Sunday, August 1, 2010

DeSantis NOT THE SWIM GEEK's Predictions

Chris DeSantis laid down his Nationals predictions tonight that he thinks can score more points than mine, therefore earning him the rightful title of THE swim geek. Ok, Chris, we shall see. He has Lochte skipping the IMs because of his recent groin injuries, which is convenient, since I have Lochte swimming both IMs (but those predictions are coming tomorrow). He has Liz Pelton sweeping the women's backstrokes and Katie Hoff earning three National titles. Like John from the last post, he has Kim Vandenberg winning the 200 fly, Sean Mahoney making the team in the 200 breast, and Aaron Peirsol winning his bazillionth National title in the 100 back. I must admit, some of his picks make me feel very comfortable headed in.

All from his most recent blog on The Athlete Village:

If you haven't been following, let me catch you up. Earlier this week I threw down the gauntlet to someone who calls himself "The Swim Geek". I agreed to be part of his prediction contest on one condition- that if I beat him he would have to hand over the "Swim Geek" moniker to me to do with as I please. The following are my top 3 (and 6 for relay selection events) in the order I think they will finish. I am picking the events in the order that they appear on the psyche sheet:

Women's 100 fly:
1. Dana Vollmer
2. Christine Magnuson
3. Mary Mohler
I expect this to be closer than it looks based on times this summer between Magnuson and Vollmer. Mohler is a veteran and always in the mix.

Men's 400 Free
1. Peter Vanderkaay
2. Dan Madwed
3. Chad La Tourette
Sometimes, swimming is very predictable. I'm going straight chalk in this event. Madwed has been laying low but I expect him to pull through here.

Women's 200 IM:
1. Ariana Kukors
2. Katie Hoff
3. Julia Smit
Hoff makes a nice comeback but Kukors has the confidence to keep her off the top now.

Men's 100 Breast:
1. Mark Gangloff
2. Eric Shanteau
3. Scott Spann
Very unpredictable event. Flipped a coin for the top two.

Women's 400 Free:
1. Katie Hoff
2. Allison Schmitt
3. Kate Ziegler
Ziegler makes it two on the comeback train with Hoff

Men's 400 IM:
1. Tyler Clary
2. Robert Margalis
3. Todd Patrick
Here's where things get interesting. My bet is Lochte won't risk injuring anything to swim this, which makes it wide open. Clary and Margalis are safe picks to pick up the slack. Patrick is the best of the rest

Women's 100 Back:
1. Elizabeth Pelton
2. Natalie Coughlin
3. Rachel Bootmsa
Youth is served in the 100 back. It does feel wrong to put Coughlin

Men's 200 free
1. Michael Phelps
2. Peter Vanderkaay
3. Ryan Lochte
4. Dave Walters
5. Ricky Berens
6. Charlie Houchin
And Lochte is on the team and can swim IMs if he gets healthy.

Men's 100 Back
1. Aaron Peirsol
2. Matt Grevers
3. Nick Thoman
Can't pick against Aaron.

Women's 200 Free:
1. Katie Hoff
2. Allison Schmitt
3. Dana Vollmer
4. Ariana Kukors
5. Dagny Knutson
6. Missy Franklin.
Hoff train still rolling

Men's 200 Fly:
1. Michael Phelps
2. Tyler Clary
3. Mark Dylla
Phelps' most guaranteed event win

Women's 100 Breast:
1. Rebecca Soni
2. Jessica Hardy
3. Megan Jendrick
Hardy will make this closer than it looks right now but Soni is the best breaststroker in the world.

Men's 100 fly:
1. Michael Phelps
2. Tyler McGill
3. Thomas Shields
Somebody else thinks that David Russell will be the third man here. I couldn't pick him- i'm too close

Women's 50 Free:
1. Jessica Hardy
2. Kara Lynn Joyce
3. Lara Jackson
Kara Lynn Joyce has been swimming much better after somewhat of an off last two years.

Men's 50 Free:
1. Josh Schneider
2. Cullen Jones
3. Nathan Adrian
I'm not going to be one of those dumb "bloggers" picking against Schneider this time

Women's 400 IM:
1. Katie Hoff
2. Ariana Kukors
3. Elizabeth Beisel
Changed order on this one so many times. Beisel could win

Men's 100 free
1. Nathan Adrian
2. Garret Weber Gale
3. Dave Walters
4. Matt Grevers
5. Jimmy Feigen
6. Jason Lezak
Very hard event to pick because there is a lot of volatility after Adrian

Women's 200 Fly:
1. Kim Vandenberg
2. Kathleen Hersey
3. Mary Mohler
Vandenberg is a riskier pick but has looked sharp and was a top swimmer in this event pre-suit.

Men's 200 IM:
1. Michael Phelps
2. Eric Shanteau
3. Tyler Clary
What is there to say?

Women's 200 Back:
1. Elizabeth Pelton
2. Elizabeth Beisel
3. Margaret Hoelzer
Pelton flip flops with Beisel from last summer's selection meet

Women's 800 Free:
1. Kate Ziegler
2. Chloe Sutton
3. Kelsey Ditto
Sutton gets herself on the squad.

Women 100 Free:
1. Dana Vollmer
2. Kara Lynn Joyce
3. Jessica Hardy
4. Natalie Coughlin
5. Christine Magnuson
6. Amanda Weir

Men's 200 Back:
1. Ryan Lochte
2. Aaron Peirsol
3. Tyler Clary
Lochte, without the IMs to worry about, gets the better of this one.

Women's 200 Breast:
1. Rebecca Soni
2. Keri Hehn
3. Megan Jendrick
A veteran crew of breaststrokers.

Men's 200 Breast:
1. Eric Shanteau
2. Sean Mahoney
3. Scott Spann
Shanteau may be the mythical world champion this summer

Men's 1500 free:
1. Peter Vanderkaay
2. Chad La Tourette
3. Jackson Wilcox
How about some chalk in the 1500?

And thats it. Wish me good luck- not that I need it. (Editor's note: Yes you do.)


  1. Didn't want to register/login to comment at the Athlete Village, but I noticed the comment about bonus points if someone picks Phelps to lose in an event. Just something to consider: he said a couple days ago that his freestyle stroke feels the worst it has in his entire career. " he's not pulling enough water" A very brave or very foolish person might pick PVK or one of the Texas boys to win the 200 free because of Phelps' training deficit and those recent comments.

  2. Very true, but that seems like a common theme on taper. Takes time for things to come together. Knowing Phelps' (and Bowman's) track record, I think it will come together when it needs to, and Phelps will take the win, probably sub-1:45, which would mean the top time in the world so far this year. I think PVK, Lochte, and Berens could all be possible challengers, maybe even Dwyer, and Dave Walters will certainly take it out with him.

    Unfortunately, I am not very brave when it comes to making picks (foolish, occasionally), so I'll stay with Phelps winning. Any brave men out there? Picking a correct winner is worth 9 big points!