Yesterday, the Cal women's team won the NCAA Championship in Austin. Not only did I predict that, but I successfully predicted the top three teams in the correct order. Of the thirteen individual events I predicted on this blog, I got nine of them right. (Note: this does not mean what I put on Podium Pursuit...) After a fairly successful hit-out last week, I am pretty confident about my men's predictions. Here goes:
Thursday, March 24:
200 Free Relay
1. Cal
2. Auburn
3. Texas
500 Free
1. Conor Dwyer, Florida
2. Matt McLean, Virginia
3. Jackson Wilcox, Texas
Darkhorse – Hassaan Abdel-Khalik, Michigan
200 IM
1. Austin Staab, Stanford
2. Austin Surhoff, Texas
3. Kyle Whitaker, Michigan
Darkhorse – Nimrod Shapira Bar-Or, Arizona
50 Free
1. Nathan Adrian, Cal
2. Jimmy Feigen, Texas
3. Vlad Morozov, USC
Darkhorse – Josh Daniels, Cal
400 Medley Relay
1. Cal
2. Florida
3. Texas
Friday, March 25:
200 Medley Relay
1. Cal
2. Texas
3. Florida
400 IM
1. Conor Dwyer, Florida
2. Bill Cregar, Georgia
3. Kyle Whitaker, Michigan
Darkhorse – Austin Surhoff, Texas
100 Fly
1. Tom Shields, Cal
2. Austin Staab, Stanford
3. Graeme Moore, Cal
Darkhorse – Mathias Gydesen, Cal
200 Free
1. Nimrod Shapira Bar-Or, Arizona
2. Scot Robison, Virginia
3. Dax Hill, Texas
Darkhorse – Scott Jostes, Texas
100 Breast
1. Damir Dugonjic, Cal
2. Scott Spann, Texas
3. Nolan Koon, Cal
Darkhorse – Adam Klein, Auburn
100 Back
1. Cory Chitwood, Arizona
2. Tom Shields, Cal
3. Eric Ress, Indiana
Darkhorse – Vlad Morozov, USC
800 Free Relay
1. Florida
2. Texas
3. Virginia
Saturday, March 26:
1,650 Free
1. Chad LaTourette, Stanford
2. Martin Grodski, Georgia
3. Michael McBroom, Texas
Darkhorse – Richard Charlesworth, USC
200 Back
1. Cory Chitwood, Arizona
2. Marco Loughran, Florida
3. Austin Surhoff, Texas
Darkhorse – Hayes Johnson, Texas
100 Free
1. Nathan Adrian, Cal
2. Vlad Morozov, USC
3. Jimmy Feigen, Texas
Darkhorse – Conor Dwyer, Florida
200 Breast
1. Scott Spann, Texas
2. Nick D’Innocenzo, Texas
3. Adam Klein, Auburn
Darkhorse – Martii Aljand, Cal
200 Fly
1. Tom Shields, Cal
2. Mark Dylla, Georgia
3. Dan Madwed, Michigan
Darkhorse – Neil Caskey, Texas
400 Free Relay
1. Cal
2. Stanford
3. Texas
Top Ten:
1. Cal
2. Texas
3. Stanford
4. Arizona
5. Florida
6. Auburn
7. USC
8. Michigan
9. Virginia
10. Georgia
Sunday, March 20, 2011
Saturday, March 19, 2011
All Great Racers Part Three
This is the third weekend of March and the third straight weekend of stellar fast swimming. From the drama of an NCAA team title race in Austin to the next wave of America’s superstars in Orlando to the fastest high school meet in the country in Pennsylvania, featuring arguably the greatest high school swimmer in history. Without further ado, take your mark!
The biggest story of the weekend is the three-way battle for the team title at the Women’s NCAA Championships in Austin. After day one, Georgia, Stanford, USC, and Cal were within all within 15 points. Stanford started to fall back on the second day, as Cal used a string of superb performances to vault ahead. After prelims today, Cal has established itself as the clear favorite to win another National title, just like the Bears did back in 2009. Just like in 2009, Georgia should finish in second, and the up-and-coming Trojans should get third. Of course, day three last year was when the Arizona vaulted themselves in front of the favored Stanford for several events, only for Florida to catch them in diving and hold off Stanford and Cal for the win. A lot could change tonight.
Two performances for Cal yesterday really changed the face of the meet in their favor. First, senior Amanda Sims reclaimed her 100 fly title that she had previously won in 2009. She steamrolled right past the 51.43 that Elaine Breeden won in last year, the 51.28 she clocked to win in 2009, and any time on the all-time list recorded by Olympians Christine Magnuson and Dana Vollmer. Sims’ 50.49 makes her the fourth-fastest in history, behind only Natalie Coughlin and Rachel Komisarz. This morning, she clocked a top time in the 200 fly of 1:53.17, ahead of the USC tandem of Katinka Hosszu and Lyndsay De Paul. Sims dropped 1.5 seconds from prelims to finals in her 100 fly yesterday; if she can drop a similar margin, she will be in the mix for the win or at least a top-three finish.
Can Sims make a mark nationally and internationally? Last year at this meet, she clocked 51.85 in the 100 fly for third place. At Long Course Nationals, she took tenth in 59.31. A long course drop similar to that which she posted short course would take her into the 57-range, into which among Americans only Magnuson and Vollmer touched in 2010. Additionally, Teri McKeever has been known for getting her swimmers to step up at every corner. She has coached Natalie Coughlin and Dana Vollmer to superstardom, and she helped Caitlin Leverenz and Madison Kennedy earn surprising berths on the 2010 Pan Pac team. McKeever is also head Olympic coach for 2012 and should tonight wrap up her second NCAA team title. Sims will have completed her eligibility after this season, and all the pieces are in place for a 2012 Olympic run.
One of the biggest stories of the meet has been the rise of Texas A&M freshman Breeja Larson as a national contender in breaststroke. Three weeks ago, Larson finished runner-up to Texas’ Laura Sogar in both breaststroke distances at Big-12s in Austin. Her return trip to Austin, however, has been significantly more fruitful. Larson first turned heads on the 400 medley relay, where she split 57.88 to help A&M to the B-final win. The next night in the 100 breast, she nearly ran down favorite Jillian Tyler in the final. Tyler won in 58.39, followed closely by Larson, in 58.51. This time is a considerable drop from her entry of 59.27, recorded at Big-12s. The scariest part: Larson began swimming year-round just over a year ago, during her senior year of high school!
Larson’s achievements last night led The Swimmers Circle’s Braden Keith to comment afterwards, “We’ve just seen the metaphorical birth of the next great American breaststroker.” In today’s 200 breast prelims, Larson qualified third in 2:08.03, dropping three tenths from her Big-12 time. Expect her to give favorites Tyler and Caitlin Leverenz a real run in tonight’s final. By next year, with another crucial year of swimming under her belt, we could see something stellar on the NCAA level and maybe even on the international scene. Certainly, with the breakthrough we have already seen from Larson, the sky is the limit for her.
In Austin last night, Cal freshman Cindy Tran and Deborah Roth went 1-2 in the 100 back. However, someone even younger ripped off a faster time at the NCSA Junior Nationals in Orlando. Rachel Bootsma, a junior in high school, clocked 50.76, well ahead of Tran’s 51.30. The time moved Bootsma to third on the all-time list, behind only double Olympic champion Natalie Coughlin and world champion Gemma Spofforth. Bootsma is not just a speedy backstroker, having outstanding versatility and a powerful underwater dolphin kick which has already led Bootsma to a sweep of the butterfly races. She is slated to compete tonight in the 200 IM, 50 free, and 50 back. In the 50 back, she led all qualifiers by more than a second! Already a Pan Pacs team member this summer and bronze medalist in the 50 back, Bootsma has some serious upside potential, and it would not be surprising for her to enter college as the American record-holder in the 100 back. Expect big things from her down the line.
In my blog last week, I discussed the potential for David Nolan to break National High School records at the Pennsylvania High School State Championships this weekend. With one out of two finals sessions at Bucknell University out of the way, he has not disappointed. His 200 IM time of 1:41.39 obliterated his old national mark of 1:43.43 set last year. More importantly, that time is well ahead of Austin Staab’s 1:42.01 that sits as the top seed headed into NCAA Championships. Additionally, Nolan swam 19.62 in the 50 free to lead-off the 200 free relay, not far off Vlad Morozov’s national record of 19.43 set last year. Oh, and his team from Hershey lowered the national record for that relay by more than a second!
Tonight, Nolan will compete in the 100 back final and most likely swim the lead-off leg of Hershey’s 400 free relay. This morning, he posted a 47.37 100 back, and he will be shooting for Cole Craigin’s national record of 46.75 in finals. He will also chase Morozov’s 42.91 national 100 free record and is expected to bust through both. Some now consider him the greatest high school swimmer of all time! The incoming Stanford freshman has mighty expectations to live up to; in NCAA competition, he could win multiple national titles as a freshman and make major contributions to Stanford’s relays. He has been discussed as a potential 2012 Olympian, as a relay alternate or maybe even an individual event. Even a medal in London is a possibility. But as we’ve seen this week, Nolan is not one to shy away from expectations; he just shatters them.
The biggest story of the weekend is the three-way battle for the team title at the Women’s NCAA Championships in Austin. After day one, Georgia, Stanford, USC, and Cal were within all within 15 points. Stanford started to fall back on the second day, as Cal used a string of superb performances to vault ahead. After prelims today, Cal has established itself as the clear favorite to win another National title, just like the Bears did back in 2009. Just like in 2009, Georgia should finish in second, and the up-and-coming Trojans should get third. Of course, day three last year was when the Arizona vaulted themselves in front of the favored Stanford for several events, only for Florida to catch them in diving and hold off Stanford and Cal for the win. A lot could change tonight.
Two performances for Cal yesterday really changed the face of the meet in their favor. First, senior Amanda Sims reclaimed her 100 fly title that she had previously won in 2009. She steamrolled right past the 51.43 that Elaine Breeden won in last year, the 51.28 she clocked to win in 2009, and any time on the all-time list recorded by Olympians Christine Magnuson and Dana Vollmer. Sims’ 50.49 makes her the fourth-fastest in history, behind only Natalie Coughlin and Rachel Komisarz. This morning, she clocked a top time in the 200 fly of 1:53.17, ahead of the USC tandem of Katinka Hosszu and Lyndsay De Paul. Sims dropped 1.5 seconds from prelims to finals in her 100 fly yesterday; if she can drop a similar margin, she will be in the mix for the win or at least a top-three finish.
Can Sims make a mark nationally and internationally? Last year at this meet, she clocked 51.85 in the 100 fly for third place. At Long Course Nationals, she took tenth in 59.31. A long course drop similar to that which she posted short course would take her into the 57-range, into which among Americans only Magnuson and Vollmer touched in 2010. Additionally, Teri McKeever has been known for getting her swimmers to step up at every corner. She has coached Natalie Coughlin and Dana Vollmer to superstardom, and she helped Caitlin Leverenz and Madison Kennedy earn surprising berths on the 2010 Pan Pac team. McKeever is also head Olympic coach for 2012 and should tonight wrap up her second NCAA team title. Sims will have completed her eligibility after this season, and all the pieces are in place for a 2012 Olympic run.
One of the biggest stories of the meet has been the rise of Texas A&M freshman Breeja Larson as a national contender in breaststroke. Three weeks ago, Larson finished runner-up to Texas’ Laura Sogar in both breaststroke distances at Big-12s in Austin. Her return trip to Austin, however, has been significantly more fruitful. Larson first turned heads on the 400 medley relay, where she split 57.88 to help A&M to the B-final win. The next night in the 100 breast, she nearly ran down favorite Jillian Tyler in the final. Tyler won in 58.39, followed closely by Larson, in 58.51. This time is a considerable drop from her entry of 59.27, recorded at Big-12s. The scariest part: Larson began swimming year-round just over a year ago, during her senior year of high school!
Larson’s achievements last night led The Swimmers Circle’s Braden Keith to comment afterwards, “We’ve just seen the metaphorical birth of the next great American breaststroker.” In today’s 200 breast prelims, Larson qualified third in 2:08.03, dropping three tenths from her Big-12 time. Expect her to give favorites Tyler and Caitlin Leverenz a real run in tonight’s final. By next year, with another crucial year of swimming under her belt, we could see something stellar on the NCAA level and maybe even on the international scene. Certainly, with the breakthrough we have already seen from Larson, the sky is the limit for her.
In Austin last night, Cal freshman Cindy Tran and Deborah Roth went 1-2 in the 100 back. However, someone even younger ripped off a faster time at the NCSA Junior Nationals in Orlando. Rachel Bootsma, a junior in high school, clocked 50.76, well ahead of Tran’s 51.30. The time moved Bootsma to third on the all-time list, behind only double Olympic champion Natalie Coughlin and world champion Gemma Spofforth. Bootsma is not just a speedy backstroker, having outstanding versatility and a powerful underwater dolphin kick which has already led Bootsma to a sweep of the butterfly races. She is slated to compete tonight in the 200 IM, 50 free, and 50 back. In the 50 back, she led all qualifiers by more than a second! Already a Pan Pacs team member this summer and bronze medalist in the 50 back, Bootsma has some serious upside potential, and it would not be surprising for her to enter college as the American record-holder in the 100 back. Expect big things from her down the line.
In my blog last week, I discussed the potential for David Nolan to break National High School records at the Pennsylvania High School State Championships this weekend. With one out of two finals sessions at Bucknell University out of the way, he has not disappointed. His 200 IM time of 1:41.39 obliterated his old national mark of 1:43.43 set last year. More importantly, that time is well ahead of Austin Staab’s 1:42.01 that sits as the top seed headed into NCAA Championships. Additionally, Nolan swam 19.62 in the 50 free to lead-off the 200 free relay, not far off Vlad Morozov’s national record of 19.43 set last year. Oh, and his team from Hershey lowered the national record for that relay by more than a second!
Tonight, Nolan will compete in the 100 back final and most likely swim the lead-off leg of Hershey’s 400 free relay. This morning, he posted a 47.37 100 back, and he will be shooting for Cole Craigin’s national record of 46.75 in finals. He will also chase Morozov’s 42.91 national 100 free record and is expected to bust through both. Some now consider him the greatest high school swimmer of all time! The incoming Stanford freshman has mighty expectations to live up to; in NCAA competition, he could win multiple national titles as a freshman and make major contributions to Stanford’s relays. He has been discussed as a potential 2012 Olympian, as a relay alternate or maybe even an individual event. Even a medal in London is a possibility. But as we’ve seen this week, Nolan is not one to shy away from expectations; he just shatters them.
Sunday, March 13, 2011
All Great Racers Part Two
Last week, I blogged about the fast swimming we saw from Michael Phelps at the Indy Grand Prix and the short course yards benchmarks achieved at men’s Pac-10s. However, I left out one of the biggest storylines of the weekend: the 15 year old superstar that has established herself as one of the most consistent swimmers in the States. Additionally, I will provide insight into one of the most anticipated high school meets in the country, highlighted by one superstar swimmer who will be making an impact sooner than most people realize.
Last week in Indianapolis, Missy Franklin swept the backstrokes, posting the top time of the year in the 100 (59.56) and second-fastest time of the year in the 200 (2:07.96). She also posted tenth-ranked times in the 100 and 200 free; she took third in the 100 (54.93) behind Dana Vollmer and Jessica Hardy and second in the 200 (1:58.75) to Katie Hoff. All of these times are personal bests, faster than she posted at Nationals or Pan Pacs this summer! To provide some perspective on how fast she has been, let’s look at her results from last year’s Charlotte UltraSwim – two months further into the season! She won the 200 back (2:11.78), tied for third in the 100 back (1:01.83), took sixth in the 200 free (2:00.45), and finished eighth in the 100 free (56.89). Already, she is two seconds faster in most of her races and four seconds faster in the 200 back!
If Franklin can drop another four seconds in the 200 back by Worlds, she would be more than a second underneath the world record! Obviously, I do not see her dropping that amount of time, but she could definitely be within range of the American record, which is 2:06.09. Quite possibly, that could win the race. She will not be swimming the 100 back, but she is already the fourth-fastest American of all time behind Natalie Coughlin, Hayley McGregory, and Margaret Hoelzer, and only Coughlin has bested that time in a textile suit. Unfortunately, she will not compete in the 100 distance this summer, having finished just behind Elizabeth Pelton at Pan Pacs, 1:00.14 to 1:00.15. Franklin is scheduled to compete in the prelims of the 4x100 free relay, and a 54.93 this early in the season means that she could challenge for a finals spot. She did not make the team in the 4x200 free relay, but she could be a huge asset to that team as well.
While Franklin continues her rapid ascension, other American backstrokers are not sitting on the laurels. Last weekend, Pelton broke the American record in the 200 short course yard backstroke. Her 1:49.16 beat Coughlin’s nine year old mark of 1:49.62 set at the 2002 NCAAs. Beating Coughlin, arguably the greatest short course swimmer of all time, is monumental for Pelton, as she tries to hold off Franklin’s charge. At next year’s Olympic Trials in Omaha, the backstrokes will be among the most competitive races. Franklin, Pelton, Coughlin, and others such as Rachel Bootsma will battle for berths in the 100 back, while Franklin and Pelton will face off with Pan Pac Champion Elizabeth Beisel in the 200 back. All four superstars are on the Worlds team, Coughlin and Pelton in the 100 back and Beisel and Franklin in the 200 back. However, the Olympic team may not have so many different slots available for backstroke, and we will see some serious dogfights in those events.
The Pennsylvania High School State Championships are this week, and the meet shapes up to be another record-breaking one for Hershey’s David Nolan. As a junior last year, Nolan set a National High School record of 1:43.43 in the 200 IM, which would have tied him for fourth at the NCAA Championships. This year, he will try to lay down a benchmark headed into that meet. Stanford’s Austin Staab enters as the top seed at 1:42.01; if Nolan beats that mark, he will establish a high school record that should be untouchable for years. Nolan, who will also swim for Stanford next year, has already established himself as one of the best young swimmers in the USA, and his coming is welcome considering that the U.S. men’s team is the oldest it has ever been and consists of very few collegians and no high schoolers.
Last week in Indianapolis, Missy Franklin swept the backstrokes, posting the top time of the year in the 100 (59.56) and second-fastest time of the year in the 200 (2:07.96). She also posted tenth-ranked times in the 100 and 200 free; she took third in the 100 (54.93) behind Dana Vollmer and Jessica Hardy and second in the 200 (1:58.75) to Katie Hoff. All of these times are personal bests, faster than she posted at Nationals or Pan Pacs this summer! To provide some perspective on how fast she has been, let’s look at her results from last year’s Charlotte UltraSwim – two months further into the season! She won the 200 back (2:11.78), tied for third in the 100 back (1:01.83), took sixth in the 200 free (2:00.45), and finished eighth in the 100 free (56.89). Already, she is two seconds faster in most of her races and four seconds faster in the 200 back!
If Franklin can drop another four seconds in the 200 back by Worlds, she would be more than a second underneath the world record! Obviously, I do not see her dropping that amount of time, but she could definitely be within range of the American record, which is 2:06.09. Quite possibly, that could win the race. She will not be swimming the 100 back, but she is already the fourth-fastest American of all time behind Natalie Coughlin, Hayley McGregory, and Margaret Hoelzer, and only Coughlin has bested that time in a textile suit. Unfortunately, she will not compete in the 100 distance this summer, having finished just behind Elizabeth Pelton at Pan Pacs, 1:00.14 to 1:00.15. Franklin is scheduled to compete in the prelims of the 4x100 free relay, and a 54.93 this early in the season means that she could challenge for a finals spot. She did not make the team in the 4x200 free relay, but she could be a huge asset to that team as well.
While Franklin continues her rapid ascension, other American backstrokers are not sitting on the laurels. Last weekend, Pelton broke the American record in the 200 short course yard backstroke. Her 1:49.16 beat Coughlin’s nine year old mark of 1:49.62 set at the 2002 NCAAs. Beating Coughlin, arguably the greatest short course swimmer of all time, is monumental for Pelton, as she tries to hold off Franklin’s charge. At next year’s Olympic Trials in Omaha, the backstrokes will be among the most competitive races. Franklin, Pelton, Coughlin, and others such as Rachel Bootsma will battle for berths in the 100 back, while Franklin and Pelton will face off with Pan Pac Champion Elizabeth Beisel in the 200 back. All four superstars are on the Worlds team, Coughlin and Pelton in the 100 back and Beisel and Franklin in the 200 back. However, the Olympic team may not have so many different slots available for backstroke, and we will see some serious dogfights in those events.
The Pennsylvania High School State Championships are this week, and the meet shapes up to be another record-breaking one for Hershey’s David Nolan. As a junior last year, Nolan set a National High School record of 1:43.43 in the 200 IM, which would have tied him for fourth at the NCAA Championships. This year, he will try to lay down a benchmark headed into that meet. Stanford’s Austin Staab enters as the top seed at 1:42.01; if Nolan beats that mark, he will establish a high school record that should be untouchable for years. Nolan, who will also swim for Stanford next year, has already established himself as one of the best young swimmers in the USA, and his coming is welcome considering that the U.S. men’s team is the oldest it has ever been and consists of very few collegians and no high schoolers.
For the State meet, Nolan is seeded at 1:47.20 in the 200 IM, from his district meet, where he was unrested and unshaved yet still seeded three seconds ahead of anyone else. He also is entered in the 100 back, where he is top seed at 48.40. He should be a key role on two relays as well; at districts, he split a 19.24 on the 200 free relay. Additionally, last year he led off Hershey's 200 medley relay with a 21.82 backstroke split! Undoubtedly Nolan is one of the most talented pre-collegiate swimmers we have seen in many years, possibly since one named Michael Phelps. Along with the aforementioned Missy Franklin, the future looks bright for Team USA.
Saturday, March 12, 2011
Women's NCAAs
It's that time of year again. NCAA Championship season. The women's meet runs March 17-19 in Austin, while the men take to the pool March 24-26 in Minneapolis. We are going to see two weeks of fierce competition and amazing races, but in each meet, one team will emerge the better. Of course, we won't know which one until possibly the last relay. Last year, everyone thought Stanford or Georgia would walk away with the title until Florida swept ahead and won a 2.5 point victory, with Cal and Arizona both right in the mix for the title as well. Expect this women's meet to be just as tight, and do not expect any of your predictions going in to be correct.
It's also time for one of my favorite activities in swimming: Fantasy Swimming. On Podium Pursuit, I dominated the World Cup competition, but finished second by eight points at Short Course Worlds after I forgot to predict the last day. I hope to reclaim the top spot with this meet. I base my predictions off season-best times and prior experience. I admit there might be some pro-USA bias, as there so often is in my picks. I pick the top three spots in each event, plus a "darkhorse." A darkhorse is a swimmer seeded outside the top-eight but one that could make an impact. Sometimes, there are perfect darkhorses like Felicia Lee (100 fly) or Micah Lawrence (100/200 breast), but sometimes the darkhorses are less obvious. Note that, for the purposes of Podium Pursuit, these predictions are subject to change on a day-by-day basis. Without further ado, here goes:
Thursday, March 17:
200 Medley Relay
1. Stanford
2. Cal
3. Auburn
500 Free
1. Allison Schmitt, Georgia
2. Wendy Trott, Georgia
3. Elizabeth Beisel, Florida
Darkhorse – Chelsea Nauta, Georgia
200 IM
1. Katinka Hosszu, USC
2. Caitlin Leverenz, Cal
3. Morgan Scroggy, Georgia
Darkhorse – Claire Crippen, Virginia
50 Free
1. Arianna Vanderpool-Wallace, Auburn
2. Liv Jensen, Cal
3. Margo Geer, Arizona
Darkhorse – Sam Woodward, Stanford
400 Medley Relay
1. Cal
2. USC
3. Wisconsin
Friday, March 18":
200 Medley Relay
1. Cal
2. USC
3. Auburn
400 IM
1. Katinka Hosszu, USC
2. Elizabeth Beisel, Florida
3. Caitlin Leverenz, Cal
Darkhorse – Teresa Crippen, Florida
100 Fly
1. Lyndsay De Paul, USC
2. Amanda Sims, Cal
3. Jenny Connelly, Tennessee
Darkhorse – Felicia Lee, Stanford
200 Free
1. Allison Schmitt, Georgia
2. Morgan Scroggy, Georgia
3. Lauren Perdue, Virginia
Darkhorse – Sara Isokovic, Cal
100 Breast
1. Jillian Tyler, Minnesota
2. Kasey Carlson, USC
3. Ellyn Baumgardner, Arizona
Darkhorse – Micah Lawrence, Auburn
100 Back
1. Presley Bard, USC
2. Cindy Tran, Cal
3. Maggie Meyer, Wisconsin
Darkhorse – Elizabeth Webb, Stanford
800 Free Relay
1. Georgia
2. Florida
3. Cal
Saturday, March 19
1,650 Free
1. Wendy Trott, Georgia
2. Haley Anderson, USC
3. Ashley Steenvoorden, Minnesota
Darkhorse – Shannon Vreeland, Georgia
200 Back
1. Elizabeth Beisel, Florida
2. Teresa Crippen, Florida
3. Maggie Meyer, Wisconsin
Darkhorse – Sarah Denninghoff, Arizona
100 Free
1. Arianna Vanderpool-Wallace, Auburn
2. Liv Jensen, Cal
3. Morgan Scroggy, Georgia
Darkhorse – Allison Schmitt, Georgia
200 Breast
1. Caitlin Leverenz, Cal
2. Laura Sogar, Texas
3. Jillian Tyler, Minnesota
Darkhorse – Micah Lawrence, Auburn
200 Fly
1. Katinka Hosszu, USC
2. Lyndsay De Paul, USC
3. Teresa Crippen, Florida
Darkhorse – Rachel Naurath, Virginia
400 Free Relay
1. Cal
2. Stanford
3. Georgia
My top ten:
1. Cal
2. Georgia
3. USC
4. Florida
5. Stanford
6. Auburn
7. Texas
8. Arizona
9. Wisconsin
10. Tennessee
It's also time for one of my favorite activities in swimming: Fantasy Swimming. On Podium Pursuit, I dominated the World Cup competition, but finished second by eight points at Short Course Worlds after I forgot to predict the last day. I hope to reclaim the top spot with this meet. I base my predictions off season-best times and prior experience. I admit there might be some pro-USA bias, as there so often is in my picks. I pick the top three spots in each event, plus a "darkhorse." A darkhorse is a swimmer seeded outside the top-eight but one that could make an impact. Sometimes, there are perfect darkhorses like Felicia Lee (100 fly) or Micah Lawrence (100/200 breast), but sometimes the darkhorses are less obvious. Note that, for the purposes of Podium Pursuit, these predictions are subject to change on a day-by-day basis. Without further ado, here goes:
Thursday, March 17:
200 Medley Relay
1. Stanford
2. Cal
3. Auburn
500 Free
1. Allison Schmitt, Georgia
2. Wendy Trott, Georgia
3. Elizabeth Beisel, Florida
Darkhorse – Chelsea Nauta, Georgia
200 IM
1. Katinka Hosszu, USC
2. Caitlin Leverenz, Cal
3. Morgan Scroggy, Georgia
Darkhorse – Claire Crippen, Virginia
50 Free
1. Arianna Vanderpool-Wallace, Auburn
2. Liv Jensen, Cal
3. Margo Geer, Arizona
Darkhorse – Sam Woodward, Stanford
400 Medley Relay
1. Cal
2. USC
3. Wisconsin
Friday, March 18":
200 Medley Relay
1. Cal
2. USC
3. Auburn
400 IM
1. Katinka Hosszu, USC
2. Elizabeth Beisel, Florida
3. Caitlin Leverenz, Cal
Darkhorse – Teresa Crippen, Florida
100 Fly
1. Lyndsay De Paul, USC
2. Amanda Sims, Cal
3. Jenny Connelly, Tennessee
Darkhorse – Felicia Lee, Stanford
200 Free
1. Allison Schmitt, Georgia
2. Morgan Scroggy, Georgia
3. Lauren Perdue, Virginia
Darkhorse – Sara Isokovic, Cal
100 Breast
1. Jillian Tyler, Minnesota
2. Kasey Carlson, USC
3. Ellyn Baumgardner, Arizona
Darkhorse – Micah Lawrence, Auburn
100 Back
1. Presley Bard, USC
2. Cindy Tran, Cal
3. Maggie Meyer, Wisconsin
Darkhorse – Elizabeth Webb, Stanford
800 Free Relay
1. Georgia
2. Florida
3. Cal
Saturday, March 19
1,650 Free
1. Wendy Trott, Georgia
2. Haley Anderson, USC
3. Ashley Steenvoorden, Minnesota
Darkhorse – Shannon Vreeland, Georgia
200 Back
1. Elizabeth Beisel, Florida
2. Teresa Crippen, Florida
3. Maggie Meyer, Wisconsin
Darkhorse – Sarah Denninghoff, Arizona
100 Free
1. Arianna Vanderpool-Wallace, Auburn
2. Liv Jensen, Cal
3. Morgan Scroggy, Georgia
Darkhorse – Allison Schmitt, Georgia
200 Breast
1. Caitlin Leverenz, Cal
2. Laura Sogar, Texas
3. Jillian Tyler, Minnesota
Darkhorse – Micah Lawrence, Auburn
200 Fly
1. Katinka Hosszu, USC
2. Lyndsay De Paul, USC
3. Teresa Crippen, Florida
Darkhorse – Rachel Naurath, Virginia
400 Free Relay
1. Cal
2. Stanford
3. Georgia
My top ten:
1. Cal
2. Georgia
3. USC
4. Florida
5. Stanford
6. Auburn
7. Texas
8. Arizona
9. Wisconsin
10. Tennessee
Saturday, March 5, 2011
All Great Racers
I’m back! It’s been about six weeks since I have posted one of my usual blogs about pro swimming due to a number of other distractions in my life. Aside from two and a half hours a day of swim practice, I have been writing recaps about high school swimming at Swimming World and this weekend also the American Short Course championships. I have attempted to keep up with the many conference meets going on around the country, having up to three live webcasts playing at once to watch them all and make sense of them, with the NCAA Championships looming. I am currently participating in an Olympics round table with Tom Willdridge and Braden Keith, where we examine Olympic potentials, now that the schedule has been released. Not to mention that I am currently taking the hardest school course load of my life. But too much has changed in the world of swimming since I last posted, so I’m back once again.
Tonight, the latest stop on the Grand Prix circuit came to a close in Indianapolis, while the men’s Pac-10 Championships concluded in Long Beach. There is a saying that “All Great Racers Come to Indy;” while that quote was not entirely true this weekend, America has seen some truly great racers perform this weekend and also in past weekends at conference championships.
When I last blogged, I criticized Michael Phelps for his mediocre performance at the Austin Grand Prix. Now, however, things have changed. Just seven weeks later, Phelps suddenly bounced back, and nothing could be better for the sport. He started things off with a 1:46.27 victory in the 200 free. Phelps immediately proved that no one can count him out of the big showdown in that race this summer. To put that time into perspective, he swam 1:46.47 at the 2007 Missouri Grand Prix; a month and a half later, he went into the history books, posting a 1:43.86 in this event, breaking Ian Thorpe’s vaunted world record of 1:44.06. By this math, he could be on track to swim a 1:43-mid or better in the 200 by the Worlds in Shanghai. He took the 100 fly in 51.75, which he called disappointing because of a terrible finish. In his first mid-season sub-52 100 fly in two years, Phelps showed once again why he has become the dominant 100 flyer in the world. He won the 200 fly in 1:55.34, a respectable time, but it shows that he still has work to do. He did not have his usual cushion of several seconds in that race, where Brazil’s Kaio Almeida finished just a half second behind. But finally, Michael Phelps is on the right track, the track towards more Olympic greatness in London.
In possibly the final session of competing at the IUPUI Natatorium for his entire career, Phelps put on quite a show. His 1:56.88 victory in the 200 IM lopped about five seconds off his year-best from the Austin Grand Prix. He out-split world champ Ryan Lochte on every stroke and swam the fastest in-season time of his entire career. Lochte posted a demoralizing win over Phelps at this summer’s Nationals, but Phelps posted his first head-to-head win over Lochte in the event since the Olympic games. Up next, the 100 free. After winning his eight gold medals in Beijing, Phelps hinted that the 100 free could become his new focus event. After an unsuccessful experiment with a new sprint stroke in 2009, hype regarding Phelps and the 100 free decreased. However, things changed when Phelps led off the 400 free relay at Pan Pacs in 48.13, the then-fastest time in the world. Once again, Phelps has the fastest time in the world, as he clocked 48.89, beating Matt Grevers and Jason Lezak by more than a second. The question comes up again: can Phelps win the 100 free in London? Obviously, scheduling will be an issue, since the event’s semi-final comes just before the 200 fly final and also on the same night as the 4x200 free relay final. Major decisions still to be made obviously.
In recent weeks, we have seen some truly impressive collegiate performances at conference meets. These range from Arianna Vanderpool-Wallace’s U.S. Open records in the 100 free at SECs to Dax Hill’s continued breakout at Big-12s to Kyle Whittaker’s nation-beating IMs at Big-10s as just a freshman. However, the biggest story has been Conor Dwyer’s coming-out party at SECs. The Florida senior set SEC championship records in winning the 500 free (4:11.36) and 400 IM (3:37.75), and these times also stand as the top times in the nation. He opened the meet with a 1:31.73 lead-off leg on the 800 free relay, just one one-hundredth of a second away from Dave Walters’ American record. Due to numerous event conflicts, Dwyer, like Phelps on the Olympic level, has numerous scheduling decisions to make for NCAAs. He also has the potential to throw down a monster 200 IM or 200 breast, although his 1,650 experiment at SECs did not pan out as expected, losing in a blowout to Georgia’s Martin Grodski, while teammate Connor Signorin also got ahead of Dwyer at the finish. Dwyer’s performances at this meet show him to be a bona fide Olympic contender and not just as a relay alternate (as he is on the World Champs team). One of the scariest parts of his SECs performance was He has serious individual potential in the 400 free, and possibly even the 200 free, 200 IM, or 400 IM, and we’ve yet to see how good a 200 breaststroker he could be. World, watch out for Conor Dwyer!
Going into men’s Pac-10s, everyone talked about the showdown between Tom Shields and Austin Staab in the 100 fly. Staab won this event at NCAAs in 2009, posting an American record of 44.18, while Shields won in 2010 in Staab’s absence. The addition to the field of Olympic gold medalist and star sprinter Nathan Adrian showed that it would be truly memorable. It failed to disappoint. Stroke for stroke the entire way, Staab got his hands on the wall first, 44.66 to 44.78. Shields swam his best time, ahead of the 44.91 in which he won NCAAs last year, while Staab broke his 2009 Pac-10 record of 44.72 he set on the way to his 44.18 at NCAAs. With the NCAA Championships looming in three weeks time, the question remains: who will win? And can they get down to Staab’s 44.18 from the days of polyurethane suits? This should be one of the primer races of the meet, and if either man breaks the record, it will be an astounding swim.
Shields, meanwhile, proved over the course of Pac-10s to be much more than just a 100 flyer. On the opening day, he led off Cal’s 800 free relay in 1:32.88. With the swim, he became the first Cal swimmer under 1:33 and broke Matt Biondi’s school record. No one would come close to that time in winning the individual 200 free, as Dimitri Colupaev touched first in 1:34.05. An hour after taking a close second to Staab in the 100 fly, Shields won the 100 back in 45.65. He is by no means a backstroker and has hardly ever swum the event, but he now has the third fastest time in the country. However, he saved his best performance for last. Shields won the 200 fly in 1:40.31, breaking the NCAA record and swimming the third fastest time ever, behind two of Phelps’ performances. To top it all off, Shields spilt a 41.83 on Cal’s winning 400 free relay. Shields won Swimmer of the Meet, but he will have much bigger honors coming his way in the next few years at this rate. Don’t be surprised to hear about Tom Shields on the 2012 Olympic team.
Back at the Indy Grand Prix, the U.S. women proved that they are back to the forefront of world swimming. Missy Franklin continued her rapid ascendance, with a 59.56 100 back and 2:07.96 200 back, leaving her first and second in the world in those two events, respectively. Chloe Sutton, Katie Hoff, and Kate Ziegler clocked what at the time stood as the top three times in the world in the 400 free, all sub-4:07. (Rebecca Adlington and Jazmin Carlin beat those times at British Nationals today.) Ziegler and Sutton went head-to-head in the 800 free, and both posted sub-8:30 swims. Hoff and Franklin crossed paths in the 200 free, where Hoff posted a blazing sub-1:58 swim and Franklin kept rolling, breaking 1:59 for the first time. Dana Vollmer, Jessica Hardy, and Missy Franklin all swam in the low 25s in the 50 free and under 55 in the 100 free, while Vollmer and Elaine Breeden are now ranked first and second in the world in the 100 and 200 fly, respectively.
As for the men, things are finally starting to piece together for what should be a dominant team 17 months down the line. Phelps is finally headed in the right direction, while Ryan Lochte showed that while he is in the midst of the hardest training of his life, he can still knock off something ridiculous, like his 54.08 100 back and 1:57.63 200 back. Tyler Clary and Peter Vanderkaay both showed that they can race tough, as things are coming together for both this season as well. Matt Grevers continues his rebound after missing the Pan Pacs last summer, while new U.S. backstroke champion David Plummer continues to prove his win in Irvine last summer was no fluke. To show off U.S. backstroke depth, Nick Thoman posted a 53.93 100 back as a medley relay lead-off, meaning that the U.S. is now ranked 3rd-7th in the world for 100 back. In the breaststroke events, Mark Gangloff and Eric Shanteau provided comfort for U.S. fans in the 100 and 200 distances, respectively, while Sean Mahoney returned from a doping suspension to show up the big guns. The puzzle is starting to come together to form something magnificent.
With the NCAA Championships coming up just weeks down the line, be sure to play Podium Pursuit (fantasy swimming) to test your swimming knowledge against the biggest swim geeks out there. Finally, I leave a list of my February swimmers of the month. These swimmers all performed excellent in February and are on track for big things down the line.
American - Rebecca Soni (USA) and Conor Dwyer (USA)
Europe - Katinka Hosszu (HUN) and Yannick Agnel (FRA)
Africa - Wendy Trott (RSA) and Ous Mellouli (TUN)
Pac Rim - Belinda Hocking (AUS) and Kosuke Kitajima (JPN)
Tonight, the latest stop on the Grand Prix circuit came to a close in Indianapolis, while the men’s Pac-10 Championships concluded in Long Beach. There is a saying that “All Great Racers Come to Indy;” while that quote was not entirely true this weekend, America has seen some truly great racers perform this weekend and also in past weekends at conference championships.
When I last blogged, I criticized Michael Phelps for his mediocre performance at the Austin Grand Prix. Now, however, things have changed. Just seven weeks later, Phelps suddenly bounced back, and nothing could be better for the sport. He started things off with a 1:46.27 victory in the 200 free. Phelps immediately proved that no one can count him out of the big showdown in that race this summer. To put that time into perspective, he swam 1:46.47 at the 2007 Missouri Grand Prix; a month and a half later, he went into the history books, posting a 1:43.86 in this event, breaking Ian Thorpe’s vaunted world record of 1:44.06. By this math, he could be on track to swim a 1:43-mid or better in the 200 by the Worlds in Shanghai. He took the 100 fly in 51.75, which he called disappointing because of a terrible finish. In his first mid-season sub-52 100 fly in two years, Phelps showed once again why he has become the dominant 100 flyer in the world. He won the 200 fly in 1:55.34, a respectable time, but it shows that he still has work to do. He did not have his usual cushion of several seconds in that race, where Brazil’s Kaio Almeida finished just a half second behind. But finally, Michael Phelps is on the right track, the track towards more Olympic greatness in London.
In possibly the final session of competing at the IUPUI Natatorium for his entire career, Phelps put on quite a show. His 1:56.88 victory in the 200 IM lopped about five seconds off his year-best from the Austin Grand Prix. He out-split world champ Ryan Lochte on every stroke and swam the fastest in-season time of his entire career. Lochte posted a demoralizing win over Phelps at this summer’s Nationals, but Phelps posted his first head-to-head win over Lochte in the event since the Olympic games. Up next, the 100 free. After winning his eight gold medals in Beijing, Phelps hinted that the 100 free could become his new focus event. After an unsuccessful experiment with a new sprint stroke in 2009, hype regarding Phelps and the 100 free decreased. However, things changed when Phelps led off the 400 free relay at Pan Pacs in 48.13, the then-fastest time in the world. Once again, Phelps has the fastest time in the world, as he clocked 48.89, beating Matt Grevers and Jason Lezak by more than a second. The question comes up again: can Phelps win the 100 free in London? Obviously, scheduling will be an issue, since the event’s semi-final comes just before the 200 fly final and also on the same night as the 4x200 free relay final. Major decisions still to be made obviously.
In recent weeks, we have seen some truly impressive collegiate performances at conference meets. These range from Arianna Vanderpool-Wallace’s U.S. Open records in the 100 free at SECs to Dax Hill’s continued breakout at Big-12s to Kyle Whittaker’s nation-beating IMs at Big-10s as just a freshman. However, the biggest story has been Conor Dwyer’s coming-out party at SECs. The Florida senior set SEC championship records in winning the 500 free (4:11.36) and 400 IM (3:37.75), and these times also stand as the top times in the nation. He opened the meet with a 1:31.73 lead-off leg on the 800 free relay, just one one-hundredth of a second away from Dave Walters’ American record. Due to numerous event conflicts, Dwyer, like Phelps on the Olympic level, has numerous scheduling decisions to make for NCAAs. He also has the potential to throw down a monster 200 IM or 200 breast, although his 1,650 experiment at SECs did not pan out as expected, losing in a blowout to Georgia’s Martin Grodski, while teammate Connor Signorin also got ahead of Dwyer at the finish. Dwyer’s performances at this meet show him to be a bona fide Olympic contender and not just as a relay alternate (as he is on the World Champs team). One of the scariest parts of his SECs performance was He has serious individual potential in the 400 free, and possibly even the 200 free, 200 IM, or 400 IM, and we’ve yet to see how good a 200 breaststroker he could be. World, watch out for Conor Dwyer!
Going into men’s Pac-10s, everyone talked about the showdown between Tom Shields and Austin Staab in the 100 fly. Staab won this event at NCAAs in 2009, posting an American record of 44.18, while Shields won in 2010 in Staab’s absence. The addition to the field of Olympic gold medalist and star sprinter Nathan Adrian showed that it would be truly memorable. It failed to disappoint. Stroke for stroke the entire way, Staab got his hands on the wall first, 44.66 to 44.78. Shields swam his best time, ahead of the 44.91 in which he won NCAAs last year, while Staab broke his 2009 Pac-10 record of 44.72 he set on the way to his 44.18 at NCAAs. With the NCAA Championships looming in three weeks time, the question remains: who will win? And can they get down to Staab’s 44.18 from the days of polyurethane suits? This should be one of the primer races of the meet, and if either man breaks the record, it will be an astounding swim.
Shields, meanwhile, proved over the course of Pac-10s to be much more than just a 100 flyer. On the opening day, he led off Cal’s 800 free relay in 1:32.88. With the swim, he became the first Cal swimmer under 1:33 and broke Matt Biondi’s school record. No one would come close to that time in winning the individual 200 free, as Dimitri Colupaev touched first in 1:34.05. An hour after taking a close second to Staab in the 100 fly, Shields won the 100 back in 45.65. He is by no means a backstroker and has hardly ever swum the event, but he now has the third fastest time in the country. However, he saved his best performance for last. Shields won the 200 fly in 1:40.31, breaking the NCAA record and swimming the third fastest time ever, behind two of Phelps’ performances. To top it all off, Shields spilt a 41.83 on Cal’s winning 400 free relay. Shields won Swimmer of the Meet, but he will have much bigger honors coming his way in the next few years at this rate. Don’t be surprised to hear about Tom Shields on the 2012 Olympic team.
Back at the Indy Grand Prix, the U.S. women proved that they are back to the forefront of world swimming. Missy Franklin continued her rapid ascendance, with a 59.56 100 back and 2:07.96 200 back, leaving her first and second in the world in those two events, respectively. Chloe Sutton, Katie Hoff, and Kate Ziegler clocked what at the time stood as the top three times in the world in the 400 free, all sub-4:07. (Rebecca Adlington and Jazmin Carlin beat those times at British Nationals today.) Ziegler and Sutton went head-to-head in the 800 free, and both posted sub-8:30 swims. Hoff and Franklin crossed paths in the 200 free, where Hoff posted a blazing sub-1:58 swim and Franklin kept rolling, breaking 1:59 for the first time. Dana Vollmer, Jessica Hardy, and Missy Franklin all swam in the low 25s in the 50 free and under 55 in the 100 free, while Vollmer and Elaine Breeden are now ranked first and second in the world in the 100 and 200 fly, respectively.
As for the men, things are finally starting to piece together for what should be a dominant team 17 months down the line. Phelps is finally headed in the right direction, while Ryan Lochte showed that while he is in the midst of the hardest training of his life, he can still knock off something ridiculous, like his 54.08 100 back and 1:57.63 200 back. Tyler Clary and Peter Vanderkaay both showed that they can race tough, as things are coming together for both this season as well. Matt Grevers continues his rebound after missing the Pan Pacs last summer, while new U.S. backstroke champion David Plummer continues to prove his win in Irvine last summer was no fluke. To show off U.S. backstroke depth, Nick Thoman posted a 53.93 100 back as a medley relay lead-off, meaning that the U.S. is now ranked 3rd-7th in the world for 100 back. In the breaststroke events, Mark Gangloff and Eric Shanteau provided comfort for U.S. fans in the 100 and 200 distances, respectively, while Sean Mahoney returned from a doping suspension to show up the big guns. The puzzle is starting to come together to form something magnificent.
With the NCAA Championships coming up just weeks down the line, be sure to play Podium Pursuit (fantasy swimming) to test your swimming knowledge against the biggest swim geeks out there. Finally, I leave a list of my February swimmers of the month. These swimmers all performed excellent in February and are on track for big things down the line.
American - Rebecca Soni (USA) and Conor Dwyer (USA)
Europe - Katinka Hosszu (HUN) and Yannick Agnel (FRA)
Africa - Wendy Trott (RSA) and Ous Mellouli (TUN)
Pac Rim - Belinda Hocking (AUS) and Kosuke Kitajima (JPN)
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