After Brent Hayden won the Commonwealth Games in 47.98, the top time in the world, Tom named Hayden the world's best sprinter. At the time, I agreed. He appeared to have the best balance of 50 and 100 free for the year. In a comment, I wrote, "Right now, no one can argue that Hayden is the best sprinter in the world, and he will leave Commonwealth Games the best sprinter in the world as long as he does two things in the 50: 1) breaks 22, and 2) wins a medal. Both seem near assured."
As it would turn out, Hayden did win gold but did not break 22, his winning time 22.01. Thus, the choice for world's best sprinter becomes less clear. To find a clear winner, I decided to add up long course best times this year for 13 of the world's premier sprinters. This is what I found.
1. Nathan Adrian, USA 21.55 + 48.15 = 69.70
2. Brent Hayden, Canada 21.89 + 47.98 = 69.87
3. Cesar Cielo, Brazil 21.55 + 48.48 = 70.03
4. Fabien Gilot, France 21.75 + 48.47 = 70.22
5. Alain Bernard, France 21.99 + 48.32 = 70.31
6. Stefan Nystrand, Sweden 21.69 + 48.82 = 70.51
7. Andrey Grechin, Russia 21.98 + 48.59 = 70.57
8. Eamon Sullivan, Australia 22.09 + 48.52 = 70.61
9. Fred Bousquet, France 21.36 + 49.34 = 70.70
9. Simon Burnett, Great Britain 22.16 + 48.54 = 70.70
11. Jason Lezak, USA 22.27 + 48.47 = 70.74
12. Evgeny Lagunov, Russia 22.54 + 48.23 = 70.77
13. Michael Phelps, USA 23.43 + 48.15 = 71.58
2. Brent Hayden, Canada 21.89 + 47.98 = 69.87
3. Cesar Cielo, Brazil 21.55 + 48.48 = 70.03
4. Fabien Gilot, France 21.75 + 48.47 = 70.22
5. Alain Bernard, France 21.99 + 48.32 = 70.31
6. Stefan Nystrand, Sweden 21.69 + 48.82 = 70.51
7. Andrey Grechin, Russia 21.98 + 48.59 = 70.57
8. Eamon Sullivan, Australia 22.09 + 48.52 = 70.61
9. Fred Bousquet, France 21.36 + 49.34 = 70.70
9. Simon Burnett, Great Britain 22.16 + 48.54 = 70.70
11. Jason Lezak, USA 22.27 + 48.47 = 70.74
12. Evgeny Lagunov, Russia 22.54 + 48.23 = 70.77
13. Michael Phelps, USA 23.43 + 48.15 = 71.58
If I use Tom's criteria that the best sprinter in the world must have won a major title in either the 50 or 100 free this year, the list narrows itself out.
1. Nathan Adrian, USA 21.55 + 48.15 = 69.70
2. Brent Hayden, Canada 21.89 + 47.98 = 69.87
2. Brent Hayden, Canada 21.89 + 47.98 = 69.87
3. Alain Bernard, France 21.99 + 48.32 = 70.31
4. Fred Bousquet, France 21.36 + 49.34 = 70.70
It is a tight call, but to me the choice is clear. Based on his incredible world ranking and regional superiority in both the 50 and 100 free, Nathan Adrian remains the best sprinter in the world for 2010.
Top stuff. Strong cases can be made for both Adrian and Hayden at this point.
ReplyDeleteBring on Shangai 2011 (I'd still pick Cesar Cielo to win the 100m there).
I think Cesar will take the 50, but the 100 will be tight between the same three as Pan Pacs, and I have trouble believing Bernard won't be close as well. Any one of those four winning should not be a surprise at all.
ReplyDeleteI say I think Cesar wins the 50, because of what's happened every time he's raced Bousquet since Beijing. Bousquet hasn't performed when racing Cielo - his best race was Europeans, where his competition was very limited. I'll be rooting for Fred (and Adrian of course), but we'll see how it all plays out.
We will see a lot of change til the worldchamps.
ReplyDeleteI believe Adrian will improve, Bousquet will improve and Cielo will improve(a lot) his best textile times.
I will never understimate Cielo from the top spot just because a bad PanPacs and his training problems in Auburn.
Now 48 mark went down again, i have no doubt we will see AT LEAST four 47´s next year.
My Prediction:
Adrian,Hayden,Cielo and Phelps(opening relay).
David --
ReplyDeleteI think if you're going to use the combined time methodology you have to weight the 50 more, i.e., double the time of the 50 and then add that to the 100 time. (A two tenths of a second margin is pretty much twice as significant in the 50 as it is in the 100.)
Good point John. Without doing any new math but with common sense, Adrian would win by more if I double the 50 times. Bousquet would be closer but probably not beating Hayden, or certainly not Adrian.
ReplyDeletegood job! you actually accomplished something in life. haha(;
ReplyDeleteum how long should a male sprinter run daily? lol.
ReplyDeleteFirst Anonymous poster: referring to me? Do you personally know me?
ReplyDelete