Thursday, January 13, 2011

Austin Grand Prix Predictions

No way I could resist predicting a Grand Prix meet with Phelps, Lochte, Hoff, and Lezak. Since no one has swam long course yet this year, look for the fastest time in the world in pretty much every event. Instead of giving a bunch of notes here, I will put some thoughts below most of my predictions. As usual, the psych sheet, live results, and live video are available, and finals will be live on Universal Sports Friday and Saturday nights at 5:30 PM central time.

Friday, January 14
Women's 200 Free
1. Katie Hoff, FAST
2. Missy Franklin, Colorado Stars
3. Chloe Sutton, Mission Viejo
*Momentum still building for Katie Hoff

Men's 200 Free
1. Michael Phelps, NBAC
2. Ryan Lochte, Gator
3. Ricky Berens, Longhorn
*Yes, Phelps showed up.

Women's 100 Breast
1. Haylee Johnson, UBC Dolphins
2. Raminta Dvariskyte, SMU
3. Siri Eva Kristiansen, Santa Clara
*Women's breaststrokes the weakest events at this meet

Men's 100 Breast
1. Eric Shanteau, Longhorn
2. Marcus Titus, Tucson Ford
3. Clark Burckle, Tucson Ford
*Eric Shanteau's last meet in Austin before moving to California

Women's 100 Fly
1. Elaine Breeden, Stanford
2. Kathleen Hersey, Longhorn
3. Rachel Bootsma, Aquajets
*Olympians > everyone else

Men's 100 Fly
1. Michael Phelps, NBAC
2. David Russell, Cal
3. Ricky Berens, Longhorn
*Phelps hasn't lost this race in more than five years

Women's 400 IM
1. Julia Smit, Stanford
2. Tanya Hunks, UBC Dolphins
3. Kathleen Hersey, Longhorn
*World Short Course record-holder prevails

Men's 400 IM
1. Tyler Clary, FAST
2. Todd Patrick, NBAC
3. Brian Johns, UBC Dolphins
*Too bad Lochte isn't swimming to take on Clary

Saturday, January 15
Women's 200 Fly
1. Elaine Breeden, Stanford
2. Kathleen Hersey, Longhorn
3. Tanya Hunks, UBC Dolphins
*Top two could go either way

Men's 200 Fly
1. Tyler Clary, FAST
2. Todd Patrick, NBAC
3. Brian Johns, UBC Dolphins
*How fast can Clary go?

Women's 50 Free
1. Missy Franklin, Colorado Stars
2. Julia Smit, Stanford
3. Andrea Georoff, SwimMAC
*Young superstar takes a win

Men's 50 Free
1. Josh Schneider, SwimMAC
2. Brent Hayden, UBC Dolphins
3. Jason Lezak, Rose Bowl
*Schneider keeps the ball rolling after winning bronze at Short Course worlds

Women's 100 Back
1. Elizabeth Pelton, NBAC
2. Missy Franklin, Colorado Stars
3. Rachel Bootsma, Aquajets
*Should be an awesome race between these three teenagers, all of whom made the Pan Pac team

Men's 100 Back
1. Nick Thoman, SwimMAC
2. Michael Phelps, NBAC
3. David Russell, Cal
*Thoman gets the better of Phelps again

Women's 400 Free
1. Katie Hoff, FAST
2. Chloe Sutton, Mission Viejo
3. Kate Ziegler, FAST
*Should be another amazing race; Hoff took gold at Short Course Worlds

Men's 400 Free
1. Peter Vanderkaay, Gator
2. Michael Klueh, Longhorn
3. Ryan Lochte, Gator
*Vanderkaay and Lochte have had epic battles in practice the last couple weeks

Women's 200 Breast
1. Haylee Johnson, UBC Dolphins
2. Raminta Dvariskyte, SMU
3. Siri Eva Kristiansen, Santa Clara
*Another wide open race

Men's 200 Breast
1. Eric Shanteau, Longhorn
2. Clark Burckle, Tucson Ford
3. Marcus Titus, Tucson Ford
*Shanteau wraps up yet another breaststroke sweep

Sunday, January 16
Women's 800 Free
1. Kate Ziegler, FAST
2. Chloe Sutton, Mission Viejo
3. Katie Hoff, FAST
*Should be another good one between the top two

Women's 200 IM
1. Missy Franklin, Colorado Stars
2. Julia Smit, Stanford
3. Elaine Breeden, Stanford
*Slight upset of former American record-holder

Men's 200 IM
1. Michael Phelps, NBAC
2. Ryan Lochte, Gator
3. Tyler Clary, FAST
*Lochte did 17,000 meters in practice yesterday

Women's 200 Back
1. Elizabeth Pelton, NBAC
2. Missy Franklin, Colorado Stars
3. Madison White, Crow Canyon
*Another battle of young studs

Men's 200 Back
1. Tyler Clary, FAST
2. Rex Tullius, Gator
3. Nick Thoman, SwimMAC
*Clary grabs his third win of the meet

Women's 100 Free
1. Katie Hoff, FAST
2. Missy Franklin, Colorado Stars
3. Julia Smit, Stanford
*Franklin earns her third podium of the night

Men's 100 Free
1. Brent Hayden, UBC Dolphins
2. Michael Phelps, NBAC
3. Jason Lezak, Rose Bowl
*Should be the best race of the meet

Men's 1,500 Free
1. Peter Vanderkaay, Gator
2. Michael Klueh, Longhorn
3. Andrew Gemmell, Deleware
*How low can Vanderkaay go?

9 comments:

  1. I agree that the Men's 100 Free will easily be the best race of the meet. 200 Free is a close second. I'm also looking forward to seeing Shateau sweep in his last meet as a Texas Pro. You'll might get some flak for picking Phelps over Lochte in their races but I, for one, think you're right on. Of course I also think he'll win the 100 Back ;)

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  2. Look at what I wrote for the 200 IM. Lochte did 17k yesterday. That is so much! He doesn't have a history of fast in-season swims. Neither does someone like Garrett Weber-Gale, which is why I left him out of predictions. This kind of meet can often be harder to predict than National-level meets.

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  3. I saw your note that Lochte did 17K in practice. That's sick! I have a feeling he might be showing off some faster in-season swims based on how well he's been doing since Nats. But it's LC, so we shall see. As for GWG, I think it's pretty cool he's adding some middle distance swims to his schedule for this meet.

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  4. Agree about GWG. He seems genuinely excited about the 400 too, good for him! I could see this being a springboard into a bigger focus on the 200, maybe try to make the 800 free relay. That said, he's not an in-season swimmer either. Thing about Lochte... if Phelps goes 1:47-high in the 200, it's an alright swim for right now; if Lochte does that, it is like he broke a world record - you get my point.

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  5. You're right about that. Whether Lochte fans want to admit it or not, Phelps is still in a class by himself. It's going to be a great weekend of racing for sure! But I hope the whole "Lochte vs. Phelps" thing doesn't overshadow what is sure to be a lot of other good performances (Hoff, Franklin, Clary, PVK, etc).

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  6. We know Lochte is pretty beat up. He's doing 18K/day, yesterday afternoon he did 8K at practice alone. Knowing Ryan he's going to Austin to get some racing in, entertain the masses while doing so, and then head back to Gainsville for more Coach Troy-inspired beatings with his eye on Worlds. No one underestimates Phelps, especially Ryan Lochte but we can say it's safe to assume Bowman's got him pretty whacked-out, too. Still not exactly sure why thinking Lochte is/can be great takes anything away from Phelps, though. Did Phelps take anything away from Spitz? No, of course not. Great is great. We can make the argument for days Lochte has the ability and the drive to be Great (capital 'G') but the talking heads at Swimmingworld do a better job.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aKi5a2aoV_o

    We agree with Melissa, the depth of talent is immeasurable and there should be room for everyone to get some love. Good look to everyone, should be fun!

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  7. Melissa, I was mostly talking about how Phelps tends to swim faster in-season times than Lochte. Lochte tends to drop more at the end of the season. I completely disagree that Phelps is still in a class by himself. After today, I don't even know if Phelps is even in the class with Lochte right now. We still need to see how he does in finals. In the 200 free, Lochte we can expect to drop time (win maybe), but Phelps won't have that opportunity. We'll see.

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  8. Ouch! Tough prelims this morning for some of the swimmers. LC will do that to you, I guess. David, the "class by himself" I was referring to was Phelps' winning 14 Olympic Gold medals and his long tenure at the top of the sport, not his more recent lackluster performances. Clearly he's not "invincible"...don't think I even felt that way for Beijing. Having read some comments to a recent SN article I was thinking more big picture with my "class by himself" comment than just with regard to last season or this one. And saying that Phelps is in a class by himself with his Olympic achievements doesn't detract at all from what Lochte has shown us since Nationals. I wholeheartedly agree that he's the best U.S. swimmer right now. And I hope that Phelps can step up his game to compete with Ryan heading into Worlds this summer. @Reezy Nation ~ yes, indeed! Here's hoping everyone will get some love this weekend :)

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  9. Agreed, Phelps maybe struggling at the moment but his achievements overall put him in a class of his own. Lochte at the moment has one individual Olympic gold to his name, he is just making this happen for himself right now, and that's great. But Phelps is still the greatest of all time.

    I think he has a good shot at winning the 100 back like you said Melissa, he's seeded first!

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