U.S. Olympic Trials: Day Six Finals

When I began to make plans for my trip to Omaha for Trials, I had one race underlined as can't-miss: the men's 200 IM. I knew we'd see something epic. While the time tonight did not really impress me, the head-to-head performance lit up the arena like nothing I've seen the past 48 hours. Nothing could separate the two men for nearly one minute, 55 seconds, and Michael Phelps got his hand on the wall nine one-hundredths before Ryan Lochte. Nobody sat down the entire race. And perhaps we saw history, the last 200 IM ever between the two on American soil.

Phelps and Lochte. Lochte and Phelps. Wow.

Like I said yesterday, if you are reading, you probably know what happened at Trials tonight. We saw Rebecca Soni reestablish her 200 breast dominance while Micah Lawrence showed that she could make a medal run at the Olympics. Soni looked like she held back the first half of the race, as did Lochte in the 200 back, who stormed home to pass Tyler Clary for the win. And then in the men's 100 free, Jessica Hardy took a surprising win, and Lia Neal, Amanda Weir, and Natalie Coughlin all etched their names on the team for the first time.

Serious credit to both Hardy and Coughlin tonight. Hardy controlled her emotions headed into the 100 final after a disappointment in the 100 breast following four years of pain after a more-than-rocky 2008 experience. I stood up to clap when she spoke to the crowd following her medal ceremony; she deserves some major recognition for what she pulled off tonight. Coughlin, meanwhile, watched teens dethrone her in her signature event, but she went out and did just what she needed to do to secure a relay spot at the Olympics. Props to a true champion for digging deep for that one.

Anthony Ervin remains a hot name on deck after a blazing 21.74 semi-final swim. That time knocked off a 21.80 from Trials 12 years ago as Ervin's lifetime best. Nathan Adrian, Josh Schneider, and Jimmy Feigen also broke 22 in the semi-final, though, and none of the four are a lock for the top-two. We are talking about the 50 free, a scramble of a race where you only win if you come through in the clutch and make no mistakes. Hard combination. Hopefully, at least one can clock a time in the sub-21.7 range in tomorrow's final, a grey area only Cesar Cielo has gotten into this year.

Almost nobody picks a swimmer besides Phelps and Tyler McGill to make the Olympic team in the 100 fly. Indeed, the two have shown why they are favorites so far, leading the field in both prelims and semis. But I wouldn't lock it up quite yet. Tom Shields has finally broken out long course, getting into the 51-range tonight, and Davis Tarwater will put everything he has into this race, the final one of his career if he does not make the Olympic team. Tim Phillips has the third-best lifetime best in the field, and he'll swim out of lane two. Oh, and what can a very fresh Ryan Lochte do? After pulling off a truly sick triple tonight, Lochte has one swim all day tomorrow, and he has some clutch powers.

Personally, some of my favorite moments tonight came out of the pool. Before the meet, I watched Katie Hoff sign autographs for jumbles of fans. It takes some serious guts to come out and be so thoughtful to the fans after the rough week she's endured. Meanwhile, I got my first up-close look at the greatest swimmer of all-time tonight. Phelps walked into the CenturyLink Center on the Skybridge from the Hilton across the street surrounded by National guard members and encased in a hoodie. Hours later, after 14,000 fans bid him a happy birthday, I watched Phelps sprint across the pool deck to find his mom and sisters for a famous Phelps family embrace in a TV moment come to life.

Katie Hoff's meet is over, but she won't let her fans down.

Michael Phelps arrives for battle.

Phelps leaves the arena after a rousing rendition of "Happy Birthday" and a Phelps family birthday hug.

U.S. Olympic Trials: Day Six Prelims

The arrival of the weekend brought the biggest crowd we've seen thus far in the morning. The usual suspects of Phelps, Lochte, Franklin, and Janet Evans brought out some serious excitement for the crowd. Timewise, one swim stood out: Anthony Ervin's 50 free. Ervin beat Nathan Adrian in the last heat of the 50 with a time of 21.83. Only once has Ervin beat that time, when he clocked 21.80 at the 2000 Olympic Trials in route to tying for the gold medal at the Olympics. The deck has exploded with buzz over the swim, most in consensus before the session that Ervin would not swim a 21.8. Adrian remains the favorite after coasting into the wall with the number two time, but Anthony Ervin has returned.

The crowd cheered Janet Evans despite a lackluster swim in the women's 800 before Katie Ledecky, Gillian Ryan, Chloe Sutton, and Kate Ziegler put up strong swims in the circle-seeded heats. Ziegler broke out this morning, with her 8:27.61 almost putting her in the world top ten. Ziegler disappointed in the 400 free earlier in the week, but she looked strong yet controlled in the heats today. Shout-out too to Katie Hoff for swimming the 800 despite a battle with food poisoning earlier on. She showed some heart in stepping up and trying to hang with the big guns.

Everyone knew they'd see Michael Phelps in the 100 fly today, but Ryan Lochte surprised most of us when he did not scratch the event. Lochte ended up putting up his best time in the event, a 52.21 to take second in the heat to Tyler McGill, the consensus choice for the second spot. Tom Shields also looked good in the heat before, dropping his lifetime best down from a 51.62 to 52.18 to take a close second in his heat to Tim Phillips. Shields has clearly improved significantly from last summer, when he trailed Phillips by almost a second in taking the silver at the World University Games.

The crowd liked seeing the man stretching on the lane four block.

Then in the final heat, Phelps showed his colors. Trailing Davis Tarwater at the turn, 24.40 to 24.70, Phelps blew up off the wall and brought the crowd to their feet as he reached for the wall in 51.80 to take the top time over McGill. On the women's side, only Missy Franklin can make the crowd wake up and go crazy, and she did soon after, taking the top seed in the 200 back. Elizabeth Beisel, Elizabeth Pelton, and Missy Franklin all won their heats, trading the top time as the heats went on. All three have already jumped into the world top-15. Franklin holds the American record and title of favorite, but Pelton and Beisel both have big experience and could have a dogfight to the wall. Beisel already won the 400 IM, but Pelton has not yet made this Olympic team.

Elizabeth Pelton all by herself as she cruises to a 200 back heat win.

Before I share my updated predictions for tonight's finals, I wanted to recap some quick points from my blog last night. Micah Lawrence has proved to be a level ahead of the field in the 200 breast so far, but no one will catch Rebecca Soni, who could challenge the world record if she goes out strong and maintains her back half from last night. Still, don't count out Amanda Beard though, as she could become a five-time Olympian tonight.No one doubts Lochte and Tyler Clary as the big favorites in the 200 back, but young gun Ryan Murphy keeps improving like crazy. Conor Dwyer, meanwhile, will try to stake his claim as one of the best in the world in the 200 IM, but Phelps and Lochte stand in his way. World record could be in trouble as the two titans go head-to-head once again. Finally, expect a tight race to the wall in the women's 100 free, and any of the eight could potentially make the relay. That includes Natalie Coughlin, in her last shot to get on a third Olympic team.

Women's 200 Breast

1. Rebecca Soni

2. Micah Lawrence

Men's 200 Back
1. Ryan Lochte
2. Tyler Clary

Women's 100 Free
1. Dana Vollmer
2. Missy Franklin
3. Allison Schmitt
4. Amanda Weir
5. Natalie Coughlin
6. Jessica Hardy

Men's 200 IM
1. Michael Phelps
2. Ryan Lochte

U.S. Olympic Trials: Day Five Finals

If you're reading this blog, I'll assume you saw what I saw at tonight's finals in Omaha: some really awesome racing and a big upset in the men's 200 breast (which I foreshadowed). I think the winners of each event shape up as medal contenders, though probably not the favorites right now. The American 400 free relay, meanwhile, looks in trouble with a relatively-slow final tonight. Don't get me wrong, I think Nathan Adrian will drop time from that swim – as he did in his progression from Nationals to Pan Pacs two years ago – and I think we will see some massive relay performances. Australia, though, has easily claimed the favorite title headed into the Olympics.

More on that relay battle coming up. Let me share some of my thoughts from the buzzing CenturyLink Center tonight. When we started things off in the men's 200 breast, I continually shared my belief that Eric Shanteau would not only make the team, but he would take home the win. Well, with Scott Weltz and Clark Burckle coming through, Shanteau found himself shockingly locked out in a surprisingly-slow time. You could see Shanteau's own shock. He officially received his Olympic team medal tonight for his second-place finish in the 100 breast, and he sounded dejected in a deck interview with Summer Sanders, a far cry from the elation he showed after the 100.

Up next, we saw semi-finals of the women's 100 free and men's 200 back. The entire pool deck felt the pressure of Natalie Coughlin finishing sixth in her semi-final and realizing how close she came to her Olympic dream coming to a crashing halt. She faces a really deep field tomorrow, but she has the talent and mental fortitude to step up and seize her final opportunity. You don't give a swimmer like Coughlin that many chances to make an Olympic team without her capitalizing on one. Expect her to finish in the top six.

Next up, Tyler Clary and Ryan Lochte picked up middle lanes for tomorrow's 200 back final, and they took incredibly different paths to those lanes. Clary consistently outsplit his opponents in route to lane five tomorrow. Clary picked up some major confidence with a second place-finish in the 200 fly last night, and he showed off that confidence as he accepted his official invitation to the Olympics, pumping his fists to the crowd, in sharp contrast to, for example, Shanteau. Lochte, meanwhile, played cool through the first 150 and turned more than a second behind Clary's pace at the 150. The entire arena, though, knew what came next. Lochte zoomed off his final turn with his patented underwater kicks, and the arena burst to life. Lochte will swim the final from lane four.

We didn't see any incredibly fast times or statements sent in the next two finals, but we sure saw exciting races. Everyone in the arena knew Cammile Adams had set herself up for a monster race, and she battled down the stretch to take down Kathleen Hersey. Hersey, meanwhile, showed some grit to hang on for second after what had been a rough week with a third place-finish in the 100 fly and missing the final of the 200 free.

As with Adams, everyone knew Nathan Adrian would win the 100 free, but beyond that, no one knew who would take the spots. In a big surprise, Cullen Jones put up his lifetime best in a textile suit to get second in 48.46 and grab an individual spot. Much to the delight of the crowd, Jason Lezak did rocket to get into sixth place, and he got some nice recognition for that. America loves its Olympic hero four years down the line from one of the biggest swims in American Olympic history. However, some have raised question if Lezak actually gets the spot with Michael Phelps a near lock to swim the relay and another possibility in Ryan Lochte. I have heard nothing official, though.

The last two semi-finals of the night showcased veterans and newcomers trying to make their mark. In the women's 200 breast, Rebecca Soni posted one of her best back-halves in years on her way to a 2:21.45 swim, the top time in the world this year. Looming, though, is Micah Lawrence, who posted a 2:24.12 tonight to set herself up as a favorite to advance to London behind Soni. Soni won't lose tomorrow night, and she could finally threaten the world record and the 2:20 mark. Lawrence, meanwhile, keeps chugging along in hopes of making it to her first Olympics.

Phelps and Lochte went at it again in the 200 IM semi-finals. In a semi-final – i.e., not a final – 14,000 stood up and cheered for the two greatest in the world. Lochte won in 1:55.51 after completely turning off the gas once again the last 15 meters, while Phelps came in at 1:56.32. Did they need to swim that fast? No. But they raced each other tonight, and they will battle again tomorrow from lanes four and five. No one else made the final out of the first semi-final heat, but Conor Dwyer established himself as the clear choice for third with a 1:58.32 swim to win the second semi-final. Dwyer will swim fast in the final, and he could get down into the 1:57-mid range or even faster. I wouldn't rule out the possibility of him making the top-five in the world. But in the end, that won't matter. Dwyer will remain number three domestically.

Tomorrow's prelims should be interesting with the fast-twitches ruling the pool in the men's 50 free and 100 fly, while we will get a good look at the competitive field taking shape in the women's 200 back, and one final look at some of America's stars in the women's 800 free. Chloe Sutton already made the team in the 400 free, but Kate Ziegler and Katie Ledecky only have one shot, and I look forward to watching them for the first time. Also, Katie Hoff will swim the 800 after a very disappointing meet in which sickness derailed her hopes in the 200 and 400. Hoff apparently feels much better, and I look forward to watching her swim for the first time tomorrow.

Elliott Keefer finished fifth in the 200 breast tonight after spending a year training with David Marsh at SwimMAC.

Nathan Adrian enters the CenturyLink Center in style.

Teresa Crippen warms up before a fourth-place finish in the 200 fly.

U.S. Olympic Trials: Day Five Prelims

Yeah, the CenturyLink Center looks cool for those of you watching at home on the USA Swimming webcast and on NBC. Well, you haven't seen anything. This place is phenomenal! On the inside of the arena, it feels like a pumped-up and crowded swim meet. Outside of the pool area, you realize that we are inside a multi-purpose arena. Junk food lines the walls as you walk between the different sessions. I haven't gotten a chance to explore much yet, but I will. I've run into a few big-name athletes and coaches, which of course is always a thrill for me. Generally, restrictions seemed fairly relaxed for prelims, but I expect that to change for finals. I've been here two hours now, and I've already heard about what I'm in store for tonight. I cannot wait.

We started things off with the women's 100 free, where Dana Vollmer led the way ahead of Jessica Hardy and Allison Schmitt. Margo Geer provided some thrills for the crowd when she went out under American record pace and ended up fourth. We saw another rough morning, though, from Natalie Coughlin. The 11-time Olympic medalist faded down the stretch of her heat to finish third in 54.99 and ninth overall. Her goal of a fourth Olympics remains alive, but she must step up in the finals to ensure a place in the final. I expect a 54.2 or so to be more than enough to earn a spot in London, and under normal conditions, I would believe Coughlin is more than capable. This meet, though, she has struggled.

Tyler Clary led qualifiers headed into the last heat of the men's 200 back, but much to the delight of the crowd, Ryan Lochte did what he does best and exploded off the last wall to take the top seed. Lochte and Clary remain the clear favorites, especially after Matt Grevers decided to scratch tonight's semi-final to focus on the men's 100 free. Lochte, Clary, and Ryan Murphy all looked easy and relaxed for the majority of their swims, so exppect them to kick it up a notch tonight.

Amanda Beard got the crowd going in the women's 200 breast when she won the second-to-last heat, but her 2:27.07 fell well short of the 2:24.95 that Micah Lawrence had established in the previous heat. Still, Beard had little head-to-head competition in her own heat, and I won't count her out until the final. After all these years, Amanda Beard is a racer, and she gets the crowd going hard. One heat later, Rebecca Soni came out and blitzed everyone else with a 2:23.11. She really turned on the gas the last 15 meters, again, much to the delight of the crowd. No one will beat her here. In the 100, she is good; in the 200, she is unstoppable.

Soni swimming away from the field in the 200 breast

Every time Michael Phelps and Ryan Lochte are in the same event, they find a way to swim next to each other. So nothing's new in the 200 IM, where Phelps and Lochte grabbed the second and fourth seeds, respectively. Just like we saw in the 200 free semi-final, I expect a cat-and-mouse race in which neither gets more than a few millimeters in front or behind the other. Conor Dwyer led the way in 1:59.11, and he should be able to firmly establish himself as top-five swimmer in the world in the event. Austin Surhoff also broke 2:00, and Peter Vanderkaay surprised the crowd when he pushed Lochte in their heat, taking the lead at the 150 before Lochte got his hand on the wall in front of his training partner by less than a tenth of a second. Interesting to see if Vanderkaay decides to swim this event tonight with the 1500 free coming up on Sunday.

Lochte and Vanderkaay Head-to-Head in the 200 IM

Much of the crowd emptied after Lochte finished his heat, but those that stayed lit up the arena during a swim-off for first alternate in the women's 200 breast. Allie Skekely led the whole way and held off a furious charge from Gisselle Kohoyda on the last lap. Skekely, swimming in the old FSII recordbreaker, won in 2:30.03, faster than her 2:30.28 from the prelims, while Kohoyda came in at 2:30.72. Skekely then signed autographs afterwards to the delight of those in the prime seats behind the blocks. What a way to end the morning session!

Allie Skekely Signing Autographs After Winning the Big Swim-Off

I just wrote my prelims blog hours ago, and nothing has changed regarding my thoughts for tonight's swims. Hard to figure out who WON'T be among the top-six in the 100 free; those relay events are always a toss up, and I expect the same tonight. Here we go:

Men's 200 Breast
1. Eric Shanteau
2. Brendan Hansen

Women's 200 Fly
1. Cammile Adams
2. Kathleen Hersey

Men's 100 Free
1. Nathan Adrian
2. Matt Grevers
3. Jimmy Feigen
4. Garrett Weber-Gale
5. Ricky Berens
6. Jason Lezak

Spotted: Dara Torres

U.S. Olympic Trials: Day Four Finals

Right now, I'm coming to you from 34,000 feet southwest of St. Louis, Missouri. Yep, that's right; I am on my way to Omaha and the fifth day of the Olympic Trials! But first, how about some thoughts about day four. Honestly, the finishes we saw were quite predictable. Allison Schmitt is one of the favorites for gold in the women's 200 free after becoming the second-fastest performer all-time in event last night. While Missy Franklin fared far worse timewise than most expected, she still got herself another individual swim, and she has tons of room for improvement as she chases a medal in London.

The favorite American women's 800 free relay remains a slight Olympic favorite, but they lost their tight grip on the title over the last few days. Schmitt's incredible improvement and Franklin's clutch relay potential keep the Americans up front, while no one can doubt that Dana Vollmer will come through when she needs to in London. The problem for the Americans comes on the fourth leg. Without Dagny Knutson and Katie Hoff, Lauren Perdue, Shannon Vreeland, and Alyssa Anderson all need to provide some needed improvement if the Americans want to win gold. Australia looms with the likes of Kylie Palmer, Bronte Barratt, and Stephanie Rice leading the way, and 1:57s from down under fill the world rankings. China, meanwhile, always comes to swim in the 800 relay. Definitely worth keeping an eye in the rearview mirror for the American women.

I predicted an ugly win for Michael Phelps in the 200 fly last night; he won, but I'm not sure I'd call 1:53.65 "ugly." No one else has ever beaten that time in a textile suit. After the race, Phelps predicted that the time would not win him Olympic gold, but he might not be correct. Takeshi Matsuda and the rest of the world keep getting stuck on the 1:54-low mark. Phelps owns the 200 fly, and he will enter the Olympic pool as the big favorite for a third straight gold. Tyler Clary, meanwhile, showed some serious heart in running down Bobby Bollier for the second spot on the team. After the disappointment of a third-place finish in the 400 IM, an event in which he had won two World championship silver medals, you can't help but feel happy for the new Olympian.

The 200 IM panned out about how I expected in terms of strategy. Elizabeth Pelton took it out hard – too hard, it would turn out – and ended up succumbing to the emotionally-driven charge of world record-holder Ariana Kukors. Caitlin Leverenz, meanwhile, locked up a spot on the team, but she has to be disappointed in her time. She swam a 2:09.39 at last year's Winter Nationals, almost a second faster than her 2:10.22 last night, and she had also been under 2:10 earlier this year. Kukors also had a faster time to her credit, and she won bronze at the Worlds last year in 2:09.12. Pelton, even, swam a 2:10.02 last December. While we can't be impressed with the times, fans of USA Swimming know there is tremendous room for improvement, and I would not be surprised in the least to see one of the two on the medal stand.

In semi-final action, Nathan Adrian claimed the favorite title for the 100 free, and just as was the case for three years at NCAAs, Jimmy Feigen will be hot on his heels. I do worry, though, about the 400 free relay. Australia now has the favorite title locked up headed into London, and the French always pose a threat, and Russia is a wildcard. The field contains plenty of depth, but we haven't seen the 47s required to make a big impact internationally. Adrian has that potential, no question, and expect to see his first sub-48 clocking in the final. Garrett Weber-Gale, the Trials winner four years ago, put up a monster 47.3 relay split in Shanghai, but he has not indicated yet that he can swim that fast here in Omaha.

Matt Grevers intended to scratch the final to focus on the 200 back, but he changed his mind last-minute. Grevers must think he can put down a big performance, and we should expect that after his game-changing 52.08 in the 100 back. Ryan Lochte, meanwhile, scratched the final, so we will have to wait and see if he ends up on the 400 free relay come London. In his stead, 36 year old Jason Lezak gets one last shot at Olympic glory. Lezak, out in lane eight, will try to get on his fourth Olympic team tonight and contribute more clutch relay swims for the U.S. Like I said yesterday, past beneficiaries of Lochte scratches (Adrian and Grevers) have all gone on to make impacts in the final, so we will see what happens this evening.

Cammile Adams has rolled through qualifying of the 200 fly so far to set herself up as a slight favorite headed into the final. Already ranked sixth in the world with a 2:06.76 from back in January, Adams could make her first Olympic team tonight. Don' t count out my pick for the win, Kathleen Hersey, who looks to refocus and make her second Olympic team tonight. Hersey has consistently been in the mix in this event domestically over the past five years, and I expect nothing different tonight. I expect that the battle will come from the center four or five lanes, with Pan Pac silver medalist Teresa Crippen and 2007 World silver medalist Kim Vandenberg both with realistic shots at London, while Kelsey Floyd has the spoiler role from out in lane two.

Also tonight we have the final of the men's 200 breast, and I expect the three men that dominated the second semi-final last night to do the same. Clark Burckle is the top qualifier, followed by Eric Shanteau and Brendan Hansen. On the other side of Hansen, though, will be Elliott Keefer, a U.S. World Championship representative in the event, and Scott Weltz could provide an upset from lane six. The big three, though, are the class of the field, and I expect Hansen to take the race out hard, and while Shanteau might catch him on the back end, Hansen has his 200 confidence back to take on anyone in the world. Look for a 2:08 out of Shanteau tonight, with Hansen not far behind.

Almost to Omaha, and I should make it in time to watch some of this morning's prelims session. Look for Ryan Lochte's big double with the 200 back and 200 IM and the return of Rebecca Soni and Natalie Coughlin, both coming off disappointing swims on Wednesday night. Look for some features coming up on the Swimming World website and another blog right here sometime this afternoon.

U.S. Olympic Trials: Day Four Prelims

With another morning session in the books in Omaha, the Trials are almost to the halfway point. Most of the major contenders got into the semi-finals of the men's 100 free, women's 200 fly, and men's 200 breast without any real statements made. Sure, Clark Burckle and Scott Weltz must be happy with 2:10s in the 200 breast, and Kim Vandenberg and Cammile Adams both look great with 2:08s in the 200 fly, but we won't really know anything about what is to come at least until after tonight's semi-finals.

The glamor event of Trials has begun, and it is the men's 100 free. Notably absent, though, is the greatest of all time in Michael Phelps, who remains focused on his 200 fly tonight. Ryan Lochte, though, did swim prelims and will compete again in the semi-finals tonight. I, obviously, have expectations of Americans getting into the 47 range over the next two days in hopes of putting up a challenge to the Australian favorites in the 400 free relay. Lochte and Phelps will both be big pieces of that puzzle. Phelps has earned his spot on the relay with years upon years of impressive leadoffs, but Lochte did not make that final foursome last summer in Shanghai after two years on the squad.

I view Lochte as one of the nation's top-four 100 freestylers, pending what we see in the final. However, if he makes the final, he would have to swim that along with the semi-finals of both the 200 back and 200 IM on Friday. Sounds like a nasty triple. Tonight, then, look for an impressive swim out of Ryan Lochte. There remains a good chance that he will pull out if he makes the final eight, so he needs to make his mark tonight. And if Lochte does pull out, watch for whoever finishes ninth and ends up taking his place. At the 2008 Trials, Nathan Adrian tied for ninth before winning a swim-off with Alex Righi to make the final, and he ended up finishing fourth from lane eight. A year later at World Championship Trials, Matt Grevers earned the lucky spot that Lochte voided and ended up swimming a key leg on the winning 400 free relay two weeks later in Rome.

The women's 200 fly remains one of the weaker events for the U.S. and also one of the most wide open. One finals spot probably opened up this morning when Elaine Breeden missed out on the semi-finals, ending up a very disappointing 17th. 2007 World silver medalist Vandenberg leads the way, but she'll have veteran threats in Kathleen Hersey and Teresa Crippen on her tail, along with NCAA runner-up Adams. But the 200 fly offers a big opening for some young talent to really jump into the mix and make a statement. Becca Mann has already done just that in making finals in both the 400 IM and 400 free. Mann finished seventh in prelims today, right in front of fellow teens Courtney Weaver and Megan Kingsley.

Kingsley, who led the way headed into the circle-seeded heats this morning, represents the Mount Pleasant Swim Club from right here in the Charleston area. Indeed, the top story on our NBC affiliate's website read "Swimmer from Mount Pleasant advances in U.S. Olympic Trials." Kingsley's swim galvanizes the local community and creates local excitement regarding the meet. Swimming only gets this kind of attention once every four years, so to have a local swimmer from a swimming-deprived state make it into a semi-final sure creates some buzz.  But for right now, go Megan!

We've got three finals tonight, two women's to go along with a race for second in the men's 200 fly.  Michael Phelps isn't peaked here, but like I said last night, he will pull this one out in a 1:54-low. Bobby Bollier looked great in the semi-final last night, and Tyler Clary is always a contender, but I'll stick with Davis Tarwater to finish second. After another killer seventh-place finish in the 200 free, Tarwater wants another shot at the Olympics after finishing third in the 200 fly four years ago.

On the women's side, Missy Franklin and Allison Schmitt will battle in the women's 200 free. I expect both to be in the 1:54-range and under Schmitt's American record of 1:54.96. Schmitt wins here, but all bets are off when London comes around. Dana Vollmer is the best of the rest, and hopefully the others will turn on the jets to show off a good contingent for the American 800 free relay come London. Finally, we've got world record-holder Ariana Kukors facing off with Elizabeth Pelton, Caitlin Leverenz, and Elizabeth Beisel in the 200 IM. I've seen Leverenz just dominate the race so far at Trials, and I think she'll come out on top. Expect a really tight, strategic race, and I'd like to see more than one time in the 2:09, or even 2:08 range.

Updated Predictions:

Women's 200 Free:

1. Allison Schmitt

2. Missy Franklin

3. Dana Vollmer

4. Megan Romano

5. Shannon Vreeland

6. Lauren Perdue

Men's 200 Fly:

1. Michael Phelps

2. Davis Tarwater

Women's 200 IM:

1. Caitlin Leverenz

2. Ariana Kukors

This prelims blog will be my only post today. I am swimming tonight at a summer league meet before I get up early tomorrow morning. That's right, tomorrow begins my adventure to Omaha and the Olympic Trials. Please come find me or let me know if you'll be there! I will be up in the stands watching carefully and blogging, and I have some interesting features coming up on the Swimming World website. Enjoy finals, and next time you hear from me, I will be on my way to Omaha!

U.S. Olympic Trials: Day Three Finals

In my blog after the second session of finals, I declared the theme of the night to be emotion. Tonight, Tom Willdridge explained on Twitter that "The drama in the last 3 races at US Trials has surpassed the entire first 2 days of trials. Shock after shock after shock." Indeed, I don't think anyone could have predicted the way these finals would work out. Some of the performances we saw were surprisingly fast and others shockingly slow. Indeed, the swims fell perfectly into the two categories with the big favorites falling short of expectations while the less-experienced swimmers blasted the doors off. Let's start with the vets.

Michael Phelps and Ryan Lochte went head-to-head once again in the 200 free, with Phelps getting the win and getting the sport a 19-second spot on SportsCenter. But 1:45.70 and 1:45.75? Those times are far short of where they were at last year's Worlds, where Lochte won with a 1:44.44. A year of training has gone to waste? I don't think so. Lochte and Phelps want to peak at the Olympics. Swimming off minimal taper, they just clinched their spots to go up against Park Tae Hwan, Paul Biedermann, and Yannick Agnel in London. Agnel, remember, still has the top time in the world at 1:44.42. But we are talking about Phelps and Lochte. All that matters is swimming well in London, when gold medals and legacies are on the line. They will be there. They will be gold medal favorites. Expect nothing less from the two greatest swimmers in the world.

Some thought Breeja Larson could sneak ahead of Jessica Hardy into the second spot for the 100 breast. Sure. But did anyone think she could beat Rebecca Soni? No way. Larson put together an incredible swim to take the win in 1:05.92, with Soni second in 1:05.99. Soni has swum more than a second faster each of the last two years. She still has the top time in the world from the semi-finals at 1:05.82. And Soni is still the best breaststroker in the world. Tonight's swim contained a myriad of mistakes for Soni, like a truly terrible finish, and in her postrace interview with NBC, Soni seemed genuinely shocked with the time. Like Phelps and Lochte, though, Soni is an Olympic record. She has a track record of going faster at the big ones. Soni will still go into the Olympics as the favorite for gold, and expect something big out of her in London.

Meanwhile, Breeja Larson! Where did that come from? Larson did not swim at Long Course Nationals last summer after a health scare, and she's gone from second at NCAAs as a freshman to a victory and American record as a sophomore to a shocking Olympic berth. Breeja Larson is a medal contender now! Again, Soni is still the huge favorite for gold, Leisel Jones is still around, and Yuliya Efimova will be in the mix. But she has come from nowhere, and you never know what this young lady could pull off in a month's time. At the same time, though, you have to feel bad for Jessica Hardy after all she has been through the past four years. She will be back, though, in the sprint freestyles.

The women's 100 back was a coming-out party. Missy Franklin is now an Olympian. In a changing-of-the-guard, she broke Natalie Coughlin's American record to establish herself as the top swimmer in the world and favorite for gold in London. She never backs down from expectations, and she never backs down from a challenge, such as sitting out just one heat between the second semi-final of the 200 free and the 100 back final. I didn't think Rachel Bootsma would go any faster than her 59.10 in the semi-finals, but she has a spot on the team. And props to Natalie Coughlin. Coughlin went out for it and died hard, but she showed some the heart of a champion and immediately went to congratulate the pair that dethroned her in the 100 back. What a performance after the race. Here's to hoping Coughlin gets on the team down the line in the 100 frece.

"I had to do a double-take with the clock, because I thought it was wrong." You may understand why Rowdy Gaines used this quote. Matt Grevers just swam the second-fastest time ever! Where did that come from! Now, Grevers is the favorite to win gold in London, and he could be a big factor in the 200 back and 100 free later on this week. After an American sprint backstroke slump following the retirement of Aaron Peirsol, Nick Thoman also put up a top-three time in the world this year after his 52.86 to become a first-time Olympian. Hard not to feel bad, though, for David Plummer (52.98) and Ben Hesen (53.03), both of whom put up spectacular swims to just miss out. But after Brendan Hansen's 100 breast time of 59.68 from yesterday, any American question marks regarding the first half of the 400 medley relay are gone.

In semi-final action, Missy Franklin just made sure she got second in the 200 free in preparation for that 100 back. Allison Schmitt threw down a 1:55.58, but it will be quite a duel between those two tomorrow. We still haven't seen anything too impressive behind those two in search of relay depth, but just wait for the final to see what Dana Vollmer can put on the board and who else will make a statement in hopes of getting on a finals relay in London. In another women's final tomorrow, world record-holder Ariana Kukors should remain the on-paper favorite, but she has not been swimming fast yet at these Trials. Caitlin Leverenz has laid down a 2:10.51, and after a string of impressive performances in the 200 IM, she now has become the true favorite. Elizabeth Pelton pulled out of the 100 back final to focus on the 200 IM, and she will be out fast without question. Expect a great strategic race here, and I think Leverenz will take the win.

Michael Phelps returned to the pool for the semi-finals of the 200 fly, and he looked sluggish until the last 15 meters, when he turned on the gas and almost caught up to heat leaders Bobby Bollier and Davis Tarwater. The race might be a bit ugly, but Phelps will win tomorrow night. I expect a time in the 1:54-low range. The battle for second could be interesting. Tarwater missed out again in his quest for an Olympic spot after finishing seventh in the 200 free, and he will be out fast in the final. Bollier and Tyler Clary are good, consistent 200 flyers, and I'm not sure anyone on the outside of the middle four can get in on this mix.

What a night in Omaha! How much better of a swim meet can you watch on television? But it would be a bit better life from the CenturyLink Center. I have just one more day here at home before I am off on my trip to the Cornhusker state. The drama and storylines are building up, and I can't wait to be a witness.

U.S. Olympic Trials: Day Three Prelims

After witnessing the most uneventful session of the meet this morning, we now gear up for the first full slate of four finals in just a few short hours. The Olympic team could double in size tonight as 12 new spots are handed out in the CenturyLink Center. And what better way to kick off the finals than with the men's 200 free. Nothing has changed since my last blog; this race still belongs to two men named Ryan Lochte and Michael Phelps, in some order. 400 free runner-up Conor Dwyer and relay staple Ricky Berens have the edge on the third spot to head to London on the 800 free relay, but anyone in that final heat could head to London. Peter Vanderkaay missing out on the final does tweak my picks just a bit, but we'll see a nail bitter the whole way for the top six spots.

I'm standing pat with my predictions in the men's 100 back and women's 100 breast, but the stellar swims we saw yesterday from teenagers Missy Franklin and Rachel Bootsma gives them the edge, I think, in the women's 100 back final. Combined with the lackluster performances we've seen thus far from two-time defending gold medalist Natalie Coughlin, I think Franklin and Bootsma have done enough to go to London in the 100 back. Coughlin will swim much faster than she swam in the semi-final last night, but I don't think she can take a spot in the top two. Despite a double with the 200 free semi-final tonight, I think Franklin will win this race, and I think she'll break Coughlin's American record of 58.94.

Updated Predictions:
Men's 200 Free:
1. Ryan Lochte
2. Michael Phelps
3. Ricky Berens
4. Conor Dwyer
5. Matt McLean
6. Davis Tarwater

Women's 100 Back
1. Missy Franklin
2. Rachel Bootsma

Men's 100 Back
1. Matt Grevers
2. Nick Thoman

Women's 100 Breast
1. Rebecca Soni
2. Jessica Hardy

The American women took the gold last year in the women's 800 free relay at Worlds, but two of the four who swam on that team will not go for spots in London. Katie Hoff, battling illness for the past several days, missed the semi-finals, and Dagny Knutson did not even come to Omaha. I still think this team is the best in the world, led by Franklin, Allison Schmitt, and Dana Vollmer, but the U.S. needs some step-up performances tonight and tomorrow. I look at Georgia swimmers Morgan Scroggy and Megan Romano as those most capable of giving the team a boost in the 200 free.

Aside from the headliners of Phelps, Bollier, and Clary, I saw some familiar names make it into the semi-finals of the men's 200 fly. The University of South Carolina's Michael Flach became the first swimmer representing my home state to advance with a seventh-seeded 1:58.56. I have had the pleasure of running into Michael a couple of times during the past year, in which he has been redshirting from NCAA competition, and I look forward to watching him swim tonight.

15 swimmers broke 2:00 in the 200 fly this morning, and Dominick Glavich came about as close as you can get at 2:00.03. The University of North Carolina standout completed the semi-finalists, and I wish him good luck tonight as well. I watched Glavich race at the TYR Capital Classic in 2010 when I covered the meet for Swimming World, and I also raced with him at a meet last summer in Savannah, Georgia. We swam together in a 200 back heat in which I swam 75 meters after an aborted start until a teammate jumped into the pool to stop me.

Tom Shields went under 2:00 this morning to put himself into the semi-finals, as did Will Hamilton, Shields' Cal teammate who, as a freshman, stole the NCAA title in this event from right under Shields' nose. I expect a bigger swim out of Shields in the 100 fly, where he could serve as a spoiler for the top contenders to finish second behind Michael Phelps.

U.S. Olympic Trials: Day Two Finals

What a night two at Trials... and I missed it! I was at a summer league meet, following results closely, and I had to watch all the races on my DVR hours later. In the three finals I watched, I saw one key theme: emotion. Each of the six new Olympians showed hugely different emotions that reflected the magnitude of making the Olympic team. Each came from somewhere different and faced adversity. The roads for all six ended in victory tonight. And beyond tonight, each will turn their emotions into adrenaline, and I think all can improve and swim much faster at the Olympics in a month.

Dana Vollmer made the Olympic team and won gold in 2004, but she missed out four years ago in the very same CenturyLink Center. Tonight, she put those demons behind her. In her best event, the 100 fly, Vollmer did not break the world record or even her own American record, but she made it. She didn't go the time she wanted, but how can you not feel relieved? Dana Vollmer is now a two-time Olympian. Now she can refocus and go after the ultimate prize: gold. And Claire Donahue is a first-time Olympian. Swimming in lane one yet firmly in the line of view of her competitors, Donahue came out and got it done. Sure, she is happy; how can you not be in that situation? But most of all, we saw pride from Claire Donahue. The first Olympic swimmer ever from Western Kentucky, she proudly displayed the flag of her alma mater for all to see on national television.

When Brendan Hansen touched first in the men's 100 breast final, we saw validation. Hansen felt validated in making a comeback after two disappointing Olympic performances. Combined with his renewed sense of passion and excitement, Hansen can go after the one prize that has eluded him: individual Olympic gold. And then there's Eric Shanteau. Four years ago, Shanteau couldn't really celebrate when he made the Olympic team, knowing he faced a decision if he would make the trip to London or not after learning of his diagnosis with testicular cancer. Tonight, though, he had no decisions facing him. In his weaker of the two breaststroke events, Shanteau got his hands on the fall, and he exploded with excitement. I have never seen such excitement from Shanteau, not when he broke American records, when he won a relay world title, or especially when he qualified in Omaha four years ago. No, that right there was four years of built-up emotion spilling out.

Allison Schmitt took out the women's 400 free final a second and a half under world record-pace. Batting nerves and jitters, Schmitt went out and looked invincible. That is, until she started coming back to Chloe Sutton on the final 100. No worries, though. Schmitt is an Olympian for the second straight games, and she will have her head on straight when she steps up to race Camille Muffat, Federica Pellegrini, and Rebecca Adlington in London. Despite those nerves, Schmitt has shown she can challenge the big three. Sutton, meanwhile, always swims with emotion, and she showed it tonight. Laying low on the racing scene this year after not wearing fastskins for much of the year, Sutton gave everything she had tonight and took a second off her best time to get on the team. Sutton, like Hansen, felt validation in making the team. An open water Olympian in 2008, she gave up her open water ambitions to focus on making the Olympics in the 400 and 800 free, and she will be in the pool in London.

The men's 200 free semi-finals featured two men: Ryan Lochte and Michael Phelps. The two went kick-for-kick off the final wall and stroke-for-stroke down the final 15 meters. Who will get those top two Olympic spots tomorrow? Lochte and Phelps. Or Phelps and Lochte. The battle is for the third, fourth, fifth, and sixth spots for the 800 free relay. Conor Dwyer has established himself as a favorite with big swims the last two nights, and you can never count out someone with the experience of Ricky Berens. Peter Vanderkaay missing out, though, hurts the U.S. team. A mainstay on this relay for eight years, the relay will look strikingly different without the reigning Olympic bronze medalist. As a member of the team already, Vanderkaay could still find his way onto the relay, especially with his coach Gregg Troy as head Olympic coach.

The women's 100 breast should be a question of how low can Rebecca Soni go, and can Jessica Hardy challenge her. If not, can Breeja Larson push Hardy for the second spot on the team? Larson has already shown her capabilities with a 1:06.52 prelims race. Hardy's inconsistency in the 100 breast makes a race with Soni for the win just as possible as a race with Larson for the second spot. But if you're putting money on this race, Soni will take the win, and Hardy will finish second.

Matt Grevers threw his name out as the 100 back favorite with a 52.94 prelims swim, and all we learned in the semi-final tonight is that the race will be tight. Grevers, David Plummer, and Nick Thoman are all 53-low going into the final, and behind them, the field has gotten a whole lot faster. Six guys swam under 54 tonight, and as I've said, count out nobody in the middle lanes in this final. Ben Hesen swam a 53.52 to place himself in lane six, a perfect spot for a spoiler, and high schooler Ryan Murphy has been cutting off huge increments of time with each passing race. I like my pick of Grevers and Thoman, but the race is on.

Missy Franklin and Rachel Bootsma both lit up the board tonight in the women's 100 back semi-finals, with respective times of 59.06 and 59.10. We saw one other sub-1:00 time, a 59.82 from Olivia Smoliga, another teenager. Where does that leave two-time defending Olympic champion and 29 year old Natalie Coughlin? Out in lane one with the seventh-best qualifying time, a 1:00.63. Do I count out Coughlin? Never. But she has the biggest battle of her career ahead of her to make the Olympic team in her signature event. Franklin has the semi-final of the 200 free before the 100 back final tomorrow, but I don't think that matters. This is Missy Franklin's coming out party, and she will secure her spot on her first Olympic team with a big win in the final.

U.S. Olympic Trials: Who is Scott Weltz?

In tonight's final of the men's 100 breast, the favorites include past U.S. Olympians Brendan Hansen, Mark Gangloff, and Eric Shanteau. Many know of Mike Alexandrov changing his nationality after representing Bulgaria in two Olympics or Kevin Cordes' emergence over the last year as one of America's best young talents. We have watched Marcus Titus fight to ensure that, as a deaf swimmer, he would have a fair chance at these Trials  with a strobe light at the start, and if you think back a few years, you remember watching Clark Burckle win the 200 breast NCAA title back in 2010.

Well, that covers seven of the eight finalists. The other? Scott Weltz. Never heard of Scott Weltz? Not too surprising, honestly. Weltz has done a fantastic job of flying under the radar and peaking just when any athlete wants to – at Olympic Trials. Weltz swam at UC Davis from 2005 through 2010, redshirting the season prior to the 2008 Olympic Trials. He swam at the 2008 Trials but not the 100 breast; he swam in the 200 breast, both IMs, and the 400 free and did not finish higher than 30th. At NCAAs, he never made an A-final, settling for the consolation heats the whole way through. Before he posted times of 1:00.48 (prelims) and 1:00.20 (semis) yesterday, his best time was a 1:01.65 from Winter Nationals, where he won the consolation final. Only one other time had Weltz been under 1:02, and that came earlier this year at the Indianapolis Grand Prix.

In an interview last night with Swimming World, Weltz indicated that the key to his successful flying-under-the-radar has been swimming tired at meets throughout the year during intense training cycles. And that training is paying off. While no one will consider him a favorite, and it would be an upset, Scott Weltz could make the Olympic team tonight. Nobody picked him; nobody had any idea that he would be a factor. Of all the potential darkhorse candidates for Olympic Trials, Weltz came through and delivered in the first two rounds of the 100 breast to give himself a shot at his first Olympic team.

Weltz indicated in that interview that he thinks of himself as "more of a 200 guy." His times agree with that statement. Weltz' best in the 200 is a 2:12.37 from Winter Nationals, where he won the B-final in that event too. With his huge improvement in the 100, expect another big swim from him in the 200 breast. We love underdog stories in sports and seemingly-random swimmers coming from nowhere to put himself into contention to make the biggest swim meet on the planet. He has the lane; now, he has a chance to make the Olympics.

U.S. Olympic Trials: Day Two Prelims

Another day of prelims has wrapped up at the Olympic Trials in Omaha without too much drama. Most of the big names made it through their heats without too much trouble. The notable exception, of course, is 2008 Olympic silver medalist Katie Hoff, who finished well outside of the top eight in the women's 400 free. On the other side of the spectrum of Trials emotions, Matt Grevers put up a blazing 52.94 in the 100 back, the second-fastest time of his career, trailing only a swim from the 2009 World Championships.

Prelims kicked off with the women's 100 back. Missy Franklin and Rachel Bootsma bounced sub-1:00 swims off of each other, leaving veteran Natalie Coughlin in the dust with a fifth-seeded 1:00.71. Still, don't worry about Coughlin yet. Even if Coughlin can't quite hit the times she had hoped for early on in the meet, she has more mental toughness than almost any athlete you can find. She will find a way to get her hand on the wall.

The men's 200 free proceeded without incident as the top contenders all cruised into the semi-finals with swims in the 1:48 range. While I had expected slightly faster to start things off, once the pace was set, no one needed to go any faster. Ryan Lochte and Michael Phelps will go head-to-head tonight in semi-final two, a race I see as a preview of the final, where the two will battle for the win. The usual suspects – Peter Vanderkaay, Conor Dwyer, and Ricky Berens – are in the mix with faces you might be less accustomed to seeing in a 200 free, like Davis Tarwater. Rising Texas sophomore Clay Youngquist grabbed himself a semi-final spot, while Texas-ex David Walters pulled out after qualifying 16th. Looks like Walters will focus on the 100 free after suffering an injury setback in the last several months.

The U.S. currently has the top three swimmers in the world in the women's 100 breast - Rebecca Soni, Jessica Hardy, and Breeja Larson. With a 1:06.52 in prelims today, Larson threw her name into Olympic contention alongside the reigning World champ (Soni) and world record-holder (Hardy). A pairing that no one disagreed would head to London a few hours ago, Larson now has a legitimate shot at a top-two spot. In an interview with Swimming World, Larson implied that she did not give 100% of her effort in the race yet, so look for something more out of her tonight.

With Grevers leading the way with his sub-53 swim in prelims, the men's 100 back lost some of its luster when second-seeded Ryan Lochte pulled out. I had anticipated the move, since the 200 free final falls minutes before that of the 100 back, but the road to London is easier for Grevers, Nick Thoman, David Plummer, and others. Every few years, someone comes out of the woodwork to surprise the country in the 100 back; in 2008, Grevers upset Lochte and Randall Bal for a spot on the Olympic team, and in 2010, David Plummer stole the National title from under Aaron Peirsol's nose. While on paper it looks like it's just Grevers, Thoman, and Plummer, I'd be shocked if it actually turned out that way.

Besides the stunning disappointment of Katie Hoff missing the final, most of the favorites made their way in for tonight's race. Allison Schmitt finished first in prelims, while Chloe Sutton took third; young challenge Katie Ledecky split the pair. Elizabeth Beisel put down a lifetime best of 4:08.37 to get into the final, and Kate Ziegler is back in the mix, just 0.01 behind Beisel. I expect Schmitt to push the pace tonight, but you really can't count out any of these five. All have the experience – or in Ledecky's case, upside – to pull off a spot on the team. For my predictions, though, I will stand pat.

Women's 100 Fly
1. Dana Vollmer
2. Natalie Coughlin

Men's 100 Breast
1. Brendan Hansen
2. Mark Gangloff

Women's 400 Free
1. Allison Schmitt
2. Chloe Sutton

U.S. Olympic Trials: Day One Finals

Wow! What a first night of finals in Omaha.We saw the highs of Elizabeth Beisel swimming the fastest time in the world in the 400 IM and Caitlin Leverenz making her first Olympic team after three heartbreaking third and fourth-place finishes in 2008. We saw the lows in the men's 400 IM as Tyler Clary fell by the wayside to two all-time greats in Ryan Lochte and Michael Phelps. We saw an surprisingly slow race in the men's 400 free, but despite my time predictions, the two I picked earlier today came out on top. Not a ton developed tonight, but I have some quick thoughts to share.

I have long anticipated Ryan Lochte making a statement in the 400 IM final we saw tonight. He made a statement with the win, but I expected faster. I thought he would beat his lifetime best, but he fell more than a second short. But honestly, Lochte could have reached 4:06.08 - if he had not completely cut the gas at the flags. Phelps went ahead and made history with his fourth Olympic bid, but how can you not feel bad for Tyler Clary? Clary spent three years as the second-best swimmer in the world in the event, but Michael Phelps showed us tonight why he is the greatest of all-time. And the two gave swimming some publicity - a 27-second clip of the race on SportsCenter! And Lochte is trending nationally and worldwide on Twitter.

Florida-trained athletes claimed four of the six Olympic slots up for grabs tonight, but none of the four impressed me with their times. As I mentioned, I expected more of Lochte and still expect much more come the Olympics. Peter Vanderkaay won the men's 400 free in 3:47.67, but he put up a 3:44.83 at the Worlds last year to take fourth. Elizabeth Beisel beat her World Champs winning time in the 400 IM by 0.04, but she seemed genuinely surprised by her time. What could that mean? Did Gregg Troy not fully rest his athletes in hopes of improved performance in London? It sure looks like it. One thing I know is that the Gators have a lot left in the tank.

Two semi-final races tonight set up strikingly similar scenes for the finals of the women's 100 fly and men's 100 breast. Brendan Hansen is back with a 59.71 semi-final swim, almost a half second in front of anyone else headed into the final. I think the battle is on for second, with newcomers such as Scott Weltz and Kevin Cordes batting savvy veterans in Mark Gangloff and Eric Shanteau. The women's 100 fly? Dana Vollmer's American record sets her up as the class of the field and Olympic favorite, but anyone else could qualify for the second spot. Elaine Breeden has a shot at her second Olympic team, Natalie Coughlin could qualify early for her third, or a younger swimmer like Kelsey Floyd or Claire Donahue could climb into the spot. Donahue could start as the favorite, though, as she is the only swimmer outside of Vollmer to break 58 in either the prelims or semis.

Defending Olympic silver medalist Christine Magnuson got into the 100 fly final, but she will dive off the lane eight block tomorrow. We haven't seen a performance like we've expected from Magnuson in two years, since she won Nationals in 2010 in 57.32. While that time would probably make the Olympic team, I'm not sure she has that kind of performance in the tank right now. I will post my full list of predictions tomorrow after prelims; I have one night to decide who I think takes the second slot in both of these events.

U.S. Olympic Trials: Day One Prelims

Trials have begun, and in the first morning of prelims, we've already seen some fast swims. Those swims include a world-leading time and another that ranks in the top-three. Obviously, though, we are just getting started. I wanted to take a quick look at this morning's swims before the first heats of finals dive off the blocks, and the first swimmers qualify for the Olympic Team.

Ryan Lochte was the top qualifier in the 400 IM. By a lot. Swimming by himself in the final heat, Lochte put up a time of 4:10.66, more than four seconds faster than Michael Phelps and three seconds faster than he swam in prelims at Trials four years ago. At that meet, Lochte swam his still-standing lifetime best time of 4:06.08. Do I think he drops three seconds off of that in finals? No, but I think he wins the race, and I think he goes his best time. Phelps' U.S. Open record of 4:05.25 is in jeopardy.

Now, the real battle is for second. Phelps dragged North Baltimore teammate Chase Kalisz to the second seed, but I think it comes down to lane five versus lane six, Phelps vs. Tyler Clary. Both have indicated that they didn't really put much effort into the race in prelims, but I'm going to stick with my prediction that Clary takes the second spot onto his first Olympic team. Never a good idea to pick against Michael Phelps, though, and I recognize that. Look for an epic race tonight.

Updated Predictions:
1. Ryan Lochte
2. Tyler Clary

Dana Vollmer. That about sums up the women's 100 fly. Vollmer swam the top time in the world this year with her 56.59. That is faster than Sarah Sjostrom's 56.79 from March and Inge de Brujin's twelve year old U.S. Open record of 56.64. And that was prelims. Vollmer wants a world record. Vollmer wants to swim a 55. And at this point, it's hard to doubt her. Beyond Vollmer, Claire Donahue looked good in breaking 58 to qualify second, and Elaine Breeden and Natalie Coughlin are both in the mix, as expected. Christine Magnuson, though, could be in trouble. She qualified eighth in 59.05, but she needs to make a statement in the semi-finals tonight if she wants to have a chance of making the team.

Heat ten of the men's 400 free, the first of the circle-seeded heats, featured a four-way race between Connor Jaeger, Charlie Houchin, Matt Patton, and Conor Dwyer. Jaeger ended up taking the win in 3:48.06, while the other three all got under 3:49. Ryan Feeley and Matt McLean ended up going 1-2 in the next heat, before Peter Vanderkaay won the final heat over Michael Klueh and Michael McBroom. When the dust settled, McBroom finished eighth in 3:49.89, while McLean was ninth in 3:49.96. Tough break for the defending national champion McLean, who also ended up ninth four years ago. McLean, though, still could make the Olympic team in the 200 free as a relay swimmer, but the road is much tougher.

Vanderkaay, despite qualifying fifth, is still the favorite to take the win. Vanderkaay says he's going for his best time tonight, a 3:43.10 from the 2008 Olympics. I'm not sure he can go that fast right now, but I expect a swim in the 3:44-mid range, around the 3:44.83 he swam to take fourth at the Worlds last year. Second place will be a tough battle, but I'll go with Conor Dwyer for that second spot in a tight battle. I think a time in the 3:46-mid range should be enough to get on that Olympic team.

Updated Predictions:
1. Peter Vanderkaay
2. Conor Dwyer

I picked Elizabeth Beisel and Caitlin Leverenz to go 1-2 in the women's 400 IM, and I can't see the race turning out any other way. Beisel led the way with her 4:35.72, and only Leverenz was within four seconds. In what turned out to be a fairly weak field - only three broke 4:40 in prelims - Beisel could come close to Katie Hoff's American record of 4:31.12, set in Omaha four years ago. The world champion will set herself up for a run at Olympic gold.

Updated Predictions:
1. Elizabeth Beisel
2. Caitlin Leverenz

The men's 100 breast prelims featured six swimmers under 1:01, surprisingly led by John Criste at 1:00.29. Favorite Brendan Hansen ended up just one one-hundredth behind at 1:00.30, and two-time Olympian Mark Gangloff ended up third, followed by Scott Weltz, Kevin Cordes, and Eric Shanteau. Oh, and Mike Alexandrov, Clark Burckle, and Marcus Titus are looming. Should be interesting to see who makes top-eight, and the semi-finals tonight will sort through these top-16.

Some of my personal highlights from prelims came in the earlier heats. Megan Kingsley from Mount Pleasant Swim Club dropped three seconds in the women's 400 IM to place 25th overall. Just 16 and swimming from lane one, Kingsley dominated her heat from the outset and didn't let anyone catch her. While she didn't advance out of prelims, she just picked up this Trials cut six weeks ago at the Charlotte UltraSwim. Watch out for her in the 200 fly coming up.

Swimming World's Jeff Commings competed in his third Olympic Trials today, and he put up a strong time of 1:04.12 in the men's 100 breast. It has been quite a pleasure reading Jeff's blog over the past year as he chronicled his journey to the Olympic Trials, and I thoroughly enjoyed watching him swim. Now, Jeff goes back to work, but he doesn't have far to go; watch for Jeff in Swimming World's coverage of the meet.

Trials go live on NBC at 8pm ET tonight, and I'll be glued to the TV for the hour following. After that, semis of the men's 100 breast will be broadcast online. Should be fantastic. I'll be back to share my thoughts on the first night when it's all over.

U.S. Olympic Trials: The Predictions

The Trials start tomorrow. The swim world is buzzing, and the swim geeks are geeking. Over the past two days, you've read my thoughts about this meet. Now, let's see who I think take the spots to go to London and the Olympic Games.

Men’s 400 IM

1. Ryan Lochte

2. Tyler Clary

Women’s 100 Fly

1. Dana Vollmer

2. Natalie Coughlin

Men’s 400 Free

1. Peter Vanderkaay

2. Michael Klueh

Women’s 400 IM

1. Elizabeth Beisel

2. Caitlin Leverenz

Men’s 100 Breast

1. Brendan Hansen

2. Mark Gangloff

Women’s 100 Back

1. Missy Franklin

2. Natalie Coughlin

Men’s 200 Free

1. Ryan Lochte

2. Michael Phelps

3. Peter Vanderkaay

4. Ricky Berens

5. Conor Dwyer

6. Matt McLean

Women’s 100 Breast

1. Rebecca Soni

2. Jessica Hardy

Men’s 100 Back

1. Matt Grevers

2. Nick Thoman

Women’s 400 Free

1. Allison Schmitt

2. Chloe Sutton

Women’s 200 Free

1. Allison Schmitt

2. Missy Franklin

3. Dana Vollmer

4. Katie Hoff

5. Megan Romano

6. Morgan Scroggy

Men’s 200 Fly

1. Michael Phelps

2. Davis Tarwater

Women’s 200 IM

1. Caitlin Leverenz

2. Ariana Kukors

Men’s 100 Free

1. Nathan Adrian

2. Garrett Weber-Gale

3. Jimmy Feigen

4. Matt Grevers

5. Ricky Berens

6. Jason Lezak

Women’s 200 Fly

1. Kathleen Hersey

2. Cammile Adams

Men’s 200 Breast

1. Eric Shanteau

2. Brendan Hansen

Women’s 100 Free

1. Missy Franklin

2. Natalie Coughlin

3. Dana Vollmer

4. Megan Romano

5. Allison Schmitt

6. Jessica Hardy

Men’s 200 Back

1. Ryan Lochte

2. Tyler Clary

Women’s 200 Breast

1. Rebecca Soni

2. Amanda Beard

Men’s 200 IM

1. Michael Phelps

2. Ryan Lochte

Men’s 50 Free

1. Nathan Adrian

2. Josh Schneider

Women’s 800 Free

1. Chloe Sutton

2. Kate Ziegler

Men’s 100 Fly

1. Michael Phelps

2. Tyler McGill

Women’s 200 Back

1. Missy Franklin

2. Elizabeth Beisel

Women’s 50 Free

1. Jessica Hardy

2. Dara Torres

Men’s 1500 Free

1. Chad La Tourette

2. Peter Vanderkaay

U.S. Olympic Trials: Two Days Out

Olympic Trials are nearly here. The Olympic spirit is in the air as athletes and coaches have made their way to Omaha. Trials in diving and track fill up most of the day's schedule on NBC. At the King County Aquatic Center near Seattle, we hope to be witnessing a resurgence in American diving led by David Boudia and Nick McCrory. Still, the grand jewel of Trials is coming up on Monday - swimming. Swimmers as different as a 16 year old girl from South Carolina and a 38 year old former National teamer will take to the blocks Monday morning, and I anticipate both of their results equally. With the meet just two days away, I have yet to make my customary predictions. You will see those posted here tomorrow. With my picks almost finished, I want to share some of my biggest challenges in choosing Olympians.

First and foremost, what events will Michael Phelps and Ryan Lochte swim? The biggest challenge comes in the 400 IM, where Phelps remains vague about whether he will compete. Phelps indicated after his final meet in Austin that he had completed his final 400 IM, but Phelps likes making history; a swim in the 400 IM would guarantee Phelps the first shot to become the first man to ever win three Olympic golds in consecutive Olympics. Lochte remains the clear favorite as the two-time World champion, but Phelps has the capability to compete with two-time World silver medalist Tyler Clary. Clary has indicated that he will aim for a time in the 4:08-range, which I think Phelps can beat if he really wants to do the 400 IM. I don't think Phelps will swim the 400 IM, but he certainly might end up doing so. Regardless, I will go with the duo that has gone 1-2 at the Worlds twice now for the two spots: Lochte and Clary.

The men's 100 free shapes up as another interesting race, with or without Phelps and Lochte. I expect both men to compete in the event at least once to prove they deserve spots on the 400 free relay – which I believe they do – but I don't think either can afford to go all the way to the final. Controversy sparked when Phelps swam on the 400 free relay after not competing in the event at Trials. That could leave eight men in the pool of possibilities to swim on the relay in London. Keep an eye out for what the coaches do in that situation, if it does transpire as I expect.

Amanda Beard disappeared to much of the swimming community after her gold medal performance in the 200 breast in Athens eight years ago. Yeah, we knew she was coming back, but not a lot of people expected her to get on the Olympic team for a fourth time. But in the end, Beard touched the wall second in front of Caitlin Leverenz and ended up in Beijing. This time, though, Beard did not wait nearly a full Olympiad to make a statement. After the Pan Pacs wrapped up in 2010, Beard found herself on the Worlds team in both breaststrokes. Do I doubt her this time? Nope. I pick Amanda Beard to finish second to Rebecca Soni and go to London in the 200 breast.

A top-two finish in Omaha would make Beard another five-time Olympian. Dara Torres could leave Omaha a six-time Olympian, but she has far less margin for error. Torres will race the 50 free, a one-lap dash against the likes of Jessica Hardy, Amanda Weir, Kara Lynn Joyce, and Lara Jackson. Intense? Oh yes. Torres has the experience and mental edge to pull it off, but she is 45 years old. Certainly, Torres could become the oldest member of a U.S. Olympic swim team ever. This time, though, Torres is no lock or a favorite. She might make the team, and she might not. She has one event to swim this time, not two or three like she has in past Olympics. I know one thing: I trust experience. And I trust Dara Torres to get her hand on the wall.

How good is Missy Franklin? We are about to find out for sure. She is the clear favorite in the 200 back, and no one doubts she is one of the best in the country in the 100 back and both the 100 and 200 free. But can she beat Allison Schmitt in the 200 free? Natalie Coughlin in the 100 back? Dana Vollmer in the 100 free? Those are big picks. Can she maintain the level of improvement she showed last year and wow us again? In our chat yesterday, Tom Willdridge suggested that Franklin may not sparkle at Trials but will wow us once again on the biggest stage. Tough calls to make.

I never like to pick upsets. But in some events, like the men's 400 free and women's 200 fly, no one can agree on who will claim one or both Olympic slots. Every Trials, some swimmer emerges from international obscurity to go to the Olympics. Elaine Breeden, Christine Magnuson, and Scott Spann all fit that bill from 2008. Expect it or not, upsets will happen in Omaha. Could it be someone like Cammile Adams or Michael McBroom, those whose success has been more limited to the NCAA scene? How about high schoolers Ryan Murphy or Katie Ledecky? We will see shocks. Expect the unexpected. I will try to predict results, but we won't find out until the Trials get underway. Predicting is fun, but watching the upsets unfold will be the true excitement. We are 48 hours away from the first final in Omaha. Next up, the picks.

Trials 101

The time has come. Olympic Trials are upon us once more. I will never forget where I was four years ago when I watched Michael Phelps and Ryan Lochte battle to the end in an epic 400 IM in Omaha where both broke the existing world record. That paved the way for a fantastic meet which featured nine swims in the WR category, the formation of one of the strongest U.S. teams in recent memory, and excitement which gripped the nation more than ever before. Once again, the eyes of the United States descend upon Omaha for eight days of triumph and heartbreak, the likes of which swimming only sees once every four years. 14,000 people will see firsthand one of the greatest spectacles in sport, while millions more will watch Dan Hicks and Rowdy Gaines call the races on NBC. Expect greatness.

Instead of a traditional look-ahead to the Trials, I went with a different approach. Tom Willdridge of the Speed Endurance Swim Blog was nice enough to join me for a lengthy chat in which we discussed some of the big storylines regarding the meet. We started with some of the topics on everyone's lips and then moved into some of the other events coming up this week. Agree/disagree? Please leave comments below! Here's what we expect.

David Rieder

Thanks for participating, Tom. Let's get started right away: Phelps or Lochte?

Tom Willdridge
Just an easy question to start with then. Everything over the last few years would suggest Lochte, but seeing Phelps in Shanghai last year get so close in the 200m IM makes me lean towards him regaining the upper hand. I think if both men are at their peaks, Phelps wins.
Where do you stand?

David Rieder
If we look at the 200 IM, circumstances favor Phelps. Lochte has a nasty double that day - 200 back and then 200 IM a half hour later. I expect very fast times, no question about that. But I agree; I did not expect that kind of speed from Phelps last summer. I think it's fair to say that going into the meet, I pick Phelps in the 200 IM.

David Rieder
200 free I'm less sure. Lochte has been improving at a ridiculous rate the past few years, and I assume that will only continue. He's in the same situation Phelps was headed into 2008, training with Peter Vanderkaay and Conor Dwyer. I really can't decide between those two yet, but I think the time will beat what Lochte swam in Shanghai last year.

Tom Willdridge
Saying that, Phelps has still been over half a second faster than Lochte in a textile suit. So again, if both men are at 100% you'd have to favor Phelps

David Rieder
That's true, but I really expect both men to be in that 1:43-high range. But yeah, Phelps at his best is the best. Do we assume that he will be at his absolute best? I mean, I expect him to do well, but his very best is, well, REALLY good!

Tom Willdridge
Given his career to this point, you have to think he is as driven as he's ever been to ensure he goes out on top
Could Berens or Dwyer spring a surprise or is a relay spot their best hope?

David Rieder
For sure. Just a question of whether he had enough time to get in that kind of shape.
I've liked what I've seen from Berens, especially, this year, and I expect something fast, but I don't think he's under 1:45. A great swim won't really throw anyone else into the hunt for the individual spot.
As for Lochte, he could swim the 100 back ten minutes after the 200 free final. Does he try the double?

Tom Willdridge
Great question. The 100m Back is pretty crucial for a potential gold medal tally given the relay, as is the 100m Free. I've got a feeling he will go for it.
The 100m Back is also fairly open; he could qualify with a 52 high/53 low.

David Rieder
I don't know if he will (try), but I can't imagine him making it. Grevers, Thoman, and Plummer will be at their best - sub-53 is very possible for all three - and I don't think Lochte can get that low on ten minutes rest. We are talking one final and two commercial breaks in between. You basically have time to get out and go to the ready room.

Tom Willdridge
The manic grand prix schedules he has been doing and this brutal training regime might indicate that he's gearing up for a superhuman schedule.
He's the type of guy that seems to want to do something crazy/special.

David Rieder
That would be crazy; no question.
Let's change gears and talk about the other main focus of the general media at these Trials, Missy Franklin.
What do you expect from her?

Tom Willdridge
Ah, the opinion splitter. Is there a swimmer that divides opinion more than Franklin?
Let's start with the easier events to predict. The 200m Back should be a walk in the park, I expect her to also win the 100m Back and the 200m Freestyle in a tight battle with Allison Schmitt.

David Rieder
I agree, though I haven't decided if I will pick her first or second in the 100 back and 200 free.

Tom Willdridge
I also expect her to win the 100m Freestyle, but to not qualify for the 50m Free

David Rieder
What people can't seem to agree on is how much faster she's gotten. The way I look at it, she hasn't been racing so much this year and focused more on training. For that reason, I expect another lights-out performance just like we saw at the Worlds. I expect to be shocked again.

Tom Willdridge
I'm expecting fast, but not lights-out swims at Trials... I do expect her to get faster from Trials to Olympics given her age and her ability to get up for her races on the biggest stage

David Rieder
Fair enough. Let's go more in depth to those 100 races. I can't see Natalie Coughlin letting Franklin get away from her, but then again there's Elizabeth Pelton, Rachel Bootsma, and even someone like Megan Romano, and all three will be right in the mix.
I feel like it could be a two-, three-, four-, or even five-woman race.

Tom Willdridge
I think it would be a huge shock if it wasn't a Franklin-Coughlin 1-2, but Bootsma's 59.6 last year was certainly eye opening
Megan Romano seems to be heading into Trials with a fair bit of buzz about her, do you think it's justified?

David Rieder
I do; she has been quietly swimming lights-out this year. 1:00.1 and 54.1 in the 100 free a month out are good times! I think her real shot at making the team will come on relays.
Timewise, I can't see how Coughlin's American record is safe in that 100 back. Both Coughlin and Franklin were 59.1 last year, and Coughlin has been upping her training every year since she's been back. Thoughts?

Tom Willdridge
Agreed, Coughlin's time is on borrowed time... I think both women will be sub-59 at Trials.

David Rieder
How about the 100 free? It's tight at the top, but that race is still wide open, and I have no idea how fast any of those women can go.
Obviously, you have to believe Franklin can go a 53-low, and Vollmer and Coughlin have more in the tank than the 54.0s from last year, but who else can be in the mix?

Tom Willdridge
After her swim in Austin, Allison Schmitt has suddenly burst onto the scene alongside Romano. I like Jessica Hardy's chances too, who I think will have a great Trials... plus Amanda Weir seems to have a knack for making the US team

David Rieder
I agree. Probably 12 or more of the semi-finalists have a chance to make the team.

Tom Willdridge
Who wins the women's 100m Breast? Soni or Hardy?

David Rieder
If they race the 100 breast ten times, Soni wins nine. But the thing is, this could be the one that Hardy takes. I certainly don't think she will take both Trials and Olympics, and I will pick Soni for both. But Hardy has a shot, and she will be in the mix.
Both have 1:04.7-ish potential, but Soni is far more likely to convert.

Tom Willdridge
I've got a sneaky suspicion that Hardy will win the Trials. After everything that happened four years her hunger to impress/redress the balance will be enormous.
Plus, she has the added bonus of having beaten Soni already this year.
The way the last few years had been going Soni had been looking unbeatable.

David Rieder
I can see that. A very similar race to 2008 where Soni was the favorite and top qualifier and Hardy won from lane two. Like I said, I pick Soni, but I wouldn't be surprised.
How about the men's breaststrokes? Are we looking at Hansen and Shanteau taking both, or can someone else break it up?

Tom Willdridge
Hansen I think should make it, but I'm not so sure about Shanteau in the 100. Gangloff and Alexandrov on their day could take the second spot, my pick is Gangloff

David Rieder
Hansen is the favorite to win for sure, but that second spot could really be a tight race. I think Hansen has a 59-low in him, and I think that second swimmer will have to be right around that minute mark to make the team. Quite a change in a year.

Tom Willdridge
The 200 Breast could be even closer given Clark Burckle's 2:09 this yea; who are your picks?

David Rieder
Burckle's swim was great, but I think it's all Shanteau and Hansen. Shanteau's 2:09 at UltraSwim was big, given his times from that meet over the past few years, and Hansen has his confidence back in that 200. That's the big change for him lately.

Tom Willdridge
I think we might see Shanteau and Burckle take the 200m Breast spots.

David Rieder
Should be a good race for sure. Hansen will be out fast, and he'll have to hold off Shanteau and Burckle down the stretch. As we remember, that didn't turn out so good last time around.

Tom Willdridge
How about the sprint freestyles? Can anyone register a swim that will make Cielo or Magnussen sit up and take notice?

David Rieder
I'm not sure anyone can put up a time that can challenge Magnussen, but I expect a few 47s. Adrian has looked phenomenal this season, getting down to a 48-mid, and remember that he never got under 49 last year before he underperformed at Worlds. He's probably the only challenger for an individual medal in the 100 free - and probably the 50 too - assuming that Phelps won't go for the 100 free.

Tom Willdridge
I think Magnussen has put an end to that dream for Phelps. Can Lezak be a relay hero once again?

David Rieder
I have no idea what Jason Lezak can do. Hard to believe this won't be his last Trials. I think that, yes, he can make the relay, but will he? We will know a lot more about what he is capable of after prelims. Don't count this guy out; that's for sure. If he's in the final, watch out.

Tom Willdridge
I think Jimmy Feigen could be poised for a big swim in the 100 Free... but will there be enough firepower on the relay to challenge Australia and France?

David Rieder
I really think there will be. Like I said, Feigen and Berens look strong, and Weber-Gale underperformed on that relay last year. Lochte has a big swim in him. Again, though, not ready to make a prediction there until I see the race at Trials. No one should be naming race winners quite yet.

Tom Willdridge
You're a true patriot! Ok - Caitlin Leverenz. Talk to me, just how fast could she be, and can you see her getting past Kukors in the 200IM or Beisel in the 400IM?

David Rieder
I'd say that about any race! As for Leverenz, I really like her in the 200 IM. I do think she can take down Kukors in that, and I feel like she could be under 2:09. In the 400 IM, I still lean towards Beisel. She has been gearing up for Trials since Worlds last year, and she will throw down a big one to respond to what we've seen from Miley, Hosszu, and Rice over the past few months. Leverenz will be in the mix, and she is favorite for second, but I give her much more of a chance to win the 200 IM. I know you really like what she did at NCAAs - what do you expect?

Tom Willdridge
I think she is a real danger, her breaststroke is so much better than some of her rivals and she seems to be trending in the right direction as London approaches. I think there is still a lot more to see from her in the 400m IM

David Rieder
Definitely a lot more to see from her.

Tom Willdridge
Can you see any shocks in the women's medley events?

David Rieder
Not a whole lot. Beisel is there in that 200 IM, and you never know what someone like Katie Hoff will do event-wise, but I don't see anything too surprising happening there.

Tom Willdridge
Do you see Katie Hoff qualifying in an individual event?

David Rieder
I don't think so. I think training again with Paul Yetter does a lot for her confidence, but she looks like a piece of the 800 free relay at best. You never know, though; she would love to rebound after some letdowns the past couple years.

Tom Willdridge
She will be in the mix for one of the 400m Free spots with Schmitt, Sutton and of course Katie Ledecky. How do you think Ledecky will cope on the big stage?

David Rieder
I think Ledecky will swim well, but Schmitt and Sutton have the race to lose. I don't think Schmitt has lost this year, and of her main challengers, only Sutton has really been out of the races while she's been in a practice suit. As for times, I have no idea what they can do. 4:04-low, maybe a 4:03-high? Really don't know what to expect there.

Tom Willdridge
Schmitt scares me slightly (from a non-US perspective), she's underperformed recently but this year has been a different story. I think she is the one US swimmer that has a chance to get down to the Muffat, Adlington, Pellegrini level on the 400. Her improved speed could be a real weapon on both the 200 and 400.  

David Rieder
Certainly she has the best chance to do it this year. Remember, she was fourth in 2009 behind Pellegrini and the two Brits. She was closing on them too. Add in some speed and you have a weapon.

Thanks again to Tom for joining me. This Trials will be spectacular. Too spectacular to miss, actually. And won't. That's right, I will be in Omaha next Friday and Saturday to watch the fifth and sixth days of the Trials, and I cannot wait! Omaha will be Swim Geek heaven. If you will be in town, please let me know. Email me, or send me a message on Twitter or Facebook. And so, may the 2012 Olympic Swim Trials begin.