Trials. However, Frayler is by far the youngest in the mix, and two more years of training under Richard Shoulberg at Germantown Academy will put him in a great spot down the line in Omaha.

Because of relays, I think Clay Youngquist is the most likely current high school swimmer to make it to London next year. However, it is even more likely that no high schooler will make the cut in Omaha next July. For instance, this summer’s World Championship team will be composed of 100% post-grads, since Nathan Adrian, Scot Robison, Scott Spann, and Conor Dwyer all exhausted their NCAA eligibility this year. Additionally, only two collegians (Adrian and Spann) and no high schoolers swam the U.S. men’s team in Beijing, a huge decrease from the six teenagers that had highlighted the team at the Sydney Olympics in 2000. That year, Michael Phelps and Aaron Peirsol both left Sydney to return to high school, while Ian Crocker, Klete Keller, and Erik Vendt went straight to their freshman years at college. Thus, a swimmer as young as Frayler, Youngquist, or Nolan on the team would be surprising, and I don’t think it will happen. Still, it remains an interesting story to watch in the lead-up to Trials next summer.

Sunday, May 15, 2011

Charlotte UltraSwim: Day Four

The 2011 Charlotte UltraSwim has come to a close. In addition to some intriguing individual storylines, one pervading theme this entire weekend has been the race for $20,000 grand prize for top performer of the meet. In the end, buoyed by her amazing swims in the 100 and 200 breast, Rebecca Soni won with 2283 points, followed closely by Missy Franklin (2267) and Eric Shanteau (2232). All three have been on fire this weekend, establishing themselves as top contenders in the world rankings. Tonight, however, two new swimmers moved into the top-ten in the world rankings in their respective events: Michael Phelps in the men’s 200 back and Natalie Coughlin in the women’s 100 free.

Phelps put on a show tonight in the 200 back, winning in 1:57.20 to move up to fifth in the world. Among Americans, he stands behind only Tyler Clary (1:56.61), and he moves ahead of rival Ryan Lochte (1:57.63), who took second tonight in 1:58.82. The fact that Phelps could post such a fast 200 back raises the question of why he could not do the same in the 200 free. What could Phelps be doing so that the one event on which he is not focused is his best swim of the weekend?

The only possible explanation I can come up with is that he is putting so much training emphasis on free and fly that his racing performances actually suffer. In essence, he has tired them out from training, but the times will see huge jumps forward by the end of the season. Since he is not swimming backstroke at Worlds, he has not trained too much of it, and thus it feels almost “rested.” After a mixed yet disappointing weekend of results for Phelps, this could be a good sign going forward for the greatest Olympian of all time.

Both 100 free races produced faster-than-expected results. On the ladies’ side, five of the six who will represent the U.S. in the 400 free relay in Shanghai competed, and Jessica Hardy did not only because of a hyper-extended elbow she received yesterday in the 50 free. Still, all five broke 55 seconds, an outstanding achievement for this point in the season. Coughlin’s winning time of 54.19 marks a huge improvement over her winning time of 54.86 from last year. A similar end-of-season improvement would put her in the mix for an individual medal in this event at the World Championships. Additionally, all cut time from their season bests, leading one to believe that the U.S. women could challenge the Dutch favorites in the 400 free relay in July.

While none of the men posted world-threatening times, three members of the World Champs team broke 50 seconds. This note is especially significant when considering that none broke the barrier last year. Hometown favorite Ricky Berens won in 49.46, earning him his first-ever UltraSwim victory after previously finishing third (100 free, 2009) and second (200 free, 2011). In the 100 free especially, Berens has swum more than a second faster than at this point last year, providing tangible evidence of his success at his new training base at Trojan Swim Club. Moreover, Scot Robison (49.90) and Garrett Weber-Gale (49.97) laid down exceptionally solid mid-season marks. These two will provide important depth for the 400 free relay in Shanghai, where the American men are slight favorites. Berens only made the team for the 800 free relay, so he may or may not swim the shorter relay.

SwimMAC Carolina, the host of the UltraSwim, has recently served as a point of concurrence for some of the best post-grads in swimming. Eugene Godsoe moved to Charlotte after a superb performance at the 2010 NCAAs, and this weekend he put the swimming community on notice with a series of superb swims and lifetime bests, including placing runner-up in the 100 fly. Veteran Davis Tarwater, the third-place finisher in the 200 fly at the 2008 Olympic Trials, recently returned to full training in Charlotte after an off-year, and he impressed this weekend with third-place finishes in the 100 free and 200 fly. Now, SwimMAC hosts another Olympic hopeful named Eric Knight.

Almost six years ago, Knight arrived as a walk-on to the George Mason swim team having never trained but with loads of potential. In four years, he had become the Colonial Athletic Association swimmer of the year before retiring for the first time in March of 2010. However, by September, he arrived in Charlotte out of shape for a tryout to join SwimMAC’s Team Elite. Seeing potential, however, David Marsh gave Knight a chance. Knight would swim with the George Mason team for until May to get back in shape while he finished his master’s degree before moving to Charlotte. Indeed, Knight just graduated and moved to Charlotte this week, but his teammates and coach are already impressed.

At UltraSwim, Knight swam in multiple events, finishing as high as 18th in the 200 breast. And apparently, Marsh has already begun to adjust his stroke, believing such adjustments could lead Knight as far as an Olympic berth next year. His best chances lie in the relay events, especially the 200 free, where Marsh believes there is an opening for a new generation of mid-distance stars in America. According to Nick Thoman, yet another Charlotte-based pro swimmer, with a little bit of technique work, Knight will be able to tap into his already-impressive physique and become something great before Omaha next year. I’m not sure he can make it to the Olympics, but his journey will sure be one to watch.

And now my blog series on the Charlotte UltraSwim comes to a close. As usual, this meet has been fast, furious, and exciting. Some stars shined bright while others looked dim, but the best swimming is ahead as we look forward to this summer’s World Championships in Shanghai and beyond that U.S. Nationals at Stanford. Even further beyond but already looming are next year’s Olympic Trials and London Olympics. This summer of swimming will be great, as always, and I will be here, at TheSwimGeek.com, blogging all along the way.

Charlotte UltraSwim: Day Three

Another session of finals in Charlotte has brought yet more massive storylines. Michael Phelps once again embarassed himself with yet another crushing loss in the 200 fly, a race that until last month, he had not lost in nine years. However, if I have learned anything in my years covering the sport, Phelps cannot be judged right now. Phelps himself doesn’t seem exceptionally upset about the loss, meaning that he may just know what he’s doing after all. Often the best just know what it takes. Take for example Cullen Jones, who took several months of a break before getting into the shape needed to beat Josh Schneider in Thursday’s swim-off. He only had swum one meet since Nationals, but he did just what he needed to do to win. As Jones proved, the best know what it takes. For that reason, I reserve judgment on Phelps, and instead I will focus on some of the more exciting storylines of the night.

The most impressive swims came in the last event, the 200 breast. On the ladies’ side, Rebecca Soni (2:23.33) and Amanda Beard (2:26.24) established solid markers for this point in the season, while Eric Shanteau came in at 2:10.95 to win the men’s 200 breast. While he fell short of his 2009 suited meet record of 2:09.71 and even his winning time from last year (2:10.59), he showed once more that his move to the Trojan Swim Club in L.A. is paying off. Tonight, he commented on Twitter about having more speed and being able to take his races out quicker at a lesser expenditure of energy. This over-expenditure was duly noted in his lackluster swims last summer, where he ended up using too much energy to try – and fail – to get out quickly and not have his usual closing speed.

Additionally, this swim puts Shanteau where he needs to be internationally; Shanteau now ranks eighth in the world, but third among non-Japanese swimmers (only two of whom will swim at Worlds). Shanteau did not make the top lists of international swimmers in the 200 breast last year, but tonight’s swim serves as a warning: don’t count out Eric Shanteau. Additionally, look out for another fast swim from Shanteau in tomorrow’s 200 IM, where he faces star power in Ryan Lochte and Markus Rogan. Just as is the case with the 200 breast, Shanteau has international potential in his old signature event, the 200 IM.

Many had anticipated the showdown between Missy Franklin and Natalie Coughlin in the women’s 100 back. After Franklin’s huge time drop in yesterday’s 200 free, there had been talk of her dropping into the 59-low range. However, it was not to be, as the veteran got a win on the youngster tonight. Coughlin won in 1:00.02 to claim seventh in the world, followed closely by Franklin (1:00.22) and young stars Rachel Bootsma (1:00.33) and Elizabeth Pelton (1:00.40), all well under Pelton’s old meet record of 1:00.64. Coughlin and Franklin swam right next to each other in lanes 2 and 3, and one key difference was obvious in their races; Coughlin came up a bodylength ahead of Franklin off both walls. Still, Franklin made up enough ground to the point where if the race was 103 meters, the win would have easily been hers. The fact that her details such as starts and underwaters need so much work is simply exciting for her future potential in the 100 back.

On the men’s side, national champion David Plummer took down hometown favorite Nick Thoman in the men’s 100 back, 54.04 to 54.15.. Plummer moved into a tie with Greece’s Aristeidis Grigoriadis for ninth in the world, while Thoman is ranked seventh at 53.93 from the Indy Grand Prix. Thus, despite the retirement of Aaron Peirsol, the U.S. still has five of the top thirteen 100 backstrokers in the world, none having swum rested, including Lochte (54.08), Matt Grevers (54.08), and Phelps (54.14). Most interestingly, though, was how the race played out in the water. Plummer went out fast, in 25.80, before fading with a second 50 split of 28.24. Thoman, meanwhile sat back in third at 26.61 before turning on the jets with a 27.54 homecoming split. Clearly, the effects of hard training has forced adjustments in race strategy. Still, all the times are impressive as the two men look forward to the World Champs this summer.

As previously mentioned, Cullen Jones defeated Josh Schneider in a one-on-one swim-off Thursday to secure his spot on the World Champs team. The pair clocked times of 22.24 and 22.28, respectively. After the loss, Schneider claimed to be was “mopey” and failed to respond especially well to his first taste of adversity in swimming, after a constant string of successes. Tonight, however, he got back on track with a victory. Too close to call the whole way between Schneider, Jones, and their SwimMAC teammate Nick Brunelli, Schneider “toasted” Jones by one one-hundredth of a second for the win, 22.51 to 22.52, with Brunelli just behind at 22.56. Of course, both Jones and Schneider had shaved and rested some for their swim-off, so the time is perhaps best for the veteran Brunelli.

Afterwards, Schneider described the huge confidence boost he received from this victory. After the race, he had a huge smile on his face, and he seemed far more alive in the post-race interview than he did following his loss to Jones on Thursday. Even though Schneider will not be going to Worlds, he now feels even more the will and need to be the best, and the results of this weekend will lead to more successes for Josh Schneider down the line. He will be a big go-to man for the U.S. sprint team for a while, and his minor setback this weekend will only lead to bigger and better things at this summer’s World University Games or next year’s Olympic Trials or down the line.

Following the racing tonight, Markus Rogan lit up Twitter. He relayed information through UltraSwim2011, the meet directors, looking forward to his 200 IM tomorrow and complementing coach David Marsh on putting on such an awesome meet. From personal experience, I know that UltraSwim is indeed amazing and a great topic for swim geeking! Later, he claimed on his own account that “age makes me slower but let’s me keep going longer. I just can't peak in a minute anymore.” Essentially, Rogan believes that at his relatively old age, he needs to use a challenging race to put forth a great effort and cannot simply depend on natural talent anymore. Thus, he has been much more successful as of late in the 200 free and 200 IM than the 100 back, in which he finished sixth tonight in 55.87, a swim he described as “terrible.” Wise words of advice from a swimming legend.

Finally tonight, I conclude with an excerpt from The Screaming Viking’s latest edition of “Gutter Talk” over at The Swim Brief. He posted in response to Jones’ swim-off victory on Thursday


"I just lost a lot of money. Man, I suck at picking winners." David R.- Self-Proclaimed 'King of the Swim Geeks'


For the record, I did not actually bet money on the result, but I can see myself losing money on a failed prediction. Such is the nature of swim geeking!

Friday, May 13, 2011

Charlotte UltraSwim: Day Two

Tonight at the Charlotte UltraSwim, we saw some amazing swims, while others did not live up to expectations. Missy Franklin continued her now-year-long coming out party in defeating America’s World Championship representatives in the 200 free, while Rebecca Soni and Jessica Hardy lit up the water in the 100 breast. Their Trojan teammate Eric Shanteau clocked an impressive time to win the 100 breast after three of his teammates posted a 1-2-3 finish over Ryan Lochte in the 200 free. Finally, a few surprising performances showed who could really break onto the U.S. scene in the upcoming years.

Franklin won the 200 free in 1:57.66 tonight, breaking Dagny Knutson’s meet record of 1:57.83 set last year. More significantly, she took more than a second off her lifetime best! Her old top time had stood at 1:58.75 from the Indy Grand Prix in March, where she took second to Katie Hoff (1:57.97). Now, this young swimmer – the only one younger than me on the National Team – has made yet another statement of intent. Last summer, she failed to break 1:59 in the 200 free and finished tenth at Nationals, thus missing the 800 free relay. By this point, any relay this summer without Franklin will be surprising. That race will be close, but the Americans have a strong shot; American record-holder Allison Schmitt took second today in 1:58.11, nearly five seconds faster than the 2:02.94 she swam to finish 13th last year. Dana Vollmer took nearly two seconds off her season-best. Things are certainly looking up for this squad.

Things look even better for Franklin. Having swum best times in the 200 free as well as both backstrokes at the Indy Grand Prix, she could be on track to crush those backstroke times as well. Already, she is ranked fourth in the world in the 100 back at 59.56 and third in the 200 at 2:07.97. All of the times in front of her come from various worldwide national championships. She has the potential tomorrow to approach Aya Terakawa’s world leading time in the 100 (59.17) and perhaps even Belinda Hocking’s 2:06.88 in the 200. What has become clear, however, is that Missy Franklin is on the world scene, and she is here to stay.

Rebecca Soni did it again in tonight’s 100 breast. She clocked 1:05.57, the fastest time in the world this year. She has only been faster once without the aid of a techsuit – when she won Pan Pacs in 1:04.93. She just won’t stop, and I expect another outstanding performance in tomorrow’s 200 breast. Speaking of, that world record of 2:20.12 held by Annamay Pierse has been around longer than expected already.

However, Soni’s teammate Jessica Hardy provided the real treat; just as was the case at last week’s Maria Lenk Trophy in Rio, she stayed within a half second. Her time of 1:05.90 marks the first time she has broken into the 1:05 range. In fact, it is her first below 1:06 with the exception of her world record of 1:04.45. She hasn’t beaten Soni since Olympic Trials, but finally, she is back to the best in the 100 breast. Amanda Beard will swim at Worlds rather than Hardy, showing more of America’s breaststroke strength. Beard, meanwhile, clocked 1:08.46 tonight, a superb mid-season outing for her in her first race since Pan Pacs.

Eric Shanteau also won the 100 breast tonight, clocking 1:01.49, moving to just behind Mark Gangloff (1:01.43) as the second-fastest American this year. His new training base in L.A. has clearly been beneficial for former Texas-trained swimmer; he has found speed he has never seen without the aid of high-tech swimsuits. Look for an awesome 200 breast tomorrow; this year, only two non-Japanese swimmers have broken 2:11, and Shanteau could very well become number three.

Meanwhile, fellow Longhorn-turned-Trojan Ricky Berens looked more than solid with a second place effort of 1:49.25 in the 200 free. A few spots back, Florida-trained Conor Dwyer clocked a 1:49.56 for fifth place. This time is almost a second faster than he swam at this meet last year. Thus, with a best time of 1:47.35 from last summer, he could clock as low as the 1:45-range on a relay split this year. Dwyer had his NCAA hopes cut short by illness, but the time has come for him to make a mark internationally. The first step will be his spot on America’s 800 free relay this summer in Shanghai, where he has the potential to earn a finals bid. While veterans Michael Phelps and Ryan Lochte swam less than stellar races tonight, the performances of Berens and Dwyer highlight just how good America remains in the men’s 200 free.

Phelps, meanwhile, performed well down from expectations tonight. As quoted by Mike Gustafson, his coach Bob Bowman said tonight, “I can’t make [Phelps] do what he doesn’t want to do.” More to come on this extremely flat performance later in the weekend when we see where Phelps stands in the 200 fly and 200 back.

Finally, the most surprising swim of the night: Eugene Godsoe’s 50.39 100 free relay lead-off. Godsoe made splashes last year when he won the 100 back at NCAAs and took third in both the 200 back and 100 fly. He did not swim especially well at Nationals, only placing 11th in the 100 back, but he stepped up to the plate today at UltraSwim. First, he used a strong second length to take second in a tight 100 fly in 53.22, just behind Tyler McGill (53.15 – ironically the exact same time he swam at this meet last year) and ahead of Tim Phillips (53.26). In comparison, Godsoe’s previous best time before today was 53.96.

Later on in the session, he led off the winning 400 free relay for SwimMAC in 50.39, obliterating his former best time of 51.11. When watching, I thought one of his more celebrated teammates like Josh Schneider or Nick Brunelli took the lead-off leg; I did not expect nearly so much from someone so inexperienced. However, we know must look at Godsoe with an outside shot to get on the 400 free relay in 2012. Out of nowhere, he has come into his own with a real shot. In the short-term, however, look for a great race with teammate Nick Thoman, Olympic silver medalist Matt Grevers, National champion David Plummer, and 200 back Olympic champ Ryan Lochte in the 100 back tomorrow, a race that could once again shape up as the race of the meet.

Charlotte UltraSwim: Day One

Most thought that tonight would be Josh Schneider’s night. Almost all of the experts I talked to picked him. At The Swim Brief’s Facebook page, all three posted in separate comments that Schneider would win. All the polls around the internet had Schneider pegged to come out on top. Personally, I thought Schneider would win. I said on my Facebook page two hours before the race that he would post a time around 22.0 to win. After what I had seen from both so far this year, I did not believe either had enough time to come down to being fully tapered for this showdown. Nonetheless, the two teammates would square off on even terms.

What a showdown it was. Like I predicted, neither man bettered their shared 21.97 from Irvine last summer, but Jones blazed out on the start and first 25 and held off Schneider down the stretch. Schneider swam his 50 with no breath and made a push down the stretch, but even a great finish could not bring him over the top of his more veteran teammate. Jones won in 22.24, followed by Schneider in 22.28. Jones moved to 11th in the world, while Schneider is tied for 15th. As Jones indicated in an interview, both have further to come down in training in looking towards their big meet this summer. While Jones will go the Worlds in Shanghai, Schneider defaults onto the World University Games team, where he will compete in the 50 free and most likely 400 free relay.

One of the interesting storylines through the remainder of the meet will be how fast the two men, both shaved and on some rest, will swim. The normal 50 free event could be especially interesting, where Schneider could beat Jones, and both could swim faster. With the absence of Fred Bousquet and the Auburn sprint crew, the two should be the class of that field. In the 100 free, the two men will be in a hotly-contested race with Matt Grevers, Scot Robison, Garrett Weber-Gale, Bobby Savulich, Simon Burnett, and Ricky Berens, the last of whom swam under 50 three times last week at the Maria Lenk Trophy in Rio. Their rest will show in that field, and I could see one of them walking away on top.

Tonight, Chloe Sutton put on a show in the women’s 1,500 free. She clocked 16:16.11 to claim ninth in the world. She swam her last mile at this meet one year ago, where she took second to Emily Brunemann in 16:21.12. She also just missed her lifetime best of 16:12.56 set wearing a polyurethane suit at the World Championships in Rome, where she finished eighth. However, perhaps the most significant information from the swim came out on her Facebook page shortly after: “Swam a super easy 16:16.11 and won tonight. My heart rate was probably about 120 the whole way until I threw down a 1:00 coming home. So excited for the rest of the meet!”

This news hints to me that not only does her mile have the potential to be much faster, but her other distances do as well. If she swims to her potential and normal race strategy in the 400 and 800, she could approach her lifetime best times of 4:05.19 and 8:24.51, respectively. If she does that (and not simply swim to win as she often does at these meets), she could be in the running for the $20,000 grand prize to be awarded to the top performer at the end of the meet. She will need to maximize points in her weaker events, namely the 200 free. For example, if she can earn points as pole setter (top prelim qualifier), that would provide a significant bonus, all of which she will need. But this could be another lucrative weekend for the 400 free Pan Pacific champ.

One of the most hyped-up races of the meet is tomorrow’s 100 breast for women. Rebecca Soni is the World and Pan Pacific Champion, Olympic silver medalist, and owner of the fastest time in the world the last two years. She has not lost a race at the 100 or 200 breast long course since the World Championships in Rome. However, world record-holder Jessica Hardy has been making a strong push as of late in the 100 breast. Since officially being cleared to swim in the London Olympics (provided she qualifies) last month, she ripped up her competition at the Maria Lenk Trophy in Rio, posting the top time in the world in the 50 breast (30.17) and second-fastest in the 100 (1:06.13), finishing second to Soni in the later race. She also clocked the fifth-fastest time in the world in the 50 free (24.80) the eighth-fastest in the 100 free (54.28) for good measure, winning both.

Hardy has not beaten Soni in a long course 100 breast since Olympic Trials. Despite the fact that Hardy did not qualify to contest the 100 breast in Shanghai, many feel that this could change soon. Both clocked absolutely phenomenal times in Brazil, both faster than Olympic gold medalist Leisel Jones swam at her Nationals. This week, both could be faster, as Hardy looks to break into the 1:05 range for the first time ever in a textile suit. I will predict we see Hardy out first to the wall, but Soni will edge her at the finish. Both will hit 1:05s, with Soni taking down her meet record of 1:05.90 set last year, in what was arguably the most impressive performance of the meet. For more good measure, NCAA Champion (and Canadian World Championship qualifier) Jillian Tyler as well 1996 Olympic and 2003 World silver medalist Amanda Beard will both be among the competitors and challengers. Notably, Beard does occupy the second spot in the 100 breast for Shanghai.

Each race tomorrow brings a number of interesting storylines. Missy Franklin, now 16, will try to take down World bronze medalist Dana Vollmer in the women’s 200 free, while Vollmer has her sights set on improving upon her fourth-ranked 57.50 in the 100 fly from the Michigan Grand Prix. Olympic champ Michael Phelps faces a tough field in the men’s 200 free, including Ryan Lochte, Peter Vanderkaay, Markus Rogan, Conor Dwyer, Scot Robison, Dominik Meichtry, and hometown favorite Ricky Berens. Mark Gangloff and Eric Shanteau renew their rivalry in the men’s 100 breast, while Tim Phillips will face a hard-charging Tyler McGill at the finish of the men’s 100 fly. World Champion Katinka Hosszu and American Olympian Elizabeth Beisel highlight the field for the women’s 400 IM, while University of North Carolina star Tyler Harris tops the psych sheet in the 400 IM. Should be quite a day of racing.

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

Charlotte UltraSwim: Day Zero

Hours after the completion of the 10k Open Water race at Pan Pacs, I wrote that this blog would be less active for the ensuing months. The next day, I began an extremely intensive course load for my junior year in high school. That was nine months ago. Since then, we witnessed Ryan Lochte making magic happen at the World Short Course Championships in Dubai and the Cal Bears sweeping the NCAA Championships. Naoya Tomita stepped up to defeat Kosuke Kitajima in the 200 breast at Japanese Nationals to establish himself as arguably the best in the distance in the world, and Mark Dylla overcame his demons to finally win his deserved NCAA title in the 200 fly. Since then, I became a high school state champion (the slowest in the nation in the 500 free) and made changes in my life and grew up. But one thing hasn’t changed: my passion for swimming lives on; I am the swim geek, and I’m back.

What a better time to return to full-time blogging than the eve of this year’s Charlotte UltraSwim. Last year, I had the privilege of covering that meet from the pool deck and really experiencing the vibes of a professional swim meet. While I am not making the trip up to Charlotte this year, I will be posting blogs this weekend to give my perspective on what is going down in Charlotte. There are some massive storylines, from the continued Phelps vs. Lochte showdowns; Missy Franklin’s rising star clashing with Natalie Coughlin, Elizabeth Pelton, and Elizabeth Beisel; Jessica Hardy on fire once again; Rebecca Soni still superior; and the Charlotte homecomings of Ricky Berens and Scot Robison, among others. However, nothing beats the prospect of tomorrow’s one-on-one dual for a spot in Shanghai between SwimMAC teammates Cullen Jones and Josh Schneider.

Everyone knows the story. In case you don’t, I wrote a long article today describing everything that has led up to this final climax. Swimming. Legal disputes. Controversy. And more swim-offs. This story has it all, even some team drama. In an article published on the New York Times’ website today, Nick Brunelli, yet another SwimMAC elite sprinter, commented on the trash talk taking place between the two at practice. “…they weren’t joking. They meant it.” The article goes on to quote SwimMAC assistant (and former University of Georgia great) Peter Verhoef: “Unfortunately, it’s created a situation there where they each feel a certain dislike for the other person.”

Both men are confident that they can win. Each has come out and given their reasons. Schneider cites Jones’ poor practice attendance over the last year (some reports indicate he was completely out of the water from September thru December), while Jones believes he has the mental edge, partially acquired from defeating Garrett Weber-Gale in 2009 in the exact same situation. It will be one heck of a showdown and one with drastic impacts on U.S. National Team rosters. (If Schneider loses, he defaults onto the World University Games team, whereas a Schneider victory would give that spot to Josh Daniels.) Regardless of outcome, Verhoef and any fan of USA Swimming and SwimMAC would “…like them to come out of this with a hungry attitude, a feeling of let’s get back to work and push each other to be the top two in the world.”

Also tomorrow, swimmers take to the pool in the non-Olympic distance races. Each field is led by a finalist from the World Champs in Rome. Chloe Sutton, the eighth-place finisher in Rome in the women’s 1500, and eight-place finisher in the men’s 800, Peter Vanderkaay, will each swim this race as a warm-up for their signature events later in the meet. While neither is likely to have much rest, all indications point to fast swimming in Charlotte, as is always the case. Another important storyline to keep an eye on is the points system, especially since Vanderkaay walked away with the top prize of $20,000 in 2010. Unlike last year, in which swimmers earned points for the top-three places in finals, pole setter (top time after prelims), and meet records, this year’s system is based on the FINA points table, so big points are awarded for the fastest swims relative to the rest of the world in an event. A swimmer’s top two events count towards points, with bonus points awarded for any event win, pole-setting, and meet records. Should be quite a competition on that front as well.

Sunday, April 3, 2011

All Great Racers Part Four

Over the past two weeks, we have seen some remarkable swimming. At French nationals, the two Camilles (Lacourt and Muffat) shined, while Yannick Agnel and Fabien Gilot established themselves as legitimate individual medal hopes in freestyle events for Shanghai. Just like last year, the Cal men dominated the NCAA championships, and this time, they won the team title. Impressive performances from Nathan Adrian, Damir Dugonjic, and Tom Shields kept at bay a deep Texas team with a bright future. Meanwhile, Chinese Nationals have begun, where Yi Shiwen and Sun Yang are building upon impressive performances at last November’s Asian Games, and Brent Hayden did his job at Canadian Trials to earn a shot at reclaiming his 100 free world title. Finally, Australian Nationals have begun down under, and Alicia Coutts is proving that her performance at Commonwealth Games was no fluke. She has won the 100 fly and 200 IM in the top times in the world, both times defeating triple Olympic champ Stephanie Rice.

For me, two of the most impressive performances I’ve seen from all these meets have been those of perseverance. Both swimmers came so close, so many times in the past. Both missed chance after chance to get the job done and jump onto the next stage. Eventually, their opportunity passed; procedures changed, and other swimmers got faster, and I felt like both of these swimmers no longer had a chance to achieve the goal they had been seeking. But in the past week, in two upset performances, these swimmers pulled off the goal they had for so long been unable to achieve. One overcame three years of being on the bubble to put it together at the last possible moment. The other had continually missed his chance by hundredths but jumped into a new arena of competition with a national victory.

In 2008, Georgia freshman Mark Dylla led through the opening laps of the 200 fly, under American record-pace. At the SEC championships a month prior, Dylla had upset senior teammate Gil Stovall, the previous year’s NCAA runner-up. At the big show, however, Stovall ran down Dylla to break Mel Stewart’s 17 year-old NCAA record (1:41.78). Stovall posted a 1:41.33 as UGA ended up going 1-2 in the race. One year later, Dylla returned to the NCAA finals as a favorite. Having come close to Stovall’s NCAA record in winning SECs, many predicted a 200 fly win for Dylla as a sophomore. Dylla established a lead and took a clear advantage by the 175 mark, but Florida’s Shaune Fraser touched out Dylla at the end, 1:40.75 to 1:40.85. Both beat Stovall’s NCAA record from the year before.

After another year of disappointment, things would not get better his junior year. At the SEC Championships, Dylla took the victory in the 200 fly ahead of Fraser, but he had a battle on his hands headed into NCAAs. Fraser had looked better than Dylla early in the meet, and Cal freshman Tom Shields had put on a show in the 100 fly. However, Dylla ignored the odds and stormed away on the final 50 for a win over Fraser and Shields. Dylla’s excitement, however, was short-lived. The final results listed Fraser as the champion, with Shields second. Dylla had been disqualified for a controversial one-hand touch. He later admitted that the disappointment of that DQ had taken him serious time to overcome, but he showed comeback strength at the end of the summer at U.S. Nationals, finishing second to Michael Phelps.

Going into this year’s NCAA finals, most of the swimming community wanted to see a Dylla victory to round out his NCAA career. He won his fourth-straight SEC victory in the 200 fly with his fastest time of those four victories. However, Dylla’s chances for a title dropped drastically with results of the Pac-10 Championships. Shields clocked 1:40.31 to set a new NCAA record and move to second on the all-time list. Early in the meet, Shields won the 100 back and took second in the 100 fly and swam on two winning relays; Dylla, meanwhile, finished well down in the B-finals in the 200 IM and 100 fly. On the meet’s final day, however, a truly special performance came out. Shields led through the opening stages of the 200 fly, holding a four tenths lead at the 150 split. However, Dylla unleashed a 26.45 final 50 to out-split Shields by more than a second. In his own words, “Game. Over.”

While Dylla was charging past Shields, Stanford’s Bobby Bollier made a charge of his own. Bollier split 26.29 on the final 50, faster even than Dylla. But at that point, Dylla would not lose in his final collegiate race. He held off Bollier, 1:40.60 to 1:40.76, setting a new NCAA record. By that point, most “experts” had written off Dylla. I could not pick against someone who had already broken an NCAA record during the season. I was wrong. In that emotionally-charged performance, Dylla finally got it done.



Ben Treffers made his first mark in swimming in 2009. At the Australian Long Course Championships that year, the then-17 year-old Treffers top all qualifiers in the semi-final of the 50 back, including Olympians Ashley Delaney and Hayden Stoeckel, clocking 25.10. In the finale, Delaney won in 24.81, a new Australian record, while Treffers took second in 25.15. However, Treffers did not make the Australian World Champs team since his final time missed the “A” qualifying mark of 25.14. In the 100 back at that meet, Treffers failed to break 57 and took eighth place.

At the same meet a year later, Treffers almost missed out on qualifying yet again. In the 50 back, Stoeckel won in 25.06, Daniel Arnamnart took second in 25.08, and Treffers ended up third in 25.09, with Delaney a close fourth. At that meet, the top two in each event qualified to represent Australia at Commonwealth Games, while most third-place swimmers qualified for Pan Pacs, where they could earn the third berth for Commonwealth Games. Thus, Treffers had once again missed automatic selection by 0.01. In the 100 back, Treffers showed marked improvement to finish third in 55.00. However, things did not go his way at Pan Pacs. In the 50 back, he and Delaney had to battle it out for the final spot in Delhi, and Delaney won the silver medal in 24.98, knocking Treffers out of the 50 back. Delaney, Stoeckel, and Arnamnart all beat Treffers in the 100 back, eliminating him from Commonwealth contention.

Treffers did get some consolation with a place on Australia’s World Short Course Championships team. He won the 50 back at their Short Course Nationals and made the final of that event in Dubai. He also swam on Australia’s medley relay at that meet. However, going into this year’s Trials in Sydney, new head coach Leigh Nugent announced that 50 stroke events would no longer be used for qualifying. Essentially, any swimmer who wanted to swim the 50 back at Worlds would have to first qualify in the 100 back. With the powerhouse duo of Stoeckel and Delaney representing Australia, I felt that Treffers had little to no shot to earn a berth for the Worlds in Shanghai. I felt that he had missed his opportunity.

Treffers made his first statement in the heats of the 100 back yesterday. He clocked 54.87 for the top qualifying time, already dropping time from last year’s best of 55.00. In the semi-final, he dropped almost under 54, clocking 54.18. Going into the final, Treffers still had the top qualifying mark, ahead of Delaney (54.32) and Stoeckel (54.56). A huge showdown was brewing. In the finale, Delaney and Stoeckel both went out slowly, and Treffers took advantage, clocking a swift split of 26.22. As it would turn out, no one could catch him.

Treffers touched the wall in 53.72, holding off Stoeckel (53.87) and Delaney (54.17). The time places Treffers fourth in the world for 2011. Treffers now has secured a spot for Shanghai and is a realistic contender to make a final. At his current rate of improvement, he will be a medal threat not too far down the line. He is still only 19 years old! Even more exciting is his potential for the 50 back later this week. While his biggest drops have been in the longer races, I expect to see something impressive in the 50 as well. Even though he has already qualified for Worlds in that by virtue of his 100 win, posting a good time is still incentive. He could be close to Delaney’s Australian record of 24.81. By Shanghai, he could be in the medal conversation. The perseverance of Ben Treffers has certainly paid off; a speedy 50 backstroker two years ago has become a powerful 100 backstroker with unlimited potential.

Friday, April 1, 2011

From Sevilla to London: Open Water

As I write this blog, I am concluding my visit to Spain. I have spent more than a week here and in that time visited many of the most well-known cities, including Sevilla. Sevilla hosted the World Open Water Championships in June, 2008, which served as the main qualifier for the Olympics. The top ten finishers in that 10k race three years ago qualified for the inaugural Olympic open water swim, as well as five “continental champions.” Russia swept the 10k golds in Sevilla; Larisa Ilchenko won the women’s race on her way to Olympic gold, while Vladimir Dyatchin ran down British pool Olympian David Davies for the men’s title. In that men’s race, open water stalwart Thomas Lurz grabbed third, while the race also featured Australian pool star Grant Hackett. Two-time defending 1500 free Olympian champion Hackett received a disqualification.












Among those qualifying on the Río Guadalquivir included American Mark Warkentin, who became America’s first ever Olympian in open water and the first person to qualify for the U.S. swim team for Beijing. Additionally, Warkentin won silver in the 25k in Sevilla, while Chloe Sutton matched his feat in the women’s 5k race. (Sutton did not participate in the 10k race in Sevilla but would later qualify for Beijing at a test event in June, 2008.)

Warkentin went on to finish eighth in Beijing before taking a hiatus from the sport. In September, Warkentin returned to win the Manhattan Island Marathon Swim (MIMS), defeating Bulgarian Petar Stoychev in a dominating performance, and he has begun his charge at a second Olympics. Qualifying for the London Games will take place at this summer’s World Championships in Shanghai. The top two finishers at June’s Open Water Nationals in Fort Myers will earn berths for Shanghai, where they can become Olympians. Warkentin will be one of the favorites, along with two Fullerton-trained athletes: Chip Peterson and Andrew Gemmell.

Like Warkentin, Peterson has been a pioneer for the United States in open water. At the 2005 World Champs in Montreal, Peterson won gold in the 10k. Peterson took second behind Warkentin at U.S. Trials for the Sevilla World Champs, but he finished outside of the top-ten in that race. Afterwards, he took a short hiatus from open water, focusing instead on performing for the University of North Carolina in NCAA competition. In 2010, he left UNC and moved to FAST to train with Jon Urbanchek. This paid off with a second-place finish in the 10k at U.S. Nationals in Long Beach behind the late Fran Crippen. Later that summer, Peterson participated in the World Championships in Roberval, Canada, and the Pan Pacs, also held in Long Beach. In a tight finish, Peterson out-touched Crippen for the win at Pan Pacs. He will seek a second chance for Olympic glory this summer.

Gemmell is yet another pioneer for American open water swimming. After several years locked out of the 10k race internationally, Gemmell broke out at the 2009 World Championships in Rome. He and Crippen challenged favorite Thomas Lurz and ended up finishing 2-3. Gemmell began swimming for the University of Georgia and performed well in NCAA competition. He has finaled in both the 1500 free and 400 IM at Long Course Nationals, and he placed in the top-eight at Pan Pacs in the 1500. At June’s open water National race, Gemmell finished fourth, continuing to show that he will be a major force for the Olympics. He decided to redshirt the 2010-2011 season from Georgia, moving to FAST to train with Urbanchek. Already, Gemmell’s chances look promising; he recently recorded a 15:01 1500 pull with paddles and buoy, much faster than his best time of 15:07 from Pan Pacs. In fact, 15:01.65 is the top swimming time in the world! While many open water swimmers, including Warkentin, have been faster pulling than swimming, that in-practice performance from Gemmell continues his establishment as a world threat in open water.

On the women’s side, Sutton has decided to pass up open water in Shanghai and London to focus on pool events, but her Mission Viejo teammate Christine Jennings won the gold at Pan Pacs and finished in the top-ten in Roberval. 17 year-old Eva Fabian also has extensive international experience, winning the 5k in Roberval. Fabian was in medal contention for the 10k before she received a disqualification for missing a turn buoy near the race’s end. Additionally, Emily Brunemann trains in Fullerton with Urbanchek, and she has international experience, having finished in the top-ten at the 2009 Worlds. With the recent retirement of defending champion Ilchenko, whatever two Americans qualify have a strong shot to make a mark internationally, even against powerful swimmers from Australia, Italy, and Brazil

Like with the women, the men’s 10k race is wide open. 2008 Olympic champ Maarten Van Der Weijen retired after winning gold in Beijing. Stars such as Lurz, Dyatchin, Davies, Valerio Cleri, and Eugeny Drattsev loom, but whatever two Americans qualify for Shanghai have serious potential to make a mark both there and in London. No Americans medaled in the 10k at 2010 Worlds, but Peterson finished in the top-ten, and both Gemmell and Warkentin have shown their abilities in other venues. Additionally, American Alex Meyer out-touched defending champ Cleri for the 25k world title, establishing him as yet another strong American contender. In Sevilla, only one American man made the grade for the Olympics; now, many more are in the mix, and two will be favored to advance to London.

I dedicate this blog to the late Fran Crippen, who died in an Open Water race in the United Arab Emirates on October 23, 2010.








Sunday, March 20, 2011

Men's NCAA Championships Predictions

Yesterday, the Cal women's team won the NCAA Championship in Austin. Not only did I predict that, but I successfully predicted the top three teams in the correct order. Of the thirteen individual events I predicted on this blog, I got nine of them right. (Note: this does not mean what I put on Podium Pursuit...) After a fairly successful hit-out last week, I am pretty confident about my men's predictions. Here goes:

Thursday, March 24:
200 Free Relay
1. Cal
2. Auburn
3. Texas

500 Free
1. Conor Dwyer, Florida
2. Matt McLean, Virginia
3. Jackson Wilcox, Texas
Darkhorse – Hassaan Abdel-Khalik, Michigan

200 IM
1. Austin Staab, Stanford
2. Austin Surhoff, Texas
3. Kyle Whitaker, Michigan
Darkhorse – Nimrod Shapira Bar-Or, Arizona

50 Free
1. Nathan Adrian, Cal
2. Jimmy Feigen, Texas
3. Vlad Morozov, USC
Darkhorse – Josh Daniels, Cal

400 Medley Relay
1. Cal
2. Florida
3. Texas

Friday, March 25:
200 Medley Relay
1. Cal
2. Texas
3. Florida

400 IM
1. Conor Dwyer, Florida
2. Bill Cregar, Georgia
3. Kyle Whitaker, Michigan
Darkhorse – Austin Surhoff, Texas

100 Fly
1. Tom Shields, Cal
2. Austin Staab, Stanford
3. Graeme Moore, Cal
Darkhorse – Mathias Gydesen, Cal

200 Free
1. Nimrod Shapira Bar-Or, Arizona
2. Scot Robison, Virginia
3. Dax Hill, Texas
Darkhorse – Scott Jostes, Texas

100 Breast
1. Damir Dugonjic, Cal
2. Scott Spann, Texas
3. Nolan Koon, Cal
Darkhorse – Adam Klein, Auburn

100 Back
1. Cory Chitwood, Arizona
2. Tom Shields, Cal
3. Eric Ress, Indiana
Darkhorse – Vlad Morozov, USC

800 Free Relay
1. Florida
2. Texas
3. Virginia

Saturday, March 26:
1,650 Free
1. Chad LaTourette, Stanford
2. Martin Grodski, Georgia
3. Michael McBroom, Texas
Darkhorse – Richard Charlesworth, USC

200 Back
1. Cory Chitwood, Arizona
2. Marco Loughran, Florida
3. Austin Surhoff, Texas
Darkhorse – Hayes Johnson, Texas

100 Free
1. Nathan Adrian, Cal
2. Vlad Morozov, USC
3. Jimmy Feigen, Texas
Darkhorse – Conor Dwyer, Florida

200 Breast
1. Scott Spann, Texas
2. Nick D’Innocenzo, Texas
3. Adam Klein, Auburn
Darkhorse – Martii Aljand, Cal

200 Fly
1. Tom Shields, Cal
2. Mark Dylla, Georgia
3. Dan Madwed, Michigan
Darkhorse – Neil Caskey, Texas

400 Free Relay
1. Cal
2. Stanford
3. Texas

Top Ten:
1. Cal
2. Texas
3. Stanford
4. Arizona
5. Florida
6. Auburn
7. USC
8. Michigan
9. Virginia
10. Georgia

Saturday, March 19, 2011

All Great Racers Part Three

This is the third weekend of March and the third straight weekend of stellar fast swimming. From the drama of an NCAA team title race in Austin to the next wave of America’s superstars in Orlando to the fastest high school meet in the country in Pennsylvania, featuring arguably the greatest high school swimmer in history. Without further ado, take your mark!

The biggest story of the weekend is the three-way battle for the team title at the Women’s NCAA Championships in Austin. After day one, Georgia, Stanford, USC, and Cal were within all within 15 points. Stanford started to fall back on the second day, as Cal used a string of superb performances to vault ahead. After prelims today, Cal has established itself as the clear favorite to win another National title, just like the Bears did back in 2009. Just like in 2009, Georgia should finish in second, and the up-and-coming Trojans should get third. Of course, day three last year was when the Arizona vaulted themselves in front of the favored Stanford for several events, only for Florida to catch them in diving and hold off Stanford and Cal for the win. A lot could change tonight.

Two performances for Cal yesterday really changed the face of the meet in their favor. First, senior Amanda Sims reclaimed her 100 fly title that she had previously won in 2009. She steamrolled right past the 51.43 that Elaine Breeden won in last year, the 51.28 she clocked to win in 2009, and any time on the all-time list recorded by Olympians Christine Magnuson and Dana Vollmer. Sims’ 50.49 makes her the fourth-fastest in history, behind only Natalie Coughlin and Rachel Komisarz. This morning, she clocked a top time in the 200 fly of 1:53.17, ahead of the USC tandem of Katinka Hosszu and Lyndsay De Paul. Sims dropped 1.5 seconds from prelims to finals in her 100 fly yesterday; if she can drop a similar margin, she will be in the mix for the win or at least a top-three finish.

Can Sims make a mark nationally and internationally? Last year at this meet, she clocked 51.85 in the 100 fly for third place. At Long Course Nationals, she took tenth in 59.31. A long course drop similar to that which she posted short course would take her into the 57-range, into which among Americans only Magnuson and Vollmer touched in 2010. Additionally, Teri McKeever has been known for getting her swimmers to step up at every corner. She has coached Natalie Coughlin and Dana Vollmer to superstardom, and she helped Caitlin Leverenz and Madison Kennedy earn surprising berths on the 2010 Pan Pac team. McKeever is also head Olympic coach for 2012 and should tonight wrap up her second NCAA team title. Sims will have completed her eligibility after this season, and all the pieces are in place for a 2012 Olympic run.

One of the biggest stories of the meet has been the rise of Texas A&M freshman Breeja Larson as a national contender in breaststroke. Three weeks ago, Larson finished runner-up to Texas’ Laura Sogar in both breaststroke distances at Big-12s in Austin. Her return trip to Austin, however, has been significantly more fruitful. Larson first turned heads on the 400 medley relay, where she split 57.88 to help A&M to the B-final win. The next night in the 100 breast, she nearly ran down favorite Jillian Tyler in the final. Tyler won in 58.39, followed closely by Larson, in 58.51. This time is a considerable drop from her entry of 59.27, recorded at Big-12s. The scariest part: Larson began swimming year-round just over a year ago, during her senior year of high school!

Larson’s achievements last night led The Swimmers Circle’s Braden Keith to comment afterwards, “We’ve just seen the metaphorical birth of the next great American breaststroker.” In today’s 200 breast prelims, Larson qualified third in 2:08.03, dropping three tenths from her Big-12 time. Expect her to give favorites Tyler and Caitlin Leverenz a real run in tonight’s final. By next year, with another crucial year of swimming under her belt, we could see something stellar on the NCAA level and maybe even on the international scene. Certainly, with the breakthrough we have already seen from Larson, the sky is the limit for her.

In Austin last night, Cal freshman Cindy Tran and Deborah Roth went 1-2 in the 100 back. However, someone even younger ripped off a faster time at the NCSA Junior Nationals in Orlando. Rachel Bootsma, a junior in high school, clocked 50.76, well ahead of Tran’s 51.30. The time moved Bootsma to third on the all-time list, behind only double Olympic champion Natalie Coughlin and world champion Gemma Spofforth. Bootsma is not just a speedy backstroker, having outstanding versatility and a powerful underwater dolphin kick which has already led Bootsma to a sweep of the butterfly races. She is slated to compete tonight in the 200 IM, 50 free, and 50 back. In the 50 back, she led all qualifiers by more than a second! Already a Pan Pacs team member this summer and bronze medalist in the 50 back, Bootsma has some serious upside potential, and it would not be surprising for her to enter college as the American record-holder in the 100 back. Expect big things from her down the line.

In my blog last week, I discussed the potential for David Nolan to break National High School records at the Pennsylvania High School State Championships this weekend. With one out of two finals sessions at Bucknell University out of the way, he has not disappointed. His 200 IM time of 1:41.39 obliterated his old national mark of 1:43.43 set last year. More importantly, that time is well ahead of Austin Staab’s 1:42.01 that sits as the top seed headed into NCAA Championships. Additionally, Nolan swam 19.62 in the 50 free to lead-off the 200 free relay, not far off Vlad Morozov’s national record of 19.43 set last year. Oh, and his team from Hershey lowered the national record for that relay by more than a second!

Tonight, Nolan will compete in the 100 back final and most likely swim the lead-off leg of Hershey’s 400 free relay. This morning, he posted a 47.37 100 back, and he will be shooting for Cole Craigin’s national record of 46.75 in finals. He will also chase Morozov’s 42.91 national 100 free record and is expected to bust through both. Some now consider him the greatest high school swimmer of all time! The incoming Stanford freshman has mighty expectations to live up to; in NCAA competition, he could win multiple national titles as a freshman and make major contributions to Stanford’s relays. He has been discussed as a potential 2012 Olympian, as a relay alternate or maybe even an individual event. Even a medal in London is a possibility. But as we’ve seen this week, Nolan is not one to shy away from expectations; he just shatters them.

Sunday, March 13, 2011

All Great Racers Part Two

Last week, I blogged about the fast swimming we saw from Michael Phelps at the Indy Grand Prix and the short course yards benchmarks achieved at men’s Pac-10s. However, I left out one of the biggest storylines of the weekend: the 15 year old superstar that has established herself as one of the most consistent swimmers in the States. Additionally, I will provide insight into one of the most anticipated high school meets in the country, highlighted by one superstar swimmer who will be making an impact sooner than most people realize.

Last week in Indianapolis, Missy Franklin swept the backstrokes, posting the top time of the year in the 100 (59.56) and second-fastest time of the year in the 200 (2:07.96). She also posted tenth-ranked times in the 100 and 200 free; she took third in the 100 (54.93) behind Dana Vollmer and Jessica Hardy and second in the 200 (1:58.75) to Katie Hoff. All of these times are personal bests, faster than she posted at Nationals or Pan Pacs this summer! To provide some perspective on how fast she has been, let’s look at her results from last year’s Charlotte UltraSwim – two months further into the season! She won the 200 back (2:11.78), tied for third in the 100 back (1:01.83), took sixth in the 200 free (2:00.45), and finished eighth in the 100 free (56.89). Already, she is two seconds faster in most of her races and four seconds faster in the 200 back!

If Franklin can drop another four seconds in the 200 back by Worlds, she would be more than a second underneath the world record! Obviously, I do not see her dropping that amount of time, but she could definitely be within range of the American record, which is 2:06.09. Quite possibly, that could win the race. She will not be swimming the 100 back, but she is already the fourth-fastest American of all time behind Natalie Coughlin, Hayley McGregory, and Margaret Hoelzer, and only Coughlin has bested that time in a textile suit. Unfortunately, she will not compete in the 100 distance this summer, having finished just behind Elizabeth Pelton at Pan Pacs, 1:00.14 to 1:00.15. Franklin is scheduled to compete in the prelims of the 4x100 free relay, and a 54.93 this early in the season means that she could challenge for a finals spot. She did not make the team in the 4x200 free relay, but she could be a huge asset to that team as well.

While Franklin continues her rapid ascension, other American backstrokers are not sitting on the laurels. Last weekend, Pelton broke the American record in the 200 short course yard backstroke. Her 1:49.16 beat Coughlin’s nine year old mark of 1:49.62 set at the 2002 NCAAs. Beating Coughlin, arguably the greatest short course swimmer of all time, is monumental for Pelton, as she tries to hold off Franklin’s charge. At next year’s Olympic Trials in Omaha, the backstrokes will be among the most competitive races. Franklin, Pelton, Coughlin, and others such as Rachel Bootsma will battle for berths in the 100 back, while Franklin and Pelton will face off with Pan Pac Champion Elizabeth Beisel in the 200 back. All four superstars are on the Worlds team, Coughlin and Pelton in the 100 back and Beisel and Franklin in the 200 back. However, the Olympic team may not have so many different slots available for backstroke, and we will see some serious dogfights in those events.

The Pennsylvania High School State Championships are this week, and the meet shapes up to be another record-breaking one for Hershey’s David Nolan. As a junior last year, Nolan set a National High School record of 1:43.43 in the 200 IM, which would have tied him for fourth at the NCAA Championships. This year, he will try to lay down a benchmark headed into that meet. Stanford’s Austin Staab enters as the top seed at 1:42.01; if Nolan beats that mark, he will establish a high school record that should be untouchable for years. Nolan, who will also swim for Stanford next year, has already established himself as one of the best young swimmers in the USA, and his coming is welcome considering that the U.S. men’s team is the oldest it has ever been and consists of very few collegians and no high schoolers.

For the State meet, Nolan is seeded at 1:47.20 in the 200 IM, from his district meet, where he was unrested and unshaved yet still seeded three seconds ahead of anyone else. He also is entered in the 100 back, where he is top seed at 48.40. He should be a key role on two relays as well; at districts, he split a 19.24 on the 200 free relay. Additionally, last year he led off Hershey's 200 medley relay with a 21.82 backstroke split! Undoubtedly Nolan is one of the most talented pre-collegiate swimmers we have seen in many years, possibly since one named Michael Phelps. Along with the aforementioned Missy Franklin, the future looks bright for Team USA.

Saturday, March 12, 2011

Women's NCAAs

It's that time of year again. NCAA Championship season. The women's meet runs March 17-19 in Austin, while the men take to the pool March 24-26 in Minneapolis. We are going to see two weeks of fierce competition and amazing races, but in each meet, one team will emerge the better. Of course, we won't know which one until possibly the last relay. Last year, everyone thought Stanford or Georgia would walk away with the title until Florida swept ahead and won a 2.5 point victory, with Cal and Arizona both right in the mix for the title as well. Expect this women's meet to be just as tight, and do not expect any of your predictions going in to be correct.

It's also time for one of my favorite activities in swimming: Fantasy Swimming. On Podium Pursuit, I dominated the World Cup competition, but finished second by eight points at Short Course Worlds after I forgot to predict the last day. I hope to reclaim the top spot with this meet. I base my predictions off season-best times and prior experience. I admit there might be some pro-USA bias, as there so often is in my picks. I pick the top three spots in each event, plus a "darkhorse." A darkhorse is a swimmer seeded outside the top-eight but one that could make an impact. Sometimes, there are perfect darkhorses like Felicia Lee (100 fly) or Micah Lawrence (100/200 breast), but sometimes the darkhorses are less obvious. Note that, for the purposes of Podium Pursuit, these predictions are subject to change on a day-by-day basis. Without further ado, here goes:

Thursday, March 17:
200 Medley Relay
1. Stanford
2. Cal
3. Auburn

500 Free
1. Allison Schmitt, Georgia
2. Wendy Trott, Georgia
3. Elizabeth Beisel, Florida
Darkhorse – Chelsea Nauta, Georgia

200 IM
1. Katinka Hosszu, USC
2. Caitlin Leverenz, Cal
3. Morgan Scroggy, Georgia
Darkhorse – Claire Crippen, Virginia

50 Free
1. Arianna Vanderpool-Wallace, Auburn
2. Liv Jensen, Cal
3. Margo Geer, Arizona
Darkhorse – Sam Woodward, Stanford

400 Medley Relay
1. Cal
2. USC
3. Wisconsin



Friday, March 18":
200 Medley Relay
1. Cal
2. USC
3. Auburn

400 IM
1. Katinka Hosszu, USC
2. Elizabeth Beisel, Florida
3. Caitlin Leverenz, Cal
Darkhorse – Teresa Crippen, Florida

100 Fly
1. Lyndsay De Paul, USC
2. Amanda Sims, Cal
3. Jenny Connelly, Tennessee
Darkhorse – Felicia Lee, Stanford

200 Free
1. Allison Schmitt, Georgia
2. Morgan Scroggy, Georgia
3. Lauren Perdue, Virginia
Darkhorse – Sara Isokovic, Cal

100 Breast
1. Jillian Tyler, Minnesota
2. Kasey Carlson, USC
3. Ellyn Baumgardner, Arizona
Darkhorse – Micah Lawrence, Auburn

100 Back
1. Presley Bard, USC
2. Cindy Tran, Cal
3. Maggie Meyer, Wisconsin
Darkhorse – Elizabeth Webb, Stanford

800 Free Relay
1. Georgia
2. Florida
3. Cal



Saturday, March 19
1,650 Free
1. Wendy Trott, Georgia
2. Haley Anderson, USC
3. Ashley Steenvoorden, Minnesota
Darkhorse – Shannon Vreeland, Georgia

200 Back
1. Elizabeth Beisel, Florida
2. Teresa Crippen, Florida
3. Maggie Meyer, Wisconsin
Darkhorse – Sarah Denninghoff, Arizona

100 Free
1. Arianna Vanderpool-Wallace, Auburn
2. Liv Jensen, Cal
3. Morgan Scroggy, Georgia
Darkhorse – Allison Schmitt, Georgia

200 Breast
1. Caitlin Leverenz, Cal
2. Laura Sogar, Texas
3. Jillian Tyler, Minnesota
Darkhorse – Micah Lawrence, Auburn

200 Fly
1. Katinka Hosszu, USC
2. Lyndsay De Paul, USC
3. Teresa Crippen, Florida
Darkhorse – Rachel Naurath, Virginia

400 Free Relay
1. Cal
2. Stanford
3. Georgia



My top ten:
1. Cal
2. Georgia
3. USC
4. Florida
5. Stanford
6. Auburn
7. Texas
8. Arizona
9. Wisconsin
10. Tennessee

Saturday, March 5, 2011

All Great Racers

I’m back! It’s been about six weeks since I have posted one of my usual blogs about pro swimming due to a number of other distractions in my life. Aside from two and a half hours a day of swim practice, I have been writing recaps about high school swimming at Swimming World and this weekend also the American Short Course championships. I have attempted to keep up with the many conference meets going on around the country, having up to three live webcasts playing at once to watch them all and make sense of them, with the NCAA Championships looming. I am currently participating in an Olympics round table with Tom Willdridge and Braden Keith, where we examine Olympic potentials, now that the schedule has been released. Not to mention that I am currently taking the hardest school course load of my life. But too much has changed in the world of swimming since I last posted, so I’m back once again.

Tonight, the latest stop on the Grand Prix circuit came to a close in Indianapolis, while the men’s Pac-10 Championships concluded in Long Beach. There is a saying that “All Great Racers Come to Indy;” while that quote was not entirely true this weekend, America has seen some truly great racers perform this weekend and also in past weekends at conference championships.

When I last blogged, I criticized Michael Phelps for his mediocre performance at the Austin Grand Prix. Now, however, things have changed. Just seven weeks later, Phelps suddenly bounced back, and nothing could be better for the sport. He started things off with a 1:46.27 victory in the 200 free. Phelps immediately proved that no one can count him out of the big showdown in that race this summer. To put that time into perspective, he swam 1:46.47 at the 2007 Missouri Grand Prix; a month and a half later, he went into the history books, posting a 1:43.86 in this event, breaking Ian Thorpe’s vaunted world record of 1:44.06. By this math, he could be on track to swim a 1:43-mid or better in the 200 by the Worlds in Shanghai. He took the 100 fly in 51.75, which he called disappointing because of a terrible finish. In his first mid-season sub-52 100 fly in two years, Phelps showed once again why he has become the dominant 100 flyer in the world. He won the 200 fly in 1:55.34, a respectable time, but it shows that he still has work to do. He did not have his usual cushion of several seconds in that race, where Brazil’s Kaio Almeida finished just a half second behind. But finally, Michael Phelps is on the right track, the track towards more Olympic greatness in London.

In possibly the final session of competing at the IUPUI Natatorium for his entire career, Phelps put on quite a show. His 1:56.88 victory in the 200 IM lopped about five seconds off his year-best from the Austin Grand Prix. He out-split world champ Ryan Lochte on every stroke and swam the fastest in-season time of his entire career. Lochte posted a demoralizing win over Phelps at this summer’s Nationals, but Phelps posted his first head-to-head win over Lochte in the event since the Olympic games. Up next, the 100 free. After winning his eight gold medals in Beijing, Phelps hinted that the 100 free could become his new focus event. After an unsuccessful experiment with a new sprint stroke in 2009, hype regarding Phelps and the 100 free decreased. However, things changed when Phelps led off the 400 free relay at Pan Pacs in 48.13, the then-fastest time in the world. Once again, Phelps has the fastest time in the world, as he clocked 48.89, beating Matt Grevers and Jason Lezak by more than a second. The question comes up again: can Phelps win the 100 free in London? Obviously, scheduling will be an issue, since the event’s semi-final comes just before the 200 fly final and also on the same night as the 4x200 free relay final. Major decisions still to be made obviously.

In recent weeks, we have seen some truly impressive collegiate performances at conference meets. These range from Arianna Vanderpool-Wallace’s U.S. Open records in the 100 free at SECs to Dax Hill’s continued breakout at Big-12s to Kyle Whittaker’s nation-beating IMs at Big-10s as just a freshman. However, the biggest story has been Conor Dwyer’s coming-out party at SECs. The Florida senior set SEC championship records in winning the 500 free (4:11.36) and 400 IM (3:37.75), and these times also stand as the top times in the nation. He opened the meet with a 1:31.73 lead-off leg on the 800 free relay, just one one-hundredth of a second away from Dave Walters’ American record. Due to numerous event conflicts, Dwyer, like Phelps on the Olympic level, has numerous scheduling decisions to make for NCAAs. He also has the potential to throw down a monster 200 IM or 200 breast, although his 1,650 experiment at SECs did not pan out as expected, losing in a blowout to Georgia’s Martin Grodski, while teammate Connor Signorin also got ahead of Dwyer at the finish. Dwyer’s performances at this meet show him to be a bona fide Olympic contender and not just as a relay alternate (as he is on the World Champs team). One of the scariest parts of his SECs performance was He has serious individual potential in the 400 free, and possibly even the 200 free, 200 IM, or 400 IM, and we’ve yet to see how good a 200 breaststroker he could be. World, watch out for Conor Dwyer!

Going into men’s Pac-10s, everyone talked about the showdown between Tom Shields and Austin Staab in the 100 fly. Staab won this event at NCAAs in 2009, posting an American record of 44.18, while Shields won in 2010 in Staab’s absence. The addition to the field of Olympic gold medalist and star sprinter Nathan Adrian showed that it would be truly memorable. It failed to disappoint. Stroke for stroke the entire way, Staab got his hands on the wall first, 44.66 to 44.78. Shields swam his best time, ahead of the 44.91 in which he won NCAAs last year, while Staab broke his 2009 Pac-10 record of 44.72 he set on the way to his 44.18 at NCAAs. With the NCAA Championships looming in three weeks time, the question remains: who will win? And can they get down to Staab’s 44.18 from the days of polyurethane suits? This should be one of the primer races of the meet, and if either man breaks the record, it will be an astounding swim.

Shields, meanwhile, proved over the course of Pac-10s to be much more than just a 100 flyer. On the opening day, he led off Cal’s 800 free relay in 1:32.88. With the swim, he became the first Cal swimmer under 1:33 and broke Matt Biondi’s school record. No one would come close to that time in winning the individual 200 free, as Dimitri Colupaev touched first in 1:34.05. An hour after taking a close second to Staab in the 100 fly, Shields won the 100 back in 45.65. He is by no means a backstroker and has hardly ever swum the event, but he now has the third fastest time in the country. However, he saved his best performance for last. Shields won the 200 fly in 1:40.31, breaking the NCAA record and swimming the third fastest time ever, behind two of Phelps’ performances. To top it all off, Shields spilt a 41.83 on Cal’s winning 400 free relay. Shields won Swimmer of the Meet, but he will have much bigger honors coming his way in the next few years at this rate. Don’t be surprised to hear about Tom Shields on the 2012 Olympic team.

Back at the Indy Grand Prix, the U.S. women proved that they are back to the forefront of world swimming. Missy Franklin continued her rapid ascendance, with a 59.56 100 back and 2:07.96 200 back, leaving her first and second in the world in those two events, respectively. Chloe Sutton, Katie Hoff, and Kate Ziegler clocked what at the time stood as the top three times in the world in the 400 free, all sub-4:07. (Rebecca Adlington and Jazmin Carlin beat those times at British Nationals today.) Ziegler and Sutton went head-to-head in the 800 free, and both posted sub-8:30 swims. Hoff and Franklin crossed paths in the 200 free, where Hoff posted a blazing sub-1:58 swim and Franklin kept rolling, breaking 1:59 for the first time. Dana Vollmer, Jessica Hardy, and Missy Franklin all swam in the low 25s in the 50 free and under 55 in the 100 free, while Vollmer and Elaine Breeden are now ranked first and second in the world in the 100 and 200 fly, respectively.

As for the men, things are finally starting to piece together for what should be a dominant team 17 months down the line. Phelps is finally headed in the right direction, while Ryan Lochte showed that while he is in the midst of the hardest training of his life, he can still knock off something ridiculous, like his 54.08 100 back and 1:57.63 200 back. Tyler Clary and Peter Vanderkaay both showed that they can race tough, as things are coming together for both this season as well. Matt Grevers continues his rebound after missing the Pan Pacs last summer, while new U.S. backstroke champion David Plummer continues to prove his win in Irvine last summer was no fluke. To show off U.S. backstroke depth, Nick Thoman posted a 53.93 100 back as a medley relay lead-off, meaning that the U.S. is now ranked 3rd-7th in the world for 100 back. In the breaststroke events, Mark Gangloff and Eric Shanteau provided comfort for U.S. fans in the 100 and 200 distances, respectively, while Sean Mahoney returned from a doping suspension to show up the big guns. The puzzle is starting to come together to form something magnificent.

With the NCAA Championships coming up just weeks down the line, be sure to play Podium Pursuit (fantasy swimming) to test your swimming knowledge against the biggest swim geeks out there. Finally, I leave a list of my February swimmers of the month. These swimmers all performed excellent in February and are on track for big things down the line.

American - Rebecca Soni (USA) and Conor Dwyer (USA)
Europe - Katinka Hosszu (HUN) and Yannick Agnel (FRA)
Africa - Wendy Trott (RSA) and Ous Mellouli (TUN)
Pac Rim - Belinda Hocking (AUS) and Kosuke Kitajima (JPN)

Saturday, February 12, 2011

South Carolina Short Course State Championships: MUSC Swim Team

Recently, the MUSC Swim Team competed at the South Carolina Short Course State Championships. The meet took place February 3-6 in Rock Hill The team, just four months old, performed exceptionally, posting 11 top-ten A-final swims. The team practices at the MUSC Wellness Center, often with just two lanes of space, which frequently leads to cramped conditions. Despite this, 88% of the swimmers on the State Team, which included Chloe Holowczenko, Carina Kastenholz, Cherokee Grooms, Casey Buck, and David Rieder, swam at least one personal best time, in most cases improving on marks set just two or three weeks before. Coach Rick Hancock said after the meet, “Coach Greg (Stallworth) and I set the bar pretty high with our expectations, but the swimmers went above and beyond that bar consistently throughout the entire season, and to top it off with the caliber of performances at State was something special.”

The Welsh twins, Sarah Anne and Meredith, led the way for MUSC, each posting fourth-place finishes in one event in the 11-12 girls age group. Sarah Anne took fourth in the 50 back (30.56) in one of four finals races. She also placed seventh in the 50 free (26.71), 10th in the 100 free (59.98), and eighth in the 100 back (1:09.13). She also took 15th in the 100 IM (1:08.91), and her performances earned her All-State honors. Meanwhile, her twin sister Meredith earned fourth in the 50 breast (33.35), 10th in the 100 breast (1:15.48), and 19th in the 100 IM (1:10.19).

Dalton Delp also earned All-State, making the finals of both the 13-14 50 free (23.86) and 100 free (53.07). Teammate Trey Dimuzio also made an impact, taking seventh in the 200 fly (2:10.30), 11th in the 100 free (52.75), 14th in the 100 fly (1:00.35), 15th in both the 50 free (24.52) and 100 breast (1:09.99), and 20th in the 200 free (1:56.44). Other impressive swims among 13-14 boys included Tyler Wolter’s 20th-place finish in the 100 breast (1:11.98) and Ryan Laban finishing 18th in the 200 breast (2:35.59).

Cassidy Rindge made the final of the 13-14 girls’ 100 breast, taking 10th (1:14.38). Rindge also finished 11th in the 200 breast (2:42.92), as did Gabby Dizon in the 50 free (26.31). Dizon also grabbed 16th in the 100 free (57,42), 18th in the 100 back (1:05.68), and 20th in the 100 fly (1:04.73).

Jacob Dupree and Evan Howard provided the team highlights for 15-18 boys. Dupree finished sixth in the 100 breast (1:00.78), 10th in the 200 breast (2:18.59), and 20th in the 100 free (51.04). Howard, meanwhile, took 18th in the 200 back (2:07.95) and 19th in the 100 free (50.78). In the 11-12 boys age group, Jackson Seith finished sixth in a pair of breaststroke races, the 50 (34.75) and 100 (1:17.71). Seith also placed in the top-20 in the 50 and 200 free.

Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Twitter Change

Quick update. I have changed my account name on Twitter. I am now "David_Rieder" and you can find my (irregular) posts at twitter.com/David_Rieder.

Saturday, January 22, 2011

The Austin Grand Prix, Phelps, Lochte, and the French

I’m David Rieder. You may know me by my nickname, “The Swim Geek.” To say I like swimming is an understatement; swimming is pretty much my life. I swim almost every day after school before coming home to think about swimming and discussing the sport in Facebook chats. I make bets with my coach and debate predictions with people who I may have never met in person. I am here at The Athlete Village to make new discussions about the sport of swimming, hopefully creating more reader involvement with my blog than I ever have before. I want to hear your opinions and what you have to say. I will try to make my blog here a weekly post, though I can certainly make no promises. I also can’t promise that it will be new, genuine, or cutting edge, but I will do my best to relate it to what is going on in swimming during any given week. Most importantly, let’s get excited about the lead-up to London, where our sport will be more popular than ever, and let’s get excited about these meets along the way where we will see some of the most exciting competition to date.

My first topics of discussion here at The Athlete Village are the few long course meets we have seen thus far in 2011. First and foremost, we saw many of USA Swimming’s top stars compete at the Austin Grand Prix, namely Michael Phelps. Having not competed at a top-level meet since Pan Pacs in August, a shaggy-looking Phelps arrived in Austin claiming, as he has so many times over the last year, to be out of shape. He left the meet with not too much to brag about, but he claimed that his disappointments in Austin would further motivate him in training as he looks towards Worlds this summer and the Olympics next year.

Really? I could have sworn I heard the same thing during fall 2009, when Phelps showed up to World Cup meets in Berlin and Stockholm and was handed several large defeats. I remember something very similar after the Long Beach Grand Prix last January, where Phelps mustered enough mental strength to out-touch Hidemasa Sano in a head-to-head 400 IM but didn’t exceed expectations otherwise. How about when he missed the Columbus Grand Prix in April for no reason, while his teammates went and swam exceptionally? Or after the Paris Open, where he received a stern wake-up call with a defeat to French teenager Yannick Agnel and Dutch standout Sebastiaan Verschuren in the 200 free and finished dead last in the 100 free? Ryan Lochte took the spotlight at Nationals and Pan Pacs, where Phelps was a clear also-ran. He promised to return to hard training straight away.

And yet, he has not. Do we really give Phelps the benefit of the doubt this time? With each passing meet, it looks more and more like Phelps won’t be able to turn things around in time for London if he wants to achieve great success, such as breaking another world record in the 100 or 200 fly or challenging Ryan Lochte in the 200 free or 200 IM. It’s funny; we would never have questioned his ability to do any of these things just one year ago. However, his swims since have shown otherwise, and what we saw last weekend in Austin changed very little.

In Austin, Phelps’ good swims came in 100-meter races and his not-so-good swims in 200-meter races. To provide context for his times, I will compare them to his times from the Charlotte UltraSwim last year. In the 100 fly, he swam about a tenth slower (52.55), and in the 100 back, two tenths slower (54.14). Considering this is January and not May, that’s actually pretty impressive, as was his 100 free (50.09). These swims led Garrett McCaffrey to remind us yesterday on the McCaffreyCap that, “He’s Michael-Freaking-Phelps!” However, in the longer races the results are not so encouraging. His 200 free (1:49.90) was 2.2 seconds slower than what we saw him swim in Charlotte last year, and he added 3.2 seconds in his 200 IM. These are startling and disturbing statistics, especially in comparison to his rival Lochte.

Traditionally, Phelps has swum solid times in-season, while Lochte, beaten down from his training, has not. For that reason, I predicted Phelps to come out ahead of Lochte in both the 200 free and 200 IM. However, Lochte proved me wrong; in the 200 free, Lochte put up a time of 1:49.25, just off his best in-season time from last year, a 1:49.05 in Charlotte. Phelps, meanwhile, finished six tenths behind, from his position in the B-final. Lochte’s 1:59.26 in the 200 IM surpassed his one in-season 200 IM last year, swum just weeks before he put up dual 1:54 swims at Nationals and Pan Pacs. From these statistics, it is evident that Phelps is no where near where Lochte is right now in training and in preparation for the culmination of their rivalry in London 2012.

In a blog about the Austin Grand Prix, I feel I must mention two further standout performers. Most have heard about Missy Franklin’s extraordinary performances in Austin. 1:59 in the 200 free, 59.7 in the 100 back, 2:14 in the 200 IM, and 2:09 in the 100 back. She is huge. She will be huge. Not that enough can be said about her performance this past week, but I will move on. One of the more underrated performances this weekend was Tyler Clary. On the first day, he swam a 4:21 in the 400 IM, more than respectable after two weeks off and then two weeks of intense training. The next day, Clary exceeded his own expectations with a 1:59 200 fly. But it was the final day when Clary amazed crowds; his 1:57 in the 200 back is nothing less than amazing. That time is less than a second off his third-place time from Nationals this summer! He is on track for big things, just like Lochte and Missy Franklin. At least two and maybe even three medals at the World Championships this summer are very possible.

This weekend, members of Team France have jumped to the top of this year’s world rankings with top performances at the meet in Nancy, France. While the French are most likely at a different point in their training season, since their Trials for the World Championships are in March, these times show just how big a threat France will be in Shanghai. Take, for example, the men’s 100 back. In 2008, you may remember, France had one of the strongest 300 medley teams in the world – but no backstroker under 55. Oh, how things have changed. Last year’s world dominator Camille Lacourt posted a 53.45 today, while Jeremy Stravius, the silver medalist at the European championships behind Lacourt, took second in 53.78. So far, Phelps is the closest, with his 54.14 in Austin. With just three years’ turnaround, France has a realistic chance to finish 1-2 in that event at Worlds. Moreover, Lacourt could break Peirsol’s world record of 51.94 in Shanghai, maybe before. He is certainly on pace to pull off the feat this year. Certainly, Americans Nick Thoman and David Plummer won’t roll over, especially with the American legacy in this event, while Junya Koga won’t easily roll over his World title to the Frenchmen. Even Great Britain’s Liam Tancock will be a tough force in this event. But right now, this event belongs to France.

The name Camille has surely been a magical one in Nancy. Camille Muffat won the 200 and 400 free in the fastest times in the world. Her 1:58.00 in the 200 free beat Femke Heemskerk in a head-to-head matchup, while both surpassed Katie Hoff’s 1:58.69 from Austin. Muffat posted a 4:07.82 in the 400 free on Friday, far surpassing the 4:08.28 and 4:08.35 posted last week by Kate Ziegler and Rebecca Adlington, respectively. Muffat’s time beats Hoff’s 4:09.51 from Austin by nearly two seconds. Riding a wave of confidence from her win in the 200 free at the Short Course Worlds in Dubai, Muffat is developing into a real threat in the mid-distance free races, as well as the 200 IM, in which she finished fifth at the Worlds in Rome, and even the 100 free, where she placed fourth in Dubai. She is another French swimmer with a real chance to make a mark in Shanghai.

The Austin Grand Prix went well for American swimmers, but the World Championship team has a ways to go to dominate like they did in 2007, when 20 out of the 40 gold medals awarded went to American swimmers or relay teams. Obviously, the French will be one of the biggest threats, with a pair of Camilles looking really strong. The Chinese will be another major player at this meet, and we will see how much of a threat their swimmers will be at the home World Champs in Shanghai once they swim at their Nationals. But for right now, we’ve got Lochte; right now, he is the shinning beacon for Team USA.