After
I spent more than an hour struggling to get my live online video to work – only
to find all the fast heats shown live on NBC – I noticed one key problem with
the pool. The lanes are numbered backwards. From behind the blocks, usually
lane one is to the right and lane eight to the left. Of course, the wrong-side
driving Brits numbered the lanes with one at the left and eight at the right,
which they also did at the World Short Course Championships in Manchester four
years ago.
Fireworks
went down instantly in the men’s 400 IM, the very first event, when Kosuke
Hagano set an Asian record of 4:10.01. Hagano had earned the third seed in the
event headed into the Olympics, but no one expected to see him in lane four for
the final. In the next heat, Michael Phelps did just what he needed to do to
win his heat – but almost not enough to make the final. Phelps touched 0.07
ahead of Laszlo Cseh for the third and fourth-best times at that point. No one
expected, though, that five men would beat Phelps’ 4:13.33 in the final heat.
Ryan
Lochte led the majority of his heat until he let up at the very end, and Chad
Le Clos took the win and the overall second seed behind Hagano. Lochte ended up
third overall, while Thomas Fraser-Holmes, Luca Marin, and Yuya Horihata all
ended up getting under Phelps’ time. Phelps, then, ended up eighth, and Cseh
found himself shockingly locked out. America, evidently, found that result
shocking too, when four of the top ten trends on Twitter included “Michael
Phelps,” “Ryan Lochte,” “400m IM,” and “Cseh.”
Lochte
and Phelps both made the final; nothing has changed in my predictions, aside
from Cseh. With the reversed lanes, Phelps will have a clear view of Lochte and
the rest of the field as he churns for home tonight, and I expect a big swim
from the outside. I don’t know how much faster anyone than the two Americans
can swim, but Hagano has certainly done enough to prove that he can win a
bronze medal and most likely swim under 4:10 tonight.
In
my blog yesterday, I said that prelims could be telling in the women’s 100 fly.
Dana Vollmer broke the American record with a 56.25, beating the entire field
by a full second. She looks unstoppable, even with Sarah Sjostrom and Alicia
Coutts looming in the background. Vollmer showed at Trials that she has the
speed that no one can match, and she proved this morning that she can hold that
pace as well. Look for more fireworks tonight; world record in the cards maybe?
Up
next we saw the men’s 400 free, an event that turned out… wacky. Each heat got
much faster than the previous, starting with Ryan Cochrane winning the first
seeded heat in 3:47.26. Next, four swimmers beat that time with defending World
and Olympic champ Park Tae-Hwan leading the way before he was shockingly DQ’ed
for a false start. Finally, the last heat saw four of the top five times in the
morning, with world-leader Sun Yang and American Peter Vanderkaay getting under
3:46.
Without
Park in the field, Sun goes into the final as a heavy favorite for gold, and
Vanderkaay’s medal chances have improved drastically with Park and world
record-holder Paul Biedermann out of the field. Really, though, any of the
eight swimmers could win a medal. Watch for Brit David Carry in the final as he
looks to energize a packed home crowd tonight and use that energy to chase a
medal.
Park
and the South Korean swimming federation have reportedly appealed the DQ, and
the FINA bureau will meet later today to decide Park’s fate. If Park makes the
final, Cochrane finishes ninth for the second-straight Olympics, and Park has a
real shot at gold. After all, he did beat Sun Yang at Worlds last year from
lane one. Basically, we won’t know anything about this race until we have a
final word on Park.
The
women’s 400 IM saw two textile best times and one rousing wake-up call. First,
Yi Shiwen took one one-hundredth off Elizabeth Beisel’s top time from Trials
with a 4:31.73, but then Beisel came right back in the final heat with a
4:31.68. Beisel clearly looked less fatigued than Yi this morning after the
race and came home much stronger. She remains my pick for gold.
Between
those swims, though, Hannah Miley battled Caitlin Leverenz and Stephanie Rice
in what turned out to be the slowest of the seeded heats. The crowd went nuts
for Miley; even over my computer’s video feed, I could hear the huge roars from
a not-full crowd for the Scottish contender. Miley will swim from lane seven
tonight, but that crowd could propel her to a top-three finish or even gold.
Outside smoke could be a theme, actually, as defending Olympic champ Stephanie
Rice will swim from lane one. Remember, Kirsty Coventry won silver from lane
one four years ago.
12
men broke 1:00 in the men’s 100 breast. 14 men all finished within a half
second in prelims this morning. Australia bookends that pack, as Christian
Sprenger led the way in 59.68, while world record-holder Brenton Rickard took
14th in 1:00.07. Remember how I said medal contenders needed to make
a statement in prelims? Well so much for that. Everyone in the semi-finals,
even the trailing Brazilians who took 15th and 16th, have
a shot at the final.
All
16 need to swim their own race focus on the little details like turns and
finishes; that will decide who makes the final. Cameron van der Burgh, for
example, may not want to go out in 27.29 like he did in prelims. Yes, that
ranks third in the world for the 50 breast. More than a bodylength in front of
Brendan Hansen at halfway, van der Burgh ended up finishing sixth at 59.79.
That time probably won’t make the final.
Finally,
we’ve got the women’s 400 free relay. None of the big three – U.S., Australia,
and the Netherlands – showed all their cards this morning. The Dutch have just
Ranomi Kromowidjojo to add to their finals line-up, but Femke Heemskerk and
Marleen Veldhuis took it easy this morning. For the Aussies, Brittany Elmslie
put up a blazing 53.41, while 2008 silver medalist Libby Trickett anchored in
54.06. Elmslie will join Cate Campbell, Melanie Schlanger, and either Trickett
or Alicia Coutts tonight.
The
Americans started off fast with Lia Neal’s impressive 54.15. Amanda Weir split
54.37, followed by Natalie Coughlin’s 53.93 and Allison Schmitt’s 54.08. Who
will swim tonight with Jessica Hardy and Missy Franklin? No idea! Dana Vollmer
could be in the mix as well after her 100 fly exploits earlier. Whoever the
U.S. coaches decide to swim, I think any of the big three could win. The Dutch
remain the favorites, but an off swim here or there throws the U.S. back into
it. As for Franklin, she will anchor the relay, and I think we’ll see something
really good.
Updated
Predictions:
Men’s
400 IM
1.
Ryan Lochte
2.
Michael Phelps
3.
Kosuke Hagano
Men’s
400 Free
1.
Sun Yang
2.
Peter Vanderkaay
3.
Gergo Kis
Women’s
400 IM
1.
Elizabeth Beisel
2.
Yi Shiwen
3.
Hannah Miley
Women’s
400 Free Relay
1.
Netherlands
2.
United States
3.
Australia
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