2011 World Championships Predictions

I hope all of you had a great New Year! As we enter 2011, I have already made some early predictions for this summer's World Championships in Shanghai. As evidenced by my recent predicting contest for World Short Course Champs, it is hard to predict these meets correctly; off all the contestants, no one picked half of the correct winners! Almost seven months out, this task is even more difficult, but I am making an attempt anyway.

First, some analysis of what I have predicted. I predict Team USA to walk away with 36 medals, 14 of them gold. This is an improvement over the 10 golds they won in Rome and the 12 golds form Beijing but still far behind their performance at the 2007 Worlds in Melbourne, where American swimmers won half of the events - 20 golds! The Americans were so dominant just four years ago, that they should have won even more; favorite Brendan Hansen withdrew from the 200 breast due to illness, and the men's medley relay was disqualified, losing a chance for a runaway win.

Meanwhile, I expect China to have a successful meet in their home country. I put them down for 13 medals, 7 of which are gold. I picked two 1-2 finishes for China, in the women's 50 back (Zhao Jing and Gao Chang) and men's 800 free (Sun Yang and Zhang Lin). When in doubt, I took China ahead, due to their recent successes at the World Short Course Championships and also at the Asian Games. Home-country advantage proved significant at the Beijing Olympics, and I suspect it will again.

I picked the Americans to win five relays, all except the women's 4x100 free relay. It is a tough call between China and the USA in the other two women's relays, especially the 4x200 free, but I took the USA in both. The Michael Phelps-Ryan Lochte rivalry will continue; the two will be 1-2 in both the 200 free and 200 IM - Phelps winning the 200 free and Lochte the 200 IM. Lochte will lead the other American 1-2 with Tyler Clary in the 400 IM. I predict the only other 1-2 finish for one country in the meet will be Sweden (Therese Alshammar and Sarah Sjostrom) in the women's 50 fly.

The Netherlands should win the women's 4x100 free relay, which would make them the only country besides the U.S. and China to win more than two gold medals - in fact, three. I pick Italy, Sweden, Hungary, France, Brazil, and Hungary to all win double gold, with Great Britain, Denmark, Norway, and Serbia rounding out the gold medal winners.

Surprisingly, I could not find an event to pick Australia for a gold medal. I still put them down for 13 medals - silver and bronze. Again, I tended to pick China when in doubt, so they certainly still could win a race, but as of right now, I don't see it. That said, few saw Brenton Rickard winning the men's 100 breast in Rome.

Women’s Events:

50 Free
1. Ranomi Kromowidjojo, Netherlands
2. Britta Steffen, Germany
3. Therese Alshammar, Sweden

100 Free
1. Ranomi Kromowidjojo, Netherlands
2. Fran Halsall, Great Britain
3. Natalie Coughlin, USA

200 Free
1. Federica Pellegrini, Italy
2. Allison Schmitt, USA
3. Dana Vollmer, USA

400 Free
1. Federica Pellegrini, Italy
2. Katie Hoff, USA
3. Rebecca Adlington, Great Britain

800 Free
1. Rebecca Adlington, Great Britain
2. Kate Ziegler, USA
3. Lotte Friis, Denmark

1,500 Free
1. Lotte Friis, Denmark
2. Melissa Gorman, Australia
3. Kate Ziegler, USA

50 Back
1. Zhao Jing, China
2. Gao Chang, China
3. Aleksandra Herasimenia, Belarus

100 Back
1. Zhao Jing, China
2. Emily Seebohm, Australia
3. Natalie Coughlin, USA

200 Back
1. Zhao Jing, China
2. Elizabeth Simmonds, Great Britain
3. Elizabeth Beisel, USA

50 Breast
1. Rebecca Soni, USA
2. Yulia Efimova, Russia
3. Leiston Pickett, Australia

100 Breast
1. Rebecca Soni, USA
2. Leisel Jones, Australia
3. Yulia Efimova, Russia

200 Breast
1. Rebecca Soni, USA
2. Leisel Jones, Australia
3. Annamay Pierse, Canada

50 Fly
1. Therese Alshammar, Sweden
2. Sarah Sjostrom, Sweden
3. Yolane Kukla, Australia

100 Fly
1. Sarah Sjostrom, Sweden
2. Dana Vollmer, USA
3. Fran Halsall, Great Britain

200 Fly
1. Jiao Liuyang, China
2. Katinka Hosszu, Hungary
3. Jessicah Schipper, Australia

200 IM
1. Yi Shiwen, China
2. Stephanie Rice, Australia
3. Ariana Kukors, USA

400 IM
1. Katinka Hosszu, Hungary
2. Hannah Miley, Great Britain
3. Elizabeth Beisel, USA

4x100 Free Relay
1. Netherlands
2. United States
3. Australia

4x200 Free Relay
1. United States
2. China
3. Hungary

4x100 Medley Relay
1. United States
2. China
3. Australia















Men’s Events:

50 Free
1. Cesar Cielo, Brazil
2. Fred Bousquet, France
3. Nathan Adrian, USA

100 Free
1. Nathan Adrian, USA
2. Cesar Cielo, Brazil
3. Brent Hayden, Canada

200 Free
1. Michael Phelps, USA
2. Ryan Lochte, USA
3. Tae Hwan Park, Korea

400 Free
1. Tae Hwan Park, Korea
2. Sun Yang, China
3. Zhang Lin, China

800 Free
1. Sun Yang, China
2. Zhang Lin, China
3. Ous Mellouli, Tunisia

1,500 Free
1. Sun Yang, China
2. Ous Mellouli, Tunisia
3. Ryan Cochrane, Canada

50 Back
1. Camille Lacourt, France
2. Liam Tancock, Great Britain
3. Junya Koga, Japan

100 Back
1. Camille Lacourt, France
2. Aaron Peirsol, USA
3. David Plummer, USA

200 Back
1. Ryan Lochte, USA
2. Ryosuke Irie, Japan
3. Tyler Clary, USA

50 Breast
1. Felipe Silva, Brazil
2. Cameron van der Burgh, South Africa
3. Fabio Scozolli, Italy

100 Breast
1. Alexander Dale Oen, Norway
2. Kosuke Kitajima, Japan
3. Cameron van der Burgh, South Africa

200 Breast
1. Daniel Gyurta, Hungary
2. Kosuke Kitajima, Japan
3. Eric Shanteau, USA

50 Fly
1. Milorad Cavic, Serbia
2. Geoff Huegill, Australia
3. Cesar Cielo, Brazil

100 Fly
1. Michael Phelps, USA
2. Milorad Cavic, Serbia
3. Geoff Huegill, Australia

200 Fly
1. Michael Phelps, USA
2. Takeshi Matsuda, Japan
3. Tyler Clary, USA

200 IM
1. Ryan Lochte, USA
2. Michael Phelps, USA
3. Markus Rogan, Austria

400 IM
1. Ryan Lochte, USA
2. Tyler Clary, USA
3. Laszlo Cseh, Hungary

4x100 Free Relay
1. United States
2. France
3. Russia

4x200 Free Relay
1. United States
2. Russia
3. France

4x100 Medley Relay
1. United States
2. France
3. Australia