Sunday, August 15, 2010

Predictions Round Two

After I finished a disappointing third in the Nationals Predictions contest, I have decided to host another Predictions contest for Pan Pacs! Same format as Nationals, just pick the top three finishers in each event, including relays and the open water 10k. Make sure you get those predictions to me by Wednesday, August 18 at 12 midnight pacific time. You can email them to me (, or contact me via blog comment, Twitter, or Facebook. I need a first name to go with the predictions, as well as a short blurb to go along with them. Scoring will be the same as Nationals: 9-5-2 points for correctly picking the top three places, with one point if you pick a swimmer to finish in the top three, but wrong place. Don't forget to use the psych sheet to help, and remember that only two individual swimmers (and one relay) per country can swim in finals in each event.

I'll post my predictions on Tuesday night, along with some of the strategies I used to make them. I'll be coming back with more preview and analysis, before and during the meet.


  1. Hi there,
    Skimmed through the psych sheet & saw Phelps in the 400 IM & 100 free...does this mean he's gonna swim these 2 events at Pan Pacs??? Can anyone confirm it for me, please? If it's true, I will go ahead & book my flight ticket to Irvine immediately.

    Thanks from a big Phelps phan,
    Brendon Hipocoki

  2. I also did a double take upon noticing that Phelps is apparently entered in the 400 IM (and to a less surprising extent, the 100 Free)?! Though I reckon we won't be seeing his response to Biedermann's 1:45.47 200 Free challenge (from Euros), at least @ Pan Pacs...oh well...

    Another surprise is Steph Rice's being listed in both IMs, as I had heard she was taking it easy and saving the IMs for the Commies? Well hope those rumours are incorrect, as I'd luv to see her race against Kukors!

    btw looks like these swimmers have signed up for a pretty busy schedule in the competition...7 to 8 individual events over 4 days, and that's not counting prelims or relays!

    Tyler Clary (8) - 200 Free, 100 Back, 200 Fly, 400 IM, 400 Free, 100 Fly, 200 Back, 200 IM

    Ryan Lohte (7) - 200 Free, 100 Back, 100 Free, 400 IM, 400 Free, 200 Back, 200 IM
    Steph Rice (7) - 50 Fly, 100 Free, 400 IM, 50 Back, 100 Fly, 200 IM, 50 Free

    And to a lesser extent (amongst the American women):
    Rachel Bootsma (6) - 50 Fly, 100 Back, 100 Free, 50 Back, 100 Fly, 50 Free

    Missy Franklin & Liz Pelton (5) - 100 Back, 100 Free, 50 Back, 200 Back, 200 IM
    Ariana Kukors (5) - 50 Fly, 200 Free, 400 IM, 50 Breast, 200 IM
    Jessica Hardy (5) - 50 Fly, 100 Free, 100 Breast, 50 Breast, 50 Free
    Chloe Sutton (5) - 200 Free, 800 Free, 400 Free, 1500 Free, 10K

    Average seems to be 3-4 events:
    Katie Hoff (4) - 200 Free, 100 Free, 400 Free, 200 IM
    Dana Vollmer (4) - 200 Free, 100 Free, 100 Fly, 50 Free
    Christine Magnuson (4) - 50 Fly, 100 Free, 100 Fly, 50 Free
    Elizabeth Beisel (4) - 100 Back, 400 IM, 200 Back, 200 IM
    Morgan Scroggy (4) - 200 Free, 100 Free, 200 Back, 200 IM
    Kathleen Hersey (4) - 200 Fly, 100 Free, 100 Fly, 200 IM

  3. The Steph Rice injury rumors I am assuming are true, and I am predicting assuming so. As for Phelps, I doubt he actually swims the 400 IM. Maybe next season if he's in better shape and in prep for a 400 IM at Trials, but not now. I do expect him in the 100 free, pretty much because the schedule is perfectly set up for a run at the 100 free here. Assuming he swims an individual event on day two (which I'm sure he will), I doubt he'll be able to take a run at Biedermann's time on the relay lead-off that night.

    As for the scheduling: not sure Clary realized how short a meet it was. I'd guess his main goal is to improve on his terrible Nationals swim in the 400 IM and try to make the Worlds team in another event or two (200 fly?). Lochte always over-enters; he'll definitely do 400IM/200 back/200 IM, and they 200 free and/or 100 back (both on day 1) and maybe the 100 free before the 200 IM on day 2. No 400 free.

  4. What's the story on the relays? Several countries have entered B teams, and Chloe Sutton has confirmed she will be on one of those, likely the 800 free relay.

    Just wondering since there are no morning heats scheduled for any of the relays, and a country may not have more than 1 relay team in the A final...

  5. Well I can see the Womens Relay teams possibly falling in the following configurations...

    Though could be well off the mark (especially re the Medley relay), really will depend on how they all perform in their individual events!

    4x200 FREE
    A: Vollmer/Scroggy/Hoff/Schmitt
    B: Franklin/Crippen/Kukors/Sutton
    (since #5-7 @ Nationals, Knutson/Tosky/Chenault, didn't make the Pan Pacs team)

    4x100 FREE
    A: Coughlin/Hardy/Joyce/Vollmer
    B: Franklin/Scroggy/Hoff/Weir

    4x100 MEDLEY
    A: Coughlin/Soni/Magnuson/Vollmer
    B: Franklin/Hardy/Hersey/Joyce

  6. Definitely possible. I think Liz Pelton will bounce back, which would put her on the medley but we'll see. I'd put Ziegler on over Crippen too.

  7. Good call on Liz Pelton. She didn't swim to her potential @ nationals (not fully rested? or mistimed her taper?) but I have a feeling she'll impress this week to make up for it!

    Other potential medley relay combos: put Dana Vollmer on the A fly leg as her fly has generally been stronger than her free this season at least up til recently and then slot Kara Lynn Joyce into the free anchor. B team can then have Pelton or Rachel Bootsma on back (giving others a chance to race since Missy will prob be in one or more of the other relays)...if Ann Chandler or Micah Lawrence improves markedly on their breast times then for variety put Magnuson or Hardy on fly followed by Weir or Hardy on free...

  8. Thanks guys for the replies. Just booked my flight tix & hotel for Pan Pacs. Am so excited & can't wait to see Phelps in the IMs....he's my most favorite IMer in this world!!!! Hope to have his autograph on my swim cap.

    Brendon Hipocoki

  9. Hey Brandon you should be in for a wicked time as David posted a link to the LA Times where Phelps basically confirmed he'll be going for the 400 IM! His rivalry with a currently "on fire" Lochte no doubt being a factor in him showing a renewed interest in this...