Saturday, March 27, 2010

Day 2 at Men's NCAA's

Halfway through the men's NCAA championships, it looks like a two-team race between Texas and California. Cal has dominated the sprints and the relays thus far but big points from the 200 IM and diving put Texas ahead after day 1. After day 2 prelims, the two teams are seeded well ahead of the pack. Based on seeds from prelims, the projected score after all events except the timed final 800 free relay are as follows:
1 - California, 320
2 - Texas, 300
3 - Florida, 233
4 - Arizona, 232
5 - Auburn, 226
6 - Stanford, 198
7 - Michigan, 137

Some preview of tonight's races:

200 Medley Relay: Auburn, the typical sprint power, will have its hands full with a tough team from Cal, which will most likely be without 50 free runner-up Nathan Adrian, as he can only swim four out of the five relays. It will be a tight race between those two teams. Stanford, Arizona, Texas, and Florida will be tight for third.

Original prediction
1 - Auburn
2 - California
3 - Texas

New predictions:
1 - Auburn
2 - California
3 - Texas

400 IM: Shapes up to be a battle between Michigan's Tyler Clary, the defending champ and NCAA record-holder, and Georgia Tech's Gal Nevo, runner-up last year. Both had poor 200 IM swims on Friday night but swam well in the prelims. The biggest challenge to the top two lies in Arizona swimmers Clark Burckle and Jack Brown. 200 IM champion Austin Surhoff of Texas missed finals, finishing tenth.

Original predictions:
1 - Tyler Clary
2 - Gal Nevo
3 - Jack Brown

New predictions:
1 - Tyler Clary
2 - Gal Nevo
3 - Jack Brown

100 Fly: Without defending champ Austin Staab of Stanford, this race is fairly wide open. Cal freshman Tom Shields is the favorite, after a lightning-quick 44.5 relay split last night, while world championship finalist Tyler McGill will be looking to re-bound for Auburn after a very disappointing morning session. Behind them, it's anyone's game.

Original predictions:
1 - Tyler McGill
2 - Tom Shields
3 - Chris Brady

New predictions:
1 - Tom Shields
2 - Tyler McGill
3 - Mark Dylla

200 Free: An extremely tight race between eight of the best middle-distance freestylers in the world, this one will be a doozy. Dave Walters and Ricky Berens both have Olympic and world golds on relays, while Scott Jostes joined them on Texas' winning 800 free relay in 2009. Florida's Shaune Fraser is the defending champion, while his brother Brett is also a fabulous 200 freestyler, and Conor Dwyer won the 500 free last night. Jean Basson took second in the 500, and Virginia's Scot Robison has the top time in the nation at 1:32.45. This one will be tight.

Original predictions:
1 - Shaune Fraser
2 - Ricky Berens
3 - Jean Basson

New predictions:
1 - Shaune Fraser
2 - Ricky Berens
3 - Conor Dwyer

100 Breast: Cal's Damir Dugonjic has dominated this event the past two seasons, and after his performance in the medley relay last night, that should continue. Scott Spann put his name in the mix after an awesome medley relay split last night, while Adam Klein and Marcus Titus, among others, could also contend.

Original predictions:
1 - Damir Dugonjic
2 - Marcus Titus
3 - Adam Klein

New predictions:
1 - Damir Dugonjic
2 - Scott Spann
3 - Marcus Titus

100 Back: After a dominating 44.93 medley relay split, Stanford's Eugene Godsoe is the clear favorite. Behind Godsoe, the minor places are wide open, especially with Auburn's Pascal Wollach missing the A-final.

Original predictions:
1 - Eugene Godsoe
2 - Pascal Wollach
3 - Hill Taylor

New predictions:
1 - Eugene Godsoe
2 - Hill Taylor
3 - Omar Pinzon

800 Free Relay: This shapes up to be a battle between Texas and Florida, both teams that have three swimmers in the 200 free final. The key will be each team's fourth swimmer. Florida has Jeffrey Raymond, who swam 1:35-flat this morning or Sebastien Rosseau, who was 1:34.5 at SEC's. Texas' best bet is probably Peter Jameson, who clocked 1:35.6 this morning.

Original predictions:
1 - Texas
2 - Arizona
3 - Michigan

New predictions:
1 - Florida
2 - Texas
3 - Arizona

Shapes up to be a dogfight between Texas and Cal throughout the night. The only possibility of another team getting back into it is if Florida scores enough points in the 200 free and 100 back and wins the 800 free relay to get momentum going into day 3.

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